This Week in Petroleum Summary February 7th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Pump Prices are drifing in a narrow range, with not much upward pressure... yet! 

Overall...

Crude inventories rose +5.5M barrels; distillates down -3.2M barrels; gasoline down +3.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added distillates (diesel) to the chart. I had read a rather hysterical article about the impending distillate shortage, as distillates were down 5% from 5 year average... yada, yada. 

So yes, distillates are down -5.1% from historical 5 year average, but that five years includes that covid period, where consumption cratered and inventories skyrocketed. 

Discounting that period, the reading is -1.7%. Considering the refiners make more money from diesel than gasoline... I would expect refining operating capacity percent to rise. Given current crude mixes, this should keep gasoline prices in check, even if diesel rises slightly. 

We'll just have to wait and see. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 31st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption slightly above year ago, yet down very slightly from last week. Pump Prices are drifting higher.

The pump prices do remain down from this time last year.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +1.2M barrels; distillates down -2.5M barrels; gasoline up +1.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Everything seems to be quiet, even with the news about middle east, Ukraine, etc. I think the energy market has rebalanced.

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption down, which is likely expected... considering the wide spread winter weather. Additionally, it is possible that refinery operations were impacted as well. It would take a couple more weeks of data to tell the tale.

Prices do seem ready to rise, but still... more data required.

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -9.2M barrels; distillates down -1.4M barrels; gasoline up +4.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Not sure of the impact of weather on refining, consumption, etc. Time will tell, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Rather ho hum, imho. Gasoline onsumption continues in a rather narrow band, with pump prices staying fairly flat. 

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -2.5M barrels; distillates up +2.4M barrels; gasoline up +3.1M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Good news continues, but not sure how long that will last. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Consumption continues to edge up on a yearly basis, when  adjusting for inventory. Weekly, consumption has slid 2 consecutive weeks, similar to previous years. We'll need to see if seasonal patterns continue in the next couple of weeks... and beyond.

Pricing continues to remain stable...

The overall picture...

Crude inventories increased +1.3M barrels; distillates up +6.5M barrels; gasoline up +8M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Looks like good news, but will it continue?

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Consumption slid, although not sure if a downward trend is developing. Last year's data would indicate a downward direction for a couple more weeks. 

Pricing seems to be at a plateau, with very small movements in either direction.

The overall picture...

While crude inventories slipped (-5.5M barrels) from last week, the Gasoline and Distillate inventories rose by 10M barrels each. Even the SPR increased by 1M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

All is well, until things become unwell! 

That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-28-2023, per EIA.GOV

A quick summary of this week's report.

Consumption continues to edge upward, although pump prices seem to be in a narrow range. There does not seem to be an upward bias in these prices, with the potential of -5¢ drop, which includes diesel.

Overall...

For those interested the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

That's a wrap for this week.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-20-2023, per EIA.GOV

Another week, and another set of charts summarizing things from the Energy Information Administration...

Consumption of gasoline is easing upwards, although may slide after Christmas. The prices are below this time last year, but are likely to edge up following Christmas... just like last year. (They have edged up the past two days.)

Overall...

For those interested the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

That's a wrap for this week.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-13-2023, per EIA.GOV

Just some charts to summarize today's report...

Prices continue to fall and could challenge the December 23rd, 2022 low of $3.096... In fact it is more than possible, imho, as I would currently project $3.072.

But, I think we are nearer the bottom of the seasonal gasoline price dip. Maybe a good time to top off the tank, imho.

As for the overall summary...

Not sure what the ruckus is about, regarding that crude draw. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-6-2023, per EIA.GOV

Just some charts to summarize today's report...

Prices continue to fall and could challenge the December 23rd, 2022 low of $3.096... In fact it is more than possible, imho.

That's a wrap!

This Week in Petroleum Summary 11-29-2023, per EIA.GOV

Just some charts to summarize today's report...

Gasoline prices have continued to fall, BUT seem to be nearing an end, imho.

Overall, the inventory numbers gained across the board, including the SPR. 

Consumption of Gasoline is slipping, but still slightly above year ago levels. 

The drop in gasoline prices should drop the CPI to -0.3% month to month and +3.0% on the year. It is a seasonal thing.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 9-27-2023, per EIA.GOV

Gasoline prices (per AAA) fell from last report's $3.875, to $3.832. One year ago the price was $3.747, and was rising higher into Mid October's peak, then heading for the December low of $3.096.

Consumption edged down -2.5% from previous week and appears to be going into the fall season decline, with the year over year up just +0.7%. 

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks decreased -2.2M barrels, from last week, and is -4.5% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -1.6% below that adjusted 5 year average.

Distillates inventory rose +340K barrels; and Gasoline inventories eose +1027K barrels. Distillates (-10.2%,-1.5%) and Gasoline (-0.9%, -0.2%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR decreased -250K barrels this past week. Breaking a 7th consecutive week streak for increases, which were the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $93.72, compared to $90.27 (+3.8%), one week ago, and $81.24 one year ago (+15.4%).

Refinery slipped on a weekly basis, but remains above year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 873M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. That number increased by 12M barrels this past week. 

Gasoline exports/imports saw a net increase of 728K barrels this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 113.7M barrels being exported over imports.

Despite the surge in crude prices this week, domestic demand points towards pump prices drifting lower. However, that may be based on hope, rather than real time data.

This wraps up my publication of the weekly petroleum summary. I will continue to track, but not publish.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 9-20-2023, per EIA.GOV

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.848, to $3.875. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.674, but was at a low, before heading higher into Mid October's peak, then heading for the December low of $3.096.

Consumption edged down -1.8% from previous week and may be going into the fall season decline, even though the year over year is still up +2.9%. 

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks decreased -2.1M barrels, from last week, and is -3.9% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -1.1% below that adjusted 5 year average.

Distillates inventory fell -2.9M barrels; and Gasoline inventories fell 831K barrels. Distillates (-11.5%,-3.1%) and Gasoline (-1.4%, -0.9%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased another 600K barrels this past week. This is the 7th consecutive week for increases, which were the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $90.27, compared to $88.77 (+1.7%), one week ago, and $82.43 one year ago (+9.5%).

Refinery slipped on a weekly basis, but remains above year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 861M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. That number increased by 16M barrels this past week. 

Gasoline exports/imports saw a net increase of 4.4M barrels this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 113M barrels being exported over imports.

Despite the draw on gasoline inventory, which was almost entirely a result of exports, the decrease in nationwide consumption indicates pump prices are at or near peak and some relief should follow.

Diesel prices are still leaning towards edging upward at this time. 

All of this is my opinion and yours may differ.