A FEW CHARTS WITH SOME POLITICS - January 07, 2026

The crude inventories are in good shape for this time of year...

It should be noted that the total inventory of Petroleum and Petroleum products are at the highest since April, 2022.

Consumption is near year ago levels, with pricing slightly down. 

Am I the only one noticing that Venezuela crude and Urals crude is similar?

Am I the only one noticing how the same people saying Trump does nothing but lie, lie, lie, are in a rush to treat his every utterance as the Gospel? I guess irrational behavior would create such opposing views. 

I periodically watch a certain UK news station. It was a constant bombardment of the U.S. seizing an oil tanker in the North Atlantic... until is was announced the UK had participated. The is was all rah-rah for the UK military. 

Then is was all about whether the UK was now undertaking a more active role. Yet, it came out the UK vessel was not crewed by Royal Navy, but rather by merchant marines. So who will become more active.

Of course, internation law is bandied about, but there has been literally dozens, if not hundreds of violations of "international law" over the previous decades. 

If there is no one to enforce the law... is there really a law??

Millions of People

I kept hearing about millions of people protesting something today, but all the pictures seem to show significant less. Of course there are about 3 million people attending college football games on any given Saturday, in the fall.

3 Million is less than 1% of the U.S. population. Then there is the matter of how many millions protested and how many were actually virtue signaling.

There has been a lot of protests in my lifetime, some much bigger than today's. In reality... nothing changed then and you can bet nothing will change this time.

These are the same types claiming no King, while worshipping "Hamilton" as some sort of founder. I mean he was the guy that suggested a president for life, etc. 

Producer Price Index and some other opinions

The Producer Price Index was released this morning and indicated an upturn.

Note that I did not revise the December, 2024 final demand, as did the BLS. Yes, December was revised upward to 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142025.htm

The nervous nellies will scream inflation is roaring back. Maybe so, but it will not repeat the horrors of 2021~2022. How can I say that? Once you understand the causes, the answer becomes easy.

• After the covid shutdown and collapse of international trade, the shipping industry was in disarray, with containers to move goods... in all the wrong places.
• Retailers had significantly reduced inventories to meet the slowing demand.
• There was a rather large stimulus paid to American citizens, on top of some previous payouts.
• The covid vaccine was becoming rapidly available.
• The American people were told that it was now safe to resume normal activities.
• An impending west coast port strike for mid 2022, which did not materialize.

Newly freed from fear Americans started immediately spending that stimulus money, which boosted retail sales by 10% in the first month.  The retailers, started ramping up orders significantly to restock the shelves, which exposed the problems with the shipping containers. This was compounded by retailers, pulling orders well ahead to heavily stock up... prior to the threatened west coast port strike. 

The shipping industry has finally recovered, the retail inventories have reached stability, and there are no strike threats on the horizon. There was consideration of a possible port strike on the east coast and gulf, which did increase orders, as well as impending tariff expectations, which also increased orders. 

The port strike is in the rear view mirror and the shipping industry sailed through it easily. The tariff question is still to be answered.

As a further note on retail sales... when adjusted for inflation, they have remained at that March, 2021 level. That will likely be the indicator of future demand... or lack thereof. 

Tariffs would likely weaken demand, so the expectation of massive inflation due to tariffs... not so much.

A Few Reports and some opinions... of course!

The CPI came out today and now that Trump is in office, it has suddenly turned terrible. Nevermind, it is for January, so remarkable for just 11 days in office. /s

The media's memory is a bit wacky, with claims that it has suddenly shifted upward, even though the lowest annual rate since February 2021 was this past September.

A trip down memory lane...

The real earnings report has been ignored and for good reason... weekly wages, when adjusted for inflation have now fallen back to June, 2024 levels. That's seven months, since weekly wages adjusted for inflation have been this low.

Note: The BLS reports both CPI and Real Earnings.

As for the energy report from the EIA, not much in extreme changes. Pump prices will likely rise, but should be noted... still below year ago levels. Of course, the rise will become political, as everything else.

Tariffs... A lot of talk about the damaging effects of tariffs, but the whole matter of FTZ status of dozens of companies have been ignored. A FTZ or "Foreign Trade Zone" status, means a company pays no tariffs, until the end product is sold to the public. There are many large and small companies with FTZs, which include energy companies (refineries, etc.) and automobile companies with their component assemblies. 

Once you understand the magnitude of FTZs, then you should consider that tariffs have long been in existence. 

Another serious argument put forth by many... is the Smoot Hawley act devastated the U.S. Economy during the depression, or at least made it worse. Not sure correlation was causation for this period. It does give the trade aficionados a talking point.

Yes, tariffs will cause inflation. However, off shoring of goods was a primary reason for the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. We basically beat inflation, by utilizing cheap foreign labor. We cannot hope to restore the middle class, without reshoring. 

It really is that simple. 

The Press has a dilemma.

Apparently, some of the left of center media people are noting that Trump tells what he thinks when answering their question.

The press is so used to the evasive non answers, that Trump speaking freely and off the cuff has them concerned.

Previously, the press were responsible for interpreting what the politician's doublespeak meant. Usually by citing some anonymous "source" while spouting endlessly on air. Which begs the question... are those sources real and/or are they honest.

Think about it, the news media has a much reduced role, or even need... in this environment. 

Those flashy press jobs don't look as important as those flashy media types have projected.  

1-31-2025 Week In Review

Energy

Crude inventory up a bit, with distillates down, and gasoline up. SPR up a bit. Price at the pump has barely budged and should continue in a narrow band.

Politics

It is the same old, same old. It was funny, but is now getting boring. Example: When there is a school shooting, we know what is said immediately by both sides. A plane crash provides us with the same dynamics, but in opposite polarization. 

Unfortunately, there is a history regarding this issue, dating back to the Obama presidency, which is in the courts since 2014 and is still not resolved, as of 1-29-2025.

BRIGIDA v. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

GDP

Annualized at 2.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditures were up dramatically.

While the 4th quarter jump in personal consumption expenditures is not entirely unheard of... I do wonder about the enormous jump in this past quarter and whether I am able to believe it... which I consider a bit shady. 

One possible explanation of this large jump is people buying ahead of potential tariffs. This is solely based on social media posts, which have people talking about buying stuff now, rather than later. Of course, these are social media posts, which are about as believable as... the GDP numbers.

Of course, if those posts are indicative, then the later buying will not take place and personal consumption expenditures will slow considerably in 1Q2025. Of course, politics will come into sharp view. Or rather sharper view.

PCE Report

Considering the target is 2.0%, The FED is okay with a number above that, as they left rates unchanged. Clearly there is concern for inflation, but there are some troubling signs... regarding the economy.

The Snow has almost melted.

Almost, as it has been 27 days and the temps are expected to be near 60 for a couple of days, and above freezing til the 9th.

End of the line

I am getting so bored with the current news cycle. I think it is time to simply blog, when there is something of interest.

Also, I have had adsense running and think it is time to remove adsense from this blog. I am the only person interested, so it makes more sense to cut adsense. My reasons for adsense were mostly to understand the audience, but since there isn't any... there you go. Besides, there never was any meaningful knowledge to gain, that was not already present under stats. 

Also, I always checked from my home screen and never really looked at the end product on line. I recently checked and clearly, I do not know how to properly place ads. It is rather embarrassing.

Adios!

1-24-2025 Week In Review

Current Rage...

I probably should stop watching UK's Sky News. I was watching it during the swearing in and their announcer said something that just hit me the very, very wrong way. For the record, it was not something derogatory about Trump, which is typical of this outfit, while ignoring anything negative about you know who. 

When did it start...

I am not a historical scholar and would not suggest that political rancor never existed. However, the "butthurt" of losing parties seems to have dialed up in my lifetime. Actually, I would suggest it started with the election of Clinton. 

There was a lot of rumors, etc. during his tenure. With the 2000 election, the opposite party seemed to have some butthurt. The election of Obama gave us the "tea party" and then there was the first term of Trump. Biden followed and now with Trump again. 

Both sides seem to have developed severe cases of "butthurt", imo. I don't see it ending any time soon, either.

Misinformation abounds in unlikely places.

"FBI" agent that took down Capone. That was in a crossword puzzle. Ness was a Prohibition Bureau agent, and the FBI was not in place until 1935, although it was preceded by the Bureau of Investigation. The Prohibition Bureau was originally in the Treasury and absorbed by the BOI (Justice) in early 1933. Late 1933, saw it returned to the Treasury and eventually became the ATF of today.

Make up your damn  minds...

The media kept saying all he does is lie, lie, and lie. Now they are complaining because he actually told the truth. Make up your damn minds... or at least stop losing your minds.

ENERGY

A lot of racket, but no serious movement, imho. Pump prices are set to slightly rise, for both gasoline and diesel. There was a lot of talk about a "draw", which did bring down the total about 3.9M barrels, but the total is still 24.2M barrels ahead of last year on this date.

Birthright citizenship...

Remember this... "so long as they are permitted by the United States to reside here."

United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898) Chinese persons, born out of the United States, remaining subjects of the Emperor of China, and not having become citizens of the United States, are entitled to the protection of, and owe allegiance to, the United States so long as they are permitted by the United States to reside here, and are " subject to the jurisdiction thereof" in the same sense as all other aliens residing in the United States.

If you can't understand that part, then you may be shocked with the final outcome of this. The recent judge's ruling is merely the first salvo, imo.

Weather

Finally, the temps are set to moderate, which means above freezing. Maybe it will last long enough for all this snow to melt. 

That's all for this round.

1-10-2025 Week In Review

Weather

Yep, been a fun few days, as we received about 6" of snow, then about 3/4" of ice, then another 3" of snow. I am no longer able to clear the driveway, so hoping nothing in the way of an emergency.

I have no real reason to leave the house, although the long range forecast shows no warming temperatures to thaw that mess. Another 2" predicted for this weekend, below freezing temps through the following weekend, with a possible big snow of 6"+. 

Groceries might be needed.

Politics

You already know the U.S. news, but what about abroad?

U.K. news media is all a-flutter over Musk tweets. This forced the Labour government to respond. Apparently, there was a grooming gang problem back a decade ago, which resulted in several inquiries, which further resulted in recommendations. 

A decade later, after the Musk tweets, it seems the Labour government has decided to begin implementing some of those recommendations. 

Sir Keir Starmer was the head of the Crown Prosecution Services back in the day, and is now Prime Minister. He claims Musk is promoting a right wing attack. Strange that nothing was implemented until Musk got to tweeting. 

So successive U.K. governments did nothing and it is Musk's fault for tweeting about it. Hard to imagine where the issue would be without the tweets. 

A Sky News (UK) reporter, after news of META dropping "fact-checking" and going to community notes... asked the question of what is the future of liberal fact-checking. The irony of such a question.

I watch Sky News on a regular basis and the opinion I have is... The U.K. has much bigger problems than Musk tweeting.

Back to the U.S., and is the media hyperventilating like they did... 8 years ago? It does seem that way to me. 

Energy

Not much to say, although pump prices likely to rise a nickel in the coming week. Same for diesel.

and the rest...

Fires. Plentiful dry vegetation, high winds, and homes built of largely dry timber. Just takes a spark.

Jobs report. Looks really good, but remember all the revisions the past year. I'll take a wait and see.

Zombie companies. These are companies that seemingly were profitable, but largely due to low interest bonds and rates. Those days are gone and we will likely see some corporate profits suffer as these bonds are rolled over.

Trump jail. He's a convicted felon without having to spend time in jail, or on parole, etc. Almost as good as a pardon. Speaking of which... wonder who else is about to get pardoned. 

Greenland. This suddenly got interesting.

Changing direction on blogging

A new year is upon us, and just some thoughts.

I am changing direction, as I will restrict my blog entries on a variety of topics. I still track those areas, but find it a bit time consuming to post. Besides, it seems to have cluttered up the site, with no meaningful outside interest.

Thus returning to my thoughts and opinions. Which could be about anything. 

The presidential election is over, but politics is never over, so there is that.

The economy is something of interest, which includes several items and becomes political.

International events might arise, which are also political in nature. 

Frankly, about everything that happens anymore... becomes political, whether immigration, crime, etc.

I could summarize what transpired in 2024, but you should already know. What none of us know... is what impact it will have on 2025.

We have the debt ceiling, a new congress, a new president, wars cropping up everywhere, and the list goes on and on. 

After the past few years of revisions to various previous month's economic numbers, which resulted in more positive news on date of release... we will likely start to see the truth going forward. I am suggesting the results have not been as positive as the media has proclaimed. 

Energy Prices

Futures indicate that gasoline pump prices ranging from -4.2¢~+4.4¢ over the near term. 

Port Strike

It strongly appears that the ILA v USMX strike will be postponed for 3 1/2 months, as that would be the most beneficial for both sides. 

Tariffs

Has anyone been watching the foreign exchange market? The Yen and Yuan have been weakening against the dollar. So have a host of other currencies. 

Woohoo! The strong dollar fans are overlooking what caused offshoring and will inhibit reshoring. Our trading partners are not converting all those sales in dollars... back to their native currencies. No, they are purchasing Dollarized assets, such as bonds, financials, properties, etc. 

Basically... propping up the dollar. We have not learned a darn thing over the past 40 years, as to why the early 80s inflation was brought down so low, until the great covid shipping snafu. 

That's it for this week.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -8.8¢, or -2.88%. Days supply fell to 25.2. For perspective... last year was 25.7 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -4.2M barrels; Distillates down -1.7M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -12.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +260K barrels.

The total products is still +16.2M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $16.89, to $16.68. Gasoline rose to $7.74, from last week's $7.68. Distillates fell to $8.94, compared to last week's $9.22. Per barrel of diesel is $29.60; Per barrel of gasoline is $17.02. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.7¢ ~ +1.9¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

I will continue to track the Energy Reports for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +1.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -3.2¢, or -1.2%. Days supply fell to 25.4. For perspective... last year was 26.5 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -934K barrels; Distillates down -3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -2.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +519K barrels.

The total products is still +11.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.11, to $16.89. Gasoline fell to $7.67, from last week's $8.38. Distillates rose to $9.22, compared to last week's $8.72. Per barrel of diesel is $30.53; Per barrel of gasoline is $16.86. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -.02¢ ~ +4.2¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 4 of 4 and conclusion

 It would appear the final counts for the election are now completed.

There were 1,963,624 fewer votes than in 2020, although still substantially higher than 2016.

At this point, most have moved on to projecting candidates for 2028, etc. I keep hearing about Harris, but cannot fathom how she could be perceived as a viable candidate, either for governor of California in 2026. or the 2028 presidential cycle.

It just does not compute in my head, how a "Californian" could so underperform Biden in California against Trump. There are other signs on the national level as well. 

However, a lot can change in a short time. The past 7 months is a strong indication of how much things can change.

[In any case, I will now move on from this election, and conclude this series of blogposts.]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -1.3¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -13.3¢, or -4.2%. Days supply rose to 25.5. For perspective... last year was 26.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.4M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +5.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -195K barrels, with the SPR rising +724K barrels.

The total products is still +17.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.41, to $17.11. Gasoline fell to $8.38, from last week's $8.73. Distillates slid to $8.72, compared to last week's $8.68.

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -3.1¢ ~ +4.4¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

We may be nearing the end of downward pressures on gasoline. Just have to wait and see.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -0.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -20.9¢, or -6.4%. Days supply rose to 24.5. For perspective... last year was 26.2 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -5.1M barrels; Distillates up +3.4M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -3.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +7.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.96, to $17.41. Gasoline fell to $8.73, from last week's $8.76. Distillates slid to $8.68, compared to last week's $9.21.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.4¢ ~ +3.6¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.7¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -17.7¢, or -5.4%. Days supply rose to 24.2. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.8M barrels; Distillates up +416K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -625K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.2M barrels.

The total products is still +9.8M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $18.64, to $17.96. Gasoline fell to $8.76, from last week's $9.46. Distillates rose to $9.21, compared to last week's $9.18.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.9¢ ~ +3.1¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 3 of ?

We now have about 99.5% of the votes tabulated. 

The final tally will not change the electoral outcome, but the final Trump tally will be near 49.88% or approximately 187,000 below a majority vote.

Trump will likely end up about 2.9M votes ahead of 2020, while Harris will likely come in with 6.6M less than Biden's 2020 numbers.

A lot has been made of how much Trump outperformed Biden's 2020 percentages in various minorities and demographic groups. 

I am trying to find some vote totals of these groups. 

Example: if 10 people of a certain group voted in 2020, and 8 voted for Biden and 2 voted for Trump, then Trump received 20%. However, if 8 voted in 2024, and 6 for Harris and 2 for Trump... Trump outperformed the 2020 percent with 25% in 2024.

So I tend to question those percentages, given the anticipated 4.0M less votes in 2024. My opinion would be the Harris candidacy was not well received and it is possible voters saw no real reason to bother with voting.

A couple of states...

The numbers for 2024, are projected, based on current data. It is clear that Trump had no major gains, while a dramatic drop off for Harris... compared to Biden's 2020 numbers.

There are some that have already turned their attention to 2028. There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge, between then and now... such as economy, wars, and such.

21 months ago, I previewed the 2024 election, with this.

A lot changed in that 21 months. Of course we all know about the Biden drop out, but most of the names listed in that article have fallen by the wayside. The Democrats have few remaining serious contenders for 2028, and the Republicans have only a couple. 

Sure, you might wish to put forth one or two on the democrat side as contenders, but it won't happen. The republicans on that list... boil down to a couple potentials. 

I am hard pressed to see any additions to the 2028 prospects, while the Republicans have added a couple and will be the higher visibility party for awhile.

Once again... a lot of water to flow under that bridge.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.8¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -24.2¢, or -7.3%. Days supply rose to 23.4. For perspective... last year was 24.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +545K barrels; Distillates down -114K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose -4.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.95, to $18.64. Gasoline rose to $9.46, from last week's $8.99. Distillates rose to $9.18, compared to last week's $8.96.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. +2.3¢ ~ +3.6¢. Supposedly, this will be blamed on missiles in Ukraine, causing price of oil to move.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

My electricity bills over time (November, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI. 

The October bill came in much higher than last year. +16.2% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is up +0.4% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy, as it is below other cost of living factors.

[EDIT: 12-17-24. While I will continue to track the my electricity usage for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of said usage going forward]

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 2 of ?

Just updated the projections for final vote tally.

Still projecting Trump to slip just below the 50% + 1 vote majority. Currently at -41,686. Of the remaining projected votes... 91.1% are in typical Democrat states, with 56.4% in California.

The final vote tally will likely be -3.8 million of 2020 final tally.

Reviewing the states, compared to 2020. (less is in RED)

It would seem that voter turnout may have been a factor in the toss-up states. While there are a few "red" states with lower turnout, the eye catching numbers of some "blue" states... does leave some questions, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 15th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.5¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.1¢, or -7.8%. Days supply slid to 22.9. For perspective... last year was 24.0 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +2.1M barrels; Distillates down -199K barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -4.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -5.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +81K barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.00, to $17.95. Gasoline rose to $8.99, from last week's $8.44. Distillates rose to $8.96, compared to last week's $8.57.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.7¢ ~ +3.0¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.