The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-02-2026)

A mixed bag, with crude falling, as well as gasoline, jet fuel and SPR. Distillate edged up, as well as Jet fuel. 

Gasoline consumption is edging downward on a 4 week moving average. -2.8% compared to year ago levels, and -0.5% on the week to week 4 week average.

Pump prices for gasoline are staying in a somewhat narrow band. However diesel prices could very well break through all time highs, set in June of 2022. $6+ for a national average is certainly within the realm of possibility, with California diesel possibly topping $8 in the near future. 

So some fun facts. The U.S. consumer uses about 1/3 of global gasoline consumption, while the U.S. refiners produce about 1/6 of global diesel product, after export the U.S. consumes... about 12% of global diesel products. 

U.S. refiners are operating at near record levels, to meet the demand. The global demand of diesel... is driving the price upward, at an astonishing pace. Despite refining about half as much diesel, as gasoline, the refiners are making 70% more on that diesel. 

One would think the refiners might wish to make even more, by tweaking the process to produce more diesel. While that is theoretically possible, it would also cause gasoline stocks to slip, thereby driving up gasoline pump prices, which is more politically visible. 

So while there is a bit of stability in gasoline prices, the diesel market will be allowed to escalate prices until, it becomes politically visible. However the majority of the public will focus on the pump price directly in their face and a minority will possibly virtue signal their indigation of diesel prices.

What I am saying is... diesel prices are set to rise another 82¢ a gallon from today's price, while gasoline will likely stay in their current range.

Feel free to bookmark and come back in a few weeks, to see how accurate I am, or point out my inaccuracies. 

Just when will the debt overwhelm the system?

Current national debt...

A brief history (simplified)...

We went off the so called gold standard in the 60s and early 70s. We began trading in dollar assets. We imported a bit more than we exported in the 70s, largely due to oil imports. The dollar fell in value, which prompted the circulation of more dollars and thereby inflation. 

That led to the so called eurobonds (not to be confused with Euro Bonds). In this case the eurobonds were principally in deutschmarks, meaning the debt was to be repaid in deutschmarks, regardless of the trading value with the dollar... which was weakening against these eurobonds.

Famously, Paul Volcker dramatically raised interest rates, which propelled bond yields upward, with the resultant demand in dollar based debt instruments.

The era of the strong dollar, increased purchasing power for imported goods, which escalated. Normally, the profits from these imported goods, would have been repatriated to the exporting country currency, keeping the dollar vs foreign currency rather stable. 

However creative ways and methods, including opening up U.S. companies, property, etc. to foreign entities. Of course, the early and easiest route was strong demand for U.S. debt. This continued until the early 2000s, when more and more U.S. property became the target and the attraction to Treasury debt became relatively stable. The dollar remained strong, as competing countries currencies weakened. 

It became a necessity for everyone, to keep the dollar strong, as any weakening threatened the value of dollarized assets. 

The graph above, indicates the timing of the various "QE" programs. The FED was basically absorbing the debt at the primary dealer market to keep interest rates low and inflation at bay. 

When the "trust" hits zero, a hole of $300B~$400B will need to be somehow covered. Congress would need to authorize that additional expenditure.

Where will it come from?

1. Additional debt creation, requiring ever increasing interest rates. Who will purchase that debt and at what premium, that will likely be spiraling upward?
2. Could the FED enact a never before seen size of QE, in attempts to keep interest rates at bay?
3. Will congress finally be forced to massively cutting spending?

As for #1: There is no willpower in Congress, now, in the near future, or even when staring at the abyss... to reduce spending and limit further debt creation. We'll be have gone over the fiscal cliff, before such cuts are forced, via eurobonds, extreme interest rates and massive weakening of the dollar, of which would happen rapidly and dollar holdings will get dumped, as everyone is heading for the exits. 

As for #2: The FED in theory could enact a massive QE program, but it would require fiscal restraint by Congress. Remember that an unrestrained fiscal spending outlook, couple with a massive QE would eventually lead to undermining the entire financial system, which leads to same result as outlined in #1.

As for #3: Probably, once it is too late and public is clamoring for massive change. 

All of that is extreme, but the "Trust" will be bust in 4th quarter of 2032, per the latest estimate. There is also a national election during that 4th quarter, as well. 

If it goes bust, which I have spent most of this article predicting... an immediate and huge impact will hit the economy. Seniors that rely soley on S.S. trust fund income, will be in need of many of the other government programs, which will simply move the debt into those areas. Those that do not soley rely on the trust fund, will likely cut back on spending. 

In the interim, goods and services will take a hit and industries will need to reduce spending (manpower) to bridge gap. Additionally, they may require loans to cover expenses, while the various product pipelines reduce inventories to a new reality. Just as the government is driving up interest rates on their bonds, notes, bills, etc. This is not just a U.S. debt problem, as the sum total of debt worldwide is increasing at a rapid rate.

If you think none of this can happen, just remember... we were here before, when everything was tiny, compared to today, and when there was a willingness to address the problems.

I would suspect that 2033 will be the year of reckoning, although significant cracks will be observed in the runup to that period.

An update on July's inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A, and future of that Trust Fund

First off the July numbers...

The worrying part, is the Producer Price, which could be indicative of future pressure on retail prices.

Which briefly mention CPI-W, which is used for COLA. 

My current estimate is 3.4%-3.5%. Oddly, there seems to be a lot of grousing about this should be higher, or the data is manipulated, etc. What makes it odd, is there are some that inadvertently are wishing for higher inflation, so they get a higher increase. Given the lag time, this is rather insane. 

Of course, this inevitably leads to changing the way it is calculated. Typically, the CPI-E becomes part of that discussion. It would still be lagging, much the same way as CPI-W, although slightly higher... historically. 

The the subject morphs into the "trust" fund. There seems to be a majority opinion that something will be done, to defer that ±22% cut in a few years.

Which brings up the next question... can anyone really do anything. Frankly, I doubt that happening. Why you might ask.

There are 3 types of treasuries. Bills, Notes and Bonds.

Notes and bonds are paid the coupon interest, every 6 months. If a $100 note or bond is issued with a coupon rate of 4%, then two dollars is paid out every 6 months. The coupon rate is set on the primary dealer market. The yields we commonly see published is from the secondary market. Hence if a 5% yield is published, then then value of that note or bond has fallen below $100, when traded. It thereby indicates that future coupon rates will be higher. 

What is paid out on Notes and Bonds... goes agains the budget deficit. This added burden in debt service, will not likely ease... when those 100s of billions of dollars are added to keep social security at 100%.

Now the discussion turns to Bills, which are not paid interest, but rather more of a fee. The treasury sells a $100 treasury Bill for $98, with the guarantee of paying back $100 in 6 months. They pay they $100 by selling a $100 treasurt bill with a guarantee of paying back $102+ in 6 months. That cycle repeats.

The Notes and Bonds interest... shows up on the annual fiscal deficits. The Bills do not. The treasury bills get added to the National Debt. The national debt is rising at a faster nominal rate than the annual deficits, due to this accounting practice.

There is currenly over $8 trillion dollars of notes, with the number rising at a rapid rate. 

We are on a timeline where investors will require much higher premiums to finance these debt instruments. 

What I think will likely happen and the timeline... might be published at a later date.

Another week with the crude report from EIA.GOV.

Let's get the inventory numbers out of the way...

There is some y/y decline in the 4 week average of consumption...

Pump prices are somewhat steady on the gasoline side, although edging up on the diesel side. 

The prices still haven't broken through the 2022 highs and would have a long way to go in inflation adjusted dollars. The inflation adjusted figures are even more startling for 2008.

There is an old saying that we should learn from our mistakes. But are we able to learn from our mistakes, if we constantly blame others???

Should I Start Posting Again... or Not!

It has been awhile, although I have kept abreast of a few things.

First up... is inventory status of select energy components in the USA.

The SPR status is slowly declining, with the unknown being how much spoilage is there. At current rates of withdrawal, about 50 weeks remain... IF there is no spoilage. The Cushing inventory, which is included in the Crude numbers... is low, but not critical, given historical number. 

Of course, the BIG story is pump prices of gasoline. 

I would be a bit more concerned with the Diesel prices, but hey...

Gasoline consumption is -1.7% from last year, with it being -0.4% from last week. Whatever the price, the consumer seems to be adjusting, although still complaining. 

Looking forward, and based on current market pricing...

An uptick in gasoline is in the offing, but the diesel is set to rise rather swiftly, imo.

That finishes up this episode of an old guy foolishly expressing his opinion.

A FEW RAMBLINGS AND OPINIONS REGARDING INFLATION, ENERGY, ETC.

The PCE numbers for January finally arrived yesterday, so the January numbers...

Nothing to extreme. I recognize much of February reportage has been completed, so the laggard is the PCE, which will see next release around April 9th.

Obviously the CPI for February was 2.4%, and we can all expect that to jump for March. Energy prices alone, will drive inflation up by nearly a full percent, for the month of March. I would expect the overall y/y to be in the 3.2%+ range for March.

It should be noted that California prices will distort the national average. California is unique, due to nearly no access to the SPR (no pipeline, Jones Act), in direct competition with east Asia over Alaskan crude. Additionally, 30% of their crude imports ... comes through the Straits of Hormuz. California imports 60% overall. 

Simple math indicates 18% of their refinery inputs are in serious danger of being impacted. It would not be unreasonable to see the pump prices in California breaching the June, 2022 highs. Gasoline- $6.438; Diesel- $7.011.

Natural gas prices are not substantially higher and should not increase due to the situation in the Persian Gulf. The reason being simple... The U.S. facilities for processing NatGas to LNG are already at full operation. 

It is possible that various nation's SPR release might stem to spikes temporarily, but the capacity of withdrawal is one of the questions, as well as shipping availability. Ships can't magically appear overnight... at any given port.

Frankly, I see no easy solution. 

Globally, Asian countries are very vulnerable, with the exception of China.

Curiously, Iran has stated that crude priced in Chinese Yuan would be allowed passage. China might gleefully go along with that, but considering the impact on the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as well as holdings in dollars held by China... maybe not. 

Energy Inventory Update, and Some Geo-Political Thoughts

I guess it is no surprise that pump prices are rapidly rising... now standing at 11.5% above year ago levels.

How high could it go? That gets very complicated and depends on...

Past crude oil disruptions

Nothing really compares to the current situation. The 1973 Arab Embargo, targeted the U.S. and a few other countries, which were mostly unaffected. Notably, the U.S. experienced shortages and significant price hikes. The 1980 Iranian revolution impacted the global prices, but not the Straits of Hormuz. Again this impacted the U.S. with spot shortages and sharp price rises. 

That latter crisis did result in our current spot pricing structure, which ensures inventory across the different regions of the country.

The duration of closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

This is the determinant of future crude prices, natural gas prices, etc. As these are global commodities, the U.S. is not immune, as a net exporter of crude and LNG.

The 2nd part of the puzzle is shipping costs, which are usually included in those futures pricing. There are a lot of tankers, fully loaded and sitting stationary in that Gulf. Additionally, tankers are starting to pile up at the entrance into the Gulf. All those tankers are basically removing shipping capacity from the equation. 

We can all remember the high prices at the pump in 2008, which was caused by a much weaker dollar AND limited transport capability, due to our extreme dependence on imports at that time. 

Some basic math. 

Currently about 20 million barrels of crude passes through the Straits of Hormuz, each every day. Of that, less than 1 million barrels is shipped to the U.S. 3 million barrels are from Iran and generally goes to China. That leaves 16 million barrels for the rest.

The bulk of U.S. Imports are from Canada, which is largely captive by their government policies and is therefore highly dependant on the U.S. importing their product.

Certainly U.S. exports can rise, but a dramatic uptick in shipping would be hard to achieve, imo. U.S. Pump prices will most certainly rise, dependant upon duration of Straits of Hormuz closure, but there should be no shortages at the pump for at least 3 months. That might not be the case in other countries. 

Other overlooked factors

Deducting the 3mbpd exported by Iran to China, there remains 17mbpd of crude not passing through the Straits of Hormuz. That is approximately $1.3B per day of lost revenue to the exporters in that area.

With no ships entering the Straits of Hormuz, countries that are heavily dependent on food imports will experience possible sharp rises in prices, as well as potential shortages.

Summary

As someone that drives very little, an extreme jump in pump prices can be absorbed. As natural gas is a factor in electricity prices, I would expect an uncomfortable jump in that. With diesel prices jumping faster than gasoline and reliance on transportation of products... it will increase things I use on a regular basis.

For me... inflation is the story, NOT shortages, unless it would be shortage of money.

Latest Energy Consumption Data and A Few Ponderings About "Other" stuff!

Pump prices remain relatively steady, with consumption jumping on the weekly basis, but nearly flat... year over year.

Now for the opinion stuff...

It is fascinating to watch the British News over Epstein, Mandelson, Andrew, etc. It was a shock when Andrew was taken into custody. Of course, it was noted on several occasions that the British Police are investigating this sex trafficking thing more thoroughly than in the US.

The possible charges against Andrew, are over government secrets, which came to light after the files release. While he may be assessed by multiple British police agencies over possible movement of underage girls, he has not been charged.

Simply put... Andrew got a lot of publicity over sharing of secret government financial records with Epstein, which violates UK laws and dates back to 2011.

As for Epstein, he served 13 months from June 2008 ~ July 2009... on work release. Which meant he only spent his evenings in a cell. 

As for Andrew, he was a trade envoy from 2001~ 2011. He resigned that position due to some issues with expenses and possible association with unsavory characters.

It is hard to believe the Crown was not aware of Andrew's illegal business dealings. Yet all remained quiet.

An oddity in UK law has the Monarchy immune to open records requests, for 99 years after death.

Taking that last sentence and reviewing the timeline of the past 15 years, the slow drip drip of accusations against Andrew, stripping of his titles and duties and then the timing of his removal from the Royal Lodge, just 2 weeks prior to this latest uproar... reeks of a conspiracy. 

It is not so unbelievable that the Royal Lodge was scrubbed clean and any questionable material, digital and otherwise, is now safely ensconced in some walled off partition, held by the monarchy. To remain there until 99 years after Andrew's demise.

Thus the only evidence is in the U.S. files which were simply reproductions from digital files. 

With the UK media now describing the King as being forthcoming and willing to work with the authorities as somehow being above reproach. The cycle is nearly complete. 

Of course, this is all just a conspiracy on my part... and could never possibly be true.

A Bit of Update on the Energy Market, and a Few Political Opinions.

 The winter weather is the likely culprit for the drop in overall consumption. Only time will tell.

The overall inventories are still in good shape.

Now on to politics and MY OPINION.

GREENLAND...

I think we all understand the earth is not flat, but when discussing Greenland, somehow the average mind forgets that fact, and focus on the flat map. Get a globe to understand. With the potential opening of trade routes in the Arctic, who is to control those routes?

Those trade routes would cut the distance between the Asia Pacific Countries in half and more depending on Suez or Panama route. That has HUGE implications on volume of goods, container ships, cargo rates, etc. I would remind everyone of the Houthis's disruption of trade moving through the Suez Canal and the battle with China over the control of the Panama Canal. 

This is huge and could become a big geo-political nightmare in the coming decades. 

STARMER...

The UK Prime Minister has messed up. If you are not familiar, then step aside. The excuse being run up the flag pole... is the Mandelson appointment was made to placate or negotiate with you know who, in the White House. How weak has the U.K. become... to protrate themselves to a leader of another country. How can Starmer now attempt to play the moral outrage card, after all that.

This is quite laughable, although extremely serious if you are a  Brit, which I am not. However, I do feel sorry for them.

A FEW CHARTS WITH SOME POLITICS - January 07, 2026

The crude inventories are in good shape for this time of year...

It should be noted that the total inventory of Petroleum and Petroleum products are at the highest since April, 2022.

Consumption is near year ago levels, with pricing slightly down. 

Am I the only one noticing that Venezuela crude and Urals crude is similar?

Am I the only one noticing how the same people saying Trump does nothing but lie, lie, lie, are in a rush to treat his every utterance as the Gospel? I guess irrational behavior would create such opposing views. 

I periodically watch a certain UK news station. It was a constant bombardment of the U.S. seizing an oil tanker in the North Atlantic... until is was announced the UK had participated. The is was all rah-rah for the UK military. 

Then is was all about whether the UK was now undertaking a more active role. Yet, it came out the UK vessel was not crewed by Royal Navy, but rather by merchant marines. So who will become more active.

Of course, internation law is bandied about, but there has been literally dozens, if not hundreds of violations of "international law" over the previous decades. 

If there is no one to enforce the law... is there really a law??

Millions of People

I kept hearing about millions of people protesting something today, but all the pictures seem to show significant less. Of course there are about 3 million people attending college football games on any given Saturday, in the fall.

3 Million is less than 1% of the U.S. population. Then there is the matter of how many millions protested and how many were actually virtue signaling.

There has been a lot of protests in my lifetime, some much bigger than today's. In reality... nothing changed then and you can bet nothing will change this time.

These are the same types claiming no King, while worshipping "Hamilton" as some sort of founder. I mean he was the guy that suggested a president for life, etc. 

Producer Price Index and some other opinions

The Producer Price Index was released this morning and indicated an upturn.

Note that I did not revise the December, 2024 final demand, as did the BLS. Yes, December was revised upward to 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142025.htm

The nervous nellies will scream inflation is roaring back. Maybe so, but it will not repeat the horrors of 2021~2022. How can I say that? Once you understand the causes, the answer becomes easy.

• After the covid shutdown and collapse of international trade, the shipping industry was in disarray, with containers to move goods... in all the wrong places.
• Retailers had significantly reduced inventories to meet the slowing demand.
• There was a rather large stimulus paid to American citizens, on top of some previous payouts.
• The covid vaccine was becoming rapidly available.
• The American people were told that it was now safe to resume normal activities.
• An impending west coast port strike for mid 2022, which did not materialize.

Newly freed from fear Americans started immediately spending that stimulus money, which boosted retail sales by 10% in the first month.  The retailers, started ramping up orders significantly to restock the shelves, which exposed the problems with the shipping containers. This was compounded by retailers, pulling orders well ahead to heavily stock up... prior to the threatened west coast port strike. 

The shipping industry has finally recovered, the retail inventories have reached stability, and there are no strike threats on the horizon. There was consideration of a possible port strike on the east coast and gulf, which did increase orders, as well as impending tariff expectations, which also increased orders. 

The port strike is in the rear view mirror and the shipping industry sailed through it easily. The tariff question is still to be answered.

As a further note on retail sales... when adjusted for inflation, they have remained at that March, 2021 level. That will likely be the indicator of future demand... or lack thereof. 

Tariffs would likely weaken demand, so the expectation of massive inflation due to tariffs... not so much.

A Few Reports and some opinions... of course!

The CPI came out today and now that Trump is in office, it has suddenly turned terrible. Nevermind, it is for January, so remarkable for just 11 days in office. /s

The media's memory is a bit wacky, with claims that it has suddenly shifted upward, even though the lowest annual rate since February 2021 was this past September.

A trip down memory lane...

The real earnings report has been ignored and for good reason... weekly wages, when adjusted for inflation have now fallen back to June, 2024 levels. That's seven months, since weekly wages adjusted for inflation have been this low.

Note: The BLS reports both CPI and Real Earnings.

As for the energy report from the EIA, not much in extreme changes. Pump prices will likely rise, but should be noted... still below year ago levels. Of course, the rise will become political, as everything else.

Tariffs... A lot of talk about the damaging effects of tariffs, but the whole matter of FTZ status of dozens of companies have been ignored. A FTZ or "Foreign Trade Zone" status, means a company pays no tariffs, until the end product is sold to the public. There are many large and small companies with FTZs, which include energy companies (refineries, etc.) and automobile companies with their component assemblies. 

Once you understand the magnitude of FTZs, then you should consider that tariffs have long been in existence. 

Another serious argument put forth by many... is the Smoot Hawley act devastated the U.S. Economy during the depression, or at least made it worse. Not sure correlation was causation for this period. It does give the trade aficionados a talking point.

Yes, tariffs will cause inflation. However, off shoring of goods was a primary reason for the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. We basically beat inflation, by utilizing cheap foreign labor. We cannot hope to restore the middle class, without reshoring. 

It really is that simple. 

The Press has a dilemma.

Apparently, some of the left of center media people are noting that Trump tells what he thinks when answering their question.

The press is so used to the evasive non answers, that Trump speaking freely and off the cuff has them concerned.

Previously, the press were responsible for interpreting what the politician's doublespeak meant. Usually by citing some anonymous "source" while spouting endlessly on air. Which begs the question... are those sources real and/or are they honest.

Think about it, the news media has a much reduced role, or even need... in this environment. 

Those flashy press jobs don't look as important as those flashy media types have projected.  

1-31-2025 Week In Review

Energy

Crude inventory up a bit, with distillates down, and gasoline up. SPR up a bit. Price at the pump has barely budged and should continue in a narrow band.

Politics

It is the same old, same old. It was funny, but is now getting boring. Example: When there is a school shooting, we know what is said immediately by both sides. A plane crash provides us with the same dynamics, but in opposite polarization. 

Unfortunately, there is a history regarding this issue, dating back to the Obama presidency, which is in the courts since 2014 and is still not resolved, as of 1-29-2025.

BRIGIDA v. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

GDP

Annualized at 2.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditures were up dramatically.

While the 4th quarter jump in personal consumption expenditures is not entirely unheard of... I do wonder about the enormous jump in this past quarter and whether I am able to believe it... which I consider a bit shady. 

One possible explanation of this large jump is people buying ahead of potential tariffs. This is solely based on social media posts, which have people talking about buying stuff now, rather than later. Of course, these are social media posts, which are about as believable as... the GDP numbers.

Of course, if those posts are indicative, then the later buying will not take place and personal consumption expenditures will slow considerably in 1Q2025. Of course, politics will come into sharp view. Or rather sharper view.

PCE Report

Considering the target is 2.0%, The FED is okay with a number above that, as they left rates unchanged. Clearly there is concern for inflation, but there are some troubling signs... regarding the economy.

The Snow has almost melted.

Almost, as it has been 27 days and the temps are expected to be near 60 for a couple of days, and above freezing til the 9th.

End of the line

I am getting so bored with the current news cycle. I think it is time to simply blog, when there is something of interest.

Also, I have had adsense running and think it is time to remove adsense from this blog. I am the only person interested, so it makes more sense to cut adsense. My reasons for adsense were mostly to understand the audience, but since there isn't any... there you go. Besides, there never was any meaningful knowledge to gain, that was not already present under stats. 

Also, I always checked from my home screen and never really looked at the end product on line. I recently checked and clearly, I do not know how to properly place ads. It is rather embarrassing.

Adios!

1-24-2025 Week In Review

Current Rage...

I probably should stop watching UK's Sky News. I was watching it during the swearing in and their announcer said something that just hit me the very, very wrong way. For the record, it was not something derogatory about Trump, which is typical of this outfit, while ignoring anything negative about you know who. 

When did it start...

I am not a historical scholar and would not suggest that political rancor never existed. However, the "butthurt" of losing parties seems to have dialed up in my lifetime. Actually, I would suggest it started with the election of Clinton. 

There was a lot of rumors, etc. during his tenure. With the 2000 election, the opposite party seemed to have some butthurt. The election of Obama gave us the "tea party" and then there was the first term of Trump. Biden followed and now with Trump again. 

Both sides seem to have developed severe cases of "butthurt", imo. I don't see it ending any time soon, either.

Misinformation abounds in unlikely places.

"FBI" agent that took down Capone. That was in a crossword puzzle. Ness was a Prohibition Bureau agent, and the FBI was not in place until 1935, although it was preceded by the Bureau of Investigation. The Prohibition Bureau was originally in the Treasury and absorbed by the BOI (Justice) in early 1933. Late 1933, saw it returned to the Treasury and eventually became the ATF of today.

Make up your damn  minds...

The media kept saying all he does is lie, lie, and lie. Now they are complaining because he actually told the truth. Make up your damn minds... or at least stop losing your minds.

ENERGY

A lot of racket, but no serious movement, imho. Pump prices are set to slightly rise, for both gasoline and diesel. There was a lot of talk about a "draw", which did bring down the total about 3.9M barrels, but the total is still 24.2M barrels ahead of last year on this date.

Birthright citizenship...

Remember this... "so long as they are permitted by the United States to reside here."

United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898) Chinese persons, born out of the United States, remaining subjects of the Emperor of China, and not having become citizens of the United States, are entitled to the protection of, and owe allegiance to, the United States so long as they are permitted by the United States to reside here, and are " subject to the jurisdiction thereof" in the same sense as all other aliens residing in the United States.

If you can't understand that part, then you may be shocked with the final outcome of this. The recent judge's ruling is merely the first salvo, imo.

Weather

Finally, the temps are set to moderate, which means above freezing. Maybe it will last long enough for all this snow to melt. 

That's all for this round.

1-10-2025 Week In Review

Weather

Yep, been a fun few days, as we received about 6" of snow, then about 3/4" of ice, then another 3" of snow. I am no longer able to clear the driveway, so hoping nothing in the way of an emergency.

I have no real reason to leave the house, although the long range forecast shows no warming temperatures to thaw that mess. Another 2" predicted for this weekend, below freezing temps through the following weekend, with a possible big snow of 6"+. 

Groceries might be needed.

Politics

You already know the U.S. news, but what about abroad?

U.K. news media is all a-flutter over Musk tweets. This forced the Labour government to respond. Apparently, there was a grooming gang problem back a decade ago, which resulted in several inquiries, which further resulted in recommendations. 

A decade later, after the Musk tweets, it seems the Labour government has decided to begin implementing some of those recommendations. 

Sir Keir Starmer was the head of the Crown Prosecution Services back in the day, and is now Prime Minister. He claims Musk is promoting a right wing attack. Strange that nothing was implemented until Musk got to tweeting. 

So successive U.K. governments did nothing and it is Musk's fault for tweeting about it. Hard to imagine where the issue would be without the tweets. 

A Sky News (UK) reporter, after news of META dropping "fact-checking" and going to community notes... asked the question of what is the future of liberal fact-checking. The irony of such a question.

I watch Sky News on a regular basis and the opinion I have is... The U.K. has much bigger problems than Musk tweeting.

Back to the U.S., and is the media hyperventilating like they did... 8 years ago? It does seem that way to me. 

Energy

Not much to say, although pump prices likely to rise a nickel in the coming week. Same for diesel.

and the rest...

Fires. Plentiful dry vegetation, high winds, and homes built of largely dry timber. Just takes a spark.

Jobs report. Looks really good, but remember all the revisions the past year. I'll take a wait and see.

Zombie companies. These are companies that seemingly were profitable, but largely due to low interest bonds and rates. Those days are gone and we will likely see some corporate profits suffer as these bonds are rolled over.

Trump jail. He's a convicted felon without having to spend time in jail, or on parole, etc. Almost as good as a pardon. Speaking of which... wonder who else is about to get pardoned. 

Greenland. This suddenly got interesting.

Changing direction on blogging

A new year is upon us, and just some thoughts.

I am changing direction, as I will restrict my blog entries on a variety of topics. I still track those areas, but find it a bit time consuming to post. Besides, it seems to have cluttered up the site, with no meaningful outside interest.

Thus returning to my thoughts and opinions. Which could be about anything. 

The presidential election is over, but politics is never over, so there is that.

The economy is something of interest, which includes several items and becomes political.

International events might arise, which are also political in nature. 

Frankly, about everything that happens anymore... becomes political, whether immigration, crime, etc.

I could summarize what transpired in 2024, but you should already know. What none of us know... is what impact it will have on 2025.

We have the debt ceiling, a new congress, a new president, wars cropping up everywhere, and the list goes on and on. 

After the past few years of revisions to various previous month's economic numbers, which resulted in more positive news on date of release... we will likely start to see the truth going forward. I am suggesting the results have not been as positive as the media has proclaimed. 

Energy Prices

Futures indicate that gasoline pump prices ranging from -4.2¢~+4.4¢ over the near term. 

Port Strike

It strongly appears that the ILA v USMX strike will be postponed for 3 1/2 months, as that would be the most beneficial for both sides. 

Tariffs

Has anyone been watching the foreign exchange market? The Yen and Yuan have been weakening against the dollar. So have a host of other currencies. 

Woohoo! The strong dollar fans are overlooking what caused offshoring and will inhibit reshoring. Our trading partners are not converting all those sales in dollars... back to their native currencies. No, they are purchasing Dollarized assets, such as bonds, financials, properties, etc. 

Basically... propping up the dollar. We have not learned a darn thing over the past 40 years, as to why the early 80s inflation was brought down so low, until the great covid shipping snafu. 

That's it for this week.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -8.8¢, or -2.88%. Days supply fell to 25.2. For perspective... last year was 25.7 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -4.2M barrels; Distillates down -1.7M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -12.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +260K barrels.

The total products is still +16.2M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $16.89, to $16.68. Gasoline rose to $7.74, from last week's $7.68. Distillates fell to $8.94, compared to last week's $9.22. Per barrel of diesel is $29.60; Per barrel of gasoline is $17.02. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.7¢ ~ +1.9¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

I will continue to track the Energy Reports for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +1.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -3.2¢, or -1.2%. Days supply fell to 25.4. For perspective... last year was 26.5 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -934K barrels; Distillates down -3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -2.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +519K barrels.

The total products is still +11.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.11, to $16.89. Gasoline fell to $7.67, from last week's $8.38. Distillates rose to $9.22, compared to last week's $8.72. Per barrel of diesel is $30.53; Per barrel of gasoline is $16.86. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -.02¢ ~ +4.2¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.