This Week in Petroleum Summary April 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Pump prices were flat on the week, although down -0.7¢ from last year. Consumption is down from last year's mark, but slightly up from previous week.

Inventories were mixed in this week's report. Crude, -6.4M barrels; Distillates, +1.6M barrels; Gasoline, -600K barrels.

Refinery output continues to lag, against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased slightly from last week's $29.55, to $29.44. Gasoline at $19.49 from last week's $19.37. Distillates at $9.95, compared to last week's $10.18.

Gasoline pump prices seem to be trading in a narrow band, with some downward pressure in Diesel pricing.

Nothing dramatic in this week's report, imho.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV

Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.

Since the last election blog, the national poll indicates a slight dip in Biden's numbers of -0.1%. Not really significant.

Much ado was made about a certain big poll, for a leading national publication... with statements of how Biden is narrowing the gap to 0.1%, yet still trailing in a poll that had Biden with a 14 point lead just before the 2020 election. An election that had Biden winning by 4.45 points.

However, the electoral votes are what matters, with Biden 306-232 victory, or 13.8 point margin.

BUT, Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes; Arizona by a mere 10,457 votes; Wisconsin by a mere 20,682 votes. If those states had flipped to Trump, it would have tied at 269 electoral votes. Nevada's 33,596 vote margin for Biden could have tipped to Trump and gave Trump the 2020 election.

So a total of 76,514 votes determined the 2020 election, out of a total of 158,594,895 votes cast or a very miniscule amount. Less than 0.049%.

Of course, there is still 198 days before the general election and things can change. Since last election blog, there has been some small changes.

Arizona has seen a very slight increase in Trump's lead; Florida has seen erosion in Biden's numbers; Texas has also seen erosion the Biden's numbers. Minnesota, also sees some slippage for Biden.

North Carolina has seen improvement for Biden, with Trump slipping in Michigan. 

None of the above indicate a change in electoral outlook... at this time.

Back in 2016, Trump rose up from relative obscurity to presidency, even though there was tremendous amounts of negative publicity. Here we are in 2024, with Trump receiving even more negative publicity. 

Perception of the public is hard to gauge, but the public does not have a very high opinion of "government" in general, with trust in government about 16% on recent polls I have seen. The media is constantly reporting government efforts to find Trump guilty of some criminal and/or civil malfeasance. Not sure it is working as planned, imho.

Which leads me to believe that all these court proceedings, are not really bad publicity for Trump.

Just saying...

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Pump prices edged up +4.1¢ on the week, although down -1.3¢ from last year. Consumption is down from last year's mark, but slightly up from previous week.

Inventories were mixed in this week's report. Crude, +2.7M barrels; Distillates, -2.8M barrels; Gasoline, -1.2M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $29.28, to $29.55. Gasoline at $19.37 from last week's $18.79. Distillates at $10.18, compared to last week's $10.49.

The upward pressure on pump prices has moderated, with the current expectation at near current levels, with potential for a drop, not being out of the realm of possibilities.

My electricity bills over time (April, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

On a 12 month rolling average, my costs are down 6.6% from previous year.

It is back to summer of 2022, but I don't really expect anymore slippage. One can hope, however.

What is Social Security?

Quite often we hear of some group wanting to eliminate waste in social security, make adjustments to save social security, etc.

Generally speaking, most of us think of social security as that pension for old folks, with the trust funds etc. That is just part of social security. 

Social Security can be found in Title 42, Chapter 7 of the U.S. Code. There are currently, 21 sub chapters, with subchapter 2 being something called "Federal Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance. OASDI. That is the part we frequently refer to as social security, with trust funds. Medicare is subchapter 18, with associated trust funds. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) is within subchapter 16.

But in reality, Social Security encompasses dozens of programs, which are in the form of block grants to states, as well as budgeted appropriations for all manner of items, from CHIPS, SNAP, Food Stamps, etc. 

Here is a partial listing of such social security items...

So when someone tries to stir up trouble with the mantra of illegals, migrants, etc. are collecting social security... it's not likely to be OASDI, but could be in the form of various other programs. 

When someone attempts to scare away the seniors with proclamations that a certain group are out to get your social security... just exactly what program within social security, are they referring.

There are a variety of proposals in congress to make adjustments to "social security", but aren't spun as social security.

Recently a proposal to address the claw back issue in Medicaid got some attention. Everyone thought it a good idea. Not a mention of social security, except the bill itself stated... 

A BILL To amend title XIX of the Social Security Act to repeal the requirement that States establish a Medicaid Estate Recovery Program and to limit the circumstances in which a State may place a lien on a Medicaid beneficiary’s property. 

Of course, the term social security was not used in the media, as it would have caused a kerfuffle if the media used the term "amend social security". 

I doubt things will change, as our masters fully understand our ignorance on the matter of "social security", and thus use it... for political purposes. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 10th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

While the pump price edged up this past week, by 1.5¢... consumption data suggests a slight pullback.

Inventories were up across the board this past week.

Crude inventories rose +5.8M barrels; distillates rose +1.7M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +700K barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fell slightly from last week's $30.10, to $29.28. Gasoline at $18.79 from last week's $18.73. Distillates at $10.49, compared to last week's $11.37.

There continues to be an upward pressure on pump prices, with the current expectation at the low $3.70ish range. Diesel appears to be at a level range, with a potential of some slippage.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 3rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggests a moderate increase in consumption, with a +1.4¢ pump price increase.

The consistent decline in gasoline stocks seems to be elevating the projections for pump prices, with last week's forecast of mid $3.60ish, back to near $3.70, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.3M barrels; gasoline stocks fell by -4.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $29.81, to $30.10. Gasoline at $18.73 from last week's $18.86. Distillates at $11.37, compared to last week's $10.95.

Despite the nervous nellies attempting to spook the market, this is not really so bad, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggesting a moderation of consumption this past week, which is also seen in steadying of pump prices, with a +2¢ rise.

Current projections indicate somewhat of an easing in upward prices, with last week's forecast of upper $3.60ish, moving to mid $3.60ish, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.2M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +1.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fallen from last week's $32.24, to $29.81. Gasoline at $18.86 from last week's $20.09. Distillates at $10.95, compared to last week's $12.15.

All in all... a decent looking report, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption continues to edge up with gasoline inventories declining... result prices moving upward at the pump. Current projection is upper $3.60ish, in the next few weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.9M barrels; distillates up 600K barrels; gasoline down again at -3.4M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has leveled off since last week to $32.24, with gasoline at $20.09 from last week's $20.05. Distillates at $12.15, compared to last week's $13.13.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel in a narrow band. 

That's all for this week.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XII

It's been a couple of weeks, since the last review. Not a lot has changed, but there were some minor adjustments.

The republican edge in Arizona, narrowed a bit (-0.2%), but still in the slight range beyond the margin of error. 

The republican edge in Pennsylvania, increased a bit (+0.8), which moved it from the Toss Up category back to slight, with it being just above the margin of error.

The general election is 231 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 312 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 10EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.6%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Still a lot of time to go and many more polls to digest. UGH!!

My electricity bills over time (March, 2024 Edition)

Just for fun, I track my electricity usage and voila!!

Here is the annual average by year, which is distorted for 2024, as a few higher months are in play. Should come down as the heating season transitions to cooling. The latter will lift back up until the transistion period into heating.

Another way to view consumption is with a rolling 12 month average...

Obviously, the peak was in 2022, which was frought with energy price turmoil. Things appear to be settling back down, but I have no expectation for a return to levels seen only a short time ago. The rolling average is -5.4% below year ago levels.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption is heading up, just ahead of this week, last year.

Pump prices seem to be edging upward. They now appear to be heading toward a national average in the $3.60ish range. Time will tell. However, diesel seems to be trending lower.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.5M barrels; distillates up 1.0M barrels; gasoline down again at -5.6M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has shot up since last week to $33.18, with gasoline jumping to $20.05 from last week's $17.02. Distillates at $13.13, compared to last week's $12.41.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel remaining relatively flat. 

That's all for this week.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption continues to rise on a weekly basis, but not yet at last year's seasonal levels.

And as can be expected... pump prices are also rising...

Refinery operational levels continue below year ago averages.

Crude inventories rose +1.4M barrels; distillates down -4.1M barrels; gasoline down -4.5M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has shot up since last week to $29.43, with gasoline jumping to $17.02 from last week's $10.89. Distillates at $12.41, compared to last week's $12.01.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel remaining relatively flat. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XI

I said I would not post another election article, unless there were changes. I guess I lied.

The national polls continue to be tight, with a slight edge to republicans. Late in 2016, it was a 4 point lead for Clinton and resulted in a 2 point lead in actual votes. 2020 saw a significant lead of about 9 points for Biden, which ended with a 4.5 point vote lead for Biden.

Of course the polls were wrong in each case. Polls seem to vary in accuracy from state to state. It could be that down ballots affected the actual vote vs polls. A dem voter in a deep red state may have seen nothing of significance on the down ballot and opted to avoid voting. 

Similarly, a weak down ballot might have discourage a dem voter from going to the polls, when they felt assured of victory for their candidate.

There are many reasons for polls not fully reflecting the actual votes. Some voter2 might be hesitant to provide their real intentions, due to a number of factors.

In any case, some states polls have been reflective of eventual outcomes. The VAR (variance) in the above chart indicates the difference between polls and outcomes. Those numbers hold largely true back to the 2000 election.

Arizona would be an example of a state that has very accurate polls... historically. Why? I don't know. The actual poll numbers might not reflect the actual vote tally, BUT the variance is undeniable. Arizona is almost always in the very accurate range, with the variance near zero.

Wisconsin is on the other end of the spectrum, with a red 6.5% variance. Meaning the margin of eventual tally is favorable to republicans by 6.5%. Thus a poll lead of 4.4% for republicans... becomes a very hard lean in favor of republicans.

When all is said and done, the current projected EV tally is REP-293, DEM-216, and TU-29, with the TUs favoring the REP.

There are 248 days until judgement day. A lot can change in that length of time... AND a lot needs to change!

Once again, I will attempt to avoid futher commenting until something does change.

Wish me luck!

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 28th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Upward movement in consumption continues...

Pump prices are beginning to drift upward...

Refinery levels continue to ease for a 4 week running average.

Crude inventories rose +4.2M barrels; distillates down -510K barrels; gasoline down -2.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is $22.91 per barrel, with $12.01 coming from distillate and $10.89 from gasoline. 

Those figures are down compared to last week. It is notable the drop in the diesel portion, which would suggest lessening demand, which is also seen in a slight downward trajectory in pump prices, as well as a slight decrease in refinery output, despite higher crude pricing.

Gasoline pump prices are edging up, which can be reflected in upward crude prices, lessening refinery operation, etc. 

The relationship between diesel and gasoline should not be overlooked.