2024 Presidential Election Review, part 1 of ?

First off, I did a decent job in forecasting the election. If you were to read previous post, I always mentioned the lean states as favoring Trump and projected an EV tally of 306. I messed up on Nevada, however.

Still, I will brag on myself, as no one else will... or even pay attention. That's okay!

From previous post...

The Electoral Vote count stands at 246 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 66 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 60, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs. 

The previous 2 elections indicated significant under polling for Trump. Not sure how much is applicable to this election, as Trump has been polling much stronger. It there is a tendency for significant under polling towards Trump, then the possibility of him achieving the majority of the vote.

Current polling suggests neither would achieve majority. 

Which leads me to the 2nd topic. Note this projection.

Currently, the media is reporting Trump at 50.6% of the vote. Everyone is talking about majority and mandate. A word of caution... of the 11M+ votes remaining to be tabulated, 82.5% are from Democratic strongholds, such as California. 

Using the current state by state percentages of votes remaining and factoring each current candidate percent of vote... Trump will be just shy of majority, by approximately 32.6K votes. Naturally, this can change in the coming days. Remember: a majority is 50% + 1 vote. Certainly his plurality of vote is not in question.

If/when that vote tally slips below the 50% mark, you will hear loud and hard from the left... Trump doesn't have a majority and therefore does not have a mandate. Of course, the right will proclaim Kennedy's votes pushes it into mandate territory. Currently, his number 663K, or 0.45%.

That will be interesting to watch, if indeed, Trump slips below 50%.

As far as projections of this years vote to 2024... I present the following. Note the red numbers are less than 2020. You can click on the image to enlarge... I think.

In summation... if you think this election is over and done with, it is for the most part. The &itching, whining, bull5hit, etc. is just getting started. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.28¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -31.1¢, or -9.1%. Days supply rosel to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were up across the board , with crude up +1.1M barrels; Distillates up +2.9M barrels; Gasoline stocks up +412K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +263K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +19.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.62, to $17.00. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.44, from last week's $8.45. Distillates rose to $8.57, compared to last week's $8.17.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days. -0.9¢ ~ +3.5¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

 

2024 Presidential Election Update, Final Edition?

The Electoral Vote count stands at 246 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 66 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 60, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

The under polling should be interesting to see, but that will come in after election analysis.

The previous 2 elections indicated significant under polling for Trump. Not sure how much is applicable to this election, as Trump has been polling much stronger. It there is a tendency for significant under polling towards Trump, then the possibility of him achieving the majority of the vote. 

Current polling suggests neither would achieve majority. 

It is razor thin and should be entertaining... the next couple of days, or possibly more.

 

2024 Presidential Election Update, November 2nd Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 235 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 77 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 71, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

However, the shift since last week, has been closing the gap. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have fallen into MoE territory.

It will be a very long election night, stretching well into Wednesday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 30th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.9¢, or -10.3%. Days supply fell to 23.3. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days. 

Inventories were down across the board , with crude down +515K barrels; Distillates down -977K barrels; Gasoline stocks down -2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +20.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.01, to $16.62. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.45 from last week's $8.74. Distillates to $8.17, compared to last week's $8.27.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.3¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 26th Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 264 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. Arizona and Georgia are starting to lean heavier into Trump territory, which would put the count at 291.

What is interesting to me... is the national vote count. It appears a possibility that Trump might win a majority of that vote. 

Contrary to what some people might believe... a majority constitutes 50% plus 1 vote of total votes cast.

Going back to at least 1828, indicates that the person with the majority of votes always wins the election... except in 1876, when Rutherford B Hayes won the electoral vote with 47.92% of the vote against Samuel Tilden's 50.92%. 

Not sure either of this year's candidates will receive a majority of the vote, but the potential for Trump to gain the electoral vote and the majority... does exist.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 23rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -4.1¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -39.4¢, or -11.1%. Days supply rose to 24.0. For perspective... last year was 26.0 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +5.5M barrels; Distillates down -1.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +878K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +25.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.29, to $17.01. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.74 from last week's $8.75. Distillates to $8.27, compared to last week's $8.54.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -2.3¢ ~ +3.1¢. Take your pick. 

Still, nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 19th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting back above the upper threshold of margin of error and Arizona easing back into that upper threshold. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 279 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 33, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 17 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 17 days to go.

Last week, I commented on the dems throwing everything including the kitchen sink, into the campaign. We are getting into ripping down drywall, and tearing out plumbing and wiring... at this point.

My electricity bills over time (October, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The September bill came in much lower than last year. -8.3% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is down -2.5% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -38.8¢, or -10.8%. Days supply fell to 23.6. For perspective... last year was 26.1 days. 

Inventories fell across the board , with crude down -2.2M barrels; Distillates down -3.5M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -6.1M barrels, with the SPR rising +952K barrels.

The total products is still +18.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.52, to $17.29. Gasoline rose to $8.75 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $8.54, compared to last week's $8.10.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.8¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now. 

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 12th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting below the upper threshold of margin of error. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 274 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 38, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 32 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 24 days to go.

While there has been fluctuations in Trump's EV count, there has been little movement in Harris'.

With 24 days to go, expect an even more hysterical campaign, if such a thing is impossible. It will be beyond everything but the kitchen sink... to multiple kitchen sinks, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 9th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.9¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -49.9¢, or -13.5%. Days supply fell to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 26.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +5.8M barrels; Distillates down -3.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -6.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -7.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +12.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $15.70, to $16.52. Gasoline steady to $8.42 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $8.10, compared to last week's $7.83.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -3.2¢ ~ +3.0¢. Take your pick. 

This coming week... only time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 5th Edition

The race seems to be shifting, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 290 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 22, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 16 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 31 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, moving towards Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, easing towards Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump
• Pennsylvania, slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

The race is really to close to call, but there is some evidence the Harris campaign is facing headwinds.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 2nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.17¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -61.8¢, or -16.2%. Days supply jumped to 25.3. For perspective... last year was 27.2 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +3.9M barrels; Distillates down -1.3M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -249K barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +26.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $16.22, to $15.70. Gasoline down to $7.87 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $7.83, compared to last week's $7.80.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -7.5¢ ~ 2.5¢. Take your pick. However, if Iranian petroleum infrastructure were to be somehow hampered... all bets are off, imho.

This coming week... only time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 28th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 240 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 72, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 66 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 38 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, seemingly favoring Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, very slim in favor of Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump, but Harris cutting into lead
• Pennsylvania, very slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

It is one thing to say these polls are within the margin of error, but that margin of error usually indicates the point of confidence. Most of the polls are near the center of those MOE ranges. That is NOT indicating much in the way of confidence.

Translation: This race is DAMN tight!

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 25th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -66.8¢, or -16.5%. Days supply slipped to 24.9. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days.

Inventories slid across the board, with crude slipping -4.5M barrels; Distillates down -2.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -1.5M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -13.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.3M barrels.

The total products is still +31.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread edged up from last week's $15.63, to $16.22. Gasoline up to $8.42 from last week's $8.26. Distillates to $7.80, compared to last week's $7.37.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. 

This coming week... only time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 21st Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 67, with an edge still favoring Trump at 46 and Harris at 21. Thus, Trump at 291 and Harris at 247. 270 is needed to win. 45 days to go. 

While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor. 

While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.

Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump with  slim edge, at 60%

Georgia - 16 Evs... Trump with the edge, at 85%

Michigan - 15EVs... Harris with a razor thin edge

Nevada - 6 EVs... Harris, razor thin, but edging up. 

Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 73%, down sharply from last week

Those represent 67 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 5, whereas Trump needs 2. 

Harris has taken the lead in the national composite... 49.9 ~ 49.6. In 2016, Clinton led Trump 42.0 ~ 40.3. In 2020, Biden led Trump 50.3 ~ 43.5

My electricity bills over time (September, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The August bill came in much lower than last year. -10.5% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

I can take any good news and this is getting better.

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -3.0¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -66.8¢, or -17.2%. Days supply edged up to 25. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude slipping -1.6M barrels; Distillates up 125K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +69K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -485K barrels, with the SPR rising +655K barrels.

The total products is still +42.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread edged up from last week's $15.39, to $15.63. Gasoline up to $8.26 from last week's $7.82. Distillates to $7.37, compared to last week's $7.57.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 14th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 61, with an edge still favoring Trump at 42 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 52 days to go. 

While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor. 

While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.

• Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 89%
• Michigan - 16 EVS... Trump odds of winning - 86%
• Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 80%
• Georgia - 16 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 69%

Those represent 62 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 4, whereas Trump needs 2. 

Harris has whittled away at what was once a commanding Trump lead, but can that pace continue over the next 52 days? 

Now the question is whether I will continue to track all this, as my several of my files have become corrupted, and several attempts to restore them have failed. So do I go back to square 1?