The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-02-2026)

A mixed bag, with crude falling, as well as gasoline, jet fuel and SPR. Distillate edged up, as well as Jet fuel. 

Gasoline consumption is edging downward on a 4 week moving average. -2.8% compared to year ago levels, and -0.5% on the week to week 4 week average.

Pump prices for gasoline are staying in a somewhat narrow band. However diesel prices could very well break through all time highs, set in June of 2022. $6+ for a national average is certainly within the realm of possibility, with California diesel possibly topping $8 in the near future. 

So some fun facts. The U.S. consumer uses about 1/3 of global gasoline consumption, while the U.S. refiners produce about 1/6 of global diesel product, after export the U.S. consumes... about 12% of global diesel products. 

U.S. refiners are operating at near record levels, to meet the demand. The global demand of diesel... is driving the price upward, at an astonishing pace. Despite refining about half as much diesel, as gasoline, the refiners are making 70% more on that diesel. 

One would think the refiners might wish to make even more, by tweaking the process to produce more diesel. While that is theoretically possible, it would also cause gasoline stocks to slip, thereby driving up gasoline pump prices, which is more politically visible. 

So while there is a bit of stability in gasoline prices, the diesel market will be allowed to escalate prices until, it becomes politically visible. However the majority of the public will focus on the pump price directly in their face and a minority will possibly virtue signal their indigation of diesel prices.

What I am saying is... diesel prices are set to rise another 82¢ a gallon from today's price, while gasoline will likely stay in their current range.

Feel free to bookmark and come back in a few weeks, to see how accurate I am, or point out my inaccuracies. 

Another week with the crude report from EIA.GOV.

Let's get the inventory numbers out of the way...

There is some y/y decline in the 4 week average of consumption...

Pump prices are somewhat steady on the gasoline side, although edging up on the diesel side. 

The prices still haven't broken through the 2022 highs and would have a long way to go in inflation adjusted dollars. The inflation adjusted figures are even more startling for 2008.

There is an old saying that we should learn from our mistakes. But are we able to learn from our mistakes, if we constantly blame others???

Should I Start Posting Again... or Not!

It has been awhile, although I have kept abreast of a few things.

First up... is inventory status of select energy components in the USA.

The SPR status is slowly declining, with the unknown being how much spoilage is there. At current rates of withdrawal, about 50 weeks remain... IF there is no spoilage. The Cushing inventory, which is included in the Crude numbers... is low, but not critical, given historical number. 

Of course, the BIG story is pump prices of gasoline. 

I would be a bit more concerned with the Diesel prices, but hey...

Gasoline consumption is -1.7% from last year, with it being -0.4% from last week. Whatever the price, the consumer seems to be adjusting, although still complaining. 

Looking forward, and based on current market pricing...

An uptick in gasoline is in the offing, but the diesel is set to rise rather swiftly, imo.

That finishes up this episode of an old guy foolishly expressing his opinion.

Some thought on May 7th, 2026... about energy, etc.

It's been awhile since posting, although I never really stopped tracking. 

Current U.S. inventories, compared to last week and 1 year ago.

Not terribly tight and I really don't see a significant drop off in U.S. consumer purchasing at the pump. Distillate exports reached an all time high during this reporting period. Additionally, the distillate inventory has dropped to levels not seen since 5/23/2003.

Pump prices compared to days gone by, factoring in inflation...

That $4.114 in July, 2008 is comparable to $6.176 in today's dollars. Also, the $5.016 of June, 2022 is comparable to $5.590 in today's dollars.

The market does seem to be settling down a bit, but I suspect that is more fear of getting caught over bought, due to some very clear demand destruction in Asia. Much was made if that 470M Barrels being released from various strategic petroleum reserves, but that is a drop in the bucket to the near 1B barrels that have been lost to the strait of hormuz blockade, etc.

Even if the blockade suddenly stopped tomorrow and the full complement of crude starts tomorrow... another 500M barrels will be removed from the global inventories, due to transit times of delivey. If you are keeping track... that is 1B barrels above the SPR release.

That demand destruction is taking place, is undeniable. Even with significant demand destruction of 5M barrels per day... it would take 6 months for a full recovery, imho.

What I find interesting, is the lack of discussion of the current state of natural gas supplies. Qatar suffered a severe setback in its LNG liquefaction facilities. It will take some time to resolve that situation and while there are new Liquefaction facilities coming on line later this year... the current state of the European Union's Natural Gas storage if behind last year, with draws still above last year. 

Purchases of Natural Gas for storage is woefully behind last year. Perhaps they see a milder winter coming up over the next 12 months. I guess what I am hinting at... Natural Gas prices in Europe are set to dramatically escalate in the coming months, OR... they may decide to swallow some pride and get some of that pipeline natural gas from somewhere.

Pump Prices heading up!!

Reviewed this weeks EIA report and observed the current status of inventories. 

Oddly, although domestic consumption is down from last year, the past couple of weeks has shown an increase in that consumption.

Checking the futures market, refinery operating rates, etc., it would certainly appear that prices will continue that upward trend, with gasoline easily rising another 4¢~7¢ and diesel jumping 9¢+.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -8.8¢, or -2.88%. Days supply fell to 25.2. For perspective... last year was 25.7 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -4.2M barrels; Distillates down -1.7M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -12.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +260K barrels.

The total products is still +16.2M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $16.89, to $16.68. Gasoline rose to $7.74, from last week's $7.68. Distillates fell to $8.94, compared to last week's $9.22. Per barrel of diesel is $29.60; Per barrel of gasoline is $17.02. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.7¢ ~ +1.9¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

I will continue to track the Energy Reports for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +1.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -3.2¢, or -1.2%. Days supply fell to 25.4. For perspective... last year was 26.5 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -934K barrels; Distillates down -3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -2.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +519K barrels.

The total products is still +11.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.11, to $16.89. Gasoline fell to $7.67, from last week's $8.38. Distillates rose to $9.22, compared to last week's $8.72. Per barrel of diesel is $30.53; Per barrel of gasoline is $16.86. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -.02¢ ~ +4.2¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -1.3¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -13.3¢, or -4.2%. Days supply rose to 25.5. For perspective... last year was 26.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.4M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +5.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -195K barrels, with the SPR rising +724K barrels.

The total products is still +17.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.41, to $17.11. Gasoline fell to $8.38, from last week's $8.73. Distillates slid to $8.72, compared to last week's $8.68.

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -3.1¢ ~ +4.4¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

We may be nearing the end of downward pressures on gasoline. Just have to wait and see.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -0.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -20.9¢, or -6.4%. Days supply rose to 24.5. For perspective... last year was 26.2 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -5.1M barrels; Distillates up +3.4M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -3.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +7.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.96, to $17.41. Gasoline fell to $8.73, from last week's $8.76. Distillates slid to $8.68, compared to last week's $9.21.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.4¢ ~ +3.6¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.7¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -17.7¢, or -5.4%. Days supply rose to 24.2. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.8M barrels; Distillates up +416K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -625K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.2M barrels.

The total products is still +9.8M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $18.64, to $17.96. Gasoline fell to $8.76, from last week's $9.46. Distillates rose to $9.21, compared to last week's $9.18.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.9¢ ~ +3.1¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.8¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -24.2¢, or -7.3%. Days supply rose to 23.4. For perspective... last year was 24.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +545K barrels; Distillates down -114K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose -4.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.95, to $18.64. Gasoline rose to $9.46, from last week's $8.99. Distillates rose to $9.18, compared to last week's $8.96.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. +2.3¢ ~ +3.6¢. Supposedly, this will be blamed on missiles in Ukraine, causing price of oil to move.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 15th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.5¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.1¢, or -7.8%. Days supply slid to 22.9. For perspective... last year was 24.0 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +2.1M barrels; Distillates down -199K barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -4.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -5.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +81K barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.00, to $17.95. Gasoline rose to $8.99, from last week's $8.44. Distillates rose to $8.96, compared to last week's $8.57.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.7¢ ~ +3.0¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.28¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -31.1¢, or -9.1%. Days supply rosel to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were up across the board , with crude up +1.1M barrels; Distillates up +2.9M barrels; Gasoline stocks up +412K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +263K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +19.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.62, to $17.00. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.44, from last week's $8.45. Distillates rose to $8.57, compared to last week's $8.17.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days. -0.9¢ ~ +3.5¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

 

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 30th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.9¢, or -10.3%. Days supply fell to 23.3. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days. 

Inventories were down across the board , with crude down +515K barrels; Distillates down -977K barrels; Gasoline stocks down -2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +20.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.01, to $16.62. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.45 from last week's $8.74. Distillates to $8.17, compared to last week's $8.27.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.3¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.