A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV

Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.

Since the last election blog, the national poll indicates a slight dip in Biden's numbers of -0.1%. Not really significant.

Much ado was made about a certain big poll, for a leading national publication... with statements of how Biden is narrowing the gap to 0.1%, yet still trailing in a poll that had Biden with a 14 point lead just before the 2020 election. An election that had Biden winning by 4.45 points.

However, the electoral votes are what matters, with Biden 306-232 victory, or 13.8 point margin.

BUT, Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes; Arizona by a mere 10,457 votes; Wisconsin by a mere 20,682 votes. If those states had flipped to Trump, it would have tied at 269 electoral votes. Nevada's 33,596 vote margin for Biden could have tipped to Trump and gave Trump the 2020 election.

So a total of 76,514 votes determined the 2020 election, out of a total of 158,594,895 votes cast or a very miniscule amount. Less than 0.049%.

Of course, there is still 198 days before the general election and things can change. Since last election blog, there has been some small changes.

Arizona has seen a very slight increase in Trump's lead; Florida has seen erosion in Biden's numbers; Texas has also seen erosion the Biden's numbers. Minnesota, also sees some slippage for Biden.

North Carolina has seen improvement for Biden, with Trump slipping in Michigan. 

None of the above indicate a change in electoral outlook... at this time.

Back in 2016, Trump rose up from relative obscurity to presidency, even though there was tremendous amounts of negative publicity. Here we are in 2024, with Trump receiving even more negative publicity. 

Perception of the public is hard to gauge, but the public does not have a very high opinion of "government" in general, with trust in government about 16% on recent polls I have seen. The media is constantly reporting government efforts to find Trump guilty of some criminal and/or civil malfeasance. Not sure it is working as planned, imho.

Which leads me to believe that all these court proceedings, are not really bad publicity for Trump.

Just saying...

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Three

In part two, I did a quick peak at current polls, based on just D v R.

Part 3 adds independents, etc., into the mix, although impact is just D and R...

Certainly, my methodology is not very scientific, but it would appear the Kennedy factor is actually harming Trump, more than Biden, although both trend lower with the inclusion of Kennedy.

At this point, Kennedy does not appear anywhere near getting even 1 electoral vote, but the potential to drag voters away from either major party's candidate is possible. However, as stated previously, the impact appears more on the Republican side, rather than the Democrat side. Most notably in Arizona, North Caroline, and Pennsylvania.

The one thing about polls, is people do tend to wish for one thing during poll season, but will vote their party at election time, if republican or democrat. 

Independents might switch back and forth, but generally vote for which major party candidate makes them feel better, or rather... less worse.

2024, an election for the ages, or aged!

In a much to early review of the 2024 election, I provide my totally uneducated, possibly biased, sarcastic, and pragmatic predictions. 

Listed below are the potential candidates for each parties nomination, according to a variety of sources.

I have them listed in reverse order of age, which is age on January 20, 2025, as well as end of 2nd term.

I'll start with the democrats, and quickly eliminate some. An example would be Michelle Obama, as she has very much made it clear... she is not interested. When I look down the list, I quickly realize some of these names have some traction, but not enough to unseat Biden, imho. 

The intrigue within the democrat ranks, would be the VP choice. Replacing Harris might be considered, but is fraught with peril, regarding demographics. I'll be frank... someone that is not old, not male, and not white. That only leaves a couple of choices... so it will be Harris, imho.

DEMOCRATS...

• Joseph Biden  82.2 ~ 86.2
• Bernie Sanders 83.4 ~ 91.4
• Hillary Clinton 77.3 ~ 85.3
• Elizabeth Warren 75.6 ~ 83.6
• Phil Murphy 67.4 ~ 75.4
• Amy Klobuchar 64.7 ~ 72.7
• Michelle Obama 61 ~ 69
• Kamala Harris 60.3 ~ 68.3
• JB Pritzker 60 ~ 68
• Gavin Newsom 57.3 ~ 65.3
• Cory Booker 55.8 ~ 63.8
• Gretchen Whitmer 53.4 ~ 61.4
• Jared Polis 49.7 ~ 57.7
• Ro Khanna 48.4 ~ 56.4
• Pete Buttigieg 43 ~ 51
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 35.3 ~ 43.3

The actual fun, going into 2024, would be the republican race. Trump clouds up everything for the republicans. For all the talk of someone else, at this point, that does not seem likely. Whether you love him or hate him, he is likely the nominee.

The VP choice, is filled with intrigue. There are many that would not make the grade, for a variety of reasons. With the biggest reason, being Trump himself. You would also have to consider 2028, and who might wish to avoid the VP position in 2024, and focus on that 2028 election.

It matters, as in my lifetime... 

• V.P. Barkley was deemed to old and lost the democratic nomination in 1952.
• V.P. Nixon left office in 1961, and made it to the Presidency, in 1969
• V.P. Johnson, assumed office on death of Kennedy (1963), and was elected in 1964.
• V.P. Gerald Ford assumed the Presidency in 1974, following Nixon's resignation, and lost in 1976.
• V.P. GHW Bush became President in 1989.
• V.P. Biden left office in 2017, becoming President in 2021. 

Other than deaths or resignations, the number is four, across 14 different Presidents. So the odds are not so good, imho.

Then you have the potential candidates for V.P., although Pence seemingly came from nowhere and likely based on donor connections. Then there is the toxic relations with many of the other candidates on this list. Seriously, can you imagine Liz Cheney as a Trump V.P. nominee?

Then there is the potential benefit to the ticket. Most are in republican safe states. Could Youngkin deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to the Republicans? Would he influence any other states?

So the V.P. nominee is a crap shoot, imho. 

REPUBLICANS...

• Donald Trump  78.6 ~ 82.6
• John Bolton 76.2 ~ 84.2
• Asa Hutchinson 74.1 ~ 82.1
• Larry Hogan 68.7 ~ 76.7
• Greg Abbott 67.2 ~ 75.2
• Mike Pence 65.6 ~ 73.6
• Chris Christie 62.4 ~ 70.4
• Mike Pompeo 61.1 ~ 69.1
• Tim Scott 59.4 ~ 67.4
• Liz Cheney 58.5 ~ 66.5
• Glenn Youngkin 58.1 ~ 66.1
• Ted Cruz 54.1 ~ 62.1
• Kristi Noem 53.2 ~ 61.2
• Nikki Haley 53 ~ 61
• Chris Sununu 50.2 ~ 58.2
• Will Hurd 47.4 ~ 55.4
• Ron DeSantis 46.4 ~ 54.4
• Vivek Ramaswamy 39.5 ~ 47.5

Now onto the general election. My long history suggests that Democrats will vote Democrat, and Republicans will vote Republican. I cannot believe that many people cross party lines to vote. I will acknowledge that most registrations are based on local politics. 

There are many local races, that are predominately one party locations. Which means the people register to that party, to influence the local primaries. Generally speaking, there are many instances when the winner of the local primary, runs unopposed in the general election.

Nationally, the breakdown of registration is this...

Click image to enlarge

In the last election, the independent vote was split almost evenly. BUT the elections are not based on majority votes, but rather majority Electoral College votes. Please do not start whining about whether it is fair or not... it is constitutional. It's not going to change in the next two years.

So, a look back to 2016... IF about 39,000 votes in a handful of close state races, that went to Trump had voted for Clinton, Clinton would have won that election, with 273 EVs. (Pennsylvania - 22.2k; Michigan - 5.4k; Wisconsin - 11.4k). (Margins were higher, but IF 50.1% had switched votes.)

In 2020, if about 63,000 votes in a handful of close state races, that went to Biden had gone to Trump... Trump would have won the election. (About 21.6k votes in Georgia (5.9k), Arizona (5.3k), and Wisconsin (10.4k) would have tied it, at 269 each. Pennsylvania's 41.4k, would have been over the top, for Trump, at 289.)

Scary ain't it! 

In 2024, pay attention to the "toss-up" states. Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and yes... possibly "hanging chads" Florida. 

Whatever you may think, several factors will weigh heavily on the 2024 election and it should come as no surprise... the hysteria surrounding those several factors. The 2024 election is not a slam dunk for either party. 

The economy will play an enormous factor. At this point, who really knows what will take place, although lies will be the order of the day, from both parties. 

Remember, 2024 will likely hinge on a couple of hundred thousand "independents" in those "toss-up states."

It should be fun to watch. By that, I am hoping to be around to watch it!!

I Voted, But My Rationale Was Probably Different Than Yours

I have long considered the likelihood of media manipulation of the 2016 election. I don't think there was vote fraud, or at least to the extent to alter the election results for 2016 or 2020. I should explain myself. 

I was somewhat puzzled in early 2016, when the center left of the mainstream media, really amped up the noise around a Trump campaign. Afterall, it was a "joke" campaign. However, that "joke" campaign started to erode the legitimacy of more convention Republican candidates, which would be of benefit to those same center left media companies, specifically those... well left of center organizations.

This managed to propel Trump into the republican nomination, which was certain to end in defeat to Clinton. They were so certain of a Clinton victory, it was deemed necessary to show some "balance" by promoting news, that was harmful to Clinton. This was all okay, as Clinton could not conceivably lose.

Yep, there were some shocked people in those newsrooms. It was important to rectify their mistakes by immediately pointing fingers at everyone else. That continued through the 2020 campaign, and finally Trump was ousted. Not by much, as a few thousand votes in certain states could have given Trump victory, just like a swing of a few thousand votes in 2016, would have given Clinton victory.

It is very clear that Trump was a drag on what should have been a victory dance in 2022, for the republicans. The democrats need Trump running loose, to be able to win in 2024. If you cannot see this trap, then you are blind. Basically, Trump needs to sit down and hush, for the republicans to have a shot in 2024.

The democrats need Trump to be front and center, for them to feel good about 2024. That's why I voted to keep Trump banned on twitter. 

Every time Trump tweets, the lamestream media will pounce on it, rebroadcast it, make political hay of it... just to keep Trump in the minds of voters, even ones that are trying to forget him.

Then there is the curious case of Biden. Democrats do not need Biden in 2024. That he was the best the democrats could do in 2020, is a testament to their horrid track record of developing worthwhile candidates. Lest we forget... the republicans gave us Trump. We have to be nearing rock bottom for choices to be between Biden and Trump.

It is time to turn it over to younger people of both parties. Let's start with... say less than 75!!!😎

It's Politics As Usual, or How to Manipulate Weak Minds

As I am biding my time, awaiting this week's EIA Crude and Products report... I thought I would delve into my current frustrations.

Namely, the failure of the fourth estate… or the press, media et al. I blame them for getting Trump elected in the first place. So eager were they to boost ratings, they went right along with the Trump Phenomena early in the race. I am not just referring to that right wing network. It was “must see TV”.

No doubt they were sure Trump could not win a presidency and therefore… pushed him over other republican candidates.

Unfortunately for all, they managed to subvert the 2016 election, in my opinion. It was not the Russians or anyone else. The fourth estate handed that election to Trump. To distance themselves from any blame, they went on the attack, and it was furious. 

I have no quibble with any of that, but they destroyed what little credibility that remained. By 2020, it was clear that truth, like Elvis… had left the building.

The issue I have, is their great fear of a Trump or Trump-like person (Republican) might win in 2024, they have completely lost any civic responsibility… when it comes to a sitting president.

We should not blame Biden for the current inflation…

So... who do I blame? But wait... inflation is everywhere, so don't blame Biden.

Fair enough to blame their inflation on Putin's invasion of Ukraine, but what about the preceding year in the United States?

I have frequently mentioned this...

Take credit for vaccines, $1,400 checks to everyone and then ignore what might happen to supply chains under this new found wealth. But blame it on Supply Chain, logistics, ports, etc. Just don't blame Biden.

• The supply chain is snarled and causing inflation... don't blame Biden. (What really caused the ports to be congested in the first place)?
• This inflation is transitory... don't blame Biden. 
• It's Putin's invasion of Ukraine that is causing inflation... don't blame Biden. (For the past 3 months, but what about the previous 12 months)?
• It's the greedy oil industry, running up prices... don't blame Biden. (Take the energy component out of the CPI and the inflation rate would still be at a 40 year high.)

So great, I won't blame Biden... but who should I blame?

MY MUDDLED THOUGHTS AND ATTEMPTS TO MAKE SENSE OF IT ALL

Normally I write about Inflation and "business" outlook, etc. Recent events have muddled my thoughts and it is hard to make sense of what might happen... so here goes, while acknowledging recent events potential impact.

Inflation 

The BLS CPI report is slated for release on March 10th. THIS REPORT IS FOR FEBRUARY, so would have limited impact from the invasion. The range is 7.6% ~ 7.9%, with the upper end more likely. Pre Invasion expectations for March CPI, being released in April... to be even higher. 

It is those expectations that are going to be heavily impacted by the Ukraine Invasion.

Food

The potential disruption of basic food commodities, have driven multiple items to either all time highs or nearing those all time highs. Wheat, Corn, Barley, Canola, Rice, etc. etc. 

Grains are going up, so what about meats? There is a mixed message compared to a couple of months back, with the likelihood of staying flat. However, while chicken prices are moderating, there are worries about bird flu, etc. 

The CPI has food as about 14% of the average household expense. It should come as no surprise that the above average income households spend less that 14% and below average income households, will spend more that 14%. 

It is about 50/50 of that 14% going to food away from home and food at home. I have no data as to how that breaks out for above and below average income households, so will refrain from positing a guess. I would think the food index will rise month to month and add onto the inflation pressures. 

Energy

While energy makes up only about 8% of the CPI index compared to food's 14%, guess which will get all the media attention! That most of the current significant rises are in the past few days, the March 10th report is considering just the month of February.

I have no doubt the national average for gasoline will reach all time highs and possibly reach $4.5 @ gallon. The previous was in July, 2008 at either $4.11 or $4.17, depending on data source. This level, with everything else staying flat, would push March inflation to 8.5% y/y. For reference, this is in the range of  Jan48 ~ Aug48 preceding a recession; Feb51 ~ Jun 51 Korean War; Dec73 ~ Aug75 Oil embargo resulting in recession and Oct78 ~ Dec81, which straddled two recessions and the Iran Revolution.

I guess I am saying that nothing gets Americans more antsy... than the price of gasoline. Not even...

Ukraine

Certainly I am concerned about the innocent lives being taken and the disruptions to others. It is not lost on me that not a lot will be done, other than taking in refugees, etc. I recall reading where it has become popular in Ukrainian circles to wonder how many more buildings are left in the west, to be lit up with Ukrainian colors. Apparently, they realize this is about the extent of their support. Is that what is called "virtue signaling?"

Here in the USA on social media, it seems the discussion is about all the things we should've, could've or would've done to prevent this. I am not sure how this could have been avoided, short of keeping the U.S.S.R. intact. A right that wasn't ours to make. 

Sure, we might have rejected those former members of the Warsaw Pact from joining NATO, but why? And why did they ask to join NATO? I don't recall NATO countries sending in tanks and overrunning those countries and forcing them to join NATO.

Sadly, we can now see the answer to these questions. Horrifying as it might seem, Russia will eventually pound Ukraine into submission. Then some rebel enclave (Russian) in Moldavia will need to have Russian "peacekeepers", so who will be next?

A couple of other questions might be... Is Putin really that strong? Or are we just that weak? Frankly, the lack of resolve by western countries can be pinned on a very divided public. It should also be pointed out that while a large number of countries voted to condemn the invasion and a very few rejected the U.N. condemnation... the abstentions were by countries with nearly 1/2 of the global population. We in the west need to toughen up or the future will be grim, imo.

Putin

It is not uncommon for idiots such as myself to make stupid statements. To have national leaders uttering such statements is borderline insane. 

Uttering that someone in Putin's inner circle should take him out, is something idiots like me would say. I would suspect that Putin's inner circle are not nice people and have their own vested interests, which might include assuming Putin's leadership position at some point... once their own vested interests are in place and could safely assume that role. In other words, someone that is whispering in Putin's ear and Putin considers as being faithful to him. Possibly even a more sinister version of Putin.

I am reminded of Fidel Castro. Fidel Castro came to power by ousting Fulgencio Batista, a person which was reviled by the US. Castro was treated with open arms, appearing on American Television as some kind of conquering hero... until he quickly lost that mantle and became the most hated by the same groups. It did not take long and led to assassination attempts, severing of diplomatic ties, The Bay of Pigs and finally leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Be damn careful of what you wish.

Summation

I suspect the Ukraine invasion will shortly be displaced on American television as inflation and economic worries become more prominent. As for inflation, the polls seem to indicate that 50% of the American public blames Biden and 25% blame Putin. Which may explain the Administration's reluctance to sever Russian Imports and the Republicans are keen on doing just that. Politics is always in play.

I frequent various European news editions and this will likely be the same, and they have a much bigger dependence on Russia's energy. 

How we got in this shape can and should be discussed, but afterwards we must acknowledge... WE ARE IN THIS SHAPE! What are we DO about it and not just talk about it?

Political Prognosticating

 

via GIPHY

It is important to stir the pot, as well as smoke it. Although I suspect a lot of pot has already been smoked.

Never the less, it is time for me to review the current state of the 2024 presidential election and to properly undertake that assignment, I must review a bit of history.

Throughout my lifetime, there were always those that were strictly far right or far left. A lot of us were caught in the middle. Generally speaking, we decided the election on which candidate was least objectionable. Somehow that seemed to change, going into the 2016 election. Granted, you might say it was earlier, but never was there such a hue and cry as after the 2016 election. Even the 2000 election was somewhat settled amicably. At the most, it was not long for those protesting to fall back into the shadows. If you say 2008 and the tea party, it hasn't really had an impact... other than to taint future republican candidates, and a renewed distaste for a certain democrat.

2016 was as much about not electing Clinton, as anything else. Trump won by 304-227-7 over Clinton. If Clinton had gotten 44,285 more votes in Pennsylvania, it would have been 284-247-7 for Trump. AND if Clinton had gotten 10,705 more votes in Michigan, it would have been 267-263-4 for Trump. AND if Clinton had gotten 22,749 more in votes in Wisconsin, it would have been 273-257-4 for Clinton. A total of 77,739. Granted Clinton had more popular votes, but the elections are decided by electoral votes. If 38,870 voters in those 3 states had voted the opposite... the results would have been different.

So 2020 was about not re-electing Trump. Biden won 306-232. If Trump had gotten 10,458 more votes in Arizona, it would have been 295-243 in favor of Biden. AND if Trump had gotten 11,780 more votes in Georgia, it would have been 279-259, still in favor of Biden. And if 20,683 more votes in Wisconsin had voted in favor of Trump... We would have deadlocked at 269-269. Which would have ended up in Congress, which would likely have resulted in Trump being re-elected, due to the structure of the Constitution surrounding such a matter. If 21,438 voters in those 3 states had voted opposite, the result would have been different.

So forget about the 7M popular vote difference in 2020 or the near 3M popular vote difference in 2016. It really only takes a small swing in critical areas to make a YUGE difference, imo.

Therefore 2024 will hinge on such small swings. There seems to be a lot of glee from the right about the "troubles" of Biden, which in turn means they think he can be beat in 2024 by any Republican. Therefore it would seem almost certain that Trump would take another whack at the Presidency. 

However, I don't think Biden will even attempt to run for re-election in 2024. Harris might give a try, but will fail miserably. That in itself would seem to sabotage the Trump candidacy. If anybody could beat Biden or Harris, then what would be the point of risking a repeat of 2020... when anybody would be better than Trump. 

Been there and done that.

Can It Be True??

The world is falling apart...

Or is it simply misdirection by the Media? Think back a few years BT (Before Trump) and it seemed that chaos ruled the day. Then the chaotic Trump became the focus of the day. He has mostly left the stage.

Now every global distraction makes headlines and the right claims it is misdirection to prevent focus on Biden. There may or may not be truth to any of this... that is contingent on a political point of view. If the media is trying to distract from Biden, they are sure doing a p$$$ poor job. He is the President and the buck stops there.

Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela and China existed BT. China makes the news more than it did BT. Afghanistan is being scrubbed from the news. Iraq coverage is nearly non-existent. Russia is about the same as BT, as is Venezuela, North Korea and Iran. Syria popped up today and I had forgotten about it.

About the only thing I can say is... Trump provided comic relief from the ills of the world. Somehow that doesn't seem right.

Mortgage Rates...

Seems to be going higher and might impact the housing market. This is due to the possibility of the FED reducing purchases of mortgage backed securities. If interest rates were seen to be rising, the push will be on to finance before rates go up further, imo. 

That was once considered the rule. Buy something in today's dollars and pay it off when the future dollar is cheaper... relative to inflation.

Rationing Healthcare...

Apparently, due to being overwhelmed with covid, Alaska has implemented rules where Hospitals can now ration healthcare. Insurance companies had been doing that since... oh the beginning of health insurance. That is probably not a popular statement, but you know it is true.

It isn't an election year.

I ran across this on the AP Website... AP: States and cities slow to spend federal pandemic money. 

All manner of high sounding reasons were given for the limited usage of the pandemic money. They want to be sure it is spent wisely, it would be frivolous to just throw it out there, etc. 

I'm sure it will be sorted out and spent before the run up to the next election. People would forget about it, if it were spent now. But imagine the photo opportunities for politicians seen cutting ribbons or handing out really giant checks during the election campaign. Free publicity is the best publicity, imo.

Think I am being cynical? Doesn't mean I am wrong.