Pump Prices heading up!!

Reviewed this weeks EIA report and observed the current status of inventories. 

Oddly, although domestic consumption is down from last year, the past couple of weeks has shown an increase in that consumption.

Checking the futures market, refinery operating rates, etc., it would certainly appear that prices will continue that upward trend, with gasoline easily rising another 4¢~7¢ and diesel jumping 9¢+.

So Far No Recession

It's been awhile since last post, as I have been very busy.

First up, the CPI report. My personal CPI was 2.4%, which matched the CPI-U. The CPI-W edged up to 2.2%, and the forecast of COLA jumped up quite a bit. 

Yep the forecast numbers have moved upward. Likely to continue upward movement, as the jump in crude prices, will likely shove the index up +0.05%. 

The PPI edged up and got some publicity, which was lacking the previous 2 down months. In any case, the PPI stands at 148.072, compared to last month's 147.884. It had peaked in February at 148.347.

As alluded to earlier... crude prices are jumping, with the likelihood of soon seeing a 10¢ a gallon rise at the pump. How much higher is dependent upon the Middle East, at this point.

The next report of interest, will be the advance retail sales. Projections have that number slipping a bit, which is not inflation adjusted. Therefore a bit lower than the projection.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -8.8¢, or -2.88%. Days supply fell to 25.2. For perspective... last year was 25.7 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -4.2M barrels; Distillates down -1.7M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -12.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +260K barrels.

The total products is still +16.2M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $16.89, to $16.68. Gasoline rose to $7.74, from last week's $7.68. Distillates fell to $8.94, compared to last week's $9.22. Per barrel of diesel is $29.60; Per barrel of gasoline is $17.02. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.7¢ ~ +1.9¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

I will continue to track the Energy Reports for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +1.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -3.2¢, or -1.2%. Days supply fell to 25.4. For perspective... last year was 26.5 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -934K barrels; Distillates down -3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -2.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +519K barrels.

The total products is still +11.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.11, to $16.89. Gasoline fell to $7.67, from last week's $8.38. Distillates rose to $9.22, compared to last week's $8.72. Per barrel of diesel is $30.53; Per barrel of gasoline is $16.86. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -.02¢ ~ +4.2¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -1.3¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -13.3¢, or -4.2%. Days supply rose to 25.5. For perspective... last year was 26.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.4M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +5.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -195K barrels, with the SPR rising +724K barrels.

The total products is still +17.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.41, to $17.11. Gasoline fell to $8.38, from last week's $8.73. Distillates slid to $8.72, compared to last week's $8.68.

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -3.1¢ ~ +4.4¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

We may be nearing the end of downward pressures on gasoline. Just have to wait and see.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - December 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings. 

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.25 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.99, up 43¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.87. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.45. Up 4¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

[While I will continue to track the real earning report for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of real earnings going forward]

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

The 2.749% is above last month's 2.598% is back above the 2.62% of March, 2021, and still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.  

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI stayed steady at 2.9% Y/Y, but rose +0.3% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

The current report card...

My concern going forward, is that several elements of the CPI are at seasonal norms, as in likely to head upward. The various forecasts, seem to agree.

[While I will continue to track the CPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of CPI going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -0.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -20.9¢, or -6.4%. Days supply rose to 24.5. For perspective... last year was 26.2 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -5.1M barrels; Distillates up +3.4M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -3.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +7.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.96, to $17.41. Gasoline fell to $8.73, from last week's $8.76. Distillates slid to $8.68, compared to last week's $9.21.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.4¢ ~ +3.6¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.7¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -17.7¢, or -5.4%. Days supply rose to 24.2. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.8M barrels; Distillates up +416K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -625K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.2M barrels.

The total products is still +9.8M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $18.64, to $17.96. Gasoline fell to $8.76, from last week's $9.46. Distillates rose to $9.21, compared to last week's $9.18.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.9¢ ~ +3.1¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.8¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -24.2¢, or -7.3%. Days supply rose to 23.4. For perspective... last year was 24.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +545K barrels; Distillates down -114K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose -4.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.95, to $18.64. Gasoline rose to $9.46, from last week's $8.99. Distillates rose to $9.18, compared to last week's $8.96.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. +2.3¢ ~ +3.6¢. Supposedly, this will be blamed on missiles in Ukraine, causing price of oil to move.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 15th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.5¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.1¢, or -7.8%. Days supply slid to 22.9. For perspective... last year was 24.0 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +2.1M barrels; Distillates down -199K barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -4.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -5.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +81K barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.00, to $17.95. Gasoline rose to $8.99, from last week's $8.44. Distillates rose to $8.96, compared to last week's $8.57.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.7¢ ~ +3.0¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - November 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted (last month was revised downward)...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.56, up 47¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.85. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.41. Down 46¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - November 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.

The 2.598% is still below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.9% Y/Y, and rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The optimism of returning to the good old days on inflation... is waning for me. Especially given the forecast for November, and energy prices will start to move upward, as is normal on a seasonal basis.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.28¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -31.1¢, or -9.1%. Days supply rosel to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were up across the board , with crude up +1.1M barrels; Distillates up +2.9M barrels; Gasoline stocks up +412K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +263K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +19.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.62, to $17.00. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.44, from last week's $8.45. Distillates rose to $8.57, compared to last week's $8.17.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days. -0.9¢ ~ +3.5¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.