BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - November 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted (last month was revised downward)...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.56, up 47¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.85. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.41. Down 46¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - November 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.

The 2.598% is still below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.9% Y/Y, and rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The optimism of returning to the good old days on inflation... is waning for me. Especially given the forecast for November, and energy prices will start to move upward, as is normal on a seasonal basis.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.28¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -31.1¢, or -9.1%. Days supply rosel to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were up across the board , with crude up +1.1M barrels; Distillates up +2.9M barrels; Gasoline stocks up +412K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +263K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +19.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.62, to $17.00. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.44, from last week's $8.45. Distillates rose to $8.57, compared to last week's $8.17.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days. -0.9¢ ~ +3.5¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

 

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 30th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.9¢, or -10.3%. Days supply fell to 23.3. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days. 

Inventories were down across the board , with crude down +515K barrels; Distillates down -977K barrels; Gasoline stocks down -2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +20.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.01, to $16.62. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.45 from last week's $8.74. Distillates to $8.17, compared to last week's $8.27.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.3¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 23rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -4.1¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -39.4¢, or -11.1%. Days supply rose to 24.0. For perspective... last year was 26.0 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +5.5M barrels; Distillates down -1.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +878K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +25.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.29, to $17.01. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.74 from last week's $8.75. Distillates to $8.27, compared to last week's $8.54.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -2.3¢ ~ +3.1¢. Take your pick. 

Still, nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -38.8¢, or -10.8%. Days supply fell to 23.6. For perspective... last year was 26.1 days. 

Inventories fell across the board , with crude down -2.2M barrels; Distillates down -3.5M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -6.1M barrels, with the SPR rising +952K barrels.

The total products is still +18.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.52, to $17.29. Gasoline rose to $8.75 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $8.54, compared to last week's $8.10.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.8¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now. 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 10th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.29, down 40¢ from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.84. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.56. Up 42¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month. 

The 2.44% is below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.8% Y/Y, but rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The COLA is 2.5%, for 2025.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 9th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.9¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -49.9¢, or -13.5%. Days supply fell to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 26.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +5.8M barrels; Distillates down -3.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -6.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -7.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +12.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $15.70, to $16.52. Gasoline steady to $8.42 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $8.10, compared to last week's $7.83.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -3.2¢ ~ +3.0¢. Take your pick. 

This coming week... only time will tell.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 2nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.17¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -61.8¢, or -16.2%. Days supply jumped to 25.3. For perspective... last year was 27.2 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +3.9M barrels; Distillates down -1.3M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -249K barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +26.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $16.22, to $15.70. Gasoline down to $7.87 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $7.83, compared to last week's $7.80.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -7.5¢ ~ 2.5¢. Take your pick. However, if Iranian petroleum infrastructure were to be somehow hampered... all bets are off, imho.

This coming week... only time will tell.

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 25th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -66.8¢, or -16.5%. Days supply slipped to 24.9. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days.

Inventories slid across the board, with crude slipping -4.5M barrels; Distillates down -2.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -1.5M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -13.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.3M barrels.

The total products is still +31.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread edged up from last week's $15.63, to $16.22. Gasoline up to $8.42 from last week's $8.26. Distillates to $7.80, compared to last week's $7.37.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. 

This coming week... only time will tell.

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -3.0¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -66.8¢, or -17.2%. Days supply edged up to 25. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days.

Inventories were mixed across the board, with crude slipping -1.6M barrels; Distillates up 125K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +69K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -485K barrels, with the SPR rising +655K barrels.

The total products is still +42.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread edged up from last week's $15.39, to $15.63. Gasoline up to $8.26 from last week's $7.82. Distillates to $7.37, compared to last week's $7.57.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Time will tell.

This Week in Petroleum Summary September 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -6.4¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -57.9¢, or -15.1%. Days supply edged up to 24.7. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days.

Inventories were up across the board, with crude up +833K barrels; Distillates up 2.3M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +9.2M barrels, with the SPR rising +279K barrels.

The total products is still +42.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has slid further from last week's $15.60, to $15.39. Gasoline at $7.82 from last week's $7.61. Distillates to $7.57, compared to last week's $7.99.

With the overall spread easing, it is difficult to imagine the pump prices not edging lower, although Diesel may be nearing a bottom

I may be crazy, but the trend of -12¢~15¢ on pump prices, for gasoline and maybe -7¢ on diesel, continues. There is significant potential for pump prices to be under $3 by Christmas... or earlier.