A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV

Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.

Since the last election blog, the national poll indicates a slight dip in Biden's numbers of -0.1%. Not really significant.

Much ado was made about a certain big poll, for a leading national publication... with statements of how Biden is narrowing the gap to 0.1%, yet still trailing in a poll that had Biden with a 14 point lead just before the 2020 election. An election that had Biden winning by 4.45 points.

However, the electoral votes are what matters, with Biden 306-232 victory, or 13.8 point margin.

BUT, Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes; Arizona by a mere 10,457 votes; Wisconsin by a mere 20,682 votes. If those states had flipped to Trump, it would have tied at 269 electoral votes. Nevada's 33,596 vote margin for Biden could have tipped to Trump and gave Trump the 2020 election.

So a total of 76,514 votes determined the 2020 election, out of a total of 158,594,895 votes cast or a very miniscule amount. Less than 0.049%.

Of course, there is still 198 days before the general election and things can change. Since last election blog, there has been some small changes.

Arizona has seen a very slight increase in Trump's lead; Florida has seen erosion in Biden's numbers; Texas has also seen erosion the Biden's numbers. Minnesota, also sees some slippage for Biden.

North Carolina has seen improvement for Biden, with Trump slipping in Michigan. 

None of the above indicate a change in electoral outlook... at this time.

Back in 2016, Trump rose up from relative obscurity to presidency, even though there was tremendous amounts of negative publicity. Here we are in 2024, with Trump receiving even more negative publicity. 

Perception of the public is hard to gauge, but the public does not have a very high opinion of "government" in general, with trust in government about 16% on recent polls I have seen. The media is constantly reporting government efforts to find Trump guilty of some criminal and/or civil malfeasance. Not sure it is working as planned, imho.

Which leads me to believe that all these court proceedings, are not really bad publicity for Trump.

Just saying...

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Three

In part two, I did a quick peak at current polls, based on just D v R.

Part 3 adds independents, etc., into the mix, although impact is just D and R...

Certainly, my methodology is not very scientific, but it would appear the Kennedy factor is actually harming Trump, more than Biden, although both trend lower with the inclusion of Kennedy.

At this point, Kennedy does not appear anywhere near getting even 1 electoral vote, but the potential to drag voters away from either major party's candidate is possible. However, as stated previously, the impact appears more on the Republican side, rather than the Democrat side. Most notably in Arizona, North Caroline, and Pennsylvania.

The one thing about polls, is people do tend to wish for one thing during poll season, but will vote their party at election time, if republican or democrat. 

Independents might switch back and forth, but generally vote for which major party candidate makes them feel better, or rather... less worse.

2024, an election for the ages, or aged!

In a much to early review of the 2024 election, I provide my totally uneducated, possibly biased, sarcastic, and pragmatic predictions. 

Listed below are the potential candidates for each parties nomination, according to a variety of sources.

I have them listed in reverse order of age, which is age on January 20, 2025, as well as end of 2nd term.

I'll start with the democrats, and quickly eliminate some. An example would be Michelle Obama, as she has very much made it clear... she is not interested. When I look down the list, I quickly realize some of these names have some traction, but not enough to unseat Biden, imho. 

The intrigue within the democrat ranks, would be the VP choice. Replacing Harris might be considered, but is fraught with peril, regarding demographics. I'll be frank... someone that is not old, not male, and not white. That only leaves a couple of choices... so it will be Harris, imho.

DEMOCRATS...

• Joseph Biden  82.2 ~ 86.2
• Bernie Sanders 83.4 ~ 91.4
• Hillary Clinton 77.3 ~ 85.3
• Elizabeth Warren 75.6 ~ 83.6
• Phil Murphy 67.4 ~ 75.4
• Amy Klobuchar 64.7 ~ 72.7
• Michelle Obama 61 ~ 69
• Kamala Harris 60.3 ~ 68.3
• JB Pritzker 60 ~ 68
• Gavin Newsom 57.3 ~ 65.3
• Cory Booker 55.8 ~ 63.8
• Gretchen Whitmer 53.4 ~ 61.4
• Jared Polis 49.7 ~ 57.7
• Ro Khanna 48.4 ~ 56.4
• Pete Buttigieg 43 ~ 51
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 35.3 ~ 43.3

The actual fun, going into 2024, would be the republican race. Trump clouds up everything for the republicans. For all the talk of someone else, at this point, that does not seem likely. Whether you love him or hate him, he is likely the nominee.

The VP choice, is filled with intrigue. There are many that would not make the grade, for a variety of reasons. With the biggest reason, being Trump himself. You would also have to consider 2028, and who might wish to avoid the VP position in 2024, and focus on that 2028 election.

It matters, as in my lifetime... 

• V.P. Barkley was deemed to old and lost the democratic nomination in 1952.
• V.P. Nixon left office in 1961, and made it to the Presidency, in 1969
• V.P. Johnson, assumed office on death of Kennedy (1963), and was elected in 1964.
• V.P. Gerald Ford assumed the Presidency in 1974, following Nixon's resignation, and lost in 1976.
• V.P. GHW Bush became President in 1989.
• V.P. Biden left office in 2017, becoming President in 2021. 

Other than deaths or resignations, the number is four, across 14 different Presidents. So the odds are not so good, imho.

Then you have the potential candidates for V.P., although Pence seemingly came from nowhere and likely based on donor connections. Then there is the toxic relations with many of the other candidates on this list. Seriously, can you imagine Liz Cheney as a Trump V.P. nominee?

Then there is the potential benefit to the ticket. Most are in republican safe states. Could Youngkin deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to the Republicans? Would he influence any other states?

So the V.P. nominee is a crap shoot, imho. 

REPUBLICANS...

• Donald Trump  78.6 ~ 82.6
• John Bolton 76.2 ~ 84.2
• Asa Hutchinson 74.1 ~ 82.1
• Larry Hogan 68.7 ~ 76.7
• Greg Abbott 67.2 ~ 75.2
• Mike Pence 65.6 ~ 73.6
• Chris Christie 62.4 ~ 70.4
• Mike Pompeo 61.1 ~ 69.1
• Tim Scott 59.4 ~ 67.4
• Liz Cheney 58.5 ~ 66.5
• Glenn Youngkin 58.1 ~ 66.1
• Ted Cruz 54.1 ~ 62.1
• Kristi Noem 53.2 ~ 61.2
• Nikki Haley 53 ~ 61
• Chris Sununu 50.2 ~ 58.2
• Will Hurd 47.4 ~ 55.4
• Ron DeSantis 46.4 ~ 54.4
• Vivek Ramaswamy 39.5 ~ 47.5

Now onto the general election. My long history suggests that Democrats will vote Democrat, and Republicans will vote Republican. I cannot believe that many people cross party lines to vote. I will acknowledge that most registrations are based on local politics. 

There are many local races, that are predominately one party locations. Which means the people register to that party, to influence the local primaries. Generally speaking, there are many instances when the winner of the local primary, runs unopposed in the general election.

Nationally, the breakdown of registration is this...

Click image to enlarge

In the last election, the independent vote was split almost evenly. BUT the elections are not based on majority votes, but rather majority Electoral College votes. Please do not start whining about whether it is fair or not... it is constitutional. It's not going to change in the next two years.

So, a look back to 2016... IF about 39,000 votes in a handful of close state races, that went to Trump had voted for Clinton, Clinton would have won that election, with 273 EVs. (Pennsylvania - 22.2k; Michigan - 5.4k; Wisconsin - 11.4k). (Margins were higher, but IF 50.1% had switched votes.)

In 2020, if about 63,000 votes in a handful of close state races, that went to Biden had gone to Trump... Trump would have won the election. (About 21.6k votes in Georgia (5.9k), Arizona (5.3k), and Wisconsin (10.4k) would have tied it, at 269 each. Pennsylvania's 41.4k, would have been over the top, for Trump, at 289.)

Scary ain't it! 

In 2024, pay attention to the "toss-up" states. Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and yes... possibly "hanging chads" Florida. 

Whatever you may think, several factors will weigh heavily on the 2024 election and it should come as no surprise... the hysteria surrounding those several factors. The 2024 election is not a slam dunk for either party. 

The economy will play an enormous factor. At this point, who really knows what will take place, although lies will be the order of the day, from both parties. 

Remember, 2024 will likely hinge on a couple of hundred thousand "independents" in those "toss-up states."

It should be fun to watch. By that, I am hoping to be around to watch it!!

Early Thoughts For 2023

That lying scumbag...

Which one you ask? I forgot his name, but a congressman-elect. Again which one? The one from N.Y. (I think). But, which one? The one in news, regarding his mother dying on 9-11, and again a few years back. George Santos (googled) might be his name, but does anyone really know?

In any case, there is a bill supposedly being introduced to make lying a crime... for a politician. One can only imagine how jammed up the courts would be, with something like that. Frankly, I would wonder about a politician's integrity, that proposed such a thing. Classic misdirection, imho.

In any case, he was duly elected, so stop asking for do overs. You sound like Trump, which is not a good thing, imho. 

Yes, there may be some skullduggery around how he obtained his wealth, but once again... tread lightly. There are a lot of politicians seemingly getting rich on small salaries. 

An ethics investigation is warranted, but would seem to require investigators with ethics. 

One of those other lying scumbags...

I won't draw this out... Trump. There are many items on this list. After years of proclaiming Trump is a liar, the media and certain politicians acted surprised, that his tax returns did not match his public pronouncements. That was the only proof of his lying? Did he actually lie on his income tax returns? That is up for debate, discussion, whatever.

Then we have "authoritative" people saying that Trump can't run in 2024, because of charges of insurrection. Due process and they know it. That insurrection charge has to be litigated in court. I would expect the Justice Department to take it under their advisement, then slow walk it into early 2024, then claim it would be improper to consider it in an election year. 

That's fancy talk for keeping Trump in the public eye. Crazy! Not really, as he can't win in 2024. He can divide the conservative base and ensure a democratic landslide. That's really what it is all about. Even if the republicans wake up to this scenario... they are still left with Trump in the news, as it would be a flight of fancy to think Trump, would bow out gracefully.

A show trial will not happen, as the potential for a hung jury would loom large. Such an action would have massive implications for the republic, imho.

Of course, there is the possibility that all the conspiracy theories are proven as being true, but it would require quite a conspiracy to pull that off. 

Electoral College...

It is old, antiquated, no longer necessary, etc. Except it will continue to be around for a very long time. The closest threat, was the National Popular Vote attempt. Last I heard is was stuck at 195 and would require additional states with a combined 75 electoral votes... to push it over the finish line. After this last census, is 195 still the current number, or has it slipped a bit?

Of course, there is a constitutional amendment, which could be proposed. It would require 2/3's of each chamber in congress and then... 3/4's of the state legislatures must ratify the amendment. It has been nearly 31 years, since an amendment was ratified (27th) and it was a fluke... considering it was one of the original amendments proposed, back during the bill of rights days.

Prior to that, it was the 26th, or "right to vote" lowering the age to 18. That was over 51 years ago. 

If you are expecting an amendment or popular vote movement... you are in for a long wait.

The other option is if 3/4's of the states request a constitutional convention. Be very careful, as it was a constitutional convention called to remedy flaws in the Articles of Confederation... which led to an all new and current constitution. 

There is already disagreement as to whether this has happened. Apparently, some word differences in the wording of various state convention requests have held it at bay. As it stands right now... 19 states have passed the muster and another 22 are "thinking" about it. TPTB, do not want a constitutional convention, because everything is up for grabs, AND the potential for breaking apart the republic... is very real. 

Article VII

The Ratification of the Conventions of nine States, shall be sufficient for the Establishment of this Constitution between the States so ratifying the Same.

If you wanted to join, you had to ratify. Think about it.  

Makes for great fodder to pander to the public about the need for electoral reform in defense of democracy, BUT... those folks in Philadelphia, so long ago, nearly failed to create the current constitution... due to distrust of apportionment of Representatives. The small states were finding it unacceptable.

Then along came the Connecticut Compromise, which then lead to 2 senators per state and the electoral college for Presidential elections, which broke the deadlock. Something about "tyranny of the majority."

It ain't happening!

I Voted, But My Rationale Was Probably Different Than Yours

I have long considered the likelihood of media manipulation of the 2016 election. I don't think there was vote fraud, or at least to the extent to alter the election results for 2016 or 2020. I should explain myself. 

I was somewhat puzzled in early 2016, when the center left of the mainstream media, really amped up the noise around a Trump campaign. Afterall, it was a "joke" campaign. However, that "joke" campaign started to erode the legitimacy of more convention Republican candidates, which would be of benefit to those same center left media companies, specifically those... well left of center organizations.

This managed to propel Trump into the republican nomination, which was certain to end in defeat to Clinton. They were so certain of a Clinton victory, it was deemed necessary to show some "balance" by promoting news, that was harmful to Clinton. This was all okay, as Clinton could not conceivably lose.

Yep, there were some shocked people in those newsrooms. It was important to rectify their mistakes by immediately pointing fingers at everyone else. That continued through the 2020 campaign, and finally Trump was ousted. Not by much, as a few thousand votes in certain states could have given Trump victory, just like a swing of a few thousand votes in 2016, would have given Clinton victory.

It is very clear that Trump was a drag on what should have been a victory dance in 2022, for the republicans. The democrats need Trump running loose, to be able to win in 2024. If you cannot see this trap, then you are blind. Basically, Trump needs to sit down and hush, for the republicans to have a shot in 2024.

The democrats need Trump to be front and center, for them to feel good about 2024. That's why I voted to keep Trump banned on twitter. 

Every time Trump tweets, the lamestream media will pounce on it, rebroadcast it, make political hay of it... just to keep Trump in the minds of voters, even ones that are trying to forget him.

Then there is the curious case of Biden. Democrats do not need Biden in 2024. That he was the best the democrats could do in 2020, is a testament to their horrid track record of developing worthwhile candidates. Lest we forget... the republicans gave us Trump. We have to be nearing rock bottom for choices to be between Biden and Trump.

It is time to turn it over to younger people of both parties. Let's start with... say less than 75!!!😎

Political Prognosticating

 

via GIPHY

It is important to stir the pot, as well as smoke it. Although I suspect a lot of pot has already been smoked.

Never the less, it is time for me to review the current state of the 2024 presidential election and to properly undertake that assignment, I must review a bit of history.

Throughout my lifetime, there were always those that were strictly far right or far left. A lot of us were caught in the middle. Generally speaking, we decided the election on which candidate was least objectionable. Somehow that seemed to change, going into the 2016 election. Granted, you might say it was earlier, but never was there such a hue and cry as after the 2016 election. Even the 2000 election was somewhat settled amicably. At the most, it was not long for those protesting to fall back into the shadows. If you say 2008 and the tea party, it hasn't really had an impact... other than to taint future republican candidates, and a renewed distaste for a certain democrat.

2016 was as much about not electing Clinton, as anything else. Trump won by 304-227-7 over Clinton. If Clinton had gotten 44,285 more votes in Pennsylvania, it would have been 284-247-7 for Trump. AND if Clinton had gotten 10,705 more votes in Michigan, it would have been 267-263-4 for Trump. AND if Clinton had gotten 22,749 more in votes in Wisconsin, it would have been 273-257-4 for Clinton. A total of 77,739. Granted Clinton had more popular votes, but the elections are decided by electoral votes. If 38,870 voters in those 3 states had voted the opposite... the results would have been different.

So 2020 was about not re-electing Trump. Biden won 306-232. If Trump had gotten 10,458 more votes in Arizona, it would have been 295-243 in favor of Biden. AND if Trump had gotten 11,780 more votes in Georgia, it would have been 279-259, still in favor of Biden. And if 20,683 more votes in Wisconsin had voted in favor of Trump... We would have deadlocked at 269-269. Which would have ended up in Congress, which would likely have resulted in Trump being re-elected, due to the structure of the Constitution surrounding such a matter. If 21,438 voters in those 3 states had voted opposite, the result would have been different.

So forget about the 7M popular vote difference in 2020 or the near 3M popular vote difference in 2016. It really only takes a small swing in critical areas to make a YUGE difference, imo.

Therefore 2024 will hinge on such small swings. There seems to be a lot of glee from the right about the "troubles" of Biden, which in turn means they think he can be beat in 2024 by any Republican. Therefore it would seem almost certain that Trump would take another whack at the Presidency. 

However, I don't think Biden will even attempt to run for re-election in 2024. Harris might give a try, but will fail miserably. That in itself would seem to sabotage the Trump candidacy. If anybody could beat Biden or Harris, then what would be the point of risking a repeat of 2020... when anybody would be better than Trump. 

Been there and done that.

Can It Be True??

The world is falling apart...

Or is it simply misdirection by the Media? Think back a few years BT (Before Trump) and it seemed that chaos ruled the day. Then the chaotic Trump became the focus of the day. He has mostly left the stage.

Now every global distraction makes headlines and the right claims it is misdirection to prevent focus on Biden. There may or may not be truth to any of this... that is contingent on a political point of view. If the media is trying to distract from Biden, they are sure doing a p$$$ poor job. He is the President and the buck stops there.

Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela and China existed BT. China makes the news more than it did BT. Afghanistan is being scrubbed from the news. Iraq coverage is nearly non-existent. Russia is about the same as BT, as is Venezuela, North Korea and Iran. Syria popped up today and I had forgotten about it.

About the only thing I can say is... Trump provided comic relief from the ills of the world. Somehow that doesn't seem right.

Mortgage Rates...

Seems to be going higher and might impact the housing market. This is due to the possibility of the FED reducing purchases of mortgage backed securities. If interest rates were seen to be rising, the push will be on to finance before rates go up further, imo. 

That was once considered the rule. Buy something in today's dollars and pay it off when the future dollar is cheaper... relative to inflation.

Rationing Healthcare...

Apparently, due to being overwhelmed with covid, Alaska has implemented rules where Hospitals can now ration healthcare. Insurance companies had been doing that since... oh the beginning of health insurance. That is probably not a popular statement, but you know it is true.

It isn't an election year.

I ran across this on the AP Website... AP: States and cities slow to spend federal pandemic money. 

All manner of high sounding reasons were given for the limited usage of the pandemic money. They want to be sure it is spent wisely, it would be frivolous to just throw it out there, etc. 

I'm sure it will be sorted out and spent before the run up to the next election. People would forget about it, if it were spent now. But imagine the photo opportunities for politicians seen cutting ribbons or handing out really giant checks during the election campaign. Free publicity is the best publicity, imo.

Think I am being cynical? Doesn't mean I am wrong.