PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - November 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted (last month was revised downward)...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.56, up 47¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.85. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.41. Down 46¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - November 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.

The 2.598% is still below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.9% Y/Y, and rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The optimism of returning to the good old days on inflation... is waning for me. Especially given the forecast for November, and energy prices will start to move upward, as is normal on a seasonal basis.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 10th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.29, down 40¢ from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.84. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.56. Up 42¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month. 

The 2.44% is below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.8% Y/Y, but rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The COLA is 2.5%, for 2025.

PPI September 2024 release with August 2024 Data

The BLS has released the September 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of August.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.

The report card continues to indicate easing of inflation. 

 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - September 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.21 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.47, up from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.83. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.36. Up 74¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - September 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase. The food index increased 0.1 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for food at home was unchanged. The energy index fell 0.8 percent over the month, after being unchanged the preceding month.

The 2.53% is finally below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.7% Y/Y, but rose +0.1% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

So the likelihood of 2.5% is very real, with an outside potential for 2.4%. That 2.6% from last month's projection is very, very... not likely.

We'll see next month.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - August 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent over the month, and the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. 

It was a bit below the expectations of 3.0% on the annual, and the 0.2% was seasonally adjusted up from the actual 0.116%. So not so bad, and in fact... fairly decent.

For the record: February 2021, 1.7%; March 2021, 2.6%. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y, but slid -0.2% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

That's it for this month's CPI... maybe!

Uhoh!! Edited at 10:30PM, 8-14-2024. changes made to COLA projections, based on +0.1%~+0.2% August projection and September at -0.1%~+0.1%. The likelihood of 2.5% COLA is now very likely. imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - August 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.19 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $382.54, down from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.80. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 330.40. Down 50¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - July 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.18 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. 

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $383.49.

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.79.

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 329.92.

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - July 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. [emphasis added]

A lot of chatter about this being the first negative in 4 years and means rate cuts are an almost certainty. 

A bit of reality... From the December 2022 report. 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.

For the record, the FED increased rates 4 times by 25 basis points each , starting on 2-1-2023, 3-22-2023, 5-3-2023, and 7-26-2023.

That is in no way suggesting further rate hikes, but should dampen the enthusiasm, given a couple of key phrases in the CPI release. The drop in gasoline prices have probably hit bottom and could inch up in July. To put it in perspective, that -0.1% adjusted would have been more like +0.1% adjusted. That 0.0% unadjusted, would have been +0.2% unadjusted.

Likely, the month to month for July, will indicate something like +0.2% ~ +0.3%, when kicking in the anticipated increase in food, especially the food away from home.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.1% Y/Y and 0.1% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

Don't get me wrong, I would rather the COLA goes lower, as that indicates less inflation. I do, however, need to adjust my spending, or suck it up.

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.