It's Been Awhile

Finally some more reports coming out from the government services, with PPI and Retail Sales. Granted it is still a month behind, as October data should be out. 

Inflation did edge up in September on the CPI and PPI. Real Earnings were recently released as well. The latter slipped down a bit, with the exception on weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory.

Retails sales edged up before inflation adjustments, which let it slip a bit.

Looking inside the numbers, it would appear "Brick and Mortar" department stores continue to slide, as well as those companies that sell brick and mortar...building supplies etc. It would also appear the hobbies are taking a hit as well... sporting goods, etc.

Week Ending Report-August 16th, 2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

CPI

Real earnings

Petroleum

Producer Price Index

Retail Sales

The inflation report was rather benign and met expectations. The oddity was in the CPI-W, which directly relates to C.O.L.A. It was a mild 2.5% y/y. The previous projection was a 2.6%~2.7% cola, which now moves a bit down to 2.5%~2.7%.

The Real Earnings moved up and is +1.2% above one year ago. As this is inflation adjusted, the earnings are +3.7% above one year ago.

The petroleum report shows an increase in both crude and distillate supplies. Gasoline supply edged a shade lower.

Produce Price Index was rather ugly, with a substantial jump across the board. Just as last month's PPI foreshadowed a benign July CPI... August will be a wake up call, imo. On top of that, the forecast for PPI is even higher... going forward.

I am not exactly happy, as my current CPI is 3.0% and possibly climbing, with COLA far behind.

The current status of the report card...

Advance Retail Sales

Not a bad report on the surface.

OPINION time:

In a previous post I questioned the accuracy of some government reports. The retail sales would be one example. The issue being with revisions. Below is a snapshot of cumulative revisions of advance sales going back about 2 1/2 years. Revisions are not unheard of, but the pattern is suggestive of something being off. 

The pattern HAD been the previous couple of months being revised downward, which inevitably shows a brighter current report. This had been almost a monthly occurrence, of the past couple of years. Now it should be noted that historically, April has been an across the board revision of everything.

Going forward, it will be interesting to observe if the revision pattern continues, although the monthly pattern has broken towards upward revisions for previous month's data, which would suppress the joy of a current report. It does seem suspicious, imho.

While the overall picture seems okay, with the exception of the PPI... a glimmer of hope seems to be in the PPI being a month blip, as following forecasts indicate flat to negative.

Week Ending Report-August 9th, 2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

Trade Report

Petroleum Report

The international trade numbers are self explanatory in the linked report.

As for the petroleum report, usage of gasoline continues to drift downward, with pump prices in a narrow range. 

There is the potential for a hurricane in the next couple of weeks, but it is largely forecast to be near the east coast and not the gulf coast, or whatever you want to call it.

OPINION time:

Barely any movement in inflation expectations, although a slight move upward from now into the 4th quarter is in the offing. 

3rd Qtr. GDP projections remain positive, although barely, with 4th quarter in the same range and an uptick by first of year.

I guess if I were a president of a country at war and had suspended elections, knowing I wouldn't be re-elected... I would likely resist any form of peace, even if my citizens continued to die. Especially if the fighting was supported with foreign tax dollars... whether directly or through military munitions.

Week Ending Report-8-02-2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

GDP

Personal Income and Outlays

Weekly Crude Oil Report

The GDP exceeded forecasts, but not really by that much. It was just as much about the trade and services deficit, as was the first quarter negative. 

Personal Income and outlays was mostly positive. Here is the July Report card, which includes several variables.

A lot of pink, which is inflation heating up, but oddly... the PPI seems to be slipping. So maybe inflation is cooling. 

Also, of note... the report card was not updated to PCE revisions for prior months.

Here is the latest...

Here was previous month, with revisions highlighted...

There are always some revisions of Government numbers, but the past few years have been quite noticeable, imo. More on my opinion later.

The petroleum report continues to astound me, as U.S. consumption is well below last year.

OPINION time:

The firing of a government official in charge of employment numbers caused great gnashing of teeth. I have a different view than some of the current pundits. 

Those employment numbers have been suspect for some time. The past few years have seen monthly reports heralding better than expected hiring, with hardly any mention of prior months downward revisions. 

The aforementioned was a near monthly occurrence, with even a massive one time downward revision for several months prior... again without media comment. It was very hard to ignore the possibility of political intervention. And if not political intervention... then very lackluster data collection, of which improvement is much needed.

I should probably mention that many reports from the government are in constant revision stage. Contrary to public opinion... I consider the inflation reports to be the most accurate and reliable. The employment numbers being the least reliable. The rest fall in between those two, imo.

Week Ending Report-7-26-2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php 

Much was made of the -9.3% drop in Durable Goods from May, but the spin doctors overlooked the +16.5% rise for the previous month. Year to date from 2024, is up 7.9%. Probably why the spin didn't last very long. 

As for the petroleum sector, gasoline usage has fallen considerably on a 4 week moving average. Down -5.2% from year ago levels and -2.9% from last week. The inventory of gasoline slipped a bit, but the day's supply is increasing. 

Probably why pump prices are staying stagnant, compared to my last forecast. Not sure why the drop, which could be indicative of a slowing economy, although much of that data is contradictory. 

In any case, the sharp drop off is unexpected, at least to me.

Some meaningless thoughts...

The Late Show... I stopped watching the late show, early on in Colbert's tenure. His brand of humor did not match mine. Why the show is being canceled is beyond my realm of thought. Even if it were, I am not part of that important demographic.

Epstein files... I would have thought any Trump connections would have been exposed during his last term. Certainly during the Biden years. Perhaps the whole darn bunch have their names listed on... some yet to be released "file".

Clinton Saga... I am not a fan, but she is largely irrelevant, imho. It is good to know that most of the political back in forth is now focusing on days gone by. Maybe we will eventually move past all of this.

Or is the political news cycle a couple of decades behind?

Week Ending Report-7-19-2025

Several reports from the week, including...

CPI- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm

PPI- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm

Real Earnings- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm

Advance Retail- https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Petroleum- https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php

A brief snapshot of CPI, CPI-W, CPI-E, PPI...

A lot of pink on everything, but the PPI, which seems to have flattened out. The PPI forecast is a bit of upward movement over the next couple of months, but then descending. 

The Cost of Living Adjustment outlook, has edged upward...

The real earnings report, indicated a slippage in real earnings. 

The retail sales remains fairly flat, when factoring in inflation...

On the petroleum side, it would appear diesel prices are set to accelerate higher, while gasoline appears to be edging slightly higher.

In reality, the big story should have been the downward projections of the PPI, in the face of tariffs. 

That's about it, as I have nothing more to say.

Advance Retail Sales

The numbers came out today... https://tinyurl.com/2tjb5w36

Automotive and Home Improvement stores were almost the entirety of the slippage. 

It does indicate some slippage in inflation adjusted, but still within the range from March, 2021... to present. Very near the median and average for that period of time. 

Of course, the impact of tariffs cannot be ascertained by this report. On the surface... what the impact is, the economy is adjusting, or so it seems. 

So Far No Recession

It's been awhile since last post, as I have been very busy.

First up, the CPI report. My personal CPI was 2.4%, which matched the CPI-U. The CPI-W edged up to 2.2%, and the forecast of COLA jumped up quite a bit. 

Yep the forecast numbers have moved upward. Likely to continue upward movement, as the jump in crude prices, will likely shove the index up +0.05%. 

The PPI edged up and got some publicity, which was lacking the previous 2 down months. In any case, the PPI stands at 148.072, compared to last month's 147.884. It had peaked in February at 148.347.

As alluded to earlier... crude prices are jumping, with the likelihood of soon seeing a 10¢ a gallon rise at the pump. How much higher is dependent upon the Middle East, at this point.

The next report of interest, will be the advance retail sales. Projections have that number slipping a bit, which is not inflation adjusted. Therefore a bit lower than the projection.

Producer Price Index and some other opinions

The Producer Price Index was released this morning and indicated an upturn.

Note that I did not revise the December, 2024 final demand, as did the BLS. Yes, December was revised upward to 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142025.htm

The nervous nellies will scream inflation is roaring back. Maybe so, but it will not repeat the horrors of 2021~2022. How can I say that? Once you understand the causes, the answer becomes easy.

• After the covid shutdown and collapse of international trade, the shipping industry was in disarray, with containers to move goods... in all the wrong places.
• Retailers had significantly reduced inventories to meet the slowing demand.
• There was a rather large stimulus paid to American citizens, on top of some previous payouts.
• The covid vaccine was becoming rapidly available.
• The American people were told that it was now safe to resume normal activities.
• An impending west coast port strike for mid 2022, which did not materialize.

Newly freed from fear Americans started immediately spending that stimulus money, which boosted retail sales by 10% in the first month.  The retailers, started ramping up orders significantly to restock the shelves, which exposed the problems with the shipping containers. This was compounded by retailers, pulling orders well ahead to heavily stock up... prior to the threatened west coast port strike. 

The shipping industry has finally recovered, the retail inventories have reached stability, and there are no strike threats on the horizon. There was consideration of a possible port strike on the east coast and gulf, which did increase orders, as well as impending tariff expectations, which also increased orders. 

The port strike is in the rear view mirror and the shipping industry sailed through it easily. The tariff question is still to be answered.

As a further note on retail sales... when adjusted for inflation, they have remained at that March, 2021 level. That will likely be the indicator of future demand... or lack thereof. 

Tariffs would likely weaken demand, so the expectation of massive inflation due to tariffs... not so much.

A Few Reports and some opinions... of course!

The CPI came out today and now that Trump is in office, it has suddenly turned terrible. Nevermind, it is for January, so remarkable for just 11 days in office. /s

The media's memory is a bit wacky, with claims that it has suddenly shifted upward, even though the lowest annual rate since February 2021 was this past September.

A trip down memory lane...

The real earnings report has been ignored and for good reason... weekly wages, when adjusted for inflation have now fallen back to June, 2024 levels. That's seven months, since weekly wages adjusted for inflation have been this low.

Note: The BLS reports both CPI and Real Earnings.

As for the energy report from the EIA, not much in extreme changes. Pump prices will likely rise, but should be noted... still below year ago levels. Of course, the rise will become political, as everything else.

Tariffs... A lot of talk about the damaging effects of tariffs, but the whole matter of FTZ status of dozens of companies have been ignored. A FTZ or "Foreign Trade Zone" status, means a company pays no tariffs, until the end product is sold to the public. There are many large and small companies with FTZs, which include energy companies (refineries, etc.) and automobile companies with their component assemblies. 

Once you understand the magnitude of FTZs, then you should consider that tariffs have long been in existence. 

Another serious argument put forth by many... is the Smoot Hawley act devastated the U.S. Economy during the depression, or at least made it worse. Not sure correlation was causation for this period. It does give the trade aficionados a talking point.

Yes, tariffs will cause inflation. However, off shoring of goods was a primary reason for the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. We basically beat inflation, by utilizing cheap foreign labor. We cannot hope to restore the middle class, without reshoring. 

It really is that simple. 

Advance Retail Sales Report- December 17th, 2024

November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023. Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.75% annual, and down 0.05% on the month. 

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

There us an upward trend in inflation adjusted sales, but have not regained the level of January, 2023.

Pay close attention to the data, as 70% of that advance from last month was "auto and other motor veh. dealers."

The question is why such a sudden jump? Not that I am questioning the data, as it mirrors the recently released SAAR, which was also a sharp rise... which was unexpected. So what is causing these unexpected numbers?

While I will continue to track the Advance Retail Sales for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of Advance Retail Sales going forward]

PPI - Dec. 2024 release with Nov. 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.  

As for the report card, it indicates inflationary pressures currently exist, with upward pressure into the future.

While the forecasts are not screaming rampant inflation, we should consider that we are currently at historical low points of monthly inflation... meaning the rate will pick up in the coming year, without the pending threat of tariffs.

[While I will continue to track the PPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of PPI going forward]

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - December 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings. 

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.25 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.99, up 43¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.87. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.45. Up 4¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

[While I will continue to track the real earning report for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of real earnings going forward]

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

The 2.749% is above last month's 2.598% is back above the 2.62% of March, 2021, and still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.  

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI stayed steady at 2.9% Y/Y, but rose +0.3% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

The current report card...

My concern going forward, is that several elements of the CPI are at seasonal norms, as in likely to head upward. The various forecasts, seem to agree.

[While I will continue to track the CPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of CPI going forward]

My electricity bills over time (November, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI. 

The October bill came in much higher than last year. +16.2% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is up +0.4% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy, as it is below other cost of living factors.

[EDIT: 12-17-24. While I will continue to track the my electricity usage for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of said usage going forward]

Advance Retail Sales Report- November 17th, 2024

October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023. Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

 Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.6% annual, and up 0.12% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

I will allow you to review the data from the Census Bureau, and make your own judgements. 

PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - November 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted (last month was revised downward)...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.56, up 47¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.85. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.41. Down 46¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - November 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.

The 2.598% is still below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.9% Y/Y, and rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The optimism of returning to the good old days on inflation... is waning for me. Especially given the forecast for November, and energy prices will start to move upward, as is normal on a seasonal basis.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- October, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following..

I suspect the USA number, might edge up in the upcoming month, but while I will continue to track, this should wrap up the blogging portion... or not.