Another week with the crude report from EIA.GOV.

Let's get the inventory numbers out of the way...

There is some y/y decline in the 4 week average of consumption...

Pump prices are somewhat steady on the gasoline side, although edging up on the diesel side. 

The prices still haven't broken through the 2022 highs and would have a long way to go in inflation adjusted dollars. The inflation adjusted figures are even more startling for 2008.

There is an old saying that we should learn from our mistakes. But are we able to learn from our mistakes, if we constantly blame others???

Should I Start Posting Again... or Not!

It has been awhile, although I have kept abreast of a few things.

First up... is inventory status of select energy components in the USA.

The SPR status is slowly declining, with the unknown being how much spoilage is there. At current rates of withdrawal, about 50 weeks remain... IF there is no spoilage. The Cushing inventory, which is included in the Crude numbers... is low, but not critical, given historical number. 

Of course, the BIG story is pump prices of gasoline. 

I would be a bit more concerned with the Diesel prices, but hey...

Gasoline consumption is -1.7% from last year, with it being -0.4% from last week. Whatever the price, the consumer seems to be adjusting, although still complaining. 

Looking forward, and based on current market pricing...

An uptick in gasoline is in the offing, but the diesel is set to rise rather swiftly, imo.

That finishes up this episode of an old guy foolishly expressing his opinion.

Some thought on May 7th, 2026... about energy, etc.

It's been awhile since posting, although I never really stopped tracking. 

Current U.S. inventories, compared to last week and 1 year ago.

Not terribly tight and I really don't see a significant drop off in U.S. consumer purchasing at the pump. Distillate exports reached an all time high during this reporting period. Additionally, the distillate inventory has dropped to levels not seen since 5/23/2003.

Pump prices compared to days gone by, factoring in inflation...

That $4.114 in July, 2008 is comparable to $6.176 in today's dollars. Also, the $5.016 of June, 2022 is comparable to $5.590 in today's dollars.

The market does seem to be settling down a bit, but I suspect that is more fear of getting caught over bought, due to some very clear demand destruction in Asia. Much was made if that 470M Barrels being released from various strategic petroleum reserves, but that is a drop in the bucket to the near 1B barrels that have been lost to the strait of hormuz blockade, etc.

Even if the blockade suddenly stopped tomorrow and the full complement of crude starts tomorrow... another 500M barrels will be removed from the global inventories, due to transit times of delivey. If you are keeping track... that is 1B barrels above the SPR release.

That demand destruction is taking place, is undeniable. Even with significant demand destruction of 5M barrels per day... it would take 6 months for a full recovery, imho.

What I find interesting, is the lack of discussion of the current state of natural gas supplies. Qatar suffered a severe setback in its LNG liquefaction facilities. It will take some time to resolve that situation and while there are new Liquefaction facilities coming on line later this year... the current state of the European Union's Natural Gas storage if behind last year, with draws still above last year. 

Purchases of Natural Gas for storage is woefully behind last year. Perhaps they see a milder winter coming up over the next 12 months. I guess what I am hinting at... Natural Gas prices in Europe are set to dramatically escalate in the coming months, OR... they may decide to swallow some pride and get some of that pipeline natural gas from somewhere.

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-29-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report. 

At long last, all regions are above both last year and 5 year average. Hooray!

EIA.GOV via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Time to wrap up the publishing of this weekly natural gas summary...

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-22-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is very near the 5 year average.

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The United Kingdom continues to slide in percent of storage filled. It should be noted that UK does have access to natural gas supplies and infrastructure for LNG. However, the flip side is more abrupt changes in pricing.

Which is most noticeable in the forward futures, as shown on this chart.

The US market continues to be somewhat stable. 

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-15-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is nearing the 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The overall EU pct. slipped since last week, but the volume in storage increased, as capacity increased.

While the EU as a whole, has approximately 100 days of supply, it should be noted that days supply varies greatly within the individual countries. 

Prices edged up in the EU and UK.

U.S. Henry Hub finished the week down -3¢.

Both TTF (Dutch) and UKG remain approximately double historical norms. Henry Hub is running about 2/3 of those norms. 

Natural Gas Summary... Week Ending 9-08-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region continues to be slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average, although still improving.

The South Central Region continued the slide against year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

Data per AGIS

The UK continues to reduce inventory, while Austria and Belgium slipped from last report.

Overall, NatGas prices slipped compared to last week.

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, September 01, 2023

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

While up in most areas of Europe, Austria -.01%, Czech Republic -.02%, and the UK down -1.63%.

Pricing finds the U.S. back to normal, with the EU and the UK still elevated, as will likely continue for quite a period of time.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 31, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region is now slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average.

The South Central Region slipped below one year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Nothing dramatic taking place, so steady as she goes, would be the best description, imho.

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, August 25, 2023

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The storage continues to increase, and has surpassed same period of 2020.

Natural Gas prices moderated in both nearby and futures pricing, as the potential for a strike by Australian Unions at one LNG facility seemed to have abated. At least until another strike was threatened, which sent prices upward again... today.

While current prices in the EU and UK are below pricing of 2 years ago, they are still elevated compared to 2019 and 2020. Despite LNG exports, U.S. prices remain at 2019 and 2020 levels.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 24, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region continued to gain inventory, although still below one year ago and 5 year average.

The South Central region shed inventory over the week, yet remains well above year ago and 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Generally speaking, natural gas prices are significantly below one year ago levels, and more in line with pre-covid levels. 

Current price levels suggest consumer inflation in natgas as well as pass through products (electricity) will continue to moderate. These products represent about 3.6% of the average consumer basket.

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, August 18, 2023

 Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

Much is being made of the 90% achievement, 3 months early. Typically this would represent about 3 months of supply, if all sources were cut off. That will not happen, but winter expectations and potential Australian LNG strike has provided apprehension in the markets. That potential for less supply has sent the bidding upward.

Overall, the price of TTF NatGas is still below levels of 2 years ago -(13.2%). That was before the pipeline chicanery, blackmail, etc. 

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 18, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year averages, although significant gains from last week.

Price changes in California were mixed this week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 7 cents, down from $5.71/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.64/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $2.85 from $4.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.80/MMBtu yesterday. El Paso Natural Gas Company reported maintenance on the North Mainline near Leupp, Arizona, beginning on Monday August 14. In addition, ongoing maintenance is occurring at the SoCalGas pipeline system. Prices in the West remain the highest in the country as above-average temperatures keep demand for cooling high and as the Pacific region remains the only region in the United States with below-average storage levels.

 

Henry Hub prices fell from last week, as well as on the futures market.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, August 11, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year levels, but is slowly gaining.

Prices increased in West Coast markets, still the highest priced markets in the United States, except in Southern California where a large maintenance event concluded. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border rose 37 cents from $3.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.09/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 54 cents, up from $5.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.71/MMBtu yesterday. 

 Select EU and UK storage...

Inventories continue to improve across the EU and UK. (100% inventory capacity is approximately a 90 day supply.)

Dutch and UK futures, surged 6% and 7% respectively over last week. February, 2024 futures, surged nearly 22% from last week.

Henry Hub futures surged 7% almost across the board.

The upward pressure stems from labor action in Australia, increased LNG demand in Asia, as well as a Norwegian pipeline tapering down to closure in early fall. The labor action had been somewhat anticipated, and certainly the latter two... were on tap. Or as Rumsfeld might have said... the labor action was a known unknown, and the latter were known knowns. 

So something else might be shaking the market.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, July 28, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region slipped to -8.3% from last week's -7.9% last week's numbers, although year ago numbers edged up to -13.1% from -13.4%

Across much of the West, prices increased this week, particularly in California. In the Rocky Mountain region, the price at Cheyenne Hub in southeast Wyoming rose 16 cents from $2.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.40/MMBtu yesterday. In California, the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 40 cents, up from $4.89/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.29/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $6.69 from $5.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $12.33/MMBtu yesterday.

Ouch!!

 Select inventories of EU and UK... 

It should be noted that while percent of capacity is high... that capacity is generally only about a 3 month supply. It is much better than years past, but still dependent on weather and geo-politics.

Total EU rose to 84.49%, from last week's 82.53%.

Snapshot of the past, the current and the future outlook for prices.