Review of January 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The downward shift in inflation continues across the board, with the exception of my price index, which is more about healthcare than any other weightings.

There were modest revisions in the PCE report, which are highlighted in Red.

I have made much of government spending on the GDP, but historically... not so abnormal (all charts from 2000Q1 onward...

A bit grainy in the upload, but trends are evident. The worrying factor is the trade deficit, while showing a bit of improvement the past few months, is still staggering compared to 10 years ago.

Bored silly, so will leave it there. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 28th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Upward movement in consumption continues...

Pump prices are beginning to drift upward...

Refinery levels continue to ease for a 4 week running average.

Crude inventories rose +4.2M barrels; distillates down -510K barrels; gasoline down -2.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is $22.91 per barrel, with $12.01 coming from distillate and $10.89 from gasoline. 

Those figures are down compared to last week. It is notable the drop in the diesel portion, which would suggest lessening demand, which is also seen in a slight downward trajectory in pump prices, as well as a slight decrease in refinery output, despite higher crude pricing.

Gasoline pump prices are edging up, which can be reflected in upward crude prices, lessening refinery operation, etc. 

The relationship between diesel and gasoline should not be overlooked.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- February, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of December data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are indeed about the same across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

Done for this month.

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 22nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Indicators have aligned to suggest upward movement in consumption.

Pump prices have generally stabilized, but I would suggest an upward movement into the $3.50ish range. Very similar to early spring of last year, imho.

Refinery operation continues to ease off, according to the latest 4 wk average.

Crude inventories rose +3.5M barrels; distillates down -4.0M barrels; gasoline down -293K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added the distillate/diesel category to reflect the volumes + percentages. Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is $24.83 per barrel, with $12.91 coming from distillate and $11.91 from gasoline. 

All those numbers are down from previous week.

That's all for now. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part X

The polls have altered the landscape, ever so slightly. While there have been several polls, none really changed much, except for Nevada, back on January 11.

The average in Nevada for Republican candidate remained about the same, there was erosion on the Democrat side. As a result, the state is now has a very slight Republican tendency.

As such the EVs are 293(R); 216(D); and 29(TU).

There are 261 days until the election. I will take another break from this spectacle and check things out in a couple of weeks. If no changes, then no commentary. 

My electricity bills over time (February, 2024 Edition)

Yep, time for the review of electricity consumption... MINE!

The year over year rolling 12 month has seen a decline of -5.8%. HOWEVER... December of 2022 was frigid, at least compared to December of this year. January had the heat running much more, up +10.6% over December.. Right now, February is looking good... so far. 

PPI Feb. 2024 release January 2024 Data

The BLS has released the January, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.8 percent in July 2023. In January, most of the advance is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which climbed 0.8 percent. The index for final demand trade services moved up 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4 percent. 

Product detail: A 2.2-percent increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased 1.0 percent. The indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing and for engineering services also moved lower. (See table 2.)

I emphasized a specfic portion. after much jockeying with revisions of numbers in the medical category over the past year... those have come to and end. So after all these revision helped tamp down inflation numbers, those days are over.

The headlines have focused on how the PPI report came in hotter than expected. I wonder if the expectations are real or some hope of immediate relief in those interest rates. It is coming, just not tomorrow. 

2/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for January Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, January Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* above January 2023. Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).

Cutting through the malarkey...

After revising the November numbers down by -0.4%, and December numbers downward by -1.4%, we still end up with January sales down by -0.8%, from December.  With inflation for the past 12 months at 3.1%, sales were only up +0.6%.

Granted the graph above, is a bit busy, but the retail sales, adjusted for inflation appear to be flat.

Looking at the average monthly sales (adjusted for inflation) since March, 2021... is provided in this graph.

Even better is this inflation adjusted graph starting in February, 2020.

Once past the initial vaccine rollout, coupled with massive stimulus checks, it quickly petered out, then rising into early 2022, then early 2023 saw a slow and steady decline.

As for the data in the report, there was a striking difference between adjusted and unadjusted numbers.

The unadjusted numbers were across the board for monthly sales, with adjusted showing only a very few instances of sales increases... with neither being inflation adjusted. 

When checking individual categories for adjusted numbers, and factoring inflation... only 3 indicated any improvement. 

• Furniture and home furnishings
• Grocery stores (just barely)
• Food services and drinking places.

No doubt next month's report will be stellar, once all the downward revision from previous months take place. (LOL!)

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Mixed messages on consumption.

Pump prices are rising, probably towards that $3.50ish level in the next couple of months.

Refinery operation slipped this report.

Crude inventories rose +12.0M barrels; distillates down -1.9M barrels; gasoline down +3.7M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added the distillate/diesel category to reflect the volumes. Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is 27.51 per barrel, with $14.97 coming from distillate and $12.55 from gasoline. 

That's all for now. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - February 13, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The January number reverses the 2023 fall downward trend and achieves an all time high.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, with a decent jump last month.

That is 2.3% annual, with a sharp 0.6% increase for January. The reason mainly being under the medical category and the fact it takes up much more weight, than the BLS weighting does. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue, but after all the "medical" adjustment to the CPI now finished... look out! 

As a side note the R-CPI-E was up 0.6% for the month and 3.5% annual. (R-CPI-E= Research consumer price index for Americans age 62 years of age and older).

Also, the gasoline index is now popping, after actually falling in January. Again... look out!!

As for Real Earnings.

Weekly wages seem to be slowing for some reason, which is reflected across the board, to the working stiffs.

Not a really bad report, but be on the outlook for any worrying trends to develop, imho.

Still, the overall seems to be easing off, even if a hiccup here and there. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 7th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Pump Prices are drifing in a narrow range, with not much upward pressure... yet! 

Overall...

Crude inventories rose +5.5M barrels; distillates down -3.2M barrels; gasoline down +3.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added distillates (diesel) to the chart. I had read a rather hysterical article about the impending distillate shortage, as distillates were down 5% from 5 year average... yada, yada. 

So yes, distillates are down -5.1% from historical 5 year average, but that five years includes that covid period, where consumption cratered and inventories skyrocketed. 

Discounting that period, the reading is -1.7%. Considering the refiners make more money from diesel than gasoline... I would expect refining operating capacity percent to rise. Given current crude mixes, this should keep gasoline prices in check, even if diesel rises slightly. 

We'll just have to wait and see.