The latest petroleum inventories (Oct-07-2026)

Inventories edged up for gasoline, with jet fuel, distillates, and crude slipping, as the total of all products decreased nearly 7.8M barrels. The SPR decreased about 700KB. 

I still hear a plan to release an additional 40M barrels in the November-December timeframe, via an exchange program to be released at some unspecified ?date? in the future. 

Additionally, the EU is releasing crude products with a front load of distillates over a 4 month period.

The 4 week running average of gasoline consumption edged up this period.

China and Russia are still excluding distillates from export, so the EU release might not move the markets that much. 

The potential for a hurricane along the U.S. Gulf Coast does not seem to be moving the markets... and might not.

A bit of an editorial...

Nearly 25 years ago, I gave serious consideration to the notion of early retirement. Of course, how would my savings and investments stack up against a wide variety of economic conditions. 

One of my first observations was the impact of the 1973 oil embargo and the 1980 Iranian revolution, certainly had an impact. The impact was mostly felt in consumer confidence and spending habits as people cut back in anticipation of rough times. 

At this point... not seeing significant cutbacks in consumer spending, although the "confidence" surveys indicate a lot of worry.

I would watch this very carefully, as a dip in confidence and spending could portend serious problems ahead. 

In nearly all previous jolts to the economy, government spending came to the rescue. I would suggest that any future economic jolts might become very severe... due to all the previous excessive spending and the expectation of even more.

At what premium will investors require to purchase the U.S. debt? At what point will the FED need to raise interest rates to keep dollarized assets attractive to investors to government treasuries? I am already convinced that future rates are going to take place, to not only "tame" inflation, but prop up the dollar and thereby the global banking system, which is heavily indebted in dollars. 

Any dip in the economy could quickly escalate into something far greater that the "Great Recession".

Be prepared!!

The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-30-2026)

Inventories edged down for gasoline, jet fuel and distillates, with crude rising, as the total of all products decreased nearly 8M barrels. The SPR decreased about 700KB. Originally, 172M barrels were slated to be pulled, AND within 5 months(?). 130.6 Million barrels have been pulled and the drawdown has slowed significantly, with l00K barrels a day for last report, which is up slightly from last week. 

I have heard there is a plan to release an additional 40M barrels in the November-December timeframe, via an exchange program to be released at some unspecified ?date? in the future.

Gasoline consumption declined on both the y/y and d/d, based on the moving 4 week average.

Diesel continues to be the big story, with no relief in sight, imo. Much is made of the crack spread on diesel, but I question some of those numbers. Typically, everyone uses the 3:2:1 method to calculate the spreads and reasonably associate that number with the refinery profitability margin. 

The problem being the base unit being either the WTI or Brent benchmark, which excludes the shipping costs, insurance, etc. What appears to be excessive refinery margins, turns into profitability of insurance and shipping companies. This is particularly true for crude coming out of the Persian Gulf and destined for Asia. 

Any consideration of halting or slowing distillate exports would run into another set of problems. With most of the refined distillate for export sitting along the Gulf Coast... how to get it back into the U.S. heartland. 

There are existing pipelines that could be used, but might require displacement of some gasoline product, which would drive gasoline pump prices higher. It could balance the disparity in gasoline and diesel prices, but at what cost to the average person't pocketbook?

Then there is the issue of distillate fuel in Europe, which is the prime destination for a lot of this distillate export. Europe is already in dire straits over the natural gas inventory, unless a very, every mild winter. 

Food for thought!

An update on the August inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A

Here is a snapshot of August percentages...

The PPI continues to remain a bit high, imo. It is considered the forerunner of future retail pricing, which in turn... impacts the CPI.

As for the C.O.L.A. outlook...

There is a strong chance of 3.6%, based on the energy increases and expected weightings. I am anticipating something between 3.6% and 3.7% for the September CPI. That figure will abruptly change the discussion of the PCE slipping in August and replaced by renewed inflation worries.

I read where the Treasury is preparing to purchase long term bonds, to keep the lid on bond rates. The figure announced is a mere pittance, imo. It won't take long for the market to see through the mist.

This Treasury purchase should not be confused with any FED QE, as I mentioned in this post, from earlier this month.

The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-23-2026)

Inventories edged down for gasoline and distillates, with crude and jet fuel rising, as the total of all products decreased -0.3KB. The SPR decreased about 400KB. Originally, 172M barrels were slated to be pulled, AND within 5 months(?). 130.6 Million barrels have been pulled and the drawdown has slowed significantly, with less than 60K barrels a day for last report, which matches last week. 

Gasoline consumption declined on the y/y and remained in place for the 4 week running average.

I have lamented the diesel prices of the past few weeks, but that pump price may actually be nearing its apex. 

Advance Retail Sales, Through August-2026

It's been awhile since I last published retail sales, but I never stopped tracking...

As always, the orange dots indicate inflation adjusted and the blue dots are nominal retail sales. 

While the numbers might seem impressive, the inflation adjusted sales for March, 2021 were $589.455B, compared to August 2026 of $597.656B. So the actual quantity of goods has not changed much in over 5 years. It did bottom in April, 2024 at an inflation adjusted $567,273. The latter being a rate of about +2.1% annual growth. Not so bad. 

For more in depth... the Retail Sales Report.

The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-16-2026)

Inventories moved up for gasoline and distillates, with crude and jet fuel easing, as the total of all products increased +2.2MB. The SPR decreased about 400KB. Originally, 172M barrels were slated to be pulled, AND within 5 months(?). 130.2 Million barrels have been pulled and the drawdown has slowed significantly, with less than 60K barrels a day for last report. 

Gasoline consumption contines to decline on both y/y and m/m.

Gasoline prices continue to edge up, but diesel is the big story. Nationally, diesel prices will leap past $7 and California diesel with likely surpass $9.

The current national average of diesel, is at an all time high of $5.816 and when adjusting for inflation, is nearing the inflation adjusted figure of $6.554. It will surpass that shortly and will make a run for the July 2008 $4.767 inflation adjusted figure of $7.237.

While a lot of the issue is surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the Ukraine shelling of Russia's refineries, and Russia limiting exports of refined products... also plays a role. 

At some point, natural gas will be an issue in Europe, but not my focus. U.S. stocks of NG are in decent shape and pricing not too out of the ordinary. For those interested in Europe, here is their website.

An Quick look at August 2026 Inflation data and COLA outlook.

With today's BLS inflation report, the numbers look like this...

The PPI report, from yesterday, lends to the belief the inflation rate is rising. 

The COLA projection currently looks like this...

It sits at the 3.5% increase level, but might make it to 3.6%, as energy will likely jump more than some of the tepid forecasts. I will go out on a limb and say 3.5% as my official outlook with an outside chance of 3.6%. My own rate of inflation is 2.7%, primarily due to my very limited driving. 

Of course there are some that think the R-CPI-E should be used, but note the 3.3% y/y rise in that index. It would likely land at 3.4% y/y. 

The underlying argument for the R-CPI-E is the current 366.138 basket, compared to the CPI-W's 328.481, OR the headline CPI-U number of  334.980. All of which list the same timeframe for 100. My problem with the R-CPI-E has been it lagging the past few years. My old article on this.

Sorry, there is no magical formula, nor are the heroes of the Marvel Universe going to spring to life and rescue all of us. 

The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-10-2026)

Inventories moved up across the board, as the total of all products increased 5+MB. The SPR decreased about 1.2MB. Originally, 172M barrels were slated to be pulled, AND within 5 months(?). 129.8 Million barrels have been pulled and the drawdown has slowed significantly. 

Gasoline consumption contines to decline on both y/y and m/m.

Gasoline prices are edging up, but the story is still about diesel, imo. Diesel is set to blow past the near $6 mark towards the $7 mark nationally, and hold your breath California... from current near $8, to near $9 per gallon. Much of this was explained in my previous post. 

Stay tuned.

The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-02-2026)

A mixed bag, with crude falling, as well as gasoline, jet fuel and SPR. Distillate edged up, as well as Jet fuel. 

Gasoline consumption is edging downward on a 4 week moving average. -2.8% compared to year ago levels, and -0.5% on the week to week 4 week average.

Pump prices for gasoline are staying in a somewhat narrow band. However diesel prices could very well break through all time highs, set in June of 2022. $6+ for a national average is certainly within the realm of possibility, with California diesel possibly topping $8 in the near future. 

So some fun facts. The U.S. consumer uses about 1/3 of global gasoline consumption, while the U.S. refiners produce about 1/6 of global diesel product, after export the U.S. consumes... about 12% of global diesel products. 

U.S. refiners are operating at near record levels, to meet the demand. The global demand of diesel... is driving the price upward, at an astonishing pace. Despite refining about half as much diesel, as gasoline, the refiners are making 70% more on that diesel. 

One would think the refiners might wish to make even more, by tweaking the process to produce more diesel. While that is theoretically possible, it would also cause gasoline stocks to slip, thereby driving up gasoline pump prices, which is more politically visible. 

So while there is a bit of stability in gasoline prices, the diesel market will be allowed to escalate prices until, it becomes politically visible. However the majority of the public will focus on the pump price directly in their face and a minority will possibly virtue signal their indigation of diesel prices.

What I am saying is... diesel prices are set to rise another 82¢ a gallon from today's price, while gasoline will likely stay in their current range.

Feel free to bookmark and come back in a few weeks, to see how accurate I am, or point out my inaccuracies. 

Just when will the debt overwhelm the system?

Current national debt...

A brief history (simplified)...

We went off the so called gold standard in the 60s and early 70s. We began trading in dollar assets. We imported a bit more than we exported in the 70s, largely due to oil imports. The dollar fell in value, which prompted the circulation of more dollars and thereby inflation. 

That led to the so called eurobonds (not to be confused with Euro Bonds). In this case the eurobonds were principally in deutschmarks, meaning the debt was to be repaid in deutschmarks, regardless of the trading value with the dollar... which was weakening against these eurobonds.

Famously, Paul Volcker dramatically raised interest rates, which propelled bond yields upward, with the resultant demand in dollar based debt instruments.

The era of the strong dollar, increased purchasing power for imported goods, which escalated. Normally, the profits from these imported goods, would have been repatriated to the exporting country currency, keeping the dollar vs foreign currency rather stable. 

However creative ways and methods, including opening up U.S. companies, property, etc. to foreign entities. Of course, the early and easiest route was strong demand for U.S. debt. This continued until the early 2000s, when more and more U.S. property became the target and the attraction to Treasury debt became relatively stable. The dollar remained strong, as competing countries currencies weakened. 

It became a necessity for everyone, to keep the dollar strong, as any weakening threatened the value of dollarized assets. 

The graph above, indicates the timing of the various "QE" programs. The FED was basically absorbing the debt at the primary dealer market to keep interest rates low and inflation at bay. 

When the "trust" hits zero, a hole of $300B~$400B will need to be somehow covered. Congress would need to authorize that additional expenditure.

Where will it come from?

1. Additional debt creation, requiring ever increasing interest rates. Who will purchase that debt and at what premium, that will likely be spiraling upward?
2. Could the FED enact a never before seen size of QE, in attempts to keep interest rates at bay?
3. Will congress finally be forced to massively cutting spending?

As for #1: There is no willpower in Congress, now, in the near future, or even when staring at the abyss... to reduce spending and limit further debt creation. We'll be have gone over the fiscal cliff, before such cuts are forced, via eurobonds, extreme interest rates and massive weakening of the dollar, of which would happen rapidly and dollar holdings will get dumped, as everyone is heading for the exits. 

As for #2: The FED in theory could enact a massive QE program, but it would require fiscal restraint by Congress. Remember that an unrestrained fiscal spending outlook, couple with a massive QE would eventually lead to undermining the entire financial system, which leads to same result as outlined in #1.

As for #3: Probably, once it is too late and public is clamoring for massive change. 

All of that is extreme, but the "Trust" will be bust in 4th quarter of 2032, per the latest estimate. There is also a national election during that 4th quarter, as well. 

If it goes bust, which I have spent most of this article predicting... an immediate and huge impact will hit the economy. Seniors that rely soley on S.S. trust fund income, will be in need of many of the other government programs, which will simply move the debt into those areas. Those that do not soley rely on the trust fund, will likely cut back on spending. 

In the interim, goods and services will take a hit and industries will need to reduce spending (manpower) to bridge gap. Additionally, they may require loans to cover expenses, while the various product pipelines reduce inventories to a new reality. Just as the government is driving up interest rates on their bonds, notes, bills, etc. This is not just a U.S. debt problem, as the sum total of debt worldwide is increasing at a rapid rate.

If you think none of this can happen, just remember... we were here before, when everything was tiny, compared to today, and when there was a willingness to address the problems.

I would suspect that 2033 will be the year of reckoning, although significant cracks will be observed in the runup to that period.

Does the WNBA really have a problem?

Depends on what the WNBA is hoping to achieve. Certainly ticket sales increased for games Clark appeared in, yet the hysteria extends far beyond that phenomena... as of now. My guess is even bad press is good for ticket sales. Interest for whatever reason is at an all time high.

I suspect a lot of incidences are being blown out of proportion to keep the WNBA in the news and further promote interest... and thereby ticket sales and viewership.

Now whether that is the intended aim of the WNBA, remains to be seen, but I doubt they are really trying hard not to squelch the flow of money. 

So while some of the solutions to the WNBA's problems might seem straight forward, it would also rock the boat on the flow of money.

Whether the level of NBA play and WNBA play can be debated as being equal... the greed is certainly equal, imo

The quandry the WNBA has, is related to the flow of money and how to continue and capitalize on the current influx of attention. 

via GIPHY

An update on July's inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A, and future of that Trust Fund

First off the July numbers...

The worrying part, is the Producer Price, which could be indicative of future pressure on retail prices.

Which briefly mention CPI-W, which is used for COLA. 

My current estimate is 3.4%-3.5%. Oddly, there seems to be a lot of grousing about this should be higher, or the data is manipulated, etc. What makes it odd, is there are some that inadvertently are wishing for higher inflation, so they get a higher increase. Given the lag time, this is rather insane. 

Of course, this inevitably leads to changing the way it is calculated. Typically, the CPI-E becomes part of that discussion. It would still be lagging, much the same way as CPI-W, although slightly higher... historically. 

The the subject morphs into the "trust" fund. There seems to be a majority opinion that something will be done, to defer that ±22% cut in a few years.

Which brings up the next question... can anyone really do anything. Frankly, I doubt that happening. Why you might ask.

There are 3 types of treasuries. Bills, Notes and Bonds.

Notes and bonds are paid the coupon interest, every 6 months. If a $100 note or bond is issued with a coupon rate of 4%, then two dollars is paid out every 6 months. The coupon rate is set on the primary dealer market. The yields we commonly see published is from the secondary market. Hence if a 5% yield is published, then then value of that note or bond has fallen below $100, when traded. It thereby indicates that future coupon rates will be higher. 

What is paid out on Notes and Bonds... goes agains the budget deficit. This added burden in debt service, will not likely ease... when those 100s of billions of dollars are added to keep social security at 100%.

Now the discussion turns to Bills, which are not paid interest, but rather more of a fee. The treasury sells a $100 treasury Bill for $98, with the guarantee of paying back $100 in 6 months. They pay they $100 by selling a $100 treasurt bill with a guarantee of paying back $102+ in 6 months. That cycle repeats.

The Notes and Bonds interest... shows up on the annual fiscal deficits. The Bills do not. The treasury bills get added to the National Debt. The national debt is rising at a faster nominal rate than the annual deficits, due to this accounting practice.

There is currenly over $8 trillion dollars of notes, with the number rising at a rapid rate. 

We are on a timeline where investors will require much higher premiums to finance these debt instruments. 

What I think will likely happen and the timeline... might be published at a later date.

Another week with the crude report from EIA.GOV.

Let's get the inventory numbers out of the way...

There is some y/y decline in the 4 week average of consumption...

Pump prices are somewhat steady on the gasoline side, although edging up on the diesel side. 

The prices still haven't broken through the 2022 highs and would have a long way to go in inflation adjusted dollars. The inflation adjusted figures are even more startling for 2008.

There is an old saying that we should learn from our mistakes. But are we able to learn from our mistakes, if we constantly blame others???

Should I Start Posting Again... or Not!

It has been awhile, although I have kept abreast of a few things.

First up... is inventory status of select energy components in the USA.

The SPR status is slowly declining, with the unknown being how much spoilage is there. At current rates of withdrawal, about 50 weeks remain... IF there is no spoilage. The Cushing inventory, which is included in the Crude numbers... is low, but not critical, given historical number. 

Of course, the BIG story is pump prices of gasoline. 

I would be a bit more concerned with the Diesel prices, but hey...

Gasoline consumption is -1.7% from last year, with it being -0.4% from last week. Whatever the price, the consumer seems to be adjusting, although still complaining. 

Looking forward, and based on current market pricing...

An uptick in gasoline is in the offing, but the diesel is set to rise rather swiftly, imo.

That finishes up this episode of an old guy foolishly expressing his opinion.

Some thought on May 7th, 2026... about energy, etc.

It's been awhile since posting, although I never really stopped tracking. 

Current U.S. inventories, compared to last week and 1 year ago.

Not terribly tight and I really don't see a significant drop off in U.S. consumer purchasing at the pump. Distillate exports reached an all time high during this reporting period. Additionally, the distillate inventory has dropped to levels not seen since 5/23/2003.

Pump prices compared to days gone by, factoring in inflation...

That $4.114 in July, 2008 is comparable to $6.176 in today's dollars. Also, the $5.016 of June, 2022 is comparable to $5.590 in today's dollars.

The market does seem to be settling down a bit, but I suspect that is more fear of getting caught over bought, due to some very clear demand destruction in Asia. Much was made if that 470M Barrels being released from various strategic petroleum reserves, but that is a drop in the bucket to the near 1B barrels that have been lost to the strait of hormuz blockade, etc.

Even if the blockade suddenly stopped tomorrow and the full complement of crude starts tomorrow... another 500M barrels will be removed from the global inventories, due to transit times of delivey. If you are keeping track... that is 1B barrels above the SPR release.

That demand destruction is taking place, is undeniable. Even with significant demand destruction of 5M barrels per day... it would take 6 months for a full recovery, imho.

What I find interesting, is the lack of discussion of the current state of natural gas supplies. Qatar suffered a severe setback in its LNG liquefaction facilities. It will take some time to resolve that situation and while there are new Liquefaction facilities coming on line later this year... the current state of the European Union's Natural Gas storage if behind last year, with draws still above last year. 

Purchases of Natural Gas for storage is woefully behind last year. Perhaps they see a milder winter coming up over the next 12 months. I guess what I am hinting at... Natural Gas prices in Europe are set to dramatically escalate in the coming months, OR... they may decide to swallow some pride and get some of that pipeline natural gas from somewhere.

A FEW RAMBLINGS AND OPINIONS REGARDING INFLATION, ENERGY, ETC.

The PCE numbers for January finally arrived yesterday, so the January numbers...

Nothing to extreme. I recognize much of February reportage has been completed, so the laggard is the PCE, which will see next release around April 9th.

Obviously the CPI for February was 2.4%, and we can all expect that to jump for March. Energy prices alone, will drive inflation up by nearly a full percent, for the month of March. I would expect the overall y/y to be in the 3.2%+ range for March.

It should be noted that California prices will distort the national average. California is unique, due to nearly no access to the SPR (no pipeline, Jones Act), in direct competition with east Asia over Alaskan crude. Additionally, 30% of their crude imports ... comes through the Straits of Hormuz. California imports 60% overall. 

Simple math indicates 18% of their refinery inputs are in serious danger of being impacted. It would not be unreasonable to see the pump prices in California breaching the June, 2022 highs. Gasoline- $6.438; Diesel- $7.011.

Natural gas prices are not substantially higher and should not increase due to the situation in the Persian Gulf. The reason being simple... The U.S. facilities for processing NatGas to LNG are already at full operation. 

It is possible that various nation's SPR release might stem to spikes temporarily, but the capacity of withdrawal is one of the questions, as well as shipping availability. Ships can't magically appear overnight... at any given port.

Frankly, I see no easy solution. 

Globally, Asian countries are very vulnerable, with the exception of China.

Curiously, Iran has stated that crude priced in Chinese Yuan would be allowed passage. China might gleefully go along with that, but considering the impact on the yuan/dollar exchange rate, as well as holdings in dollars held by China... maybe not. 

Energy Inventory Update, and Some Geo-Political Thoughts

I guess it is no surprise that pump prices are rapidly rising... now standing at 11.5% above year ago levels.

How high could it go? That gets very complicated and depends on...

Past crude oil disruptions

Nothing really compares to the current situation. The 1973 Arab Embargo, targeted the U.S. and a few other countries, which were mostly unaffected. Notably, the U.S. experienced shortages and significant price hikes. The 1980 Iranian revolution impacted the global prices, but not the Straits of Hormuz. Again this impacted the U.S. with spot shortages and sharp price rises. 

That latter crisis did result in our current spot pricing structure, which ensures inventory across the different regions of the country.

The duration of closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

This is the determinant of future crude prices, natural gas prices, etc. As these are global commodities, the U.S. is not immune, as a net exporter of crude and LNG.

The 2nd part of the puzzle is shipping costs, which are usually included in those futures pricing. There are a lot of tankers, fully loaded and sitting stationary in that Gulf. Additionally, tankers are starting to pile up at the entrance into the Gulf. All those tankers are basically removing shipping capacity from the equation. 

We can all remember the high prices at the pump in 2008, which was caused by a much weaker dollar AND limited transport capability, due to our extreme dependence on imports at that time. 

Some basic math. 

Currently about 20 million barrels of crude passes through the Straits of Hormuz, each every day. Of that, less than 1 million barrels is shipped to the U.S. 3 million barrels are from Iran and generally goes to China. That leaves 16 million barrels for the rest.

The bulk of U.S. Imports are from Canada, which is largely captive by their government policies and is therefore highly dependant on the U.S. importing their product.

Certainly U.S. exports can rise, but a dramatic uptick in shipping would be hard to achieve, imo. U.S. Pump prices will most certainly rise, dependant upon duration of Straits of Hormuz closure, but there should be no shortages at the pump for at least 3 months. That might not be the case in other countries. 

Other overlooked factors

Deducting the 3mbpd exported by Iran to China, there remains 17mbpd of crude not passing through the Straits of Hormuz. That is approximately $1.3B per day of lost revenue to the exporters in that area.

With no ships entering the Straits of Hormuz, countries that are heavily dependent on food imports will experience possible sharp rises in prices, as well as potential shortages.

Summary

As someone that drives very little, an extreme jump in pump prices can be absorbed. As natural gas is a factor in electricity prices, I would expect an uncomfortable jump in that. With diesel prices jumping faster than gasoline and reliance on transportation of products... it will increase things I use on a regular basis.

For me... inflation is the story, NOT shortages, unless it would be shortage of money.

Latest Energy Consumption Data and A Few Ponderings About "Other" stuff!

Pump prices remain relatively steady, with consumption jumping on the weekly basis, but nearly flat... year over year.

Now for the opinion stuff...

It is fascinating to watch the British News over Epstein, Mandelson, Andrew, etc. It was a shock when Andrew was taken into custody. Of course, it was noted on several occasions that the British Police are investigating this sex trafficking thing more thoroughly than in the US.

The possible charges against Andrew, are over government secrets, which came to light after the files release. While he may be assessed by multiple British police agencies over possible movement of underage girls, he has not been charged.

Simply put... Andrew got a lot of publicity over sharing of secret government financial records with Epstein, which violates UK laws and dates back to 2011.

As for Epstein, he served 13 months from June 2008 ~ July 2009... on work release. Which meant he only spent his evenings in a cell. 

As for Andrew, he was a trade envoy from 2001~ 2011. He resigned that position due to some issues with expenses and possible association with unsavory characters.

It is hard to believe the Crown was not aware of Andrew's illegal business dealings. Yet all remained quiet.

An oddity in UK law has the Monarchy immune to open records requests, for 99 years after death.

Taking that last sentence and reviewing the timeline of the past 15 years, the slow drip drip of accusations against Andrew, stripping of his titles and duties and then the timing of his removal from the Royal Lodge, just 2 weeks prior to this latest uproar... reeks of a conspiracy. 

It is not so unbelievable that the Royal Lodge was scrubbed clean and any questionable material, digital and otherwise, is now safely ensconced in some walled off partition, held by the monarchy. To remain there until 99 years after Andrew's demise.

Thus the only evidence is in the U.S. files which were simply reproductions from digital files. 

With the UK media now describing the King as being forthcoming and willing to work with the authorities as somehow being above reproach. The cycle is nearly complete. 

Of course, this is all just a conspiracy on my part... and could never possibly be true.

A Bit of Update on the Energy Market, and a Few Political Opinions.

 The winter weather is the likely culprit for the drop in overall consumption. Only time will tell.

The overall inventories are still in good shape.

Now on to politics and MY OPINION.

GREENLAND...

I think we all understand the earth is not flat, but when discussing Greenland, somehow the average mind forgets that fact, and focus on the flat map. Get a globe to understand. With the potential opening of trade routes in the Arctic, who is to control those routes?

Those trade routes would cut the distance between the Asia Pacific Countries in half and more depending on Suez or Panama route. That has HUGE implications on volume of goods, container ships, cargo rates, etc. I would remind everyone of the Houthis's disruption of trade moving through the Suez Canal and the battle with China over the control of the Panama Canal. 

This is huge and could become a big geo-political nightmare in the coming decades. 

STARMER...

The UK Prime Minister has messed up. If you are not familiar, then step aside. The excuse being run up the flag pole... is the Mandelson appointment was made to placate or negotiate with you know who, in the White House. How weak has the U.K. become... to protrate themselves to a leader of another country. How can Starmer now attempt to play the moral outrage card, after all that.

This is quite laughable, although extremely serious if you are a  Brit, which I am not. However, I do feel sorry for them.

A FEW CHARTS WITH SOME POLITICS - January 07, 2026

The crude inventories are in good shape for this time of year...

It should be noted that the total inventory of Petroleum and Petroleum products are at the highest since April, 2022.

Consumption is near year ago levels, with pricing slightly down. 

Am I the only one noticing that Venezuela crude and Urals crude is similar?

Am I the only one noticing how the same people saying Trump does nothing but lie, lie, lie, are in a rush to treat his every utterance as the Gospel? I guess irrational behavior would create such opposing views. 

I periodically watch a certain UK news station. It was a constant bombardment of the U.S. seizing an oil tanker in the North Atlantic... until is was announced the UK had participated. The is was all rah-rah for the UK military. 

Then is was all about whether the UK was now undertaking a more active role. Yet, it came out the UK vessel was not crewed by Royal Navy, but rather by merchant marines. So who will become more active.

Of course, internation law is bandied about, but there has been literally dozens, if not hundreds of violations of "international law" over the previous decades. 

If there is no one to enforce the law... is there really a law??