All of the relevant (to me) inflation numbers for September 2026

September numbers...

For comparison, this is the August numbers...

                                                    

With 3rd Qtr GDP, I ran some numbers to indicate the impact of gasoline and diesel prices on inflation.

At the end of June and 2nd Qtr GDP, CPI-U inflation was 3.5% Y/Y with 0.98% of that being due to increases in gasoline and diesel prices. 2.52% was not attributable to gasoline and/or diesel.

At the end of September and 3rd Qtr GDP, CPI-U inflation was at 3.7%, with 1.36% being due to increases in gasoline and diesel prices. 2.34% was not attributable to gasoline and/or diesel.

Normally this would be the time I would vent about something. At the moment, I'm just to tired to give a $h!T!

The latest petroleum inventories (Oct-28-2026), AND more of my grumbling!

Off to the races...

Gasoline inventories rose, with all else falling. 

The consumption of gasoline continues to decline.

The pump price for gasoline continues to be in a moderating range, with diesel doing similarly. I would still expect upward pressure on diesel.

[WARNING] My opinion about a couple of things.

Some of the social media I follow has a guy proclaiming that lack of new refineries is the reason for the diesel price being so high.

A dose of reality... we export nearly 1.7M barrels a day of distillate. We could reduce distillate export, but considering the crude cocktail required in current optimal refinery opertion... the distillate price would fall, however the gasoline price would rise rather dramatically.

Of course another major refinery being built could still utilize the current crude cocktail, we would require more imports, although it would reduce the price of diesel and gasoline unlikely. An added refinery would also accompany the infrastrucure  investment in export facilities, as gasoline and diesel are traded internationally. 

The ability to refine more would make those cheaper prices more attractive in a global market. 

Besides, those billions of dollars set aside to build a major refinery, plus infrastructure to export more product would likely not achieve a net profit, as the expectation of all, is to eliminate crude from the equation over the next 30-40 years.

That's just my opinion. Any comments?

The latest petroleum inventories (Oct-21-2026), AND likely an unpopular opinion!

Another week and another report. Here goes...

Inventories edged up for crude and distillate fuel. However, gasoline dropped, as the total of all products decreased nearly 8.7M barrels. The SPR showed a 300K barrel withdrawal.

The consumption of gasoline fell ever so slightly, according to the latest data.

The pump price for gasoline continues to be in a moderating range, with diesel doing similarly. I would still expect upward pressure on diesel.

I should mention that distillate exports have fallen the past couple of weeks, but that might a couple of large ships not loading up. We should be nearing the end of US and Canada harvest, so those farmers are closely monitoring those tanks.

[WARNING] My opinion about a couple of things.

Old people social media (I fall into that category) is ablaze with the impending reduction of S.S. in 2033. Don't get me wrong, as I am concerned, but I am also a huge skeptic regarding anything meaningful being done. 

1st, the notion an uprising will take place if the cuts are made... ludicrous. We would be alone in our outrage, as we have known for several decades about this problem and are now taking it serious. Can we really expect our descendants to get alarmed about something we ignored for so long? NO.

2nd, the idea that erasing the cap and adding another 2% onto OASDI withholding. Not just 2% more, but raising the current rate 2%. That might well raise the necessary $400+ BILLION ANNUALLY, to keep SS whole. It would represent one of the largest tax increases in my memory, just to keep something younger generations consider a lost cause. Think about it... we are raising their taxes, so we can keep our S.S. whole.

3rd, raising the aforementioned taxes would do nothing to alleviate the national debt, fiscal deficits, interest on debt... of which is beginning to spiral out of control. 

4th, raising taxes is never popular among a certain income level, and neither is reducing spending in areas that affect another income level. 

5th, It is lunacy to expect anyone in either camp to actually propose the serious and necessary solutions, let alone get them through Congress. Anyone that actually sees the seriousness of this issue, is not even interested in being in politics.

6th, The "C(*&" is going to hit the fan, so how can I best prepare to weather the storm? If I die before that happens, then I would be okay, although I would rather not die anytime soon. AND it is gonna get here sooner... rather than later, imo.

Feel free to suggest possible solutions.

The latest petroleum inventories (Oct-15-2026)

Inventories edged up for gasoline and jet fuel. However, distillates and crude dropped, as the total of all products decreased nearly 13.5M barrels. The SPR showed no movement from last week. 

There is still a plan to release an additional 40M barrels from the SPR, in the November-December timeframe, via an exchange program to be released at some unspecified "date" in the future. 

Additionally, the EU is releasing crude products with a front load of distillates over a 4 month period. Which sounds nice, and will likely slow the rise in diesel prices, but for a very short timeframe, imo. Additionally, the notion of "allowing" off road diesel, sans federal excise taxes, until the beginning of the year is nothing but politics for the non users of diesel, as no one in their right mind would take advantage of such an offer.

The consumption of gasoline fell on both y/y and week to week. 

For the record... the national average for diesel at the pump is 72.8% higher than this date last year. 

While I am not seeing much movement in gasoline prices, the diesel seems to be slated to go much higher. 

Here are my current projections...

That's a wrap for this week. If any questions... simply ask.

The latest petroleum inventories (Oct-07-2026)

Inventories edged up for gasoline, with jet fuel, distillates, and crude slipping, as the total of all products decreased nearly 7.8M barrels. The SPR decreased about 700KB. 

I still hear a plan to release an additional 40M barrels in the November-December timeframe, via an exchange program to be released at some unspecified ?date? in the future. 

Additionally, the EU is releasing crude products with a front load of distillates over a 4 month period.

The 4 week running average of gasoline consumption edged up this period.

China and Russia are still excluding distillates from export, so the EU release might not move the markets that much. 

The potential for a hurricane along the U.S. Gulf Coast does not seem to be moving the markets... and might not.

A bit of an editorial...

Nearly 25 years ago, I gave serious consideration to the notion of early retirement. Of course, how would my savings and investments stack up against a wide variety of economic conditions. 

One of my first observations was the impact of the 1973 oil embargo and the 1980 Iranian revolution, certainly had an impact. The impact was mostly felt in consumer confidence and spending habits as people cut back in anticipation of rough times. 

At this point... not seeing significant cutbacks in consumer spending, although the "confidence" surveys indicate a lot of worry.

I would watch this very carefully, as a dip in confidence and spending could portend serious problems ahead. 

In nearly all previous jolts to the economy, government spending came to the rescue. I would suggest that any future economic jolts might become very severe... due to all the previous excessive spending and the expectation of even more.

At what premium will investors require to purchase the U.S. debt? At what point will the FED need to raise interest rates to keep dollarized assets attractive to investors to government treasuries? I am already convinced that future rates are going to take place, to not only "tame" inflation, but prop up the dollar and thereby the global banking system, which is heavily indebted in dollars. 

Any dip in the economy could quickly escalate into something far greater that the "Great Recession".

Be prepared!!

The latest petroleum inventories (Sep-30-2026)

Inventories edged down for gasoline, jet fuel and distillates, with crude rising, as the total of all products decreased nearly 8M barrels. The SPR decreased about 700KB. Originally, 172M barrels were slated to be pulled, AND within 5 months(?). 130.6 Million barrels have been pulled and the drawdown has slowed significantly, with l00K barrels a day for last report, which is up slightly from last week. 

I have heard there is a plan to release an additional 40M barrels in the November-December timeframe, via an exchange program to be released at some unspecified ?date? in the future.

Gasoline consumption declined on both the y/y and d/d, based on the moving 4 week average.

Diesel continues to be the big story, with no relief in sight, imo. Much is made of the crack spread on diesel, but I question some of those numbers. Typically, everyone uses the 3:2:1 method to calculate the spreads and reasonably associate that number with the refinery profitability margin. 

The problem being the base unit being either the WTI or Brent benchmark, which excludes the shipping costs, insurance, etc. What appears to be excessive refinery margins, turns into profitability of insurance and shipping companies. This is particularly true for crude coming out of the Persian Gulf and destined for Asia. 

Any consideration of halting or slowing distillate exports would run into another set of problems. With most of the refined distillate for export sitting along the Gulf Coast... how to get it back into the U.S. heartland. 

There are existing pipelines that could be used, but might require displacement of some gasoline product, which would drive gasoline pump prices higher. It could balance the disparity in gasoline and diesel prices, but at what cost to the average person't pocketbook?

Then there is the issue of distillate fuel in Europe, which is the prime destination for a lot of this distillate export. Europe is already in dire straits over the natural gas inventory, unless a very, every mild winter. 

Food for thought!

An update on the August inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A

Here is a snapshot of August percentages...

The PPI continues to remain a bit high, imo. It is considered the forerunner of future retail pricing, which in turn... impacts the CPI.

As for the C.O.L.A. outlook...

There is a strong chance of 3.6%, based on the energy increases and expected weightings. I am anticipating something between 3.6% and 3.7% for the September CPI. That figure will abruptly change the discussion of the PCE slipping in August and replaced by renewed inflation worries.

I read where the Treasury is preparing to purchase long term bonds, to keep the lid on bond rates. The figure announced is a mere pittance, imo. It won't take long for the market to see through the mist.

This Treasury purchase should not be confused with any FED QE, as I mentioned in this post, from earlier this month.