An update on the August inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A

Here is a snapshot of August percentages...

The PPI continues to remain a bit high, imo. It is considered the forerunner of future retail pricing, which in turn... impacts the CPI.

As for the C.O.L.A. outlook...

There is a strong chance of 3.6%, based on the energy increases and expected weightings. I am anticipating something between 3.6% and 3.7% for the September CPI. That figure will abruptly change the discussion of the PCE slipping in August and replaced by renewed inflation worries.

I read where the Treasury is preparing to purchase long term bonds, to keep the lid on bond rates. The figure announced is a mere pittance, imo. It won't take long for the market to see through the mist.

This Treasury purchase should not be confused with any FED QE, as I mentioned in this post, from earlier this month.

An update on July's inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A, and future of that Trust Fund

First off the July numbers...

The worrying part, is the Producer Price, which could be indicative of future pressure on retail prices.

Which briefly mention CPI-W, which is used for COLA. 

My current estimate is 3.4%-3.5%. Oddly, there seems to be a lot of grousing about this should be higher, or the data is manipulated, etc. What makes it odd, is there are some that inadvertently are wishing for higher inflation, so they get a higher increase. Given the lag time, this is rather insane. 

Of course, this inevitably leads to changing the way it is calculated. Typically, the CPI-E becomes part of that discussion. It would still be lagging, much the same way as CPI-W, although slightly higher... historically. 

The the subject morphs into the "trust" fund. There seems to be a majority opinion that something will be done, to defer that ±22% cut in a few years.

Which brings up the next question... can anyone really do anything. Frankly, I doubt that happening. Why you might ask.

There are 3 types of treasuries. Bills, Notes and Bonds.

Notes and bonds are paid the coupon interest, every 6 months. If a $100 note or bond is issued with a coupon rate of 4%, then two dollars is paid out every 6 months. The coupon rate is set on the primary dealer market. The yields we commonly see published is from the secondary market. Hence if a 5% yield is published, then then value of that note or bond has fallen below $100, when traded. It thereby indicates that future coupon rates will be higher. 

What is paid out on Notes and Bonds... goes agains the budget deficit. This added burden in debt service, will not likely ease... when those 100s of billions of dollars are added to keep social security at 100%.

Now the discussion turns to Bills, which are not paid interest, but rather more of a fee. The treasury sells a $100 treasury Bill for $98, with the guarantee of paying back $100 in 6 months. They pay they $100 by selling a $100 treasurt bill with a guarantee of paying back $102+ in 6 months. That cycle repeats.

The Notes and Bonds interest... shows up on the annual fiscal deficits. The Bills do not. The treasury bills get added to the National Debt. The national debt is rising at a faster nominal rate than the annual deficits, due to this accounting practice.

There is currenly over $8 trillion dollars of notes, with the number rising at a rapid rate. 

We are on a timeline where investors will require much higher premiums to finance these debt instruments. 

What I think will likely happen and the timeline... might be published at a later date.

There Is More Than the National Debt to Worry About!

 I keep reading about the national debt, then consumer debt, etc. 

I probably should worry, but I am getting up there in years, so I find it hard to worry too much about things in the future... I have no control of.

A few things that seems to be overlooked, are corporate debt, municipal and state debt. 

When the time comes for corporate debt to be rolled over, the interest rates will certainly weigh on earnings. Fine, they can raise prices... if the consumer market will bear the increase. I won't even bring in the topic of new debt, to finance some innovative product or expansion. That will also cost more in interest. 

Of course, we have state and municipal debt. In most of these cases a balanced budget is required. Any additional costs due to increased debt service, whether from roll over bonds or new bonds, must be budgeted... and the budget must be balanced.

Of course, newer sources of revenue will be sought (new taxes) as well as potential increases in taxes.

I'm sure the consumer will gladly pay for this, just as they will merrily pay for corporate price increases. 

Soooo... when your eyes roll and cloud up over discussion of treasury rates and home interest rates, don't forget the host of other things happening. 

Everybody is borrowing and you wonder who might be paying. Open your eyes... you know the answer.

PAY ATTENTION!!!

The Good Ole Days Are Back!!?

 

Image by confused_me from Pixabay

Not really, but the PCE headline of highest inflation in 30 years, conjured back to a time 30 years ago when the PCE was the lowest it had been in awhile. It's all about the point of view or context or whatever.

A rational point of view...

Justice Kavanaugh tested positive for covid and is asymptomatic. Which brings me to why I am posting here. My old haunts have become so hateful and divided, some are wishing him the most horrible things. There are clearly some things far worse than Covid, imo.

United Kingdom...

The U.K is still experiencing petrol shortages and is still saying there is plenty of Petrol and to stop hoarding and purchase normally. Never mind the public had been purchasing normally, when the shortages began and nothing has really been changed.

Glad I live in a country where the leaders are always on the lookout for their citizens' best interest. ROFLMAO, c'mon... everyone could use a good laugh.

Debt Ceiling...

I read where Janet Yellen is proposing elimination of the "debt ceiling". May as well, as it always gets raised after much haggling back and forth. I get the idea of limiting increased debt, but each party drags their feet when the other is in power, etc. All in all, the debt just keeps on rapidly rising.

Problems with gas...

I see where China has ordered their energy companies to get supplies at any cost. At some point that has to be passed on to the customers, or the government (banks, etc) is stepping in to assist at any cost. It may not be passed on to the Chinese public, but likely to exporters. I wonder who that would be? Look out!

In addition, I read the price of natural gas is akin to $190 a barrel of oil, before this mad dash by China. Those kind of numbers would put a serious crimp in the economy, imo. How can coal prices be nearly double anything over the past 10 years, if we are moving away from coal? Oh wait... the Global consumption of Coal is not slated to start dropping until around 2030. So much for those Climate Change targets.

I owe, I owe, so off to work I go...

The U.S. International Net Position was released by the Federal Reserve. It ain't good...

It has rapidly deteriorated since last quarter. This can't end well. Of course I won't end well either, it is just which doesn't end well first. WHEW!!!

Not a lot else comes to mind and it is Friday afternoon. Back in to good old days meant the weekend was nigh. It's just another day for an old retired guy. BUT I was 30 years younger, 30 years ago and that is better than where I am now. Ugh!