Review of February 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The overall PCE edged upward, on annual basis, with PCE ex food and energy staying flat. 

Of course, the official got revised up for January, which indicates a difference from my report...

As for the personal income arena... this is the link... https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2024

Note the revisions as always, and I would recommend tracking the data monthly. Revisions are normal part of the cycle, as more data comes in. Recently however... previous data seems to come in a tad lower, which results in inflated current estimates. This was not always the case.

As for GDP, it seems to have edged up for 2023-4Q. I am not going to beat that horse over trade deficit numbers. I will simply state that prior to transfer of data from 2012 dollars into 2017 dollars, the GDP was marginally better. That adjustment amounts to about 1.9% annualized. So just take that with a grain of salt, as it is just my opinion.

One remaining bit of info can be found here. While I might harangue about the national debt, the 2023 year end net international investment was released. UGLY, at almost $20T. THAT IS WHAT WE OWE OTHER COUNTRIES.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IIPUSNETIQ

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggesting a moderation of consumption this past week, which is also seen in steadying of pump prices, with a +2¢ rise.

Current projections indicate somewhat of an easing in upward prices, with last week's forecast of upper $3.60ish, moving to mid $3.60ish, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.2M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +1.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fallen from last week's $32.24, to $29.81. Gasoline at $18.86 from last week's $20.09. Distillates at $10.95, compared to last week's $12.15.

All in all... a decent looking report, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption continues to edge up with gasoline inventories declining... result prices moving upward at the pump. Current projection is upper $3.60ish, in the next few weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.9M barrels; distillates up 600K barrels; gasoline down again at -3.4M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has leveled off since last week to $32.24, with gasoline at $20.09 from last week's $20.05. Distillates at $12.15, compared to last week's $13.13.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel in a narrow band. 

That's all for this week.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- March, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of February data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are aligning in a narrow band across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

This is from the "beginning".

I will not bore you with the whys, but a quick look at some important issues...

Another month in the bag, with inflation seemingly slowing on an annual rate, but generally speaking, the month over month rate, when annualized... is well above the annual rate. More work to do?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XII

It's been a couple of weeks, since the last review. Not a lot has changed, but there were some minor adjustments.

The republican edge in Arizona, narrowed a bit (-0.2%), but still in the slight range beyond the margin of error. 

The republican edge in Pennsylvania, increased a bit (+0.8), which moved it from the Toss Up category back to slight, with it being just above the margin of error.

The general election is 231 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 312 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 10EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.6%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Still a lot of time to go and many more polls to digest. UGH!!

My electricity bills over time (March, 2024 Edition)

Just for fun, I track my electricity usage and voila!!

Here is the annual average by year, which is distorted for 2024, as a few higher months are in play. Should come down as the heating season transitions to cooling. The latter will lift back up until the transistion period into heating.

Another way to view consumption is with a rolling 12 month average...

Obviously, the peak was in 2022, which was frought with energy price turmoil. Things appear to be settling back down, but I have no expectation for a return to levels seen only a short time ago. The rolling average is -5.4% below year ago levels.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption is heading up, just ahead of this week, last year.

Pump prices seem to be edging upward. They now appear to be heading toward a national average in the $3.60ish range. Time will tell. However, diesel seems to be trending lower.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.5M barrels; distillates up 1.0M barrels; gasoline down again at -5.6M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has shot up since last week to $33.18, with gasoline jumping to $20.05 from last week's $17.02. Distillates at $13.13, compared to last week's $12.41.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel remaining relatively flat. 

That's all for this week.

PPI Mar. 2024 release February 2024 Data

The BLS has released the February, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023.

In February, nearly two-thirds of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand goods, which advanced 1.2 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.6 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

Current graph with revisions...

Then there is this chart, which briefly compares the category to previous month's annual rate.

So the report was deemed as troubling, as it will be passed on to the consumer. No doubt inflation is not down to the level sought, but not a rapid acceleration. More of tepid acceleration in my opinion.

3/14/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for February Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, February Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2023. Total sales for the December 2023 through February 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.1 percent (±0.4 percent).

Of course the previous 2 months were revised downward...

The result in inflation adjusted sales, looked like this...

Since the pre-covid timing, the inflation report...

The average for the monthly sales starting from March 2021...

The trend is undeniably downward. 

It's not all gloom and doom, as there are areas seemingly on the uptick. Read the report and download the data, to see those areas.

 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - March 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases) 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 2.3 percent over the month, as all of its component indexes increased. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. The food away from home index rose 0.1 percent over the month.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The February number continues the 2023 1st quarter upward swing.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, albeit not as high as the CPI-U.

That is 2.5% annual, with another sharp 0.4% increase for February. The reason last month was the medical category, but is more evenly spread for this month. My worse fear being that my personal rate is edging up towards the CPI-U rate, which seems mired in a narrow range.

The R-CPI-E did ease from last month's annual of 3.5% to this month's annual of 3.4%. The month to month was still at +0.6%, but is more of a rounding issue. Last month was +0.635% and this month at +0.554%.

Across the board resulted in this picture...

As for Real Earnings.

Not such a good report, as indicated by this graph...

While the downward spike of 3¢ per hour might not seem large, it follows downward revisions in two previous months. Revisions are a normal part of the process, but a troubling trend is frequency of downward revisions in previous month's data. This tends to enhance the belief of manipulation in an election year.

This follows the pattern of jobs, GDP, etc. Not a real confidence builder, imo.

 

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption continues to rise on a weekly basis, but not yet at last year's seasonal levels.

And as can be expected... pump prices are also rising...

Refinery operational levels continue below year ago averages.

Crude inventories rose +1.4M barrels; distillates down -4.1M barrels; gasoline down -4.5M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has shot up since last week to $29.43, with gasoline jumping to $17.02 from last week's $10.89. Distillates at $12.41, compared to last week's $12.01.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel remaining relatively flat. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XI

I said I would not post another election article, unless there were changes. I guess I lied.

The national polls continue to be tight, with a slight edge to republicans. Late in 2016, it was a 4 point lead for Clinton and resulted in a 2 point lead in actual votes. 2020 saw a significant lead of about 9 points for Biden, which ended with a 4.5 point vote lead for Biden.

Of course the polls were wrong in each case. Polls seem to vary in accuracy from state to state. It could be that down ballots affected the actual vote vs polls. A dem voter in a deep red state may have seen nothing of significance on the down ballot and opted to avoid voting. 

Similarly, a weak down ballot might have discourage a dem voter from going to the polls, when they felt assured of victory for their candidate.

There are many reasons for polls not fully reflecting the actual votes. Some voter2 might be hesitant to provide their real intentions, due to a number of factors.

In any case, some states polls have been reflective of eventual outcomes. The VAR (variance) in the above chart indicates the difference between polls and outcomes. Those numbers hold largely true back to the 2000 election.

Arizona would be an example of a state that has very accurate polls... historically. Why? I don't know. The actual poll numbers might not reflect the actual vote tally, BUT the variance is undeniable. Arizona is almost always in the very accurate range, with the variance near zero.

Wisconsin is on the other end of the spectrum, with a red 6.5% variance. Meaning the margin of eventual tally is favorable to republicans by 6.5%. Thus a poll lead of 4.4% for republicans... becomes a very hard lean in favor of republicans.

When all is said and done, the current projected EV tally is REP-293, DEM-216, and TU-29, with the TUs favoring the REP.

There are 248 days until judgement day. A lot can change in that length of time... AND a lot needs to change!

Once again, I will attempt to avoid futher commenting until something does change.

Wish me luck!