1-17-2025 Week In Review

Laugh of the week

Watching Sky News and a lady proclaimed that social media sites should be held to the same strict standards as newspaper publishers and television news sites. Clearly she meant the UK, but some of the craziest and insane misinformation has come to me via Sky News and UK newspapers. 

Admittedly, the UK media is not as off the rails as American Media.

Greenland, what if...

If Greenland were to be independent, would it still be part of NATO? If not, why would we think they would align with the USA. China and/or Russia would run the bids up, imo. A strategic part of the world could be up for grabs.

Don't just laugh off the "Greenland" rhetoric, imho.

Climate Change

Accepting that the climate is definitely changing, why is all the focus all on the halt of bad emissions? If we were to suddenly halt these bad emissions, things will not return to normal the next day. In fact it would take many decades, if not hundreds of years. 

During that period of time, the ice caps will continue to melt, the oceans will continue to rise and the storm patterns will persist. The state of Florida will likely be under water, much of New York City will be under water. So why aren't preparations being made NOW... for such events?

Which brings me to...

LA Fires

There has always been wild fires in California, yet climate change is now considered the root cause. Yet nothing is being done to prepare for what should be considered a certainty. 

Blaming "climate change" is much easier than doing something, imho. 

Cease Fire

I am typing this on Thursday, 1-16-2025. Call me skeptical, but this seems like a peace deal for Biden, that will fall apart immediately and the Democrats will attempt to blame it on Trump. It theoretically takes place on Sunday, the 19th, so I think shortly after noon on the 20th... things will fall apart. 

Economic reports this week

A lot of pink, which indicates rising numbers, but not above expectations, imo.

Also, the retail sales report clocked in with an inflation adjusted +1.0% over the preceding 12 months. The current inflation adjusted sales is the highest since January, 2023.

Energy

Pump prices will likely rise about a nickel over the next couple of weeks. Which matches the nickel rise over the past week. 

That's it, this is getting boring.

1-10-2025 Week In Review

Weather

Yep, been a fun few days, as we received about 6" of snow, then about 3/4" of ice, then another 3" of snow. I am no longer able to clear the driveway, so hoping nothing in the way of an emergency.

I have no real reason to leave the house, although the long range forecast shows no warming temperatures to thaw that mess. Another 2" predicted for this weekend, below freezing temps through the following weekend, with a possible big snow of 6"+. 

Groceries might be needed.

Politics

You already know the U.S. news, but what about abroad?

U.K. news media is all a-flutter over Musk tweets. This forced the Labour government to respond. Apparently, there was a grooming gang problem back a decade ago, which resulted in several inquiries, which further resulted in recommendations. 

A decade later, after the Musk tweets, it seems the Labour government has decided to begin implementing some of those recommendations. 

Sir Keir Starmer was the head of the Crown Prosecution Services back in the day, and is now Prime Minister. He claims Musk is promoting a right wing attack. Strange that nothing was implemented until Musk got to tweeting. 

So successive U.K. governments did nothing and it is Musk's fault for tweeting about it. Hard to imagine where the issue would be without the tweets. 

A Sky News (UK) reporter, after news of META dropping "fact-checking" and going to community notes... asked the question of what is the future of liberal fact-checking. The irony of such a question.

I watch Sky News on a regular basis and the opinion I have is... The U.K. has much bigger problems than Musk tweeting.

Back to the U.S., and is the media hyperventilating like they did... 8 years ago? It does seem that way to me. 

Energy

Not much to say, although pump prices likely to rise a nickel in the coming week. Same for diesel.

and the rest...

Fires. Plentiful dry vegetation, high winds, and homes built of largely dry timber. Just takes a spark.

Jobs report. Looks really good, but remember all the revisions the past year. I'll take a wait and see.

Zombie companies. These are companies that seemingly were profitable, but largely due to low interest bonds and rates. Those days are gone and we will likely see some corporate profits suffer as these bonds are rolled over.

Trump jail. He's a convicted felon without having to spend time in jail, or on parole, etc. Almost as good as a pardon. Speaking of which... wonder who else is about to get pardoned. 

Greenland. This suddenly got interesting.

Changing direction on blogging

A new year is upon us, and just some thoughts.

I am changing direction, as I will restrict my blog entries on a variety of topics. I still track those areas, but find it a bit time consuming to post. Besides, it seems to have cluttered up the site, with no meaningful outside interest.

Thus returning to my thoughts and opinions. Which could be about anything. 

The presidential election is over, but politics is never over, so there is that.

The economy is something of interest, which includes several items and becomes political.

International events might arise, which are also political in nature. 

Frankly, about everything that happens anymore... becomes political, whether immigration, crime, etc.

I could summarize what transpired in 2024, but you should already know. What none of us know... is what impact it will have on 2025.

We have the debt ceiling, a new congress, a new president, wars cropping up everywhere, and the list goes on and on. 

After the past few years of revisions to various previous month's economic numbers, which resulted in more positive news on date of release... we will likely start to see the truth going forward. I am suggesting the results have not been as positive as the media has proclaimed. 

Energy Prices

Futures indicate that gasoline pump prices ranging from -4.2¢~+4.4¢ over the near term. 

Port Strike

It strongly appears that the ILA v USMX strike will be postponed for 3 1/2 months, as that would be the most beneficial for both sides. 

Tariffs

Has anyone been watching the foreign exchange market? The Yen and Yuan have been weakening against the dollar. So have a host of other currencies. 

Woohoo! The strong dollar fans are overlooking what caused offshoring and will inhibit reshoring. Our trading partners are not converting all those sales in dollars... back to their native currencies. No, they are purchasing Dollarized assets, such as bonds, financials, properties, etc. 

Basically... propping up the dollar. We have not learned a darn thing over the past 40 years, as to why the early 80s inflation was brought down so low, until the great covid shipping snafu. 

That's it for this week.

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -8.8¢, or -2.88%. Days supply fell to 25.2. For perspective... last year was 25.7 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -4.2M barrels; Distillates down -1.7M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -12.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +260K barrels.

The total products is still +16.2M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $16.89, to $16.68. Gasoline rose to $7.74, from last week's $7.68. Distillates fell to $8.94, compared to last week's $9.22. Per barrel of diesel is $29.60; Per barrel of gasoline is $17.02. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.7¢ ~ +1.9¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

I will continue to track the Energy Reports for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +1.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -3.2¢, or -1.2%. Days supply fell to 25.4. For perspective... last year was 26.5 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -934K barrels; Distillates down -3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -2.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +519K barrels.

The total products is still +11.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels. 

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.11, to $16.89. Gasoline fell to $7.67, from last week's $8.38. Distillates rose to $9.22, compared to last week's $8.72. Per barrel of diesel is $30.53; Per barrel of gasoline is $16.86. Generally speaking... above $25 indicates rises. 

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -.02¢ ~ +4.2¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

With the profitability of diesel increasing, the potential for added refining could increase gasoline supplies, which has been shown of late. So it is possible that gasoline will continue somewhat lower, but diesel appears to be headed up. 

Time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 4 of 4 and conclusion

 It would appear the final counts for the election are now completed.

There were 1,963,624 fewer votes than in 2020, although still substantially higher than 2016.

At this point, most have moved on to projecting candidates for 2028, etc. I keep hearing about Harris, but cannot fathom how she could be perceived as a viable candidate, either for governor of California in 2026. or the 2028 presidential cycle.

It just does not compute in my head, how a "Californian" could so underperform Biden in California against Trump. There are other signs on the national level as well. 

However, a lot can change in a short time. The past 7 months is a strong indication of how much things can change.

[In any case, I will now move on from this election, and conclude this series of blogposts.]

Advance Retail Sales Report- December 17th, 2024

November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023. Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.75% annual, and down 0.05% on the month. 

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

There us an upward trend in inflation adjusted sales, but have not regained the level of January, 2023.

Pay close attention to the data, as 70% of that advance from last month was "auto and other motor veh. dealers."

The question is why such a sudden jump? Not that I am questioning the data, as it mirrors the recently released SAAR, which was also a sharp rise... which was unexpected. So what is causing these unexpected numbers?

While I will continue to track the Advance Retail Sales for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of Advance Retail Sales going forward]

PPI - Dec. 2024 release with Nov. 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.  

As for the report card, it indicates inflationary pressures currently exist, with upward pressure into the future.

While the forecasts are not screaming rampant inflation, we should consider that we are currently at historical low points of monthly inflation... meaning the rate will pick up in the coming year, without the pending threat of tariffs.

[While I will continue to track the PPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of PPI going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -1.3¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -13.3¢, or -4.2%. Days supply rose to 25.5. For perspective... last year was 26.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.4M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +5.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -195K barrels, with the SPR rising +724K barrels.

The total products is still +17.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.41, to $17.11. Gasoline fell to $8.38, from last week's $8.73. Distillates slid to $8.72, compared to last week's $8.68.

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -3.1¢ ~ +4.4¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

We may be nearing the end of downward pressures on gasoline. Just have to wait and see.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - December 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings. 

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.25 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.99, up 43¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.87. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.45. Up 4¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

[While I will continue to track the real earning report for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of real earnings going forward]

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

The 2.749% is above last month's 2.598% is back above the 2.62% of March, 2021, and still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.  

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI stayed steady at 2.9% Y/Y, but rose +0.3% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

The current report card...

My concern going forward, is that several elements of the CPI are at seasonal norms, as in likely to head upward. The various forecasts, seem to agree.

[While I will continue to track the CPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of CPI going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -0.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -20.9¢, or -6.4%. Days supply rose to 24.5. For perspective... last year was 26.2 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -5.1M barrels; Distillates up +3.4M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -3.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +7.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.96, to $17.41. Gasoline fell to $8.73, from last week's $8.76. Distillates slid to $8.68, compared to last week's $9.21.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.4¢ ~ +3.6¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.7¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -17.7¢, or -5.4%. Days supply rose to 24.2. For perspective... last year was 24.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.8M barrels; Distillates up +416K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -625K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.2M barrels.

The total products is still +9.8M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $18.64, to $17.96. Gasoline fell to $8.76, from last week's $9.46. Distillates rose to $9.21, compared to last week's $9.18.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -1.9¢ ~ +3.1¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 3 of ?

We now have about 99.5% of the votes tabulated. 

The final tally will not change the electoral outcome, but the final Trump tally will be near 49.88% or approximately 187,000 below a majority vote.

Trump will likely end up about 2.9M votes ahead of 2020, while Harris will likely come in with 6.6M less than Biden's 2020 numbers.

A lot has been made of how much Trump outperformed Biden's 2020 percentages in various minorities and demographic groups. 

I am trying to find some vote totals of these groups. 

Example: if 10 people of a certain group voted in 2020, and 8 voted for Biden and 2 voted for Trump, then Trump received 20%. However, if 8 voted in 2024, and 6 for Harris and 2 for Trump... Trump outperformed the 2020 percent with 25% in 2024.

So I tend to question those percentages, given the anticipated 4.0M less votes in 2024. My opinion would be the Harris candidacy was not well received and it is possible voters saw no real reason to bother with voting.

A couple of states...

The numbers for 2024, are projected, based on current data. It is clear that Trump had no major gains, while a dramatic drop off for Harris... compared to Biden's 2020 numbers.

There are some that have already turned their attention to 2028. There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge, between then and now... such as economy, wars, and such.

21 months ago, I previewed the 2024 election, with this.

A lot changed in that 21 months. Of course we all know about the Biden drop out, but most of the names listed in that article have fallen by the wayside. The Democrats have few remaining serious contenders for 2028, and the Republicans have only a couple. 

Sure, you might wish to put forth one or two on the democrat side as contenders, but it won't happen. The republicans on that list... boil down to a couple potentials. 

I am hard pressed to see any additions to the 2028 prospects, while the Republicans have added a couple and will be the higher visibility party for awhile.

Once again... a lot of water to flow under that bridge.

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.8¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -24.2¢, or -7.3%. Days supply rose to 23.4. For perspective... last year was 24.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +545K barrels; Distillates down -114K barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose -4.4M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.95, to $18.64. Gasoline rose to $9.46, from last week's $8.99. Distillates rose to $9.18, compared to last week's $8.96.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. +2.3¢ ~ +3.6¢. Supposedly, this will be blamed on missiles in Ukraine, causing price of oil to move.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

My electricity bills over time (November, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI. 

The October bill came in much higher than last year. +16.2% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is up +0.4% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy, as it is below other cost of living factors.

[EDIT: 12-17-24. While I will continue to track the my electricity usage for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of said usage going forward]

2024 Presidential Election Review, part 2 of ?

Just updated the projections for final vote tally.

Still projecting Trump to slip just below the 50% + 1 vote majority. Currently at -41,686. Of the remaining projected votes... 91.1% are in typical Democrat states, with 56.4% in California.

The final vote tally will likely be -3.8 million of 2020 final tally.

Reviewing the states, compared to 2020. (less is in RED)

It would seem that voter turnout may have been a factor in the toss-up states. While there are a few "red" states with lower turnout, the eye catching numbers of some "blue" states... does leave some questions, imho.

Advance Retail Sales Report- November 17th, 2024

October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023. Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

 Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.6% annual, and up 0.12% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

I will allow you to review the data from the Census Bureau, and make your own judgements. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary November 15th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.5¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -26.1¢, or -7.8%. Days supply slid to 22.9. For perspective... last year was 24.0 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +2.1M barrels; Distillates down -199K barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -4.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -5.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +81K barrels.

The total products is still +13.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $17.00, to $17.95. Gasoline rose to $8.99, from last week's $8.44. Distillates rose to $8.96, compared to last week's $8.57.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.7¢ ~ +3.0¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.