This Week in Petroleum Summary 9-13-2023, per EIA.GOV

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.827, to $3.848. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.707, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low of $3.096.

Consumption edged down a bit.

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks increased +4.0M barrels, from last week, and is -3.6% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -0.4% below that adjusted 5 year average.

Distillates inventory rose +3.9M barrels; and Gasoline inventories rose +5.6M barrels. Distillates (-10.7%,-2.0%) and Gasoline (-1.0%, -0.3%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased another 290K barrels this past week. This is the 6th straight week for increases, which were the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $88.77, compared to $86.70 (+2.4%), one week ago, and $87.36, one year ago (+1.7%).

Refinery slipped on a weekly basis, but remains above year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 845M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. That number actually decreased by 3M barrels this past week. Likely due to the massive drop in crude exports, which may be attributed to when a ship leaves port. Look out next week.

Taking that into consideration... crude stocks may wane, compared to this time last year, with current days supply at 25.2, to last year's 26.7 days.

Gasoline exports/imports were about even this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 108.4M barrels being exported over imports.

Inventories are up across the board, with refineries purring right along. Pump prices should be falling, but they aren't. All those signs are pointing to $4 a gallon.

What am I missing?

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August 30, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) slipped from last report's $3.845, to $3.827. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.844, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

It has edged upward, by 0.9¢ the past 3 days. The market is pointing toward a bit more upward movement, but that remains to be seen.

Consumption steadied at last week's pace, which is +2.3% above year ago level. In theory, consumption should begin to taper off in September. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 30 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks slid another -10.6M barrels, from last week, and is -3.4% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +0.4% above normal.

Distillates inventory rose +1.2M barrels; and Gasoline inventories slipped about -214K barrels. Distillates (-13%,-2.6%) and Gasoline (-3.2%, -1.4%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased another 600K barrels this past week. This is the 4th straight week for increases, which are the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $81.74, compared to $78.96 (+3.5%), one week ago, and $89.03, one year ago (-8.2%).

Refinery output slipped on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 829.9M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped +11.8M barrels this past week. (Distillates account for approximately 77%.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat decnt, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 25.4, to last year's 25.5 days.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August 23, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) slipped from last report's $3.873, to $3.845. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.892, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

Consumption increase +1.4% week over week, and is +2.9% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average). 

The good news, is the price seems to be easing a bit. Hopefully, it becomes a trend.

If history tells us anything... the increased consumption should begin to wane in the next couple of weeks. Then, if nothing else snaps... a descent in pump prices might be achieved. 👍

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 23 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks slid another -6.1M barrels, from last week, and is -2.5% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +1.4% above normal.

Distillates inventory rose +945K barrels; and Gasoline inventories rose about +1.4M barrels. Distillates (-14.5%,-3.9%) and Gasoline (-3.7%, -1.9%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased 600K barrels this past week. This is the 3rd straight week for increases, which are the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $78.96, compared to $79.26 (-0.4%), one week ago, and $94.40, one year ago (-16.4%).

Refinery output edged upward on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 818.1M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped +10.5M barrels this past week. (Distillates account for approximately 73%.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 26.0, to last year's 25.9 days.

Oddly in mid March, certain factors were quoted as the reason for runup in Crude prices, into Mid April. In early July, the same factors were quoted and as a reason for runup in Crude prices... until 2 weeks ago.

It may well be, that some of those factors will come into play. Be wary of the track record, imho.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August 16, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.825, to $3.873. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.949, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

Consumption slipped -0.3% week over week, and is +0.6% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average). 

Having completely missed the pump price direction the past couple of weeks... I'll avoid any predictions for the this. Although my tried and true method has suddenly gone awry.

One thing is almost certain... The August CPI report will bring added political scrutiny to the price of gasoline. So pick your favorite bogeyman... the Ukraine War, Putin, price gouging by the oil industry, refineries, and the list goes on.

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 16 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks slid -6.0M barrels, from last week, and is -2.3% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +1.3% above normal.

Distillates inventory rose +296K barrels; and Gasoline inventories fell about -262K barrels. Distillates (-15.1%,-5.2%) and Gasoline (-5.0%, -2.6%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased 600K barrels this past week. This follows last week's increase, which was the first real increase since early January, 2021.

WTI is $79.26, compared to $83.77 (-5.4%), one week ago, and $89.67, one year ago(-11.6%).

Refinery output edged upward on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 807.6M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped +12.3M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 26.5, to last year's 26.2 days.

Despite previous weeks concern about production cuts, it seems that China's lack of anticipated rebound... is becoming the dominant issue.

At least in the current news cycle.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August 09, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.803, to $3.825. One year ago the price had fallen to $4.033, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

Consumption slipped -0.3% week over week, and is +1.2% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average). 

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, rose to +106.2M barrels. That is an +1.8M barrel increase over the week.

I was again overly optimistic, with a projection of -4¢~ -11¢ for the week, and the result a 2.2¢ increase.

My crystal ball was wrong, so could be wrong this time as well. Pump prices really should peak and drift -4¢ to -7¢ lower.

However, the crude and gasoline markets seem to be in a bit of hysteria at the moment. How much fear is warranted and how much is hype? I dunno.

One thing is for certain, the CPI energy index is popping for August, coupled with projected food increases and core remaining hefty. The CPI imprint for tomorrow is projected to rise above last month's annual increase... and August looks like a hard tick upward, at this point. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 09 2023

 Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks rose +5.8M barrels, from last week, and is -1.9% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +1.4% above normal.

Distillates inventory slid -1.7M barrels; and Gasoline inventories fell about -2.7M barrels. Distillates (-15.2%,-4.4%) and Gasoline (-5.5%, -3.2%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased 995K barrels this past week. The first real increase since early January, 2021.

WTI is $83.77, compared to $79.45 (+5.4%), one week ago, and $90.47, one year ago(-7.4%).

Refinery output remained steady on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 795.2M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped 2.0M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 26.6, to last year's 26.3 days.

One noticeable shift in this week's report, was the rather dramatic drop... in crude exports. This may have just been a timing issue. That would account for about half of the crude inventory increase, as well as another near 1M barrel increase in SPR.

If it is a timing issue, then the expectation would be for a drop in crude inventory for next week, which may explain the rapid rise in WTI crude price today.

For some reason, there is concern about the future of crude inventories, and may be warranted, but historically... the inventory is well above average, both numerically and in days supply.

Puzzling!

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.687, to $3.803. One year ago the price had fallen to $4.189, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

Consumption slipped -0.8% week over week, and is +3.7% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average). 

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, fell to +104.4M barrels. That is an -889K barrel decrease over the week.

I was again overly optimistic, with a projection of +5¢ for the week, and the result being much higher.

I do, however, think the recent runup has nearly run its course. So here goes a brave prediction... pump prices should steady and begin to fall in the -4¢ to -11¢ range.

Okay, it may be wishful thinking, but the cards that kept telling me there was upward bias, (although missing the extent), are now telling me... pump prices will ease off. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 02 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks fell a whopping -17M barrels, from last week, and is -2.8% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +1.1% above normal.

Distillates inventory slid -796K barrels; and Gasoline inventories increased about +1.5M barrels. Distillates (-14.2%,-3.4%) and Gasoline (-5.3%, -3.3%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR has remained stable for 3 weeks.

WTI is $79.45, compared to $78.94 (+06%), one week ago, and $89.74, one year ago(-9.9%).

Refinery output improved on a weekly basis, and has edged above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 793M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped nearly 22.0M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 26.6, to last year's 26.3 days.

Is it a rinse and repeat of April? At that time, the crude prices jumped and many reasons were given... yet prices fell back. This time the same reasons were given for the rise, but the prices are slipping. 

How much is hype and how much is real?

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, July 26, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.569, to $3.687. One year ago the price had fallen to $4.327, and was on its downward trajectory... into the mid September lull, around  $3.67. The current price is in line with last November's pump price.

Consumption slipped -2.2% week over week, and is +1.2% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average). 

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, jumped to +105.3M barrels. That is an 1.7Mb increase over the week.

My past week prediction of a 5¢ rise in pump prices, turns out to have been optimistic, after an 11.8¢ rise. 

The current read of the cards, has a continued upward bias, with a near 6¢ increase. Hopefully, that is the extent.

I can think of many possible reasons for the rise, but they would just be speculation on my part. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - July 26 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks fell by -600K barrels, from last week, yet remains only -0.3% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +4.2% above normal.

Distillates inventory slid 245K barrels; and Gasoline inventories slid at about 800K barrels. Distillates (-13.5%,-3.2%) and Gasoline (-5.8%, -3.1%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR halted the decline last week and remains unchanged from this report.

WTI is $78.94, compared to $75.38 (+4.8%), one week ago, and $94.65, one year ago(-16.6%).

Refinery output improved on a weekly basis, yet remains below year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 771.2M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped nearly 16.9M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain quite healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 27.8, to last year's 25.6 days.

It is 6 of one and a half dozen of the other, for the crude prices moving upward. Supposedly China's crude demand will increase, due to Government intervention, although the outcome is still in doubt. The Saudi's will reduce production starting next month, although there are reports of increased Russian exports. 

All of this was theorized in April and then prices fell. Will this be a repeat?

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, July 19, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report to $3.569. One year ago the price had fallen to $4.495, and was on its downward trajectory... into the mid September lull, around  $3.67.

Consumption slipped week over week, but stands 3.8% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).

he import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, jumped to +103.6M barrels. It had basically remained flat for the past 3 months, until the previous week's +2.3M barrel jump, and this past week at +2.5M barrels.

The pump prices are most likely set to rise, but in the 5¢ range. This is mostly based on crack spread edging up, exports, and refinery operation rates. Take you pick.

After the ups and downs, the pattern seems to be stable in the $3.55~$3.65 range. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - July 19 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks fell by -708K barrels, from last week, yet remains down -0.8% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +3.2% above normal.

Distillates inventory edged up 13K barrels; and Gasoline inventories slid at about 1M barrels. Distillates (-13.9%,-3.5%) and Gasoline (-6.1%, -3.6%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR halted the decline and actually increased 1K barrels. 

WTI is $75.38, compared to $75.87, one week ago, and $96.88, one year ago.

Refinery output improved on a weekly basis, yet remains below year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 754M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped nearly 9.3M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain quite healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 27.9, to last year's 25.8 days.

I have read where the talk is about crude prices jumping up and it might happen. However, how much of it is wishful thinking by crude traders? It is more satisfying to buy low and sell high... in an ever rising market.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, July 12, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report to $3.541, as anticipated. One year ago the price had fallen to $4.665, and was on its downward trajectory... into the mid September lull, around  $3.67.

Consumption slipped week over week, but stands 6.3% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, jumped to +101.1M barrels. It had basically remained flat for the past 3 months, until this past week's 2.3M barrel jump.

Rinse and repeat. There remains a slight upward bias, mostly due to a jump in WTI price, due to mostly dollar fall, mostly due to anticipation of FED pausing rate hikes, due to today's CPI report. 

All of which will likely come due... when next month's CPI tracks higher. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - July 12 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks Increased by +5.9M barrels, from last week, yet remains down -0.9% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +2.5% above normal.

Distillates inventory jumped +4.8M barrels; and Gasoline inventories stayed flat. Distillates (-14%,-3.7%) and Gasoline (-5.6%, -2.8%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR fell another -401K barrels.

WTI is $75.87, compared to $72.09, one week ago, and $90.15, one year ago.

Refinery output imporved on a weekly basis, yet remains below year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 745M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped nearly 10M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain quite healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 28, compared to last year's 25.9 days.

So how could inventories increase and yet the price of WTI go up? It is petro dollars and the dollar slipped due to the anticipated great news on the CPI, which would mean the FED might pause rate hikes. 

As the old saying goes...

You can fool all of the people some of the time,

And fool some of the people all of the time.

But you can't fool all the people, all of the time.

The question becomes... who is fooling whom? 

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, July 06, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) eased down  from last report to $3.529. One year ago the price had ballooned to $4.779, but was on its downward trajectory... into the mid September lull, around  $3.67.

Consumption increased week over week, and stands 5.0% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands steady at +98.7M barrels. It has basically remained flat for the past 3 months.

Rinse and repeat. There remains a slight upward bias, even though pump prices edged down this past week. 

Nothing dramatic, imho.

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - July 06 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks fell by -1.5M barrels, from last week, and remains down -2.5% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +1.6% above normal.

Distillates inventory slid -1M barrels; and Gasoline inventories dropped by -2.5M barrels. Distillates and Gasoline are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR fell another -1.458M barrels.

WTI is $72.09, compared to $69.45, one week ago, and $101.53, one year ago.

Refinery output slid on a weekly basis, and compared to year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 735M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped nearly 4.2M barrels this past week.

Overall, crude stocks remain quite healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 27.7, compared to last year's 25.8 days.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, June 28, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) eased down  from last report to $3.556, or -2.5¢. One year ago the price had ballooned to $4.881, and was on its downward trajectory... into the mid September lull, around  $3.67.

Consumption increase week over week, and stands 4.5% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +98.7M barrels. It has basically remained flat for the past 3 months.

Where will pump prices be next week? My estimate last week was ±7¢, with a downward bias. Result was down -2.5¢. Sooo... ±5¢, with an ever so slight upward bias.