Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.827, to $3.848. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.707, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low of $3.096.
Consumption edged down a bit.
Crude stocks increased +4.0M barrels, from last week, and is -3.6% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -0.4% below that adjusted 5 year average.
Distillates inventory rose +3.9M barrels; and Gasoline inventories rose +5.6M barrels. Distillates (-10.7%,-2.0%) and Gasoline (-1.0%, -0.3%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.
The SPR increased another 290K barrels this past week. This is the 6th straight week for increases, which were the first since January, 2021.
WTI is $88.77, compared to $86.70 (+2.4%), one week ago, and $87.36, one year ago (+1.7%).
Refinery slipped on a weekly basis, but remains above year ago levels.
For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 845M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. That number actually decreased by 3M barrels this past week. Likely due to the massive drop in crude exports, which may be attributed to when a ship leaves port. Look out next week.
Taking that into consideration... crude stocks may wane, compared to this time last year, with current days supply at 25.2, to last year's 26.7 days.
Gasoline exports/imports were about even this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 108.4M barrels being exported over imports.
Inventories are up across the board, with refineries purring right along. Pump prices should be falling, but they aren't. All those signs are pointing to $4 a gallon.
What am I missing?
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