Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) rose from last report's $3.687, to $3.803. One year ago the price had fallen to $4.189, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

Consumption slipped -0.8% week over week, and is +3.7% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average). 


The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, fell to +104.4M barrels. That is an -889K barrel decrease over the week.


I was again overly optimistic, with a projection of +5¢ for the week, and the result being much higher.

I do, however, think the recent runup has nearly run its course. So here goes a brave prediction... pump prices should steady and begin to fall in the -4¢ to -11¢ range.

Okay, it may be wishful thinking, but the cards that kept telling me there was upward bias, (although missing the extent), are now telling me... pump prices will ease off. 

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