This Week in Petroleum Summary February 22nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Indicators have aligned to suggest upward movement in consumption.

Pump prices have generally stabilized, but I would suggest an upward movement into the $3.50ish range. Very similar to early spring of last year, imho.

Refinery operation continues to ease off, according to the latest 4 wk average.

Crude inventories rose +3.5M barrels; distillates down -4.0M barrels; gasoline down -293K barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added the distillate/diesel category to reflect the volumes + percentages. Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is $24.83 per barrel, with $12.91 coming from distillate and $11.91 from gasoline. 

All those numbers are down from previous week.

That's all for now. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Mixed messages on consumption.

Pump prices are rising, probably towards that $3.50ish level in the next couple of months.

Refinery operation slipped this report.

Crude inventories rose +12.0M barrels; distillates down -1.9M barrels; gasoline down +3.7M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added the distillate/diesel category to reflect the volumes. Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is 27.51 per barrel, with $14.97 coming from distillate and $12.55 from gasoline. 

That's all for now. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - February 13, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The January number reverses the 2023 fall downward trend and achieves an all time high.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, with a decent jump last month.

That is 2.3% annual, with a sharp 0.6% increase for January. The reason mainly being under the medical category and the fact it takes up much more weight, than the BLS weighting does. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue, but after all the "medical" adjustment to the CPI now finished... look out! 

As a side note the R-CPI-E was up 0.6% for the month and 3.5% annual. (R-CPI-E= Research consumer price index for Americans age 62 years of age and older).

Also, the gasoline index is now popping, after actually falling in January. Again... look out!!

As for Real Earnings.

Weekly wages seem to be slowing for some reason, which is reflected across the board, to the working stiffs.

Not a really bad report, but be on the outlook for any worrying trends to develop, imho.

Still, the overall seems to be easing off, even if a hiccup here and there. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 7th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Pump Prices are drifing in a narrow range, with not much upward pressure... yet! 

Overall...

Crude inventories rose +5.5M barrels; distillates down -3.2M barrels; gasoline down +3.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added distillates (diesel) to the chart. I had read a rather hysterical article about the impending distillate shortage, as distillates were down 5% from 5 year average... yada, yada. 

So yes, distillates are down -5.1% from historical 5 year average, but that five years includes that covid period, where consumption cratered and inventories skyrocketed. 

Discounting that period, the reading is -1.7%. Considering the refiners make more money from diesel than gasoline... I would expect refining operating capacity percent to rise. Given current crude mixes, this should keep gasoline prices in check, even if diesel rises slightly. 

We'll just have to wait and see. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 31st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption slightly above year ago, yet down very slightly from last week. Pump Prices are drifting higher.

The pump prices do remain down from this time last year.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +1.2M barrels; distillates down -2.5M barrels; gasoline up +1.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Everything seems to be quiet, even with the news about middle east, Ukraine, etc. I think the energy market has rebalanced.

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption down, which is likely expected... considering the wide spread winter weather. Additionally, it is possible that refinery operations were impacted as well. It would take a couple more weeks of data to tell the tale.

Prices do seem ready to rise, but still... more data required.

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -9.2M barrels; distillates down -1.4M barrels; gasoline up +4.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Not sure of the impact of weather on refining, consumption, etc. Time will tell, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 18th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Rather ho hum, imho. Gasoline onsumption continues in a rather narrow band, with pump prices staying fairly flat. 

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -2.5M barrels; distillates up +2.4M barrels; gasoline up +3.1M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Good news continues, but not sure how long that will last. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - January 11, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

Not sure what the hoopla is about, regarding coming in hotter than expected. Factoring the rounding, it was just a few basis points above my expectations.

The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 0.4 percent over the month as increases in the electricity index and the gasoline index more than offset a decrease in the natural gas index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in December, as it did in November. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent. 

I highlighted a portion of that statements, as it is weird as heck. Gasoline in the November report was 297.598 and December gave a 280.289. Granted that is "unadjusted", but seriously... where did the increase in gasoline index come from? Nationally, the prices are down from last month, about 18¢ and down about 9¢ from December of 2022. Yet, somehow the "seasonally adjusted" edged up enough to offset something else.

Even by the BLS numbers from December, 2022... gasoline fell -1.5% (unadjusted)  on the month and was -9.4% on the seasonal adjustments. December, 2023... saw gasoline fall -1.9% on the unadjusted monthly, ... but rose +0.2 of the seasonal adjustments.  

In any case, the top number has decreased for 3 consecutive months. Now that would be seasonal, as November and December of 2022... saw decreases. It reversed in the January 2023 report.

My own personal CPI looks like this...

That is a +2.2% increase annually, and +0.1% for the month.

As for Real Earnings.

Remember when covid disrupted everything and massive shutdowns, layoffs, etc. Comparing that $380.95 real weekly earning, compared to February, 2020's $378.92. 

It is better than nothing!

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Consumption continues to edge up on a yearly basis, when  adjusting for inventory. Weekly, consumption has slid 2 consecutive weeks, similar to previous years. We'll need to see if seasonal patterns continue in the next couple of weeks... and beyond.

Pricing continues to remain stable...

The overall picture...

Crude inventories increased +1.3M barrels; distillates up +6.5M barrels; gasoline up +8M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Looks like good news, but will it continue?

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Consumption slid, although not sure if a downward trend is developing. Last year's data would indicate a downward direction for a couple more weeks. 

Pricing seems to be at a plateau, with very small movements in either direction.

The overall picture...

While crude inventories slipped (-5.5M barrels) from last week, the Gasoline and Distillate inventories rose by 10M barrels each. Even the SPR increased by 1M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

All is well, until things become unwell! 

That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

This Week in Petroleum Summary 12-28-2023, per EIA.GOV

A quick summary of this week's report.

Consumption continues to edge upward, although pump prices seem to be in a narrow range. There does not seem to be an upward bias in these prices, with the potential of -5¢ drop, which includes diesel.

Overall...

For those interested the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

That's a wrap for this week.