My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
My electricity bills over time (April, 2024 Edition)
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
BLS Data Dump. CPI - April 10th, 2024
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.
Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...
Saturday, March 16, 2024
My electricity bills over time (March, 2024 Edition)
Just for fun, I track my electricity usage and voila!!
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
BLS Data Dump. CPI - March 12th, 2024
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 2.3 percent over the month, as all of its component indexes increased. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. The food away from home index rose 0.1 percent over the month.
While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The February number continues the 2023 1st quarter upward swing.
Saturday, February 17, 2024
My electricity bills over time (February, 2024 Edition)
Yep, time for the review of electricity consumption... MINE!
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
BLS Data Dump. CPI - February 13, 2024
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.
While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The January number reverses the 2023 fall downward trend and achieves an all time high.
Saturday, January 20, 2024
My electricity bills over time (January, 2024 Edition)
It is January, and the monthly bill has arrived.
Thursday, January 11, 2024
BLS Data Dump. CPI - January 11, 2024
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
Not sure what the hoopla is about, regarding coming in hotter than expected. Factoring the rounding, it was just a few basis points above my expectations.
The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 0.4 percent over the month as increases in the electricity index and the gasoline index more than offset a decrease in the natural gas index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in December, as it did in November. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent.
I highlighted a portion of that statements, as it is weird as heck. Gasoline in the November report was 297.598 and December gave a 280.289. Granted that is "unadjusted", but seriously... where did the increase in gasoline index come from? Nationally, the prices are down from last month, about 18¢ and down about 9¢ from December of 2022. Yet, somehow the "seasonally adjusted" edged up enough to offset something else.
Even by the BLS numbers from December, 2022... gasoline fell -1.5% (unadjusted) on the month and was -9.4% on the seasonal adjustments. December, 2023... saw gasoline fall -1.9% on the unadjusted monthly, ... but rose +0.2 of the seasonal adjustments.
In any case, the top number has decreased for 3 consecutive months. Now that would be seasonal, as November and December of 2022... saw decreases. It reversed in the January 2023 report.
Thursday, December 14, 2023
My electricity bills over time (December 2023 Edition)
It's December and the monthly bill has arrived.
[I suspect it might continue to be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime. Additionally, the number of days between meter readings vary.]
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 12, 2023
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
I think the numbers were somewhat in line with everyone's expectations.
I do find the food portion of the darn thing a bit intriguing.
Oddly, when adjusting the index to "average" household spending the food at home has jumped 29.6%, in current dollars.
What really catches the eye, is the -8.5% drop in current dollars for food away from home. This would be cafeterias, restaurants, and other places "away" from home.
This type of comparison with weightings against the index, further indicates a drop in current dollar spending for food in all categories... compared to rate of inflation.Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Here is a graph...
Friday, December 1, 2023
My Analysis Methods Regarding CPI and Weightings.
I was prompted recently, by the uproar of the inflation data and CPI "hiding" information. I think the information is there, but a lot of folks don't bother to read past the headline.
An example would be the food component.
To understand my recent research, understand an article was written by a mainstream media source that stated... the typical American family must spend $11,400 more now on the basics, compared to January of 2021. They cited the BLS data.
So the January 2021 BLS report, had the print at 261.582. The October 2023 BLS report, rolled in at 307.671. Overall, it shows inflation rose 17.619%, during that period.
If that family is spending $11.4K more, then they were spending at an annual rate of $64,700, in January 2021, compared to a current rate of $76,100. A difference of $11.4K or 17.619%.
This is the basic CPI print for food total, food at home, and food away from home...
Now that those conditions are understood... onto the weightings.
This is what happens, when the weightings are thrown into the mix...
Note that food overall is much less at 11.4%, than the first chart's 20.2%. However, food at home jumps to 29.4% from the former chart's 20.9%. Oddly, the actual food away from home spending has fallen -10.7% since January 2021.
We are spending much more on food at home, than the BLS numbers indicate. It is due to fluctuations in weightings. These fluctuations are found in almost, if not all... categories.
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
My electricity bills over time (January 2017~ November 2023)
Once again, I monitor my residential electricity costs.
[I suspect it might continue to be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime. Additionally, the number of days between meter readings vary.]
Thursday, October 12, 2023
BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 12, 2023
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.
I had readings of 3.6%~3.9%, so the 3.7% was within that range.
The past 12 months...
Monday, September 25, 2023
My electricity bills over time (January 2017~ September 2023)
Once again, I monitor my residential electricity costs.
[I suspect it might be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime. Additionally, the number of days between meter readings vary.]
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
BLS Data Dump. CPI - September 13, 2023
First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month. The energy index rose 5.6 percent in August as all the major energy component indexes increased. The food index increased 0.2 percent in August, as it did in July. The index for food at home increased 0.2 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in August.
Depending on which consensus forecast you use, this was either slightly above or slighty below.
It was slightly below my chosen group. I had mentioned +0.8% increase, versus +0.6% actual. Both the month to month and annual were slightly below my chosen group's forecast. +3.8% versus +3.7%.
The actual readings.
Considering that the C.O.L.A is nearly set at 3.2%, it is time to look at impact on old folks, such as myself. While mine edged up this month, the R-CPI-E, is well above the 3.2% C.O.L.A. at 4.2%. R-CPI-E stands for Research CPI Experimental, not the retired cpi elderly, that some people think. However, it was experimental research targeting 62 year olds and over.
For years the Medicare B standard rates were announced in November. Last year the Biden Adminstration had it announced almost simultaneously with the C.O.L.A. While the Biden White House ballyhooed the 8.7% C.O.L.A. as an achievement, then quickly caught flak for taking credit for inflation, they were able to rejoice in the Medicare B standard rates falling.
With the likelihood of Medicare B standard rates being raised... Gee, I wonder when that announcement will come?
With the headline CPI being 3.2% in July, and currently 3.7% for August, the September forecast of 3.6% will come out... just as that likely 3.2% C.O.L.A. is announced.
This is called a political dilemma.
Of course, no one is mentioning the real earnings report, which I will delve into next.
Sunday, August 27, 2023
A look at my electricity bills over time
I do odd things, one of which is monitoring my electric bills.
Thursday, August 10, 2023
CPI Latest DATA results, August 10, 2023
The BLS report was released this morning and it was at consensus estimates. (historical releases)
The rates on the graph, averaged 3.5% during that 75 year period. The past ten years averaged 2.7%, and the 10 year pre-covid rate was 1.7%. The 21st century average is 2.5%. Pick your normal.The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.
Wednesday, July 12, 2023
CPI Latest DATA results, July 12, 2023
The BLS report was released this morning and it was a shade below consensus estimates. (historical releases)
The consensus: 0.2% increase in CPI (monthly); 0.3% increase in core CPI (monthly); 3.0% Y-Y CPI; and core 5.0% Y-Y. The result: 0.2% CPI (monthly); 0.2% core (monthly); Y-Y CPI at 3.0%; and core at 4.8% Y-Y. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.2 percent the previous month. The index for food at home was unchanged over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June. The energy index rose 0.6 percent in June as the major energy component indexes were mixed.
A lot was made about the year over year dropping for 12 consecutive months. It has, but that party is coming to an end, as July is set to pop up by +0.34% to +3.4% annual, and core up +0.4%, to +4.8% annual.
For some reason, the idea that 3.0% annual is normal!
Review of March 2024 data, 1Q GDP, PCE and personal income
The monthly summary is not so wonderful, incomparison... Inside all that pink is some troubling food related issues. Even though energy is s...
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Today's EIA.gov report . Crude stocks dropped a whopping -5.0M barrels, from last week, and pulled it down -2.6% from the 5 year seaso...
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This week's full report . Upward movement in consumption continues... Pump prices are beginning to drift upward... Refinery levels con...
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The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report . ( historical releases ) The Producer Price Index for final demand rose...