BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - December 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings. 

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.25 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.99, up 43¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.87. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.45. Up 4¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

[While I will continue to track the real earning report for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of real earnings going forward]

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

The 2.749% is above last month's 2.598% is back above the 2.62% of March, 2021, and still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.  

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI stayed steady at 2.9% Y/Y, but rose +0.3% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

The current report card...

My concern going forward, is that several elements of the CPI are at seasonal norms, as in likely to head upward. The various forecasts, seem to agree.

[While I will continue to track the CPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of CPI going forward]

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - November 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted (last month was revised downward)...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.56, up 47¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.85. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.41. Down 46¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - November 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.

The 2.598% is still below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.9% Y/Y, and rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The optimism of returning to the good old days on inflation... is waning for me. Especially given the forecast for November, and energy prices will start to move upward, as is normal on a seasonal basis.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 10th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.29, down 40¢ from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.84. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.56. Up 42¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month. 

The 2.44% is below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.8% Y/Y, but rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The COLA is 2.5%, for 2025.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - September 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.21 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.47, up from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.83. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.36. Up 74¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - September 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase. The food index increased 0.1 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for food at home was unchanged. The energy index fell 0.8 percent over the month, after being unchanged the preceding month.

The 2.53% is finally below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.7% Y/Y, but rose +0.1% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

So the likelihood of 2.5% is very real, with an outside potential for 2.4%. That 2.6% from last month's projection is very, very... not likely.

We'll see next month.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - August 13th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent over the month, and the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. 

It was a bit below the expectations of 3.0% on the annual, and the 0.2% was seasonally adjusted up from the actual 0.116%. So not so bad, and in fact... fairly decent.

For the record: February 2021, 1.7%; March 2021, 2.6%. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y, but slid -0.2% on the month (I'm happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

That's it for this month's CPI... maybe!

Uhoh!! Edited at 10:30PM, 8-14-2024. changes made to COLA projections, based on +0.1%~+0.2% August projection and September at -0.1%~+0.1%. The likelihood of 2.5% COLA is now very likely. imho.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - August 13th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.19 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $382.54, down from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.80. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 330.40. Down 50¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - July 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.18 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. 

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $383.49.

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.79.

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 329.92.

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - July 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent. [emphasis added]

A lot of chatter about this being the first negative in 4 years and means rate cuts are an almost certainty. 

A bit of reality... From the December 2022 report. 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.

For the record, the FED increased rates 4 times by 25 basis points each , starting on 2-1-2023, 3-22-2023, 5-3-2023, and 7-26-2023.

That is in no way suggesting further rate hikes, but should dampen the enthusiasm, given a couple of key phrases in the CPI release. The drop in gasoline prices have probably hit bottom and could inch up in July. To put it in perspective, that -0.1% adjusted would have been more like +0.1% adjusted. That 0.0% unadjusted, would have been +0.2% unadjusted.

Likely, the month to month for July, will indicate something like +0.2% ~ +0.3%, when kicking in the anticipated increase in food, especially the food away from home.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.1% Y/Y and 0.1% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

My inflation rate is slowing, but following several years of my personal inflation being below the COLA, I am not so happy, with the current outlook.

Don't get me wrong, I would rather the COLA goes lower, as that indicates less inflation. I do, however, need to adjust my spending, or suck it up.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - June 12th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Finally an uptick in real earnings. Depending on when you consider turmoil in the labor market, due to covid, the hourly rate is either 13¢ or 1¢ above that period.

All in all, a good report, though the turmoil between then and now still lingers, imho.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - June 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

More than offsetting a decline in gasoline, the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The index for food increased 0.1 percent in May. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index was unchanged. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, led by a 3.6-percent decrease in the gasoline index. 

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.2% Y/Y and 0.3% on the month...

Taking a look at the current report card...

Yep, can't say I am happy with my own inflation rate edging up, but tis life.

In the way too early COLA projections...

Another way of looking at things, is my personal inflation rate is now moving above the projected COLA increase. That has not happened in several years, so I am even less happy.