BLS Data Dump. CPI - April 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y and 0.6% on the month...

Taking a look at the report card...

Not real pretty, imho. It should be noted the release partially laid the surge in inflation at the feet of energy. True on a monthly basis, but Y/Y is up 2.1%, compared to the headline of 3.5%. Even food was at 2.2%, so start looking much harder within that CPI ex food and energy number of 3.8%.

Speaking of food...

Hidden in all those numbers and weightings... food away from home ease barely above January, 2021 numbers. That is NOT adjusted for inflation, but in current dollars. I can't help but think the entities making up the food away from home category... is struggling.  

As for Real Earnings.

An increase of 4¢ from February, 2020. It is important to adhere to that timing, as it was before the disruption of the workforce, cue to covid.

The overall report does show some stagnation for wage growth. Hard to make anything uplifting from the data. 

Sorry!

 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - March 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases) 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 2.3 percent over the month, as all of its component indexes increased. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. The food away from home index rose 0.1 percent over the month.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The February number continues the 2023 1st quarter upward swing.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, albeit not as high as the CPI-U.

That is 2.5% annual, with another sharp 0.4% increase for February. The reason last month was the medical category, but is more evenly spread for this month. My worse fear being that my personal rate is edging up towards the CPI-U rate, which seems mired in a narrow range.

The R-CPI-E did ease from last month's annual of 3.5% to this month's annual of 3.4%. The month to month was still at +0.6%, but is more of a rounding issue. Last month was +0.635% and this month at +0.554%.

Across the board resulted in this picture...

As for Real Earnings.

Not such a good report, as indicated by this graph...

While the downward spike of 3¢ per hour might not seem large, it follows downward revisions in two previous months. Revisions are a normal part of the process, but a troubling trend is frequency of downward revisions in previous month's data. This tends to enhance the belief of manipulation in an election year.

This follows the pattern of jobs, GDP, etc. Not a real confidence builder, imo.

 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - February 13, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The January number reverses the 2023 fall downward trend and achieves an all time high.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, with a decent jump last month.

That is 2.3% annual, with a sharp 0.6% increase for January. The reason mainly being under the medical category and the fact it takes up much more weight, than the BLS weighting does. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue, but after all the "medical" adjustment to the CPI now finished... look out! 

As a side note the R-CPI-E was up 0.6% for the month and 3.5% annual. (R-CPI-E= Research consumer price index for Americans age 62 years of age and older).

Also, the gasoline index is now popping, after actually falling in January. Again... look out!!

As for Real Earnings.

Weekly wages seem to be slowing for some reason, which is reflected across the board, to the working stiffs.

Not a really bad report, but be on the outlook for any worrying trends to develop, imho.

Still, the overall seems to be easing off, even if a hiccup here and there. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - January 11, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

Not sure what the hoopla is about, regarding coming in hotter than expected. Factoring the rounding, it was just a few basis points above my expectations.

The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 0.4 percent over the month as increases in the electricity index and the gasoline index more than offset a decrease in the natural gas index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in December, as it did in November. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent. 

I highlighted a portion of that statements, as it is weird as heck. Gasoline in the November report was 297.598 and December gave a 280.289. Granted that is "unadjusted", but seriously... where did the increase in gasoline index come from? Nationally, the prices are down from last month, about 18¢ and down about 9¢ from December of 2022. Yet, somehow the "seasonally adjusted" edged up enough to offset something else.

Even by the BLS numbers from December, 2022... gasoline fell -1.5% (unadjusted)  on the month and was -9.4% on the seasonal adjustments. December, 2023... saw gasoline fall -1.9% on the unadjusted monthly, ... but rose +0.2 of the seasonal adjustments.  

In any case, the top number has decreased for 3 consecutive months. Now that would be seasonal, as November and December of 2022... saw decreases. It reversed in the January 2023 report.

My own personal CPI looks like this...

That is a +2.2% increase annually, and +0.1% for the month.

As for Real Earnings.

Remember when covid disrupted everything and massive shutdowns, layoffs, etc. Comparing that $380.95 real weekly earning, compared to February, 2020's $378.92. 

It is better than nothing!

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 12, 2023

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

I think the numbers were somewhat in line with everyone's expectations.

I do find the food portion of the darn thing a bit intriguing.

While the overall index has increased 17.4% since January, 2021, the food at home index has jumped 20.3%

Oddly, when adjusting the index to "average" household spending the food at home has jumped 29.6%, in current dollars.

What really catches the eye, is the -8.5% drop in current dollars for food away from home. This would be cafeterias, restaurants, and other places "away" from home.

This type of comparison with weightings against the index, further indicates a drop in current dollar spending for food in all categories... compared to rate of inflation.

The CPI index has an increase in prices of 20%, yet current dollar spending is 11.6%. The food away from home industry is not keeping up, as I suspect more meals are prepared at home... or people are cutting back on eating. [NOT]

As for Real Earnings.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Here is a graph...

Tis a nickel better than February, 2020. Merry Christmas!

 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 12, 2023

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

I had readings of 3.6%~3.9%, so the 3.7% was within that range.

The past 12 months...

My own CPI...

The C.O.L.A. was announced at 3.2%.

The results, compared to average S.S. income and various CPI methods. Once the average monthly S.S. is adjusted for Medicare Part B, the result is 2.9%.

Then compare the average 3 month of each CPI method, yields the headline CPI of 3.5%; Chained CPI at 3.6%; R-CPI-E at 4.1%; the end result of S.S. monthly minus projected Medicare part B... stands in sharp contrast to actual inflationary pressures.

'Nuff said!

This concludes my monthly publication of CPI.

 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 12, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.2 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2022 to September 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.1-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

I added emphasis to the decrease.

Graph time...

I suppose the good news... the Real Hourly is still +2¢ above pre covid, and down -2¢ from last month.

Real Weekly is +$2.08 above pre-covid, but down -71¢ from last month, AND... down -$1.10 from July.

The working stiffs are 14¢ above pre-covid on an hourly basis, yet down -1¢ from previous month, as well as down -7¢ from July.

The working stiffs are $5.43 above pre-covid on a weekly basis, yet down -59¢ from last month, and down -$2.45 from July.

The bad news, is all areas had a setback in inflation adjusted earnings in September. Let's hope that does not continue.

This closes out my publication of this data, although I will continue tracking. I'll just keep my thoughts to myself... unless I can't help myself.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - September 13, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2022 to August 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.3-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

The report was a bit of setback in earnings, as the hourly rate fell -5¢. It is up +2¢ somce February 2020.

Weekly earnings decline -38¢ from last month, although up +95¢ from February 2020.

The above charts include all categories of workers.

Now for the production and non supervisory...

This category saw a drop of -6¢ per hour, although still +15¢ above February 2020.

Weekly is a bit different...

2 consecutive months of decline, although not a trend at this point. Down -89¢ on the month, although still +$6.02 above February, 2020.

I do remember last month being hailed as proof of something. I forget what it was, but this month is also proof of something. Can't wait to hear the spin on this... if it even crops up in the news cycle.

That gasoline index, cited in August as being below last August... is true. Per AAA, the average for August 2022 was $3.97 and this year at $3.84. BUT, September of 2022 averaged $3.73 and thus far this month is $3.82 and current trading indicate today's national average of $3.85... is heading north of $4 very soon. 

I guess reviewing today's crude report is next on the agenda.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - September 13, 2023

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month. The energy index rose 5.6 percent in August as all the major energy component indexes increased. The food index increased 0.2 percent in August, as it did in July. The index for food at home increased 0.2 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in August. 

Depending on which consensus forecast you use, this was either slightly above or slighty below.

It was slightly below my chosen group. I had mentioned +0.8% increase, versus +0.6% actual. Both the month to month and annual were slightly below my chosen group's forecast. +3.8% versus +3.7%.

The actual readings.

Then there is my personal results, which is important to me. +0.4% M/M and +1.8% Annual.

Now for the C.O.L.A projections...

I can nearly predict the C.O.L.A will be +3.2%. This is based on the expecation the minimum September number would be 301.829 (+0.09%) and the maximum being 302.704 (+0.038%). Given current forecasts, the September numbers should be in this range. 

Considering that the C.O.L.A is nearly set at 3.2%, it is time to look at impact on old folks, such as myself. While mine edged up this month, the R-CPI-E, is well above the 3.2% C.O.L.A. at 4.2%. R-CPI-E stands for Research CPI Experimental, not the retired cpi elderly, that some people think. However, it was experimental research targeting 62 year olds and over. 

For years the Medicare B standard rates were announced in November. Last year the Biden Adminstration had it announced almost simultaneously with the C.O.L.A. While the Biden White House ballyhooed the 8.7% C.O.L.A. as an achievement, then quickly caught flak for taking credit for inflation, they were able to rejoice in the Medicare B standard rates falling. 

With the likelihood of Medicare B standard rates being raised... Gee, I wonder when that announcement will come?

With the headline CPI being 3.2% in July, and currently 3.7% for August, the September forecast of 3.6% will come out... just as that likely 3.2% C.O.L.A. is announced.

This is called a political dilemma.

Of course, no one is mentioning the real earnings report, which I will delve into next.

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... August 10, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4  percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings were essentially unchanged over the month due to the change in real  average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek. 

The following graphs include data back to pre-covid. This is essential information, as Covid sent many home from the workplace, and many did not have the option of "zoom" etc. The result being many lower income wage earners got left out of the data, which distorted the information results.

As employment is near pre covid numbers, the past "few" months, compared to February, 2022, becomes a more accurate picture, imho. Additionally, these numbers are inflation adjusted, so a real increase has taken place. Not much, but that has been the story for quite a number of years.

The rundown...

While earnings have improved and employment appears solid, it does not mean storm clouds aren't gathering. Whether the glass is half full or half empty... TBD.

CPI Latest DATA results, August 10, 2023

The BLS report was released this morning and it was at consensus estimates. (historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.

The rates on the graph, averaged 3.5% during that 75 year period. The past ten years averaged 2.7%, and the 10 year pre-covid rate was 1.7%. The 21st century average is 2.5%. Pick your normal.

While last month's 3.0% and this month's 3.2% are below the 75 year average, not exactly better than either of the 10 year marks, nor the 21st century average.

The past 28 months have seen food at home risen 20.4% (8.74% annualized), and the overall CPI up... 16.9% (7.24% annualized).

That is something very fresh in the minds of many Americans.

In the absolutely to early to project something, but I can't help myself category... the current outlook for C.O.L.A.

So far this month...

Time for some more graphs...

It should be noted, the July, 22 ~ December, 22 period was nearly flat. Since then, the rate of inflation has had an upward trajectory.

My personal CPI rate is better than expected. but still not pleasing to me. 

There seems to be some euphoria over today's report, which seems to be based on inflation matching consensus expectations, although a bit higher than next month.

Which brings me to expectations for the current month. Nearly everything I've read indicates a higher print for next month. I haven't read any consensus expectations, but the range is much higher. With energy prices jumping upward, as well as food prices... core will need to slow down to bring the August numbers within range of July, imho.

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... July 12, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.5 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, from June 2022 to June 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.6-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Generally speaking, real income growth has about matched pre-Covid, per the graphs below.

But first, as usual, a few notes about the graphs and underlying data, especially #2 and #3, which seem to fall into the political rhetoric arena....

1. These hourly and weekly figures are in 1982~1984 dollars, so that inflationary impact can be easily seen. The $11.03 per hour in the first graph would be $33.34 per hour in today's dollars. 
2. Much is made about the decrease in hourly wages, but some easy explanation... We can all remember when covid shut everything down, and people were sent home. Some kept working at their jobsite or from home. 
3. Many others went home without a job. A lot of those were lower wage employees, which skewed the hourly and weekly rates upward, until those employees slowly returned to work.
4. I have January, 2020 (pre-covid) on each graph, so that comparisons can be made to current. Also, the unemployment rate then and now are very similar. 

A 3¢ an hour gain since pre-covid. Considering "real" earnings is adjusted for inflation, this can be considered a positive.

Real weekly earnings finally pulled ahead of pre-covid levels. This is good news and hopefully continues.

Then there is what I refer to as the average person categories...

The hourly rate is 2% above pre-covid.

This category is 2.2% above pre-covid. This is the best news of the day and doesn't seem to get any attention. 

Oh well... on to today's energy reports. 

CPI Latest DATA results, July 12, 2023

The BLS report was released this morning and it was a shade below consensus estimates. (historical releases)

The consensus: 0.2% increase in CPI (monthly); 0.3% increase in core CPI (monthly); 3.0% Y-Y CPI; and core 5.0% Y-Y. The result: 0.2% CPI (monthly); 0.2% core (monthly); Y-Y CPI at 3.0%; and core at 4.8% Y-Y. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.2 percent the previous month. The index for food at home was unchanged over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent in June. The energy index rose 0.6 percent in June as the major energy component indexes were mixed.

A lot was made about the year over year dropping for 12 consecutive months. It has, but that party is coming to an end, as July is set to pop up by +0.34% to +3.4% annual, and core up +0.4%, to +4.8% annual.

For some reason, the idea that 3.0% annual is normal!

Since January 1948~ January 2021, the average has been 3.5%, so it could be said 3.0% is normal. However, the 21st century up to January 2021... saw an average of 2.1%. So which "normal" is it?

While the report seems to be "good', let's not forget the index has risen 16.6% in 27 months and the cost of food at home has risen 19.9% during the same period.

The notion that consumers are under less stress due to this report is baffling. It is still an increase in most everything... except gasoline and energy et al. 

In the absolutely to early to project something category... the current outlook for C.O.L.A.

So far this month...

Time for more graphs... past 12 month CPI readings.

June, 2022 was the peak of annual inflation at 9.1%. Inflation for the following 6 months was 0.2% or 0.4% annualized. The major driver in those numbers were the dropff in energy prices. The following 6 months saw prices increase 2.8% or 5.6% annualized, as energy prices stabilized.  

To repeat the 2.97% annual inflation for next month would require a flat month to month CPI. That would require an extraordinary drop off from current expectations. Energy looks to be stable, so where would such a dropoff take place?

And finally... My CPI over the past 12 months.

Next up is the "Real Earnings Report".