Natural Gas Inventory Report, June 30, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

As always... the Pacific Region...

Prices increased in all West Coast markets this report week. At PG&E Citygate in Northern California, the price rose 96 cents from $3.02/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.98/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 3 cents from $4.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.83/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border rose 59 cents from $2.02/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.61/MMBtu yesterday.

Select inventories of EU and UK... 

Overall, very good, with EU wide numbers at 78.86% full.

A brief look at the 12 month highs for futures... TTF (EU) and UKG (UK).

A slight uptick for the 12 month, but still below the 5-5 picture. 

Current week ending prices...

Current futures (August v 12 month high)

Basically, the current futures are about where they were 2 years ago, when the EU was worried about Russia messing with natural gas deliveries and woefully inadequate natural gas stocks. 

Has the storm been weathered? 

Natural Gas Inventory Report, June 23, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

As always... the focus is on the Pacific Region...

Along the West Coast, prices increased this week, in line with the Henry Hub, even as consumption in California declined slightly week over week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 16 cents, up from $2.86/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.02/MMBtu yesterday, while in Southern California, the price at SoCal Citygate increased more than any other major hub this week, rising $1.67 from $3.13/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.80/MMBtu yesterday.

Select inventories of EU and UK... 

Virtually all areas continue to increase NG in storage. Despite the hysteria, NG futures continue to ease, both nearby and 12 month... on the EU and UK market, with the Henry Hub, up slightly.

A brief look at the 12 month highs for futures... TTF (EU) and UKG (UK).

Recently, I have noticed some articles stating how the EU/UK natgas prices are surging and giving many reasons. Even one that was AI generated. 

Yet these hysterical articles don't seem to hold up for very long.

Surging... compared to what?

Natural Gas Inventory Report, June 16, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on yesterday.

Once again, let me focus on the Pacific Region...

Along the West Coast, prices decreased this week, but remain relatively high, particularly in California. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 86 cents, down from $3.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.86/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 16 cents from $3.29/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.13/MMBtu yesterday. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in California decreased by 7% (0.1 Bcf/d) week over week, as temperatures were relatively mild. In the Sacramento Area, temperatures averaged 68°F this week, leading to 12 fewer CDDs than last week, while in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, temperatures averaged 65°F this week, leading to 1 fewer HDD and 5 fewer CDDs than last week.

Select inventories of EU and UK...

Inventories continue to improve... over historic highs for this time of year.

NatGas Price chart...

The sky is falling...

The past 2 weeks have seen sudden spikes in EU and UK futures. This is being attributed to a host of things that have been known to take place. 

• The Dutch are shutting down the largest gas field in Europe.
• Norway is doing maintenance on their equipment.

Nevermind where the price was just 6 weeks ago. It reminds me of the gold bug syndrome. Time to talk of gloom and doom, to unload those holdings.

Until next week. 

Natural Gas Inventory Report, June 09, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on yesterday.

And now a look at regional, specifically Pacific.

Prices in West Coast markets remain the highest of all major pricing hubs this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 65 cents, up from $3.07/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.72/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $1.11 from $2.18/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.29/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border rose 47 cents from $1.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.17/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the Western region increased by 13%, or 0.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), which was led by a 38% (1.0 Bcf/d) increase in consumption in the electric power sector, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Select inventories of EU and UK...

Prices rose sharply on the EU and UK markets this past week. Nearby by months by 8% with max 12 month at 2.5%.

I have no real explanation, as I never bothered to research reasons. Although it is not so unusual for summer months, for there to be a spike. Afterall... hot weather is here.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, June 02, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Friday.

The national inventory stock remains above 5 year average and is keeping pace with seasonal movements. As usual, the Pacific region is lagging, but showing significant gains each week.

Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, May 24, to Wednesday, May 31), except for prices in the Northeast. Price changes at major pricing hubs this report week ranged from a decrease of 29 cents/MMBtu at the Waha Hub in western Texas to an increase of $3.30/MMBtu at the Algonquin Citygate in the Northeast.

Select inventories of EU and UK...

Prices continue to fall on the UK and EU markets. The UK spread of 12 month futures is annually at £1,441.34 ~ £2,174.50, with OFGEM setting the cap at £2,074. That cap is consistent with NatGas prices of £94.51 per Therm or $11.76 per MMbtu. November futures rise above the cap.

The lowering of the (annual) energy cap from £2,500 to £2,074 is certainly a great relief, however it was only 2 years ago, it was something like £1,200 annually for the average household. The monthly energy charges have fallen substantially and is reflected in the U.K. CPI. 

gas provided a downward contribution of 0.75 percentage points to the monthly change in CPIH

electricity provided a downward contribution of 0.67 percentage points to the monthly change in CPIH.

 

Energy costs have abated, but elsewhere is very troubling, in my humble opinion.  

Natural Gas Inventory Report, May 27, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.

Nationally, inventories are well above the 5 year average, although still well below in the Pacific region. substantial gains have taken place over the past few weeks.

Prices in all West Coast markets declined yesterday from last Wednesday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 95 cents, down from $4.13/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.18/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 33 cents from $2.58/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.25/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border fell 21 cents from $1.83/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.62/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the Western region decreased by 1% (0.1 Bcf/d), which was led by a 4% (0.1 Bcf/d) decrease in consumption in the electric power sector. In Northern California, PG&E’s total gas in storage was 12.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of May 23, up from 5.8 Bcf on May 1.

Select inventories of EU and UK...

Prices continue to fall on the UK and EU markets. The UK spread of futures is annually at £1,453.60 ~ £2,191.06, with OFGEM setting the cap at £2,074. That cap is consistent with NatGas prices through October, with an added 3.7% cushion.  

Natural Gas Inventory Report, May 19, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.

Nationally, inventories are well above the 5 year average, although still well below in the Pacific region. substantial gains have taken place over the past few weeks, having increased 27% in the past two weeks.

Pricing in the Pacific region did increase, but still remains within reach of other regions... which continue to be on the low side.

EU and UK continue to fare well, regarding inventories and remain well above both last year and seasonal 5 year averages.

While pricing in Europe has fallen, it continues to be extremely high, compared to pre-covid and pre-invasion.

An example would be the U.K., where the price range is currently £1,509~£2,264. I compare that to the extreme predictions of £3,600~£5,400 from about 21 months ago, and the price cap rollout of £2,500.

The good news is the £2,500 cap will stay into June. I would think the cap could be lowered, based on current market pricing, but that is just my silly opinion. It's not like there is a large storage of higher priced natgas to work through, for th UK.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, May 12, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.

As usual the above graph does not capture the whole story by region. The west coast is still lagging, but beginning to gain ground. That should continue as west coast nat/gas pricing has fallen below the Henry Hub, which is now one of the highest in the U.S., which is at lows not seen since 2020.

European and United Kingdom storage continues to gain and remain at seasonally elevated levels.

The pricing for UK and TTF nat/gas, continues above "normal".

So far... so good!!

West Coast Natural Gas Inventories improving, but still below seasonal norms.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.

Quick check of pricing...

For those interested in a few EU countries and the UK, these are the latest stats...

Clearly the UK seems to have a need for more storage, but the UK does get considerable volumes from their own gas fields, as well as having LNG infrastructure. 

Overall, the EU currently is sitting with 61.04% of capacity. This is significantly above of last year and even the 5 year average.

West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal, but showing signs of life.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

But...

Slight improvement, with West Coast still lagging year ago, and 5 year. Mountain appears out of the woods, with everyone else showing hefty inventories for time of year. 

For Europe, inventories are well above both last year (double) and near top of 5 year average.

I shall divurge for a moment. Crude oil prices are in the range of October, 2021... or pre invasion, sanctions, etc. Yet global consumption is rather steady. Part of this was reducing SPR by various countries, but I suspect that significant amounts of "sanctioned" crude is still hitting the market. Then there is OPEC+, theoretically reducing output. So... 

I suspect the countries doing the sanctioning are ignoring these stream adjustments, as it benefits these countries, while talking a hard line. Virtue signaling has come to the sanctions regime, and was likely there... from the start.

On to the natgas pricing...

First up the USA. Prices have remained rather stable at the Henry Hub for nearly 3 months, with the average about $2.15MMBtu. This is more "normal" for pre Ukraine invasion pricing. The replenishment cost of the inventory is down, so the consumers should continue to see some easing.

For Europe the current pricing is still double "normal". It seems to have settled into a narrow band in the past 6 weeks. With the inventories heavy with very high priced natgas, the outlook for consumer relief is much farther down the road. 

Can Europe and the U.K. weather another winter? 

West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal, but showing a slight rise.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

As usual, the overall indicates above seasonal 5 year average. Some areas are in much better shape than others. 

In the West, prices generally declined this week, except for the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California, which rose 38 cents from $5.79/MMBtu last Wednesday to $6.17/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 33 cents from $7.99/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.66/MMBtu yesterday. In the Pacific Northwest, the price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border fell $1.17 from $4.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.63/MMBtu yesterday. Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) began planned maintenance on Line 5000 on Monday, April 17, which will curtail 630 million cubic feet per day of natural gas flows through April 28.

Still about triple the price of Henry Hub.

Elsewhere...

According to news reports, the UK storage is sufficient to last through the summer. Not sure what that even means, as future's prices seem to indicate a rise. In any case, the so called cap currently in place of £2,500 is likely to show little easing, in my humble opinion.

German inventories are holding steady at 64%. It should be noted the winter was mild, plus consumption was reduced... largely by industry, according to Der Spiegel. Can that extend through another year? If productivity was not impacted... were these industries wasteful? 

West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The graph indicates at the upper end of the 5 year, a deeper dive results in something like this...

Mountain and especially the West Coast is way below normal, which is also reflected in the pricing of that region, compared to others.

Although falling week over week, prices in West Coast markets remain elevated and are currently the highest in the United States. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 66 cents from $8.65/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.99/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell $1.52, down from $7.31/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.79/MMBtu yesterday.

Generally speaking, about triple the rest of the nation. Some specific issues were colder than normal weather, this past winter, as well as numerous pipeline problems. 

Elsewhere...

TTF and UKG prices continue to ease down across the board. Henry Hub is still drifting lower into prices not seen in over 30 months. As a consumer, I consider that a good thing... if it gets passed on.

Haven't checked UK storage, but Germany is holding steady at 64%, which is more than double this time last year and near 50% higher than the 2016~2020 average for same period. 

It is hard to imagine a repeat of last year's gyrations and LNG shipments don't seem to be affecting Henry Hub. That is not to infer European energy costs are substantially waning. The consumer will likely continue to feel the shock for quite some time. Sorry!

Germany at 64% storage has to recoup the cost of that storage, which was really quite high... and continues to be quite high.