PPI APR. 2024 release March 2024 Data

The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent.

Now for a graph and chart...

As stated, the 2.1% is the highest final demand number since April 2023. There seems to be some quibbling over that number, as related to gasoline prices. I should point out the "preliminary" tag on many items. So we can expect some more adjustments in those months.

I have read where the final demand would have been 2.4%, had the gasoline been correctly attributed. I don't think the annual would have seen that. However, the monthly figure is indeed laughable, and should have been near last month's figure.. 

The final demand is creeping up, which is troubling. Even more troubling is the final demand for food, which popped a healthy +0.8% on the month, which follows +1.1% for the previous month. Chew on that for awhile.

 

PPI Mar. 2024 release February 2024 Data

The BLS has released the February, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023.

In February, nearly two-thirds of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand goods, which advanced 1.2 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.6 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

Current graph with revisions...

Then there is this chart, which briefly compares the category to previous month's annual rate.

So the report was deemed as troubling, as it will be passed on to the consumer. No doubt inflation is not down to the level sought, but not a rapid acceleration. More of tepid acceleration in my opinion.

PPI Feb. 2024 release January 2024 Data

The BLS has released the January, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.8 percent in July 2023. In January, most of the advance is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which climbed 0.8 percent. The index for final demand trade services moved up 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4 percent. 

Product detail: A 2.2-percent increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased 1.0 percent. The indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing and for engineering services also moved lower. (See table 2.)

I emphasized a specfic portion. after much jockeying with revisions of numbers in the medical category over the past year... those have come to and end. So after all these revision helped tamp down inflation numbers, those days are over.

The headlines have focused on how the PPI report came in hotter than expected. I wonder if the expectations are real or some hope of immediate relief in those interest rates. It is coming, just not tomorrow. 

Producer Price Index January release December 2023 Data

The BLS has released the December Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved down 0.1 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.0 percent in 2023 after increasing 6.4 percent in 2022.

If the PPI is really a forerunner of consumer inflation, then CPI should continue to ease, as PPI has nearing same rate as CPI in the periods outlined below.

I would hope the drops in food and energy will continue, or at least stabilize. I suspect energy will creep up in the coming months, as this is a seasonal lull, according to previous December reports. Those same reports suggest a seasonal lull for foods.

I guess it is important to find the good news and celebrate... however fleeting it might be.

Producer Price Index December release November 2023 Data

The BLS has released the November Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and rose 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

In November, the indexes for both final demand goods and for final demand services were unchanged. 

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods was unchanged in November after dropping 1.4 percent in October. In November, price increases of 0.6 percent for final demand foods and 0.2 percent for final demand goods less foods and energy offset a 1.2-percent decrease in the index for final demand energy.

Let's revisit that paragraph. What did the -1.2% decrease in the index for final demand energy... offset?

Within final demand goods in November, prices for chicken eggs jumped 58.8 percent. The indexes for fresh fruits and melons, utility natural gas, electric power, and carbon steel scrap also moved higher. In contrast, prices for gasoline fell 4.1 percent.

So gasoline (-4.1%), which is typically moving into seasonal lows, is the reason for that -1.2% decrease, which offsets a bunch of rises in food (+0.6%) and other energy components. 

Not to nitpick, but if gasoline is having that impact, and is moving into seasonal lows, which might continue through the December release... could reverse beginning after Christmas, just like last year.

For those of us that like to eat food, that annualized 7.2% increase in food is going to weigh on the budget of many of us, unless we decide to eat less and lose "weight".

Producer Price Index October release with September 2023 Data

The BLS has released the September Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest increase since moving up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April. 

Leading the increase in the final demand index in September, prices for final demand goods rose 0.9 percent. The index for final demand services advanced 0.3 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in September, the fourth consecutive advance. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

As is often the case... there were revisions to previous month's data, so don't be surprised if this month's data is revised next month. The size of July's data was a bit surprising however. When that data came out, it was considered above expectations at +0.3%. A couple of month's later, it was revised to +0.6%, without any discussion.

In any case, I will continue to track, but this should wrap up publishing my thoughts.

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-29-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report. 

At long last, all regions are above both last year and 5 year average. Hooray!

EIA.GOV via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Time to wrap up the publishing of this weekly natural gas summary...

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-22-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is very near the 5 year average.

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The United Kingdom continues to slide in percent of storage filled. It should be noted that UK does have access to natural gas supplies and infrastructure for LNG. However, the flip side is more abrupt changes in pricing.

Which is most noticeable in the forward futures, as shown on this chart.

The US market continues to be somewhat stable. 

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-15-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is nearing the 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The overall EU pct. slipped since last week, but the volume in storage increased, as capacity increased.

While the EU as a whole, has approximately 100 days of supply, it should be noted that days supply varies greatly within the individual countries. 

Prices edged up in the EU and UK.

U.S. Henry Hub finished the week down -3¢.

Both TTF (Dutch) and UKG remain approximately double historical norms. Henry Hub is running about 2/3 of those norms. 

Producer Price Index September release with August 2023 Data

The BLS has released the July Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, after rising 0.4 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (See table A.) The August advance is the largest increase in final demand prices since moving up 0.9 percent in June 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

In August, 80 percent of the rise in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.0-percent jump in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services advanced 0.2 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in August, the same as in July. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.0 percent, the largest advance since moving up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

So, the story is about gasoline prices creating most of the PPI. This might be true, but the current forecast is up and not down for that commodity.

Everything is screaming some future relief, except for what drove the August PPI higher. September is shaping up as a repeat of August, imho.

Not the most scientific metric, but there is more pink than last month. Not saying inflation is about to accelerate, but not so sure that crude oil will taper off its current rise. And we should remember that yesterday's CPI report mentioned the impact of gasoline, but also indicated that energy prices were down compared to one year ago... current at 294.328, year ago at 305.372. Gasoline current... 336.979, year ago at 348.593.

So, if last month's PPI was impacted by energy and thereby distorting the number, then energy being cheaper this year than last... would indicate the YoY 1.6% is also distorted. In fact the release indicates the PPI excluding energy was 2.0%. 

That is not a bad number, imho. Things are indeed looking up... except for pump prices, which are also looking up, but not in a good way.

Natural Gas Summary... Week Ending 9-08-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region continues to be slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average, although still improving.

The South Central Region continued the slide against year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

Data per AGIS

The UK continues to reduce inventory, while Austria and Belgium slipped from last report.

Overall, NatGas prices slipped compared to last week.

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, September 01, 2023

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

While up in most areas of Europe, Austria -.01%, Czech Republic -.02%, and the UK down -1.63%.

Pricing finds the U.S. back to normal, with the EU and the UK still elevated, as will likely continue for quite a period of time.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 31, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region is now slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average.

The South Central Region slipped below one year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Nothing dramatic taking place, so steady as she goes, would be the best description, imho.

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, August 25, 2023

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The storage continues to increase, and has surpassed same period of 2020.

Natural Gas prices moderated in both nearby and futures pricing, as the potential for a strike by Australian Unions at one LNG facility seemed to have abated. At least until another strike was threatened, which sent prices upward again... today.

While current prices in the EU and UK are below pricing of 2 years ago, they are still elevated compared to 2019 and 2020. Despite LNG exports, U.S. prices remain at 2019 and 2020 levels.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 24, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region continued to gain inventory, although still below one year ago and 5 year average.

The South Central region shed inventory over the week, yet remains well above year ago and 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Generally speaking, natural gas prices are significantly below one year ago levels, and more in line with pre-covid levels. 

Current price levels suggest consumer inflation in natgas as well as pass through products (electricity) will continue to moderate. These products represent about 3.6% of the average consumer basket.

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, August 18, 2023

 Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

Much is being made of the 90% achievement, 3 months early. Typically this would represent about 3 months of supply, if all sources were cut off. That will not happen, but winter expectations and potential Australian LNG strike has provided apprehension in the markets. That potential for less supply has sent the bidding upward.

Overall, the price of TTF NatGas is still below levels of 2 years ago -(13.2%). That was before the pipeline chicanery, blackmail, etc. 

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 18, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year averages, although significant gains from last week.

Price changes in California were mixed this week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 7 cents, down from $5.71/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.64/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $2.85 from $4.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.80/MMBtu yesterday. El Paso Natural Gas Company reported maintenance on the North Mainline near Leupp, Arizona, beginning on Monday August 14. In addition, ongoing maintenance is occurring at the SoCalGas pipeline system. Prices in the West remain the highest in the country as above-average temperatures keep demand for cooling high and as the Pacific region remains the only region in the United States with below-average storage levels.

 

Henry Hub prices fell from last week, as well as on the futures market.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, August 11, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year levels, but is slowly gaining.

Prices increased in West Coast markets, still the highest priced markets in the United States, except in Southern California where a large maintenance event concluded. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border rose 37 cents from $3.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.09/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 54 cents, up from $5.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.71/MMBtu yesterday. 

 Select EU and UK storage...

Inventories continue to improve across the EU and UK. (100% inventory capacity is approximately a 90 day supply.)

Dutch and UK futures, surged 6% and 7% respectively over last week. February, 2024 futures, surged nearly 22% from last week.

Henry Hub futures surged 7% almost across the board.

The upward pressure stems from labor action in Australia, increased LNG demand in Asia, as well as a Norwegian pipeline tapering down to closure in early fall. The labor action had been somewhat anticipated, and certainly the latter two... were on tap. Or as Rumsfeld might have said... the labor action was a known unknown, and the latter were known knowns. 

So something else might be shaking the market.