1-17-2025 Week In Review

Laugh of the week

Watching Sky News and a lady proclaimed that social media sites should be held to the same strict standards as newspaper publishers and television news sites. Clearly she meant the UK, but some of the craziest and insane misinformation has come to me via Sky News and UK newspapers. 

Admittedly, the UK media is not as off the rails as American Media.

Greenland, what if...

If Greenland were to be independent, would it still be part of NATO? If not, why would we think they would align with the USA. China and/or Russia would run the bids up, imo. A strategic part of the world could be up for grabs.

Don't just laugh off the "Greenland" rhetoric, imho.

Climate Change

Accepting that the climate is definitely changing, why is all the focus all on the halt of bad emissions? If we were to suddenly halt these bad emissions, things will not return to normal the next day. In fact it would take many decades, if not hundreds of years. 

During that period of time, the ice caps will continue to melt, the oceans will continue to rise and the storm patterns will persist. The state of Florida will likely be under water, much of New York City will be under water. So why aren't preparations being made NOW... for such events?

Which brings me to...

LA Fires

There has always been wild fires in California, yet climate change is now considered the root cause. Yet nothing is being done to prepare for what should be considered a certainty. 

Blaming "climate change" is much easier than doing something, imho. 

Cease Fire

I am typing this on Thursday, 1-16-2025. Call me skeptical, but this seems like a peace deal for Biden, that will fall apart immediately and the Democrats will attempt to blame it on Trump. It theoretically takes place on Sunday, the 19th, so I think shortly after noon on the 20th... things will fall apart. 

Economic reports this week

A lot of pink, which indicates rising numbers, but not above expectations, imo.

Also, the retail sales report clocked in with an inflation adjusted +1.0% over the preceding 12 months. The current inflation adjusted sales is the highest since January, 2023.

Energy

Pump prices will likely rise about a nickel over the next couple of weeks. Which matches the nickel rise over the past week. 

That's it, this is getting boring.

1-10-2025 Week In Review

Weather

Yep, been a fun few days, as we received about 6" of snow, then about 3/4" of ice, then another 3" of snow. I am no longer able to clear the driveway, so hoping nothing in the way of an emergency.

I have no real reason to leave the house, although the long range forecast shows no warming temperatures to thaw that mess. Another 2" predicted for this weekend, below freezing temps through the following weekend, with a possible big snow of 6"+. 

Groceries might be needed.

Politics

You already know the U.S. news, but what about abroad?

U.K. news media is all a-flutter over Musk tweets. This forced the Labour government to respond. Apparently, there was a grooming gang problem back a decade ago, which resulted in several inquiries, which further resulted in recommendations. 

A decade later, after the Musk tweets, it seems the Labour government has decided to begin implementing some of those recommendations. 

Sir Keir Starmer was the head of the Crown Prosecution Services back in the day, and is now Prime Minister. He claims Musk is promoting a right wing attack. Strange that nothing was implemented until Musk got to tweeting. 

So successive U.K. governments did nothing and it is Musk's fault for tweeting about it. Hard to imagine where the issue would be without the tweets. 

A Sky News (UK) reporter, after news of META dropping "fact-checking" and going to community notes... asked the question of what is the future of liberal fact-checking. The irony of such a question.

I watch Sky News on a regular basis and the opinion I have is... The U.K. has much bigger problems than Musk tweeting.

Back to the U.S., and is the media hyperventilating like they did... 8 years ago? It does seem that way to me. 

Energy

Not much to say, although pump prices likely to rise a nickel in the coming week. Same for diesel.

and the rest...

Fires. Plentiful dry vegetation, high winds, and homes built of largely dry timber. Just takes a spark.

Jobs report. Looks really good, but remember all the revisions the past year. I'll take a wait and see.

Zombie companies. These are companies that seemingly were profitable, but largely due to low interest bonds and rates. Those days are gone and we will likely see some corporate profits suffer as these bonds are rolled over.

Trump jail. He's a convicted felon without having to spend time in jail, or on parole, etc. Almost as good as a pardon. Speaking of which... wonder who else is about to get pardoned. 

Greenland. This suddenly got interesting.

Changing direction on blogging

A new year is upon us, and just some thoughts.

I am changing direction, as I will restrict my blog entries on a variety of topics. I still track those areas, but find it a bit time consuming to post. Besides, it seems to have cluttered up the site, with no meaningful outside interest.

Thus returning to my thoughts and opinions. Which could be about anything. 

The presidential election is over, but politics is never over, so there is that.

The economy is something of interest, which includes several items and becomes political.

International events might arise, which are also political in nature. 

Frankly, about everything that happens anymore... becomes political, whether immigration, crime, etc.

I could summarize what transpired in 2024, but you should already know. What none of us know... is what impact it will have on 2025.

We have the debt ceiling, a new congress, a new president, wars cropping up everywhere, and the list goes on and on. 

After the past few years of revisions to various previous month's economic numbers, which resulted in more positive news on date of release... we will likely start to see the truth going forward. I am suggesting the results have not been as positive as the media has proclaimed. 

Energy Prices

Futures indicate that gasoline pump prices ranging from -4.2¢~+4.4¢ over the near term. 

Port Strike

It strongly appears that the ILA v USMX strike will be postponed for 3 1/2 months, as that would be the most beneficial for both sides. 

Tariffs

Has anyone been watching the foreign exchange market? The Yen and Yuan have been weakening against the dollar. So have a host of other currencies. 

Woohoo! The strong dollar fans are overlooking what caused offshoring and will inhibit reshoring. Our trading partners are not converting all those sales in dollars... back to their native currencies. No, they are purchasing Dollarized assets, such as bonds, financials, properties, etc. 

Basically... propping up the dollar. We have not learned a darn thing over the past 40 years, as to why the early 80s inflation was brought down so low, until the great covid shipping snafu. 

That's it for this week.

PPI - Dec. 2024 release with Nov. 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.  

As for the report card, it indicates inflationary pressures currently exist, with upward pressure into the future.

While the forecasts are not screaming rampant inflation, we should consider that we are currently at historical low points of monthly inflation... meaning the rate will pick up in the coming year, without the pending threat of tariffs.

[While I will continue to track the PPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of PPI going forward]

PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

PPI September 2024 release with August 2024 Data

The BLS has released the September 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of August.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.

The report card continues to indicate easing of inflation. 

 

PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.

PPI MAY 2024 release April 2024 Data

The BLS has released the April, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in March and advanced 0.6 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest increase since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

Nearly three-quarters of the April advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 0.6-percent increase in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.4 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4 percent in April after rising 0.2 percent in March. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.1 percent, the largest advance since climbing 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.2% rise on year to year, increased from last month and is the new highest since April, 2023. The rise was tempered by a drop in energy prices, and best of all... food. The latter showing the first decrease in 3 months, after sharp increases. We will wait and see how that is reflected in grocery store prices.

Despite the slight rise year over year, the troubling part is month over month, which reversed last month's pullback. +0.5% v -0.1%.

The where can be found in the detailed report. If the month to month was +0.5%, look for the areas more than that figure, to determine the inflationary pressures.

PPI APR. 2024 release March 2024 Data

The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent.

Now for a graph and chart...

As stated, the 2.1% is the highest final demand number since April 2023. There seems to be some quibbling over that number, as related to gasoline prices. I should point out the "preliminary" tag on many items. So we can expect some more adjustments in those months.

I have read where the final demand would have been 2.4%, had the gasoline been correctly attributed. I don't think the annual would have seen that. However, the monthly figure is indeed laughable, and should have been near last month's figure.. 

The final demand is creeping up, which is troubling. Even more troubling is the final demand for food, which popped a healthy +0.8% on the month, which follows +1.1% for the previous month. Chew on that for awhile.

 

PPI Mar. 2024 release February 2024 Data

The BLS has released the February, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023.

In February, nearly two-thirds of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand goods, which advanced 1.2 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.6 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

Current graph with revisions...

Then there is this chart, which briefly compares the category to previous month's annual rate.

So the report was deemed as troubling, as it will be passed on to the consumer. No doubt inflation is not down to the level sought, but not a rapid acceleration. More of tepid acceleration in my opinion.

PPI Feb. 2024 release January 2024 Data

The BLS has released the January, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.8 percent in July 2023. In January, most of the advance is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which climbed 0.8 percent. The index for final demand trade services moved up 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4 percent. 

Product detail: A 2.2-percent increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased 1.0 percent. The indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing and for engineering services also moved lower. (See table 2.)

I emphasized a specfic portion. after much jockeying with revisions of numbers in the medical category over the past year... those have come to and end. So after all these revision helped tamp down inflation numbers, those days are over.

The headlines have focused on how the PPI report came in hotter than expected. I wonder if the expectations are real or some hope of immediate relief in those interest rates. It is coming, just not tomorrow. 

Producer Price Index January release December 2023 Data

The BLS has released the December Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved down 0.1 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.0 percent in 2023 after increasing 6.4 percent in 2022.

If the PPI is really a forerunner of consumer inflation, then CPI should continue to ease, as PPI has nearing same rate as CPI in the periods outlined below.

I would hope the drops in food and energy will continue, or at least stabilize. I suspect energy will creep up in the coming months, as this is a seasonal lull, according to previous December reports. Those same reports suggest a seasonal lull for foods.

I guess it is important to find the good news and celebrate... however fleeting it might be.

Producer Price Index December release November 2023 Data

The BLS has released the November Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and rose 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

In November, the indexes for both final demand goods and for final demand services were unchanged. 

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods was unchanged in November after dropping 1.4 percent in October. In November, price increases of 0.6 percent for final demand foods and 0.2 percent for final demand goods less foods and energy offset a 1.2-percent decrease in the index for final demand energy.

Let's revisit that paragraph. What did the -1.2% decrease in the index for final demand energy... offset?

Within final demand goods in November, prices for chicken eggs jumped 58.8 percent. The indexes for fresh fruits and melons, utility natural gas, electric power, and carbon steel scrap also moved higher. In contrast, prices for gasoline fell 4.1 percent.

So gasoline (-4.1%), which is typically moving into seasonal lows, is the reason for that -1.2% decrease, which offsets a bunch of rises in food (+0.6%) and other energy components. 

Not to nitpick, but if gasoline is having that impact, and is moving into seasonal lows, which might continue through the December release... could reverse beginning after Christmas, just like last year.

For those of us that like to eat food, that annualized 7.2% increase in food is going to weigh on the budget of many of us, unless we decide to eat less and lose "weight".

Producer Price Index October release with September 2023 Data

The BLS has released the September Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest increase since moving up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April. 

Leading the increase in the final demand index in September, prices for final demand goods rose 0.9 percent. The index for final demand services advanced 0.3 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in September, the fourth consecutive advance. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

As is often the case... there were revisions to previous month's data, so don't be surprised if this month's data is revised next month. The size of July's data was a bit surprising however. When that data came out, it was considered above expectations at +0.3%. A couple of month's later, it was revised to +0.6%, without any discussion.

In any case, I will continue to track, but this should wrap up publishing my thoughts.

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-29-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report. 

At long last, all regions are above both last year and 5 year average. Hooray!

EIA.GOV via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Time to wrap up the publishing of this weekly natural gas summary...

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-22-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is very near the 5 year average.

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The United Kingdom continues to slide in percent of storage filled. It should be noted that UK does have access to natural gas supplies and infrastructure for LNG. However, the flip side is more abrupt changes in pricing.

Which is most noticeable in the forward futures, as shown on this chart.

The US market continues to be somewhat stable. 

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-15-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is nearing the 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The overall EU pct. slipped since last week, but the volume in storage increased, as capacity increased.

While the EU as a whole, has approximately 100 days of supply, it should be noted that days supply varies greatly within the individual countries. 

Prices edged up in the EU and UK.

U.S. Henry Hub finished the week down -3¢.

Both TTF (Dutch) and UKG remain approximately double historical norms. Henry Hub is running about 2/3 of those norms.