Friday, April 28, 2023

West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal, but showing signs of life.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

But...
Slight improvement, with West Coast still lagging year ago, and 5 year. Mountain appears out of the woods, with everyone else showing hefty inventories for time of year. 

For Europe, inventories are well above both last year (double) and near top of 5 year average.

I shall divurge for a moment. Crude oil prices are in the range of October, 2021... or pre invasion, sanctions, etc. Yet global consumption is rather steady. Part of this was reducing SPR by various countries, but I suspect that significant amounts of "sanctioned" crude is still hitting the market. Then there is OPEC+, theoretically reducing output. So... 

I suspect the countries doing the sanctioning are ignoring these stream adjustments, as it benefits these countries, while talking a hard line. Virtue signaling has come to the sanctions regime, and was likely there... from the start.

On to the natgas pricing...

First up the USA. Prices have remained rather stable at the Henry Hub for nearly 3 months, with the average about $2.15MMBtu. This is more "normal" for pre Ukraine invasion pricing. The replenishment cost of the inventory is down, so the consumers should continue to see some easing.

For Europe the current pricing is still double "normal". It seems to have settled into a narrow band in the past 6 weeks. With the inventories heavy with very high priced natgas, the outlook for consumer relief is much farther down the road. 

Can Europe and the U.K. weather another winter? 


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