It's Been Awhile

Finally some more reports coming out from the government services, with PPI and Retail Sales. Granted it is still a month behind, as October data should be out. 

Inflation did edge up in September on the CPI and PPI. Real Earnings were recently released as well. The latter slipped down a bit, with the exception on weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory.

Retails sales edged up before inflation adjustments, which let it slip a bit.

Looking inside the numbers, it would appear "Brick and Mortar" department stores continue to slide, as well as those companies that sell brick and mortar...building supplies etc. It would also appear the hobbies are taking a hit as well... sporting goods, etc.

Changing direction on blogging

A new year is upon us, and just some thoughts.

I am changing direction, as I will restrict my blog entries on a variety of topics. I still track those areas, but find it a bit time consuming to post. Besides, it seems to have cluttered up the site, with no meaningful outside interest.

Thus returning to my thoughts and opinions. Which could be about anything. 

The presidential election is over, but politics is never over, so there is that.

The economy is something of interest, which includes several items and becomes political.

International events might arise, which are also political in nature. 

Frankly, about everything that happens anymore... becomes political, whether immigration, crime, etc.

I could summarize what transpired in 2024, but you should already know. What none of us know... is what impact it will have on 2025.

We have the debt ceiling, a new congress, a new president, wars cropping up everywhere, and the list goes on and on. 

After the past few years of revisions to various previous month's economic numbers, which resulted in more positive news on date of release... we will likely start to see the truth going forward. I am suggesting the results have not been as positive as the media has proclaimed. 

Energy Prices

Futures indicate that gasoline pump prices ranging from -4.2¢~+4.4¢ over the near term. 

Port Strike

It strongly appears that the ILA v USMX strike will be postponed for 3 1/2 months, as that would be the most beneficial for both sides. 

Tariffs

Has anyone been watching the foreign exchange market? The Yen and Yuan have been weakening against the dollar. So have a host of other currencies. 

Woohoo! The strong dollar fans are overlooking what caused offshoring and will inhibit reshoring. Our trading partners are not converting all those sales in dollars... back to their native currencies. No, they are purchasing Dollarized assets, such as bonds, financials, properties, etc. 

Basically... propping up the dollar. We have not learned a darn thing over the past 40 years, as to why the early 80s inflation was brought down so low, until the great covid shipping snafu. 

That's it for this week.

Advance Retail Sales Report- December 17th, 2024

November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023. Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.75% annual, and down 0.05% on the month. 

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

There us an upward trend in inflation adjusted sales, but have not regained the level of January, 2023.

Pay close attention to the data, as 70% of that advance from last month was "auto and other motor veh. dealers."

The question is why such a sudden jump? Not that I am questioning the data, as it mirrors the recently released SAAR, which was also a sharp rise... which was unexpected. So what is causing these unexpected numbers?

While I will continue to track the Advance Retail Sales for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of Advance Retail Sales going forward]

PPI - Dec. 2024 release with Nov. 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.  

As for the report card, it indicates inflationary pressures currently exist, with upward pressure into the future.

While the forecasts are not screaming rampant inflation, we should consider that we are currently at historical low points of monthly inflation... meaning the rate will pick up in the coming year, without the pending threat of tariffs.

[While I will continue to track the PPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of PPI going forward]

My electricity bills over time (November, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI. 

The October bill came in much higher than last year. +16.2% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is up +0.4% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy, as it is below other cost of living factors.

[EDIT: 12-17-24. While I will continue to track the my electricity usage for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of said usage going forward]

Advance Retail Sales Report- November 17th, 2024

October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023. Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

 Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.6% annual, and up 0.12% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

I will allow you to review the data from the Census Bureau, and make your own judgements. 

PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

My electricity bills over time (October, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The September bill came in much lower than last year. -8.3% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is down -2.5% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy.

Advance Retail Sales Report- October 17th, 2024

September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $714.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2023. Total sales for the July 2024 through September 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2024 to August 2024 percent change was unrevised from up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.4% annual, and up 0.16% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

Gasoline stations were the biggest losers, as would be expected with the fall in pump price. Also losing steam were home furnishings, electronics and appliances. Most other areas showed gains.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

My electricity bills over time (September, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The August bill came in much lower than last year. -10.5% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

I can take any good news and this is getting better.

Advance Retail Sales Report- September 17th, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.5% 

First up, the revision history (might need to click on, to up scale)...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

After last month's "stellar" report, which was mostly from revisions and other items, this month is tame.

There were winners and losers, however. The biggest sales numbers come from the auto sector, which faded a bit over the past month in adjusted sales, and is below the annual.

The next biggest sector is food and beverage stores, which also saw a decrease in adjusted sales. General merchandise continued that trend, with department stores sales for adjusted monthly and annual falling.

Food services and drinking establishments held steady for the monthly adjusted.

Mail order companies, continue to outpace nearly all others.

PPI September 2024 release with August 2024 Data

The BLS has released the September 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of August.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.

The report card continues to indicate easing of inflation. 

 

My electricity bills over time (August, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The July bill came in much higher than last year. +24.5% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The number of days, as well as temps were the main factor, as the cost per KWH, was 12.77¢, versus last year's 12.83¢.

Finally, we have had a bit of cool down, but that is ending this weekend. Have to wait until next month to see any downward movement.

PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

My electricity bills over time (July, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The July bill came in much higher than last year. +23.8% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -4.8% from one year ago. However, I am not sure that will last, as it has been hot AND dry in my neck of the woods. 

Hopefully, a cool spell will ease into the forecast. 

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

My electricity bills over time (June, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The June bill came in lower than the past 3 years and down -8.4% from one year ago. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -8.2% from one year ago. Another hopeful sign.

As for average by year, (note 2024 only has 6 months).

In theory, the remainder of 2024, should pull that number down. How much?

I should also point out... my weighting for electricity, is higher than the CPI. That is due to my overall expenditures being much lower than the Statistical CPI household. Which also means that movement in electricity bills have greater impact on my overall spending.

The weather is set to really heat up, so next month's electricity bill will likely come in much higher. I won't sweat it too much, as the thermostat will stay the same. 

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.

My electricity bills over time (May, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

On a 12 month rolling average, my costs are down -7.1% from previous year.

While it is improving... long gone are the days of less than $100 per month moving average.