Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- April, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of March data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

As always, here is a snapshot of early inflation or transitory, until it turned in to everybody's problem.

To rehash, the U.S. transitory inflation was a product of massive stimulus and a snarled global supply chain. Retailers in a desperate bid to restock, inflated shipping container prices, shipping costs, etc. Which did lead to pressures globally. 

Then came the energy crunch, which really impacted globally... for awhile.

Inflation seems to be steadying across the board. The expectations for a continuing slowing... is up in the air. 

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- March, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of February data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are aligning in a narrow band across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

This is from the "beginning".

I will not bore you with the whys, but a quick look at some important issues...

Another month in the bag, with inflation seemingly slowing on an annual rate, but generally speaking, the month over month rate, when annualized... is well above the annual rate. More work to do?

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- February, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of December data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are indeed about the same across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

Done for this month.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- January, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of December data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

A slight upward tick on the annual figures... across the board. I would expect some easing, once the January data comes forward.

For the silly ninnies that forget history, attempt to revise history, or are so gullible to be misled by their dear leaders...

Long before inflation was everywhere, the phrase was transitory. Yes Virginia, the USA led that "transitory" inflation, until the rest of the world started catching up. 

The chart is quite "busy", but the timeline is quite accurate. 

'nuff said!

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- December, 2023 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of November data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

For those individuals unable to think on their own and unable to question their masters, here is a timeline in rebuttal to the everyone has inflation. Look at the above chart to consider the timeline and now look at the below chart...

The EU method of calculating inflation is used, to better gain an apples to apples comparison. Yes, that line on top is U.S. inflation running well ahead of the EU and UK, or (sadly) what the your masters consider the rest of the world in U.S. political speak.

Geez!!!

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- November, 2023 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of October data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-29-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report. 

At long last, all regions are above both last year and 5 year average. Hooray!

EIA.GOV via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Time to wrap up the publishing of this weekly natural gas summary...

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-22-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is very near the 5 year average.

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The United Kingdom continues to slide in percent of storage filled. It should be noted that UK does have access to natural gas supplies and infrastructure for LNG. However, the flip side is more abrupt changes in pricing.

Which is most noticeable in the forward futures, as shown on this chart.

The US market continues to be somewhat stable. 

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- September, 2023 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of August data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The USA (CPI: +3.7%; +2.5% Eurostate method) and Canada +4.0%, ticked up for the 2nd consecutive month, with regards to year over year inflation. 

The EU has marked 10 consecutive months of decline in year over year inflation at 5.9%. That figure was down from 6.1% last month. It was not even across the board, as Germany's 6.5% of last month, dipped to 6.4%, which was improvement, but some countries... such as France increased from 5.1% to 5.7%, according to Eurostat.

The UK has now marked its 3rd consecutive decline at 6.3%, with the month over month at +0.4%, which was up from previous 2 months.

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-15-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is nearing the 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The overall EU pct. slipped since last week, but the volume in storage increased, as capacity increased.

While the EU as a whole, has approximately 100 days of supply, it should be noted that days supply varies greatly within the individual countries. 

Prices edged up in the EU and UK.

U.S. Henry Hub finished the week down -3¢.

Both TTF (Dutch) and UKG remain approximately double historical norms. Henry Hub is running about 2/3 of those norms. 

Natural Gas Summary... Week Ending 9-08-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region continues to be slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average, although still improving.

The South Central Region continued the slide against year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

Data per AGIS

The UK continues to reduce inventory, while Austria and Belgium slipped from last report.

Overall, NatGas prices slipped compared to last week.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 31, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region is now slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average.

The South Central Region slipped below one year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Nothing dramatic taking place, so steady as she goes, would be the best description, imho.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 24, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region continued to gain inventory, although still below one year ago and 5 year average.

The South Central region shed inventory over the week, yet remains well above year ago and 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Generally speaking, natural gas prices are significantly below one year ago levels, and more in line with pre-covid levels. 

Current price levels suggest consumer inflation in natgas as well as pass through products (electricity) will continue to moderate. These products represent about 3.6% of the average consumer basket.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- August, 2023 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of July data, I have updated my comparison graph...

Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostats. Once upon a time, the UK was also included. I guess somebody's nose got out of joint for some reason. 😈

In any case, there is some moderation with inflation in Europe and the UK, with the U.S. and Canada having a slight uptick... largely due to core inflation, but set to accelerate with energy prices now rising. Including in Europe and the UK.

Here is hoping for a mild winter, with no strikes and stable pricing going forward. 

Is that too much to ask for?

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 18, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year averages, although significant gains from last week.

Price changes in California were mixed this week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 7 cents, down from $5.71/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.64/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $2.85 from $4.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.80/MMBtu yesterday. El Paso Natural Gas Company reported maintenance on the North Mainline near Leupp, Arizona, beginning on Monday August 14. In addition, ongoing maintenance is occurring at the SoCalGas pipeline system. Prices in the West remain the highest in the country as above-average temperatures keep demand for cooling high and as the Pacific region remains the only region in the United States with below-average storage levels.

 

Henry Hub prices fell from last week, as well as on the futures market.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, August 11, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year levels, but is slowly gaining.

Prices increased in West Coast markets, still the highest priced markets in the United States, except in Southern California where a large maintenance event concluded. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border rose 37 cents from $3.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.09/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 54 cents, up from $5.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.71/MMBtu yesterday. 

 Select EU and UK storage...

Inventories continue to improve across the EU and UK. (100% inventory capacity is approximately a 90 day supply.)

Dutch and UK futures, surged 6% and 7% respectively over last week. February, 2024 futures, surged nearly 22% from last week.

Henry Hub futures surged 7% almost across the board.

The upward pressure stems from labor action in Australia, increased LNG demand in Asia, as well as a Norwegian pipeline tapering down to closure in early fall. The labor action had been somewhat anticipated, and certainly the latter two... were on tap. Or as Rumsfeld might have said... the labor action was a known unknown, and the latter were known knowns. 

So something else might be shaking the market.

Natural Gas Inventory Report, July 28, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

The Pacific Region slipped to -8.3% from last week's -7.9% last week's numbers, although year ago numbers edged up to -13.1% from -13.4%

Across much of the West, prices increased this week, particularly in California. In the Rocky Mountain region, the price at Cheyenne Hub in southeast Wyoming rose 16 cents from $2.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.40/MMBtu yesterday. In California, the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 40 cents, up from $4.89/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.29/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $6.69 from $5.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $12.33/MMBtu yesterday.

Ouch!!

 Select inventories of EU and UK... 

It should be noted that while percent of capacity is high... that capacity is generally only about a 3 month supply. It is much better than years past, but still dependent on weather and geo-politics.

Total EU rose to 84.49%, from last week's 82.53%.

Snapshot of the past, the current and the future outlook for prices.

 

Natural Gas Inventory Report, July 21, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.

Nationally, the inventory number continue to stay above the 5 year seasonal average.

The Pacific Region continues to gain, with last week's numbers, at -7.9% vs. -9.3% of one year ago. The 5 year seasonal numbers continue to improve.

In California, the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 57 cents, up from $4.32/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.89/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased $2.24 from $3.40/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.64/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector increased by 84% (1.3 Bcf/d) in California and by 10% (0.3 Bcf/d) in the desert Southwest this report week

 Select inventories of EU and UK... 

Total EU rose to 82.53%, from last week's 78.63%.

It should be noted that Gas in storage does not represent usage. An Example would be Germany has 212+ TWH in storage, but consumed approximately 847 TWH in 2022, which was a 17% decrease from 2021.

The following contains pricing information, that is based in Mmbtu and converted to US dollars for comparison purposes only. Forex is used for this comparison and should be noted that actual exchange rates on delivery may vary. 

Simply put... The EU and UK consumers do not use US Dollars, so be wary of these charts.

Snapshot of the past, the current and the future outlook for prices.

Just for comparison, the UK current pricing would suggest £1,522.06 per annum, while the 12 month high (FEB-24) would suggest £2,286.37. OFGEM has a cap around £2,047, which is line with the October futures.