The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.
Saturday, May 6, 2023
West Coast Natural Gas Inventories improving, but still below seasonal norms.
Friday, April 28, 2023
West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal, but showing signs of life.
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.
For Europe, inventories are well above both last year (double) and near top of 5 year average.
Friday, April 21, 2023
West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal, but showing a slight rise.
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.
In the West, prices generally declined this week, except for the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California, which rose 38 cents from $5.79/MMBtu last Wednesday to $6.17/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 33 cents from $7.99/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.66/MMBtu yesterday. In the Pacific Northwest, the price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border fell $1.17 from $4.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.63/MMBtu yesterday. Southern California Gas (SoCalGas) began planned maintenance on Line 5000 on Monday, April 17, which will curtail 630 million cubic feet per day of natural gas flows through April 28.
Still about triple the price of Henry Hub.
Elsewhere...
According to news reports, the UK storage is sufficient to last through the summer. Not sure what that even means, as future's prices seem to indicate a rise. In any case, the so called cap currently in place of £2,500 is likely to show little easing, in my humble opinion.
German inventories are holding steady at 64%. It should be noted the winter was mild, plus consumption was reduced... largely by industry, according to Der Spiegel. Can that extend through another year? If productivity was not impacted... were these industries wasteful?
Friday, April 14, 2023
West Coast Natural Gas Inventories still way below normal
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday.
The graph indicates at the upper end of the 5 year, a deeper dive results in something like this...Mountain and especially the West Coast is way below normal, which is also reflected in the pricing of that region, compared to others.Although falling week over week, prices in West Coast markets remain elevated and are currently the highest in the United States. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 66 cents from $8.65/MMBtu last Wednesday to $7.99/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell $1.52, down from $7.31/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.79/MMBtu yesterday.
Generally speaking, about triple the rest of the nation. Some specific issues were colder than normal weather, this past winter, as well as numerous pipeline problems.
Elsewhere...
Haven't checked UK storage, but Germany is holding steady at 64%, which is more than double this time last year and near 50% higher than the 2016~2020 average for same period.
It is hard to imagine a repeat of last year's gyrations and LNG shipments don't seem to be affecting Henry Hub. That is not to infer European energy costs are substantially waning. The consumer will likely continue to feel the shock for quite some time. Sorry!
Germany at 64% storage has to recoup the cost of that storage, which was really quite high... and continues to be quite high.
Thursday, April 6, 2023
Natural Gas Inventories look to be good, except on the left coast.
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.
In great shape, except for the west coast...Thursday, March 16, 2023
Cooking With Natural Gas March 16 2023
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.
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Of course, it varies by region...
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The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point in the Pacific Northwest, fell $3.74 from $7.16/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.42/MMBtu yesterday.
The price at Malin, Oregon, the northern delivery point into the PG&E service territory, fell $1.48 from $7.52/MMBtu last Wednesday to $6.04/MMBtu yesterday, leading to a $1.86/MMBtu decline in the price at the PG&E Citygate in Northern California from $8.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $6.94/MMBtu yesterday.
So the U.S. is starting to look good. HOWEVER, storage contains natural gas that was priced at much higher rates. While most futures are substantially down, that higher priced NatGas in storage will prop up energy prices to the consumer. They should trend downward from here. How long that takes... I don't know.
The same situation is seen in UK and EU. However prices are still elevated and will likely remain elevated. There should be some easing to the consumer, but not sure that will happen this year.
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Thursday, February 16, 2023
Cooking With Natural Gas Feb 16 2023
I had briefly considered a seasonal hiatus regarding the NatGas reports, but something popped up in my in basket, telling me to hold on for at least another 6 weeks. The Groundhog didn't lie, just missed the timing!!
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.
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Thursday, February 9, 2023
Cooking With Natural Gas Feb 9 2023
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.
Natural Gas storage is still within 5 year range for the USA.
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Friday, January 13, 2023
Natural Gas Report, Jan. 13 2023
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday.
Natural Gas storage is still holding up in the USA.
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Saturday, December 24, 2022
Natural Gas Report, Dec. 24, 2022
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday, and I am just now getting around to commenting, and given the current climate, could be old news.
Such as the latest storage being from 12-16.
Thursday, December 15, 2022
Natural Gas Report, Dec. 15, 2022
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today...
Thursday, December 8, 2022
Natural Gas Situation in the United States
The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today...
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Quick Take on GDP Revision
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated (refer to "Updates to GDP").
That is good news, except when delving into the details, although still not so bad... just not so optimistic going forward.
Thursday, November 17, 2022
Is There a Natural Gas Shortage In the US?
Not if today's report from EIA.GOV is any indication.
- The earth was 94.5 Million miles from the sun in July.
- The earth will be 91.4 Million miles from the sun this coming January.
Friday, November 11, 2022
Natural Gas Stats Nov-11-2022
The weekly update from the EIA.
Working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states as of October 31, 2022, totaled 3,531 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to month-ending estimates based on EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released November 10. This total is the second-lowest end-of-refill-season inventory level since 2008. Total inventory as of October 31 was 115 Bcf (3%) less than the five-year (2017–21) end-of-October average and 104 Bcf (3%) less than last year at this time.
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Thursday, October 27, 2022
GDP Thoughts, Natural Gas Summary
Today, we were blessed with the Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP Release, from the BEA.
You can read the report and check the data. Here are some of my thoughts. I can clearly see the GDP in 2012 dollars, increased by $126.4B. The drag of our trade imbalance slid by -$156.5B. In other words... if the trade imbalance had remained steady, everything else was negative. Throw in the gain for consumer spending of +$59.5B and the everything else is very negative.
I am not exactly optimistic going forward and fail to see much to be enthusiastic in this report. The first and second quarter trade imbalance, which had jumped dramatically was a result of early ordering to ensure on time delivery and early ordering to beat the port strike, that never materialized.
Not sure the consumer can continue to accelerate spending in the 4th quarter, as inflation headwinds are starting to seriously erode purchasing power.
As for the impact on GDP by inflation...
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A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVI
Really not seeing any major shifts, although the Minnesota margin widened ever so slightly. Still too difficult to read. The unadjusted poll...
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The BLS has released the April, 2024 Producer Price Index Report . ( historical releases ) The Producer Price Index for final demand rose...
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On to the Real Earnings . There seems to be a downward trend, across the board, even with downward revisions of previous months data. An in...
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First up is the BLS Report for CPI ...( historical releases ) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percen...