The monthly summary is not so wonderful, incomparison...
Friday, April 26, 2024
Review of March 2024 data, 1Q GDP, PCE and personal income
Friday, March 29, 2024
Review of February 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income
The monthly summary...
The overall PCE edged upward, on annual basis, with PCE ex food and energy staying flat.
Of course, the official got revised up for January, which indicates a difference from my report...
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Review of January 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income
The monthly summary...
Monday, January 29, 2024
Review of December 2023 data, 4Q GDP, PCE and personal income
Alas, 2023 reports have concluded. The GDP's 4Q advance reading indicates a sterling 3.1% rise. I will make mention of the 5 year Quinquennial revision from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars. As would be expected the numbers jumped 9.0%. I can't help but notice the big drag on GDP of net exports of good and services, slid a whopping -26.7%.
Even under the revised numbers, that latter component fell another -5.9% from one year ago.
Friday, December 22, 2023
Review of November 2023 data, GDP, PCE and personal income
I'll try not to harp about this too much. The BEA switched from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars for 3Q23, and adjusted prior data. I download all such reports, so I can easily tell the difference.
Yes, inflation is slowing, not deflating, with the exception of gasoline, which looks to have stopped falling.
All in all, a pretty good monthly report card. I do think the market is making too big a deal on expectations of the FED cutting rates before summer, but what do I know?
Tuesday, December 5, 2023
A Further Review of 3rd Quarter, 2023 GDP... just for fun!!
So yes, the GDP was revised to 5.2% annualized, from 4.9% annualized. That does not mean the economy is robust. It's not bad, but robust is a bit of hype for politicians.
The BEA moved from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars for the 3rd quarter releases and going forward, until next change in... say 5 years.
In theory, it should have been even across the board, after compensating for 5 years of dollar value adjustments, etc. Such as inflation being about 7.5% during that 5 year period.
If only there was someone, somewhere that downloads those excel spreadsheets from each GDP iteration.
Voila...
Note the column headings for 2012 dollars and 2017 dollars AND the % Change. The changes were clearly not uniform across the various groupings.
While there was a 9% upward adjustment, several groupings failed to match that rise, including some that went negative... while others outpaced the 9% reading.
So in theory, all the numbers going back in time were revised to reflect the current situation. But again, that was very uneven. Just consider the trade deficit, which is a drag on GDP... and those changes.
All in all, it did distort the 3rd quarter readings and possibly provided a misleading annualized number. That would be no big deal... if not for an election year and people willing to make everything political.
While the current 5.2% annualized is being hailed as something significant, I wonder what will be hailed, when the 4th Qtr. 2023 is revealed on January 25th, 2024. My guess is way below that 5.2%. Back to the 2.0% annualized, or even lower!
One can imagine the hysteria over such falling numbers, but the adjustment was improperly attributed to a "robust" economy.
So remember... the trade deficit, which is a drag on GDP was revised dramatically lower, after the BIG change for 2012 to 2017 dollars. That trade deficit adjustment was about 100% of that 5.2% annualized, or ±0.1% annualized without that lone adjustment.
You think I might be off my rocker! The current Real GDP rolls in at 22,506.4B, which is a hefty 281B above the 2nd qtr. figure of 22,225.4B. Now take a look at that downward revision of the trade deficit, -284B.
Remember the trade deficit is a drag on GDP, so a downward revision in the Trade deficit would result in a higher GDP print. IF the GDP had not been revised downward by -284B, then that +281B gain in GDP would evaporate. As in +0.1% annualized.
One group will claim the economy is crashing into a recession, another group will be saying soft landing is working, and another group will be screaming the FED must cut rates rapidly.
I then ask you, if stating the 3Q23 was actually 0.1% and the 4Q24 was +1.7%, would indeed indicate a possible soft landing. Of course, the groups would likely being crying the same thing... just 3 months earlier.
It is fun to watch all the spin!
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Review of October 2023 data, GDP, PCE and personal income
Just some charts with a bit of commentary...
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Quick Review of The GDP report 2Q-2023, 3rd estimate
First off, the base year for chained dollars is now 2017, instead of the previous 2012.
Secondly, there were revisions in past quarters, or updates. This is done annually.
- 2023 Quarter one GDP was revised upward, from 2.0% annualized, to 2.2% annualized.
- 2023 Quarter one GDI was revised upward from -1.8% annualized to 0.5% annualized.
There are other changes, but that was a sampling.
While the chained dollar report for last month, based on 2012, showed the Real GDP at 20.387T, the new report based on 2017, is now 22.225T.
However, there were significant reductions in the report, with Durable Goods being reduced, both on the personal consumption level and imports.
Clearly there were large adjustments elsewhere to overcome those changes, such as in personal consumption services (quite large), Fixed Investment and Government consumption and Net exports of goods and services.
Nothing really out of line from expectations, although the Personal Consumption Expenditures for Goods was quite a drop from Quarter one. However, it is still positive and the drop was not quite a surprise, as the Monthly PCE report has been screaming a sharp decline.
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
Quick Review of The GDP report 2Q-2023, 2nd estimate
The BEA released the 2nd estimate of 2Q-2023 GDP...
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending.
Here is a screenshot of the data page...
Thursday, July 27, 2023
Quick Review of The Advance GDP report 2Q-2023
First off... a screen shot with some additions.
Friday, June 30, 2023
Review of PCE, GDP, etc., for end of June, 2023
Another month to review (with some comments at the end)...
The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending.
I highlighted my area of concern. Note the statement of upward revision in consumer spending, then review the PCE expenditures directly above. January was good and presumably the revision upward in February would match up with the quoted statement.
However, April was revised up a mere +0.2 from original flat and May is also flat.
So where is the growth coming from in the 2nd quarter?
Saturday, May 27, 2023
Review of PCE, GDP, etc., for end of May, 2023
Friday, April 28, 2023
Review of PCE, GDP, and other Nonsense, for end of April, 2023
I found some things of interest in the GDP and PCE reports, but first... the usual nonsense.
The sticky prices continue to be the story.
Saturday, April 1, 2023
Review of PCE, GDP, and other Nonsense
So here is the various inflation numbers...
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Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Quick Take on GDP Revision
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated (refer to "Updates to GDP").
That is good news, except when delving into the details, although still not so bad... just not so optimistic going forward.
Thursday, October 27, 2022
GDP Thoughts, Natural Gas Summary
Today, we were blessed with the Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP Release, from the BEA.
You can read the report and check the data. Here are some of my thoughts. I can clearly see the GDP in 2012 dollars, increased by $126.4B. The drag of our trade imbalance slid by -$156.5B. In other words... if the trade imbalance had remained steady, everything else was negative. Throw in the gain for consumer spending of +$59.5B and the everything else is very negative.
I am not exactly optimistic going forward and fail to see much to be enthusiastic in this report. The first and second quarter trade imbalance, which had jumped dramatically was a result of early ordering to ensure on time delivery and early ordering to beat the port strike, that never materialized.
Not sure the consumer can continue to accelerate spending in the 4th quarter, as inflation headwinds are starting to seriously erode purchasing power.
As for the impact on GDP by inflation...
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Friday, September 30, 2022
Finishing Up Data for September, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update this morning.
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Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.1 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 1.3 percentage points from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 0.3 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage point (table 1).
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The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B enrollees will be $164.90 for 2023, a decrease of $5.20 from $170.10 in 2022. The annual deductible for all Medicare Part B beneficiaries is $226 in 2023, a decrease of $7 from the annual deductible of $233 in 2022.
It is unusual the announcement could be made so early, as it usually comes in mid November, which always fall just after an election. The announcement is barely visible on all those old people boards I follow. It's still good to be able to keep and additional $62.40 per year, even if it would purchase what was $57.35 last year.
Speaking of inflation, the September numbers from the BLS will come out on the 13th of October. Here is my current projection of C.O.L.A.
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I'm struggling on whether it will be 8.7% or 8.8%. Earlier, I had 8.6% in the mix, but I think that has gone bye bye. Likely 8.8%, with a possible 8.9%.
Frankly, the likelihood of the CPI-U jumping 0.28% and the CPI-W at 0.37% is not unreasonable, although something a bit lower on the CPI-W lands at 8.8%.
In July, the -7.7% drop in gasoline covered up all the other price inflation taking place. In August, the -10% drop in gasoline could NOT cover up all the other price inflation taking place. September is ending with only a -5.5% drop in gasoline. So look out.
Much of the reason for the national average of gasoline prices rising the past ten days, has to do with California switching from summer blend to winter blend. It happens every year. It should begin slowing next week.
Most Americans don't grasp that, but politicians do. So a wonderful time to point out the national average is rising, proclaim retailers must halt the exploitation and then take a victory lap next week. We Americans are such suckers.
As for gasoline prices, I am not sure what they will do, when that 1MBPD SPR release ends just before the election. Couple that with the possibility of OPEC cutting a few barrels... who knows.
Natural Gas is staying ahead of the curve and possibly gaining some...
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All in all, another decent month. It could be the last for awhile, but who knows? Or rather... who cares?
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Friday, August 26, 2022
GDP 2Q, 2022 2nd Est., PCE, Income and Outlays, Inflation Summary and Opinions!
The BEA released the 2nd estimate of GDP and it was revised to -0.6% annualized. You can read the link at your leisure. I am not going to yap about the data or the verbiage in the release.
What did amaze me, was a ripple in the news about the trade deficit. Here is my updated trade deficit drag on GDP...
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Personal income increased $47.0 billion (0.2 percent) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $23.7 billion (0.1 percent).The PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in July and real PCE increased 0.2 percent; goods increased 0.2 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 5 and 7).
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This Week in Petroleum Summary May 8th, 2024 per EIA.GOV
This week's full report . Gasoline fell -2.3¢ for the week, but remains +10.3¢ from year ago level. Consumption did edge up this past r...
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Another week, another report. This Week in Petroleum from the EIA.gov. Click to Enlarge*The Net- U.S. only is adjusted for 5,070,000 barrel...
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Today, we were blessed with the Advance Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP Release , from the BEA. You can read the report and check the data. Here...
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The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report yesterday. The Pacific Region continues to be below year ago and 5 year...