Breakdown of CPI DATA and Real Earnings, February 2022

The BLS Report from February, 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

From Last Month... The forecast for February numbers, due out in March are 7.59%~7.9%. So it was on the upper end. Remember this is inflation for the month of February.

With this release comes a variety of other numbers...

I am at a 5.9% annual rate...

This rise was largely attributable to food at home, which on the BLS report, outpaced the overall inflation rate at 8.6%

The forecast for March is a bit blurry, due to energy prices, but the expectations would be 8.2% ~ 9.1%. I would unhappily lean towards the 8.7% range, just based on the rapid rise of gasoline during this month, although it may be peaking as I type. I would expect the upward trend in food prices to continue. 

Of course it is all speculation, as we are not at mid month, but I feel it is safe to say that prices will not recede.

On to the earnings report...

This was a disappointment, with an -11¢ per hour decline. Maybe weekly earnings improved...

NO. For the 3rd straight month real weekly earnings declined. Remember all the data thus far is for February.

Going forward, we must remember the 8.0% number, as that rate of inflation is largely without the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. The impact of the war on energy and food costs is yet to come. We must also remember that weather impacts food costs and with spring around the corner and the thought of summer vacations on the horizon... energy costs will likely rise as inventories of petroleum products are at or below the 5 year range. 

Earlier I mentioned the expectations of inflation rates for our current month, due out in the 2nd week of April. Going forward into April potential expectations, the inflation rate for a month to month increase is staggering (think June 2008 or 9-2005's Katrina or 1-1990 Gulf War) as well as the double digit year to year (Oct-1981). 

I suspect the economy will begin to cool at about this time and the longer range inflation forecasts indicate as much. Tuesday will bring the PPI report out and some indication of pricing going forward might be seen. It will be followed the next day with retail sales, which should be interesting. A lot of revisions, etc. last month under the guise of "usual annual" stuff, so it will be interesting to see the spin on that report.

Buckle up, the peak is still a ways off, imo.

MY MUDDLED THOUGHTS AND ATTEMPTS TO MAKE SENSE OF IT ALL

Normally I write about Inflation and "business" outlook, etc. Recent events have muddled my thoughts and it is hard to make sense of what might happen... so here goes, while acknowledging recent events potential impact.

Inflation 

The BLS CPI report is slated for release on March 10th. THIS REPORT IS FOR FEBRUARY, so would have limited impact from the invasion. The range is 7.6% ~ 7.9%, with the upper end more likely. Pre Invasion expectations for March CPI, being released in April... to be even higher. 

It is those expectations that are going to be heavily impacted by the Ukraine Invasion.

Food

The potential disruption of basic food commodities, have driven multiple items to either all time highs or nearing those all time highs. Wheat, Corn, Barley, Canola, Rice, etc. etc. 

Grains are going up, so what about meats? There is a mixed message compared to a couple of months back, with the likelihood of staying flat. However, while chicken prices are moderating, there are worries about bird flu, etc. 

The CPI has food as about 14% of the average household expense. It should come as no surprise that the above average income households spend less that 14% and below average income households, will spend more that 14%. 

It is about 50/50 of that 14% going to food away from home and food at home. I have no data as to how that breaks out for above and below average income households, so will refrain from positing a guess. I would think the food index will rise month to month and add onto the inflation pressures. 

Energy

While energy makes up only about 8% of the CPI index compared to food's 14%, guess which will get all the media attention! That most of the current significant rises are in the past few days, the March 10th report is considering just the month of February.

I have no doubt the national average for gasoline will reach all time highs and possibly reach $4.5 @ gallon. The previous was in July, 2008 at either $4.11 or $4.17, depending on data source. This level, with everything else staying flat, would push March inflation to 8.5% y/y. For reference, this is in the range of  Jan48 ~ Aug48 preceding a recession; Feb51 ~ Jun 51 Korean War; Dec73 ~ Aug75 Oil embargo resulting in recession and Oct78 ~ Dec81, which straddled two recessions and the Iran Revolution.

I guess I am saying that nothing gets Americans more antsy... than the price of gasoline. Not even...

Ukraine

Certainly I am concerned about the innocent lives being taken and the disruptions to others. It is not lost on me that not a lot will be done, other than taking in refugees, etc. I recall reading where it has become popular in Ukrainian circles to wonder how many more buildings are left in the west, to be lit up with Ukrainian colors. Apparently, they realize this is about the extent of their support. Is that what is called "virtue signaling?"

Here in the USA on social media, it seems the discussion is about all the things we should've, could've or would've done to prevent this. I am not sure how this could have been avoided, short of keeping the U.S.S.R. intact. A right that wasn't ours to make. 

Sure, we might have rejected those former members of the Warsaw Pact from joining NATO, but why? And why did they ask to join NATO? I don't recall NATO countries sending in tanks and overrunning those countries and forcing them to join NATO.

Sadly, we can now see the answer to these questions. Horrifying as it might seem, Russia will eventually pound Ukraine into submission. Then some rebel enclave (Russian) in Moldavia will need to have Russian "peacekeepers", so who will be next?

A couple of other questions might be... Is Putin really that strong? Or are we just that weak? Frankly, the lack of resolve by western countries can be pinned on a very divided public. It should also be pointed out that while a large number of countries voted to condemn the invasion and a very few rejected the U.N. condemnation... the abstentions were by countries with nearly 1/2 of the global population. We in the west need to toughen up or the future will be grim, imo.

Putin

It is not uncommon for idiots such as myself to make stupid statements. To have national leaders uttering such statements is borderline insane. 

Uttering that someone in Putin's inner circle should take him out, is something idiots like me would say. I would suspect that Putin's inner circle are not nice people and have their own vested interests, which might include assuming Putin's leadership position at some point... once their own vested interests are in place and could safely assume that role. In other words, someone that is whispering in Putin's ear and Putin considers as being faithful to him. Possibly even a more sinister version of Putin.

I am reminded of Fidel Castro. Fidel Castro came to power by ousting Fulgencio Batista, a person which was reviled by the US. Castro was treated with open arms, appearing on American Television as some kind of conquering hero... until he quickly lost that mantle and became the most hated by the same groups. It did not take long and led to assassination attempts, severing of diplomatic ties, The Bay of Pigs and finally leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Be damn careful of what you wish.

Summation

I suspect the Ukraine invasion will shortly be displaced on American television as inflation and economic worries become more prominent. As for inflation, the polls seem to indicate that 50% of the American public blames Biden and 25% blame Putin. Which may explain the Administration's reluctance to sever Russian Imports and the Republicans are keen on doing just that. Politics is always in play.

I frequent various European news editions and this will likely be the same, and they have a much bigger dependence on Russia's energy. 

How we got in this shape can and should be discussed, but afterwards we must acknowledge... WE ARE IN THIS SHAPE! What are we DO about it and not just talk about it?

Is Working from Home Really Good?

 

via GIPHY

Granted, working from home seems like a novel idea and has been used extensively these past 24 months. Also, there seems to be a move to continue after the pandemic abates. But is it really good in the long term view?

I don't care how productive you may be from home, it hampers advancement within any organization. Seriously, the advantage of playing golf with the boss, is not about talking work while golfing, but rather talking a bit of golf during work. It is an entry into an interaction with the boss. That's an element that is missing with working from home. Out of sight is out of mind in most workplaces.

So you're not worried about advancement and are perfectly content with your current freedoms given to you by working at home. Do you have a clue about how any money making enterprise functions. A new enterprise is about expansion and a mature enterprise is about reducing costs. 

Working from home introduces the novel idea of  that home being anywhere in the world. How wonderful for you... until someone realizes you can be replaced by cheap foreign labor, that is also working from their home. 

Think your work is too valuable for something like that to happen? Which person is more likely to get the axe... someone that interacts on occasion with the boss or someone the boss rarely sees?

Out of sight... out of mind.

Near End of the Month, So January 2022 Inflation Numbers and Other Stuff.

 

ALL the inflation numbers are in and they are pointing upward, with the exception of PPI, which was flat. But the leading indicators of PPI are still in double digits. 

Quite a bit of chatter regarding energy prices and how they will ramp up inflation. There is no denying that, but every single number that excludes food and energy is up as well. Don't be misled by headlines screaming energy costs are going to cause double digit inflation. 

We might very well see double digit inflation, but if everything stays flat and energy were to drive up the overall inflation... then crude would need to be in the $180 @ bbl. We will be in recession, well before that occurs. Energy is a part of inflation, but not the entire story. Attempting to backward blame inflation on solely energy and current geo-politics, is to ignore the inflation prior to these events.

Those inflation factors are still prevalent and really no let up going forward the next couple of months. Previously the inflation was anticipated to peak in February (numbers due out in March), but those energy related and geo-political issues might edge up succeeding months. We were in the May/June timeframe of any year over year relief... which is prior to certain current events.

There is talk of the FED backing off rate hikes but maybe a bit premature. Granted the FED is looking for any excuse to avoid lifting rates, but they are behind the curve, so will raise rates, to make room for lowering them later on. 

As for Ukraine... they are not a member of the EU or of NATO, but a member of the UN. 30+ years ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, which was also a member of the UN. A coalition was quickly and rapidly formed to kick Iraq out. Kuwait had oil, Ukraine not so much. 

Not sure how this thing will turn out, but it will soon become old news and everyone will move on. That is the sad state of things. There will be a period of media pictures and videos of bombs exploding, missiles being launched, but then this will become boring and no longer a driver of news ratings. 

Not unlike Covid, which still has a high death rate, but somehow is cured... at least to the extent it does not make more than a ripple in the news. Everyone is racing to get back to normal, which means accepting certain unpleasant facts. 

Currently the forecast for February CPI numbers (Due out in March 10th) stands in the range of 7.63% to 7.9%. 7.62% was the annual rate in February 1982. January 1982 was 8.39%.

Retail Trade Report for January-2022

 

The Census Bureau released the advance data for January Retail. Woohoo, it was up 3.8% AFTER a downward revision of last month by -2.5%. (Which wasn't the only revision.)

This was last month's graph...

In any case the 3.8% would appear to be stellar until you realize it is not adjusted for inflation. When looking at the past few months... it becomes clear that the amount of "stuff" we are buying has plateaued, while the cost of the same amount of "stuff" has simply risen. 

Frankly, I don't understand the hoopla surrounding this report. Of course, I am just an ignorant hillbilly and know nothing of these matters. 

Producer Price Index for January 2022

 

The Producer Price Index as released by the BLS, this A.M. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent in December 2021 and 0.9 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent for the 12 months ended January 2022. 

In January, the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent, and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.3 percent.

Again, an ever so slight deceleration in upstream stages. (note the Eurostat for US is my estimate as the actual info has not been published).

The retail report tomorrow, while also backward looking, could provide some indication of future activity.

Just read an article that said $115 per barrel of oil could drive inflation to 10%. My calculations indicate a figure nearer to 8.4%, which leaves the over 92% of the remaining to increase above that rate. Let's not fixate on just one part of the consumer purchasing basket, imo.

Breakdown of CPI DATA and Real Earnings, January 2022

 

The BLS report for January, Indicated a 7.5% yoy inflation rate with the month on month being 0.8% unadjusted or 0.6% after adjustments.

With this release comes a variety of other numbers...

I am at the 5.7% annual rate...

Not as bad as the overall, but nothing to be joyful about. Food was up, but the biggest portion was attributable to medical costs. Much of that was beginning of the year co-pays and deductibles. Hopefully, the following months will recede to rather low levels of medical inflation... compared to year's past. 

I had previously forecast January to fall between 7.04% ~ 7.40%. That 7.5% was a bit of a shock and now brings the 7.62% rate in February 1982 into play. The current forecast for February numbers, due out in March are 7.59%~7.9%, 7.74% as median. 

On to the earnings report.

The hourly real earnings (earnings after inflation adjustment) edged up 1¢. This would seem to indicate that earnings are at least keeping up with inflation. However...

Real weekly earnings slipped, due to a decrease in hours worked. This is the 2nd straight month and is not reassuring, imo.

As for the CPI forecast, more will be clear on Tuesday, with the PPI release. Let's keep our fingers crossed.