So Far No Recession

It's been awhile since last post, as I have been very busy.

First up, the CPI report. My personal CPI was 2.4%, which matched the CPI-U. The CPI-W edged up to 2.2%, and the forecast of COLA jumped up quite a bit. 

Yep the forecast numbers have moved upward. Likely to continue upward movement, as the jump in crude prices, will likely shove the index up +0.05%. 

The PPI edged up and got some publicity, which was lacking the previous 2 down months. In any case, the PPI stands at 148.072, compared to last month's 147.884. It had peaked in February at 148.347.

As alluded to earlier... crude prices are jumping, with the likelihood of soon seeing a 10¢ a gallon rise at the pump. How much higher is dependent upon the Middle East, at this point.

The next report of interest, will be the advance retail sales. Projections have that number slipping a bit, which is not inflation adjusted. Therefore a bit lower than the projection.

Producer Price Index and some other opinions

The Producer Price Index was released this morning and indicated an upturn.

Note that I did not revise the December, 2024 final demand, as did the BLS. Yes, December was revised upward to 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142025.htm

The nervous nellies will scream inflation is roaring back. Maybe so, but it will not repeat the horrors of 2021~2022. How can I say that? Once you understand the causes, the answer becomes easy.

• After the covid shutdown and collapse of international trade, the shipping industry was in disarray, with containers to move goods... in all the wrong places.
• Retailers had significantly reduced inventories to meet the slowing demand.
• There was a rather large stimulus paid to American citizens, on top of some previous payouts.
• The covid vaccine was becoming rapidly available.
• The American people were told that it was now safe to resume normal activities.
• An impending west coast port strike for mid 2022, which did not materialize.

Newly freed from fear Americans started immediately spending that stimulus money, which boosted retail sales by 10% in the first month.  The retailers, started ramping up orders significantly to restock the shelves, which exposed the problems with the shipping containers. This was compounded by retailers, pulling orders well ahead to heavily stock up... prior to the threatened west coast port strike. 

The shipping industry has finally recovered, the retail inventories have reached stability, and there are no strike threats on the horizon. There was consideration of a possible port strike on the east coast and gulf, which did increase orders, as well as impending tariff expectations, which also increased orders. 

The port strike is in the rear view mirror and the shipping industry sailed through it easily. The tariff question is still to be answered.

As a further note on retail sales... when adjusted for inflation, they have remained at that March, 2021 level. That will likely be the indicator of future demand... or lack thereof. 

Tariffs would likely weaken demand, so the expectation of massive inflation due to tariffs... not so much.

PPI - Dec. 2024 release with Nov. 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.  

As for the report card, it indicates inflationary pressures currently exist, with upward pressure into the future.

While the forecasts are not screaming rampant inflation, we should consider that we are currently at historical low points of monthly inflation... meaning the rate will pick up in the coming year, without the pending threat of tariffs.

[While I will continue to track the PPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of PPI going forward]

PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

PPI September 2024 release with August 2024 Data

The BLS has released the September 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of August.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.

The report card continues to indicate easing of inflation. 

 

PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.

PPI MAY 2024 release April 2024 Data

The BLS has released the April, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in March and advanced 0.6 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest increase since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

Nearly three-quarters of the April advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 0.6-percent increase in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.4 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4 percent in April after rising 0.2 percent in March. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.1 percent, the largest advance since climbing 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.2% rise on year to year, increased from last month and is the new highest since April, 2023. The rise was tempered by a drop in energy prices, and best of all... food. The latter showing the first decrease in 3 months, after sharp increases. We will wait and see how that is reflected in grocery store prices.

Despite the slight rise year over year, the troubling part is month over month, which reversed last month's pullback. +0.5% v -0.1%.

The where can be found in the detailed report. If the month to month was +0.5%, look for the areas more than that figure, to determine the inflationary pressures.

PPI APR. 2024 release March 2024 Data

The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent.

Now for a graph and chart...

As stated, the 2.1% is the highest final demand number since April 2023. There seems to be some quibbling over that number, as related to gasoline prices. I should point out the "preliminary" tag on many items. So we can expect some more adjustments in those months.

I have read where the final demand would have been 2.4%, had the gasoline been correctly attributed. I don't think the annual would have seen that. However, the monthly figure is indeed laughable, and should have been near last month's figure.. 

The final demand is creeping up, which is troubling. Even more troubling is the final demand for food, which popped a healthy +0.8% on the month, which follows +1.1% for the previous month. Chew on that for awhile.

 

PPI Mar. 2024 release February 2024 Data

The BLS has released the February, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023.

In February, nearly two-thirds of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand goods, which advanced 1.2 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.6 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

Current graph with revisions...

Then there is this chart, which briefly compares the category to previous month's annual rate.

So the report was deemed as troubling, as it will be passed on to the consumer. No doubt inflation is not down to the level sought, but not a rapid acceleration. More of tepid acceleration in my opinion.

PPI Feb. 2024 release January 2024 Data

The BLS has released the January, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.8 percent in July 2023. In January, most of the advance is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which climbed 0.8 percent. The index for final demand trade services moved up 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4 percent. 

Product detail: A 2.2-percent increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased 1.0 percent. The indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing and for engineering services also moved lower. (See table 2.)

I emphasized a specfic portion. after much jockeying with revisions of numbers in the medical category over the past year... those have come to and end. So after all these revision helped tamp down inflation numbers, those days are over.

The headlines have focused on how the PPI report came in hotter than expected. I wonder if the expectations are real or some hope of immediate relief in those interest rates. It is coming, just not tomorrow. 

Producer Price Index January release December 2023 Data

The BLS has released the December Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved down 0.1 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.0 percent in 2023 after increasing 6.4 percent in 2022.

If the PPI is really a forerunner of consumer inflation, then CPI should continue to ease, as PPI has nearing same rate as CPI in the periods outlined below.

I would hope the drops in food and energy will continue, or at least stabilize. I suspect energy will creep up in the coming months, as this is a seasonal lull, according to previous December reports. Those same reports suggest a seasonal lull for foods.

I guess it is important to find the good news and celebrate... however fleeting it might be.

Producer Price Index December release November 2023 Data

The BLS has released the November Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and rose 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

In November, the indexes for both final demand goods and for final demand services were unchanged. 

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods was unchanged in November after dropping 1.4 percent in October. In November, price increases of 0.6 percent for final demand foods and 0.2 percent for final demand goods less foods and energy offset a 1.2-percent decrease in the index for final demand energy.

Let's revisit that paragraph. What did the -1.2% decrease in the index for final demand energy... offset?

Within final demand goods in November, prices for chicken eggs jumped 58.8 percent. The indexes for fresh fruits and melons, utility natural gas, electric power, and carbon steel scrap also moved higher. In contrast, prices for gasoline fell 4.1 percent.

So gasoline (-4.1%), which is typically moving into seasonal lows, is the reason for that -1.2% decrease, which offsets a bunch of rises in food (+0.6%) and other energy components. 

Not to nitpick, but if gasoline is having that impact, and is moving into seasonal lows, which might continue through the December release... could reverse beginning after Christmas, just like last year.

For those of us that like to eat food, that annualized 7.2% increase in food is going to weigh on the budget of many of us, unless we decide to eat less and lose "weight".

Producer Price Index October release with September 2023 Data

The BLS has released the September Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest increase since moving up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April. 

Leading the increase in the final demand index in September, prices for final demand goods rose 0.9 percent. The index for final demand services advanced 0.3 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in September, the fourth consecutive advance. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

As is often the case... there were revisions to previous month's data, so don't be surprised if this month's data is revised next month. The size of July's data was a bit surprising however. When that data came out, it was considered above expectations at +0.3%. A couple of month's later, it was revised to +0.6%, without any discussion.

In any case, I will continue to track, but this should wrap up publishing my thoughts.

Producer Price Index September release with August 2023 Data

The BLS has released the July Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, after rising 0.4 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (See table A.) The August advance is the largest increase in final demand prices since moving up 0.9 percent in June 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

In August, 80 percent of the rise in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.0-percent jump in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services advanced 0.2 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in August, the same as in July. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.0 percent, the largest advance since moving up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

So, the story is about gasoline prices creating most of the PPI. This might be true, but the current forecast is up and not down for that commodity.

Everything is screaming some future relief, except for what drove the August PPI higher. September is shaping up as a repeat of August, imho.

Not the most scientific metric, but there is more pink than last month. Not saying inflation is about to accelerate, but not so sure that crude oil will taper off its current rise. And we should remember that yesterday's CPI report mentioned the impact of gasoline, but also indicated that energy prices were down compared to one year ago... current at 294.328, year ago at 305.372. Gasoline current... 336.979, year ago at 348.593.

So, if last month's PPI was impacted by energy and thereby distorting the number, then energy being cheaper this year than last... would indicate the YoY 1.6% is also distorted. In fact the release indicates the PPI excluding energy was 2.0%. 

That is not a bad number, imho. Things are indeed looking up... except for pump prices, which are also looking up, but not in a good way.

Producer Price Index August 2023 release

The BLS has released the July Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and declined 0.3 percent in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July. 

In July, the increase in final demand prices was led by a 0.5-percent rise in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent.

The rate of increases has somewhat slowed and selected areas are now trending downward. The PPI since start of Covid has risen 17.3%, compared to the CPI rise of 19.2%. (That is just two data points and should not be construed as any indication of some guaranteed future changes.)

Certainly improvement, but overall a "D" rating as for inflation outlook, imho. August would appear to have a further inflation uptick, from July's reports. 

Producer Price Index July 2023 release for June Data.

The BLS has released the June Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.4 percent in May and edged up 0.1 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent for the 12 months ended in June. 

In June, the increase in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.2-percent rise in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods were unchanged.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.1 percent in June after no change in May. For the 12 months ended in June, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.6 percent.

The rate of increases has slowed and selected areas are now trending downward. The PPI since start of Covid has risen 17.8%, compared to the CPI rise of 18.3%. (That is just two data points and should not be construed as any indication of some guaranteed future changes.)

The downward trend continues...

Except...

The attention is now shifting to "services"..

Even this will likely resume falling by next month, as it is an annual rate. The montly stood flat, after two months of gains.

Still, a good report... IF the trend continues.

Producer Price Index June 2023 release for May Data.

The BLS has released the April Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.3 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in April and fell 0.4 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

In May, the decline in the final demand index can be traced to prices for final demand goods, which fell 1.6 percent. The index for final demand services increased 0.2 percent. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May after inching up 0.1 percent in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent. 

Overall, the trend is downward and some relief might be in sight for the consumer.

The decreased costs in unprocessed intermediate, have not completely moved into the processed area. Possibly by next month? 

Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 4.8 percent in May after increasing 1.6 percent in April. Almost 60 percent of the broad- based decrease is attributable to a 7.8-percent drop in prices for unprocessed energy materials. 

Nearly 60 percent of the May decline in the index for unprocessed goods for 

intermediate demand can be traced to prices for crude petroleum, which fell 10.2 percent.

The price drops all across the petroleum sector are evident in the report. Another big drop should be forthcoming in the report for June, as this sector peaked last June. 

After that, the impact of petroleum will decrease and the focus will shift elsewhere. As the saying goes... the low hanging fruit will have been picked by fall. 

When looking at the overall, as in the first graph and seeing it hold relatively steady, then realizing the significant drops in energy... sticky it is.