PPI November 2024 release with October 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in September and 0.2 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

In October, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.3 percent in October after moving up 0.1 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.5 percent

 

Note that June through September numbers, were revised upward. Primarily June, which was originally posted at 0.2%, but now at 0.4%.

The data is starting to show pink again, and with the seasonal changes expected in energy... not so optimistic on going forward, imho.

Advance Retail Sales Report- October 17th, 2024

September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $714.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2023. Total sales for the July 2024 through September 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2024 to August 2024 percent change was unrevised from up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.4% annual, and up 0.16% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

Gasoline stations were the biggest losers, as would be expected with the fall in pump price. Also losing steam were home furnishings, electronics and appliances. Most other areas showed gains.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

Advance Retail Sales Report- September 17th, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.5% 

First up, the revision history (might need to click on, to up scale)...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

After last month's "stellar" report, which was mostly from revisions and other items, this month is tame.

There were winners and losers, however. The biggest sales numbers come from the auto sector, which faded a bit over the past month in adjusted sales, and is below the annual.

The next biggest sector is food and beverage stores, which also saw a decrease in adjusted sales. General merchandise continued that trend, with department stores sales for adjusted monthly and annual falling.

Food services and drinking establishments held steady for the monthly adjusted.

Mail order companies, continue to outpace nearly all others.

PPI September 2024 release with August 2024 Data

The BLS has released the September 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of August.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.

The report card continues to indicate easing of inflation. 

 

Advance Retail Sales Report- August 15th, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, July Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023. Total sales for the May 2024 through July 2024 period were up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

As for those revisions...

So a big upward month, after all the previous month's downward revisions.

When adjusted for inflation...

Of course the current unadjusted number (709,668) is similar to December 2023 original advance report (709,890), which has been revised downward to current 703,256.

Even with all the revisions, today's release appears to be a sharp uptick from previous months, but still following a near flat line pattern, when factoring inflation.

Digging into the data... Sales advanced $6.806B from previous month. $4.703B was in the autos, a rebound from previous month, due to cyber attacks.

That leaves $2.103B. The downward revision from previous two months of -$1.636B and upward revision of April (+$0.010B) leaves a net gain of $477M.

That explains away about 93% of that "stellar" report.

Not exactly sure how that qualifies as stellar, but okay, what's done is done... until next month's round of revisions.

 

PPI August 2024 release with July 2024 Data

The BLS has released the August, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of July.  (historical releases)

The forecast was +2.3% year over year. Which can be done by rounding down +2.27%, and voila +2.2%... or softer than forecast. The month to month was forecast at +0.2%, which can be achieved by revising the months of March, through June... UPWARD. 

Using the prior month's published data and comparing to this month... yields an advance of +0.18% which could be rounded down to +0.1%. 

It is not uncommon for data to be revised, which is why I download all the reports. I do get suspicious, but can prove nothing.

So (with all revisions)...

Feel free to review last month's blog and check for the revisions. Hint: June was 144.402.

All in all, it was still a good report, but expectations should be tempered in my opinion. The report card with the +2.27% rounded to nearest tenth.

There were winners and losers in the report, but some areas remain sticky. Here's something to chew on... Food was up +0.6% for last month, and energy was up +1.9%. TRADE was down -1.3%, which is where the services decline gets mentioned. 

That latter strikes me as being odd, as imports are heating up, as evidenced by container pricing and rush to U.S. ports... ahead of a potential dock strike at end of September. 

Just saying, not every thing is rosy!

Advance Retail Sales Report- July 16, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023. Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Hard to keep up with the revisions, but here they are (click, to enlarge)...

It doesn't take much effort to see before revisions, the nominal figure is akin to the advance of September, 2023. 

However, when adjusted for inflation...

The quantity of goods is flat. Looking at the 12 month moving average, based on inflation adjustments... current is below, and has been for all of 2024.

Not sure where the good news, regarding growth... is to be found. Granted, it has not fallen off a cliff, but "real" growth is not to be found in this report, imho.

There were winners on the month and year, highlighted in green, with losers in red, with all numbers in nominal dollars (thousands).

Clearly, gasoline stations would show a nominal dollar drop, with decrease in pump prices. Food services and drinking places continues to increase.

PPI July 2024 release with June 2024 Data

The BLS has released the July, 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of June.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. [emphasis added]

The report card is similar to last month's.

Product detail: Over 60 percent of the June decrease in the index for final demand goods can be traced to a 5.8-percent decline in prices for gasoline. The indexes for processed poultry, residential electric power, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and fresh and dry vegetables also moved lower. Conversely, prices for chicken eggs increased 55.4 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas and for aluminum base scrap also advanced.

Considering the drop off of energy, which was largely seasonal for gasoline... it is difficult to imagine inflation is dead. Couple that with the overall being the highest 12 month reading since March 2023, that notion of inflation being alive still persists imho.

 

Advance Retail Sales Report- June18, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $703.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above May 2023. Total sales for the March 2024 through May 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2024 to April 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Wow... even with the typical downward revisions of previous months... the number barely moves upward.

When adjusted for inflation...

For sake of comparison, the current inflation adjusted retail sales is the lowest since February, 2021.

The biggest losers on year to year and monthly are home furnishings, building material and garden supplies. 

Mail order stores continue to gain, along with miscellaneous stores.

It was not a great report, but not a disaster. More in the lines of stagnant, imho. 

PPI June 2024 release with May 2024 Data

The BLS has released the May, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

The May decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.8-percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services were unchanged in May following a 0.5-percent increase in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2 percent.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.4% year to year, is the same as last month, which was the highest since April, 2023. Food continued to edge down. It has not edged down at the consumer level, but fingers crossed.

Certainly some tempering of inflation, but there have been periods of tempering before.

As for the overall report card, there were some areas of concern in the PPI report, with services still holding the line.

Not sure how another monthly decline of -0.2% will take place. Flat maybe, with another +2.2% annual reading.

In any case, we had a -0.2% decline, following last month's +0.5% increase, which happened to be the highest y/y increase since April, 2022, and is matched by this release at +2.2%, as well.

The enthusiasm over inflation's demise, might be a bit premature, imho.

5/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for April Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.2 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, but up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above April 2023. Total sales for the February 2024 through April 2024 period were up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2024 to March 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from March 2024, but up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.5 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 5.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from April 2023.

WOW! The revisions were substantial and long term...

Can't remember such a sea of downward revisions.

The result, when adjusted for inflation...

Whatever the reasons for the downward revisions, the trend line for actual purchases, when adjusted for inflation is slipping downward.

There clearly is a demand drop, but whether due to inflation causing budgets to tighten... who really knows.

It should be noted the following groupings, do seem to be waning on both annual and month to month...

• Furniture and home furniture stores
• Health and personal care stores
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical etc.

For whatever reason, we do seem to be cutting back in some areas.

 

PPI MAY 2024 release April 2024 Data

The BLS has released the April, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in March and advanced 0.6 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest increase since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

Nearly three-quarters of the April advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 0.6-percent increase in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.4 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4 percent in April after rising 0.2 percent in March. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.1 percent, the largest advance since climbing 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

PPI Final Demand...

The 2.2% rise on year to year, increased from last month and is the new highest since April, 2023. The rise was tempered by a drop in energy prices, and best of all... food. The latter showing the first decrease in 3 months, after sharp increases. We will wait and see how that is reflected in grocery store prices.

Despite the slight rise year over year, the troubling part is month over month, which reversed last month's pullback. +0.5% v -0.1%.

The where can be found in the detailed report. If the month to month was +0.5%, look for the areas more than that figure, to determine the inflationary pressures.

4/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for March Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above March 2023. Total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2024 to February 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024, and up 3.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from March 2023.

The previous two months were revised upward. Here is the revision history...

The inflation adjusted retail sales...

Taking a look at retail sales (current dollars), with inflation adjusted (real dollars Feb. 2020).

The orange dots is the inflation adjusted, the line has been consistently just below the 600,000 mark (in millions)

Another comparison would be inflation adjusted as well.

Sales when adjusted for inflation, has remained relatively flat, after the recovery from covid, and vaccine rollout, plus stimulus. The timing for this, coupled with major issues in container transportation... resulted in the transitory phase of inflation.

Quite a good argument can be made the "transitory" inflation was exported, due to ocean going shipping problems. Of course, by mid to late 2021, energy became a predominant factor, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy issues. By that time, inflation became everywhere.

This month's report was pretty darn stellar, given the upward revisions of the previous two months. The standout was electronic shopping and mail order houses, which account for 17.3% of the total, but was a 45.4% of the overall annual gains, with the monthly rise being 64.7% of the total monthly gain.

There are problem areas, however. 

But we can take a good report, without muddying up the picture. At least in my humble opinion.

PPI APR. 2024 release March 2024 Data

The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent.

Now for a graph and chart...

As stated, the 2.1% is the highest final demand number since April 2023. There seems to be some quibbling over that number, as related to gasoline prices. I should point out the "preliminary" tag on many items. So we can expect some more adjustments in those months.

I have read where the final demand would have been 2.4%, had the gasoline been correctly attributed. I don't think the annual would have seen that. However, the monthly figure is indeed laughable, and should have been near last month's figure.. 

The final demand is creeping up, which is troubling. Even more troubling is the final demand for food, which popped a healthy +0.8% on the month, which follows +1.1% for the previous month. Chew on that for awhile.

 

PPI Mar. 2024 release February 2024 Data

The BLS has released the February, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023.

In February, nearly two-thirds of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand goods, which advanced 1.2 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.6 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

Current graph with revisions...

Then there is this chart, which briefly compares the category to previous month's annual rate.

So the report was deemed as troubling, as it will be passed on to the consumer. No doubt inflation is not down to the level sought, but not a rapid acceleration. More of tepid acceleration in my opinion.

3/14/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for February Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, February Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2023. Total sales for the December 2023 through February 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.1 percent (±0.4 percent).

Of course the previous 2 months were revised downward...

The result in inflation adjusted sales, looked like this...

Since the pre-covid timing, the inflation report...

The average for the monthly sales starting from March 2021...

The trend is undeniably downward. 

It's not all gloom and doom, as there are areas seemingly on the uptick. Read the report and download the data, to see those areas.

 

PPI Feb. 2024 release January 2024 Data

The BLS has released the January, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.8 percent in July 2023. In January, most of the advance is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which climbed 0.8 percent. The index for final demand trade services moved up 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 0.4 percent. 

Product detail: A 2.2-percent increase in the index for hospital outpatient care was a major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling, machinery and equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, traveler accommodation services, and legal services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for long-distance motor carrying decreased 1.0 percent. The indexes for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing and for engineering services also moved lower. (See table 2.)

I emphasized a specfic portion. after much jockeying with revisions of numbers in the medical category over the past year... those have come to and end. So after all these revision helped tamp down inflation numbers, those days are over.

The headlines have focused on how the PPI report came in hotter than expected. I wonder if the expectations are real or some hope of immediate relief in those interest rates. It is coming, just not tomorrow. 

2/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for January Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, January Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* above January 2023. Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).

Cutting through the malarkey...

After revising the November numbers down by -0.4%, and December numbers downward by -1.4%, we still end up with January sales down by -0.8%, from December.  With inflation for the past 12 months at 3.1%, sales were only up +0.6%.

Granted the graph above, is a bit busy, but the retail sales, adjusted for inflation appear to be flat.

Looking at the average monthly sales (adjusted for inflation) since March, 2021... is provided in this graph.

Even better is this inflation adjusted graph starting in February, 2020.

Once past the initial vaccine rollout, coupled with massive stimulus checks, it quickly petered out, then rising into early 2022, then early 2023 saw a slow and steady decline.

As for the data in the report, there was a striking difference between adjusted and unadjusted numbers.

The unadjusted numbers were across the board for monthly sales, with adjusted showing only a very few instances of sales increases... with neither being inflation adjusted. 

When checking individual categories for adjusted numbers, and factoring inflation... only 3 indicated any improvement. 

• Furniture and home furnishings
• Grocery stores (just barely)
• Food services and drinking places.

No doubt next month's report will be stellar, once all the downward revision from previous months take place. (LOL!)