Time to Reflect on My Grocery Hoarding.

I haven't reviewed my overall results and status for bit, so here goes. But am I really a hoarder. I wasn't early on, but became one. 

Early on, I found myself scrambling, just to keep certain things in supply. Obviously toilet paper was an issue and I even ordered from God knows where. Many paper products were not to be found on the shelves and on line ordering became the go to source. 

Even on line was bereft of many of these items. Staples such as a variety of beans, as well as other pantry items were not to be found. Granted, I was picky about brand, etc. but still it was quite a challenge. Even distilled water disappeared from shelves and led me to distilling my own... with limited success. 

By fall of 2020, the shortages seemed to have eased up. I was using curbside for groceries from 2 different stores and was still coming up with "out of stock" on numerous items. For example the T.P. orders were for different quantities and was very hit and miss... until one week, all quantities from both stores were in the basket. I stopped ordering curbside on the same day, as the vehicle was absolutely full. About 18 months of T.P. and I could wipe that from the list for awhile.

The pantry items started rolling in as well. I built some shelves in the den and began piling up the goods. By end of 2020, I was well supplied.

Here it is, middle of 2022 and I am still hoarding, but have long since began reducing volumes in storage. I am about half of where I was in late 2020, with more to go.

In 2020, people were hoarding because of Covid, but it would appear that inflation is now in the driver's seat, with people starting to buy pantry items before the price goes up. 

Where do I stand? I will continue to back off the storage and really see no purpose to stockpiling. I understand the concern of food "shortages" being a possibility... but the cynic in me suggests this could be a bit of fearmongering for the USA, although not for certain regions of the world. Besides, I have been hoarding fat for years and it might not hurt to reduce that bit of buildup. 

I think the food "shortage" will most likely be food insecurity and that could be worrying, as prices of basic commodities rise out of range of many people. 

End of the Month... March 2022 PCE, Advance GDP, and Other Stuff.

With the PCE index report this morning, we can wrap up all the March inflation numbers. Granted, some slight improvement was seen in some areas, but still double digit increases on the upstream models seem to suggest more inflation to the consumer.

As mentioned last month, the core seems to be decelerating and the potential for further decreases appear on the horizon. A lot depends on China's current covid lockdowns and impact on the supply chain.

We also see the personal income and outlays for March. Note the current dollars and chained dollars. Chained dollars are only used in a couple of categories. So thrown in inflation and the numbers aren't exactly rosy.

Yesterday the GDP Advance 2022 1st quarter was released and failed to live up to expectations. Quite a bit was made about Consumers still lifting the economy and the trade gap really stifling the numbers. As for the consumers, the bulk of that lift was in the service sector as the goods sector was flat. The Services was up 1.0% quarter to quarter and the trade gap was down 1.4% quarter to quarter. Outside of those two, everything else was tepid, imo. Although Non-Residential Fixed Investment was 2.2% above previous quarter. 

One quarter does not a recession make, so the numbers could significantly change as more data becomes available. 

Of course, the books are now closing for March, and it is on to April numbers. So, the impact of China's covid shutdown policies will become evident real soon, the "official" impact won't begin to be known until June. 

As for consumer inflation for April, I would tend to believe that energy would be flat from March. Don't be misled, as gasoline appears to be edging up at this writing as well as Natural Gas. Core inflation might be decelerating a bit, but food does not appear to be decelerating. Overall, the CPI should "cool" to near 8.0%. Welcome to the late 70s and early 80s of last century.

The U.S. should once again become a net exporter, for the year, of Petroleum and Petroleum Products over the next few weeks, as the exports have ballooned to nearly a 1-million-barrel net exports on a daily average. That million-barrel daily release from the SPR is slated to begin May 1st.

Oh well, this is "fun" times we live in!

Other Stuff...

It amazes me in this day and age... how utterly devoid of knowledge, we Americans have become. Although I can find numerous instances where we are not alone in knowledge deficit.

A near direct quote "Our politicians are always promising to fund infrastructure, yet here we are in 2022 and they have done nothing", which is greeted with broad agreement. Apparently we must all forget Congress passing a $1.4 Trillion infrastructure bill and the President signing it on November 15, 2021.

Usually during this conversation, someone will mention that Trillion Dollar shovel ready infrastructure bill signed by Obama in 2009... and ask what ever happened to that? It never existed. There was a $787 billion stimulus bill, which included about $98 billion for infrastructure, of which a portion was for shovel ready.

We have become equally adept at ignoring stuff that happens and making up stuff that didn't happen.

There really is no hope, so why bother? Everyone slows down to see a car crash or a train wreck or any number of other such things. 

End of the Month... So February 2022 Inflation Numbers and Other Stuff.

 

With the PCE index report this morning, we can wrap up all the February inflation numbers. Granted, some slight improvement was seen in some areas, but still double digit increases on the upstream models seem to suggest more inflation to the consumer.

There does seem to be some potential for deceleration in core inflation, as decreased purchasing power is becoming more widespread. Inventories of retail and wholesale have increase ahead of inflation. Normally this could be seen as wonderful news, but it is hard to keep a straight face over lingering claims of supply chain shortages and increases in inventories, in my opinion. 

We all know that supply v demand is the determinant of pricing. If demand goes up and supply can't keep up... prices increase. Demand falls and supply increases... prices decrease. The past year saw demand pumped up with various stimulus checks and which contributed to "supply chain" issues. The benefit of that additional money is waning as retail sales minus inflation are flat to lower. Even more so with energy and food pulled from the equation.

As stated, core items might fall in the coming months, but what about energy and food?

Energy is struggling to supply to meet the demand. Regardless of any Strategic Petroleum Reserve activity... the demand will need to decrease for price relief. Going into the summer driving season, I am not so sure that will take place before August. Besides, that 1-million-barrel daily release will likely be exported, which may have impact on global prices, which may in turn trickle down to the US Consumer... eventually. We must remember the previous release announced last fall has not yet been completed. The 30 Million barrel release announced in March has not started, so just how quick will this happen?

Maybe in time for the midterms, but then you have the other headline issue...

Food, which accounts for about 14% of the Average American expense, compared to 8% for energy (>4% for Gasoline). Food is the one item that rarely sees a decline in demand and usually an increase as the global population is still growing. It really is all about supply and weather impacts of the past couple of years has NOT been conducive to slowing food price inflation. Throw in the Ukraine invasion and this is not an area that will likely seen any leveling off unless we get a good global weather pattern for crops and peace breaks out quick in war torn areas. 

Food is likely to be the issue for the next couple of years. A case could be made that Russia invaded Ukraine to control its large agriculture industry, to which it could use as influence amongst its friends, etc. Whatever the reason, it has clearly backfired, and the global community will become increasingly unsettled over food insecurity.

We will likely see the CPI in the mid 8% range in March's report and higher the following month. Much will be made about the high price of gasoline, but the food component is the real long-term story.

Forget the Oscars, as inflation is about to give us all a slap in the face. 

Near End of the Month, So January 2022 Inflation Numbers and Other Stuff.

 

ALL the inflation numbers are in and they are pointing upward, with the exception of PPI, which was flat. But the leading indicators of PPI are still in double digits. 

Quite a bit of chatter regarding energy prices and how they will ramp up inflation. There is no denying that, but every single number that excludes food and energy is up as well. Don't be misled by headlines screaming energy costs are going to cause double digit inflation. 

We might very well see double digit inflation, but if everything stays flat and energy were to drive up the overall inflation... then crude would need to be in the $180 @ bbl. We will be in recession, well before that occurs. Energy is a part of inflation, but not the entire story. Attempting to backward blame inflation on solely energy and current geo-politics, is to ignore the inflation prior to these events.

Those inflation factors are still prevalent and really no let up going forward the next couple of months. Previously the inflation was anticipated to peak in February (numbers due out in March), but those energy related and geo-political issues might edge up succeeding months. We were in the May/June timeframe of any year over year relief... which is prior to certain current events.

There is talk of the FED backing off rate hikes but maybe a bit premature. Granted the FED is looking for any excuse to avoid lifting rates, but they are behind the curve, so will raise rates, to make room for lowering them later on. 

As for Ukraine... they are not a member of the EU or of NATO, but a member of the UN. 30+ years ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, which was also a member of the UN. A coalition was quickly and rapidly formed to kick Iraq out. Kuwait had oil, Ukraine not so much. 

Not sure how this thing will turn out, but it will soon become old news and everyone will move on. That is the sad state of things. There will be a period of media pictures and videos of bombs exploding, missiles being launched, but then this will become boring and no longer a driver of news ratings. 

Not unlike Covid, which still has a high death rate, but somehow is cured... at least to the extent it does not make more than a ripple in the news. Everyone is racing to get back to normal, which means accepting certain unpleasant facts. 

Currently the forecast for February CPI numbers (Due out in March 10th) stands in the range of 7.63% to 7.9%. 7.62% was the annual rate in February 1982. January 1982 was 8.39%.

Maybe Time for a Hoarding Update and Some General Trivia!

I should start by pointing out that I am starting this blog on 1-16-2022. At this time, I am sitting here, awaiting the big storm Izzy to descend upon us. No worries, as I have no need to leave the house until 1-31-22 and maybe not then, as I have become quite the hoarder. The only issue would be a prolonged loss of power, which should not be such a worry in my community.

1-19... There are apparently, a number of storms likely to cycle through the region over the next couple of weeks, so just need to hunker down. Have ordered the covid tests, but not sure if we will use them or need them anytime soon. Of course, it sounds like we won't get them anytime soon as well. 

1-21... Checking the 2 week weather outlook and it seems to indicate prolonged colder than normal temps, with bouts of snowfall. Nothing is set in stone, so I'll keep checking. Typically order groceries for pickup on Wednesday's and Thursdays. 

This may seem odd, considering the first paragraph, but while I have stored a good amount of groceries and can claim starvation is not in the cards... there are certain food groups that don't store well over time. Such as veggies, fruits, etc. 

On one social websites I frequent, the following was posted... "there is a pasta shortage, as shipments from Italy cannot get into U.S. ports." This reminded me of the BBC show from the 50s, on an April Fool's broadcast... about spaghetti trees.

That is not to say we do not import some pasta from Italy, but it would be specialty brands, as most pasta is made in the USA. It was good for a laugh at least.

There are many nuggets of humor to be found on these websites, as long as you look for the humor, instead of looking to criticize. Shaking your head in disbelief and then having a good laugh is probably the best medicine. 

November PCE, 12-23-2021

 

The Commerce Department released the latest CPE information. This concludes the inflation information that I track... for the month of November. 5.7% PCE; PCE EX-F&E at 4.7% and trimmed mean PCE at 3.5%. All numbers are above October data.

There is really no surprise, and the latest numbers simply affirm what is already widely known, so has been rather mildly reported. Especially the relationship between PCE and the Federal Reserve's reliance on that information.

The FED has already mentioned what they might do, but haven't done anything, other than reducing bond buying... which is the key point. 

As for me, the MPI is my gauge and I suspect it will go up for the December report to about 5.1% annual and 0.4% on the month.

Forecasts for CPI-U range from -0.3% to +0.4% for December and year to year between 6.7% and 7.1%. I suspect we are nearing the end of peak y/y numbers and should look closer at month to month in the upcoming reports.

OMICRON

Omicron is spreading very fast, according to news and data sites. While it appears to be much less severe than previous covid variants, the current CDC protocols for medical staff is quarantining for 7 days from testing positive from covid... any covid, mild or not. Considering how pervasive the omicron variant is, and the apparent weakness of vaccines and prior covid immunity are to the omicron variant, the likelihood of much higher infection rates exists. This would include the medical community.

As with any virus, certain portions of the population are more susceptible to serious illness and death and would require medical attention. Medical attention that might be restricted by its own members infections and requirement to quarantine.

The timing for getting sick and seeking medical attention might not be as good as current. Then think about all the various companies, schools, etc. that require testing and adhering to various protocols. Think about the grocery stores that look warily on employees sniffling and sneezing. 

Just sayin..

When Will the New Normal Settle In?

It seems everyone wants to know when this will end. The ideas being...  if covid were conquered or the supply chain crisis were resolved, as well as a host of others... things will get back to normal or at least a new normal. I guess we all want a bit of stability.

I'm not an expert in these matters, but like any red blooded knucklehead, I must tackle the question or get tackled back.

The biggest complaint seems to be inflation. I would suggest that the holidays could end the excessive consumer spending. I base the term excessive on the massive jump in durable and non-durable goods back in about April. Non-durables seem to be decelerating somewhat, although not rapidly. Of course many of these items can link back to imports and current port congestion.

I suspect this will begin to drop rather quickly in January. That might reduce the stress on the ports and some of the inland shipping. Maybe February for that part. 

As a result the ever escalating inflation trend might flatten out a bit. Note I said flatten out a bit... not drop. A lot of uncertainty regarding that. Just because the port congestion and inland shipping might be easing up at that point, does not mean the cost of what is being imported is going down. Not by a long shot, in my opinion. Granted the supply might outstrip some of the supply, but not every case. 

I really should bring up the 800lb gorilla that started this mess... Covid. As any good American, I tend to look at things American, without consideration of the rest of the globe. And Covid is a Global Pandemic. 

Best case scenario would be sometime next summer, the globe will have sufficiently wrestled the death rates to an acceptable level. It would be foolish to think it is going to be eradicated anytime soon. In the interim, there will continue to be stoppages in all manner of production, distribution amongst many of our trading partners.

This will continue create spot shortages, panic buying, hoarding, etc. I would expect food to be inflationary for another year, as weather related issues driving up costs, require another growing season. Energy is dependent on consumption, so not sure it will go much higher and could go lower... if consumption fell. A recession would certainly drive down the price and reduce inflation on many items... other than food.

Maybe, just maybe, a new type of normal will evolve, nearing New Year's Eve 2023.  

But then, that would assume no new variant crops up that is more transmissible or deadlier or vaccine resistant or some combination or even all.

Maybe the new normal is already here and we just need to adjust. [sigh] And a newer normal, one year from now... etc. 

Parsing Some Covid Disinformation

 

I probably should avoid the internet, but it is fascinating to see the disinformation, uninformed opinions, etc. So here goes...

SWEDEN

Sweden is constantly being used as an example of what the U.S. should have done and the results prove it. Generally it is used as being against lockdowns and pops up when discussing vaccinations. 

Indeed, Sweden's stats are better than the U.S. with regard to deaths and infections, but are deplorable when compared to its neighbors, Finland, Denmark, and Norway.

Sweden does have one thing in common with its neighbors, as it is now "opening" up. So something was taking place for it to now being opened up. Then there is the matter of vaccinations, which has Sweden well in front of the U.S. but lagging behind its neighbors. 

Would the Sweden method have even worked in the U.S. Granted we probably couldn't pick a Swede out from a group of Americans, but that does not mean we are alike. Swedes have been brought up differently than we. We might agree on some things, but would disagree on many others. They are a different culture. 

Apparently in Sweden, the political forces stood by and allowed the science to determine actions. There was no news media constantly parsing the scientific guidance, seeking to exploit any discrepancies. There was generally wide acceptance of scientific recommendations for social distancing and masking. Sweden can generally be considered as non litigious and finally the uptake of vaccines indicate an acceptance of its reliability. 

Frankly, the limited reading I have done regarding Sweden does not indicate we would go along with many of its actions, as we are an entirely different culture. Attempting to use Sweden as an example of what was done right in regards to shutdowns, omits that big difference in culture.  It would be akin to saying we could follow the Japanese example and have much lower deaths and infections. A totally different culture.

Safety of vaccines is not proven...

Every drug has side effects. Sildenafil was being developed for angina, until one of the side effects overwhelmed its original intent. It was then repurposed as... Viagra. 

In this area, the debacle during polio vaccine development seems to give credence to the shyness of some vaccine sceptics. This was the Cutter mess, where about 250 people were given polio by accident and died, when the vaccine contained live virus, instead of dead virus.

This instance appears to take precedence over the thousands and tens thousand of lives saved by the vaccine, not to mention the many tens of thousands of lives saved from the lifelong crippling effects. 

The point should be that the polio vaccine mistake was a live virus versus a dead virus. Nowhere in the current covid vaccines is there a covid virus... dead or alive. 

Of course it would be false to state  the current slate of Covid vaccines are 100% safe. There have been, and will likely continue to be instances of death and severe illnesses attributable to the vaccination. Some nations have restricted the use of some vaccines from portions of their population. These are not 3rd world countries. So some skepticism is warranted. 

The issue at hand is how many deaths and illnesses are related to covid infection compared to the deaths an illnesses from side effects. 

A fear of side effects is reasonable and should be approached carefully. However, I suspect much of the so called "disinformation" is being spread just for political purposes. Winnowing out that aspect of the discussion will prove very hard.

INDIA...

We all know that India had a dramatic rise in covid and deaths associated. Even the Indian authorities estimated the death count was significantly under reported. That happens when the system is overwhelmed. 

But did you know that everything improved and did you know that India used Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine? One would be led to believe there was a cure in the Trumpian world that was not being accepted by the Anti-Trumpian world AND that India knew best.

EXCEPT, India has dropped those drugs from the treatment list, due to ineffectiveness. There was no noticeable benefit and in some cases did more harm. It puzzles me that someone would doubt the safety of one drug (covid drug) and embrace one that fits the above description. 

SUMMARY

No doubt these and other claims will continue to recirculate via the internet and will be used by the unscrupulous to brainwash the weaker amongst us. That cuts both ways and as the sides became further entrenched in their beliefs, it will likely continue until this "thing" is finally resolved.

Which is likely not to happen before 2023, as there literally billions of global citizens that have not even been given the opportunity to choose sides. 

Until then, we have the folks that are truly concerned about a vaccine's impact on them, who are trying to seek input on the matter. There are those that have well intentioned advice from both sides of the debate. Then there are those whose "advice" is solely based on developing and creating converts to their ideology. Which is more likely due to their political affiliation, rather than concern for the individual.

Welcome to the 21st Century U.S.A.

Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

 

Courtesy of U.S.C.G.

We are awash in shipping containers, with railyards, rail lines, trucking companies, ports, harbors, etc. 

How did we get here and when will it end?

Covid did create a disruption and one the just-in-time inventory management system has struggled to adjust. It has taken about 35 years to develop what was a mostly very efficient, mostly smooth movement of goods. As this transition took place, the need for massive warehouses was reduced with the reduction of manpower required to keep those warehouses operating. 

As efficiency improved, the requirement for trucking, rails, etc. was also reduced... with the manpower required to maintain and operate. 

That was all and good, until Covid, which not only created shutdowns, uneven distribution, but also a massive shift in consumer spending habits. We had China nearly shutdown, which impacted industries and retailers in the U.S., which may or may not have taken advantage of impending goods shortages, to shutter operations for the good of their employees. This put a lot of stuff in the wrong place.

Then we had the so-called legitimate shutdowns, which were region by region and even county by county. A very uneven shutdown, to say the least. Then there was a very uneven re-opening, with some rushing to re-start, while others resisted these efforts. During all of this, there was a gigantic shift in consumer habits, which accelerated during all the stimulus period.

One only needs to look at the BEA's GDP numbers associated with good and services, and see a dramatic shift to goods, both durable and non-durable, with a sizable reduction in services. Goods have increased about 18% over 1st qtr. 2020, with about half being in 3rd qtr. 2020, holding steady in 4th, then accelerating in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2021.

In addition, the importation of goods followed a similar pattern, with about a 12% increase over that period. Such surges are difficult to prepare for, in such a short period of time. Essentially... Just-in-time has been erased for the foreseeable future.

Clearly, the system while not broken... is in disarray. There are glimmers of hope going forward. Here are a few articles that seem to be clearing the fog of misinformation, imo.

• Containers Piling Up At U.S. Rail Yards Add to Port Strains
• More truckers won't solve US port congestion, supply chain issues: Harbor Trucking Association CEO
• Rail freight is at the center of the supply chain crisis
• UP metering domestic intermodal out of Chicago, Memphis

Even recognition of TOO many containers (Lot of empties) as a problem and potential action by the State of California... by executive order of the Governor.

Everyone is trying to avoid being the Grinch that stole Christmas. Not to mention it is important to shift blame to the average person for leaving the workforce at this time and proclaim "worker" shortage. 

From the St. Louis FED... THE COVID RETIREMENT BOOM. 

So we made the system more efficient by reducing the workforce and now proclaim we need more workers. 

Good Luck!

Random Thoughts - 10-17-2021

Courtesy of CDC

Covid

It's been nearly 2 years, depending on the actual start. Here is some stats, courtesy of Our World in Data...

• 47.5% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
• 6.65 billion doses have been administered globally, and 20.44 million are now administered each day.
• Only 2.7% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

In the USA, we have achieved 68.4% fully vaccinated of persons 18 and over, per the CDC. 

Burrowing down, indicates my state (Kentucky) has 69.86% of that age groups full vaccinated. 

• The seven day average infection rate (KY) of 1, 932 compared to average daily rate from beginning of 1,265. 
• The seven day average death rate is 34, compared to average daily rate since the beginning of 16.

I eagerly anticipated the point where the 7 day death rate falls below the "since beginning" rate. 

The average age of infection and deaths has fallen since pre-vaccination, when the death rate was primarily over 60, with 92% of deaths above that range, with above 80 counting over half of deaths, 70~80 was about 1/4 and 60~70 was about 1/7. The average age was approximately 78, with infection's average age at 44. 

Since the start, the average age of death is now 74 and infections at 40, with the 7-day age of death at 66 and infection at 37.

The good news if such a thing is possible... both infections and deaths are dropping rather fast. However, this is a global pandemic and until that low income vaccination rate above improves... another wave of some new variant is not out of the realm of possibilities. 

The WHO has decried wealthier countries with plentiful vaccine access are...

Hoarding

Tis true, but food hoarding is starting to crop up... and I don't mean just in my pantry. There are countries that are net exporters of food and countries that are net importers. Whether you believe in climate change is irrelevant at this specific point in time. Weather has wreaked havoc on food importing AND exporting countries. Importing regions such as large swaths of heavily populated countries in Asia and most of Africa

The extent is some countries are beginning to limit exports, due to their own needs, just as countries that import are facing reduced crops. 

While it is likely food shortages will occur in some areas, much higher prices will be likely for all. It is no different than natural gas, petroleum, coal, etc. 

While I have received my booster shot and have a full to overflowing pantry, does not mean I am immune to the potential of societal breakdown on a global scale. If it comes, it will be due to a dearth of leadership. It is what fills that void, that is the worry. 

Of course, I am probably over reacting and everything is hunky dory!

It's All in the Name... Comirnaty/Pfizer!!!

 

Madness is rampant and when a politico says maddening things, then how can one reasonably expect the populace to act differently?

I can't remember exactly where I read it, but suspect I know where (I do read across the political spectrum). As I am not 100% certain, all will remain nameless. Of course, I may have hallucinated the entire thing, as the idea a U.S. Senator would be so loopy as to defy imagination... almost. 

It would seem a nameless Senator questioned whether the Pfizer Drug has really been fully approved for use in the U.S. As I understand it, the Pfizer Vaccine is now called Comirnaty. So it might be technically correct, after a fashion, that the Senator could be correct.

However, there is nothing different except the name. Imagine the U.S. deciding to change the name of a dollar bill to something like turkey gobbler bills. The turkey gobbler bills are now being printed and will say one turkey gobbler. In the interim, the dollar bills will still be treated and exchanged the same as the new turkey gobbler bills.

I had a friend that once asked to borrow 20 bucks, I gave him 20 dollars. Later he said "here is the 20 bucks I owe you". I took it and never gave it a thought. 

So really no difference... a buck is still a buck or a rose is still a rose, whatever!! I would, however, suggest that Pfizer made a sad choice in the drug name. I can't help mixing it with comoriarity which associates with the villain in Sherlock Holmes. 

Both Holmes and Moriarity were much smarter than I, but they were also fictitious characters. Perhaps the idea of all Senators being smart is also a work of fiction. Comirluminati???

The Sky is falling!

Sulphur Dioxide is making news in Europe. Apparently the volcanic eruptions spewing lava into the ocean is saturating the atmosphere. I spent the better part of an hour researching Sulphur Dioxide. I found out it makes breathing difficult and causes people that eat a lot of healthy vegetables... burp. I really need to burp more and simultaneously avoid breathing Sulphur Dioxide!!! Oh yeah, it also causes acid rain. 

That's about all I can come up with for now.

The Good Ole Days Are Back!!?

 

Image by confused_me from Pixabay

Not really, but the PCE headline of highest inflation in 30 years, conjured back to a time 30 years ago when the PCE was the lowest it had been in awhile. It's all about the point of view or context or whatever.

A rational point of view...

Justice Kavanaugh tested positive for covid and is asymptomatic. Which brings me to why I am posting here. My old haunts have become so hateful and divided, some are wishing him the most horrible things. There are clearly some things far worse than Covid, imo.

United Kingdom...

The U.K is still experiencing petrol shortages and is still saying there is plenty of Petrol and to stop hoarding and purchase normally. Never mind the public had been purchasing normally, when the shortages began and nothing has really been changed.

Glad I live in a country where the leaders are always on the lookout for their citizens' best interest. ROFLMAO, c'mon... everyone could use a good laugh.

Debt Ceiling...

I read where Janet Yellen is proposing elimination of the "debt ceiling". May as well, as it always gets raised after much haggling back and forth. I get the idea of limiting increased debt, but each party drags their feet when the other is in power, etc. All in all, the debt just keeps on rapidly rising.

Problems with gas...

I see where China has ordered their energy companies to get supplies at any cost. At some point that has to be passed on to the customers, or the government (banks, etc) is stepping in to assist at any cost. It may not be passed on to the Chinese public, but likely to exporters. I wonder who that would be? Look out!

In addition, I read the price of natural gas is akin to $190 a barrel of oil, before this mad dash by China. Those kind of numbers would put a serious crimp in the economy, imo. How can coal prices be nearly double anything over the past 10 years, if we are moving away from coal? Oh wait... the Global consumption of Coal is not slated to start dropping until around 2030. So much for those Climate Change targets.

I owe, I owe, so off to work I go...

The U.S. International Net Position was released by the Federal Reserve. It ain't good...

It has rapidly deteriorated since last quarter. This can't end well. Of course I won't end well either, it is just which doesn't end well first. WHEW!!!

Not a lot else comes to mind and it is Friday afternoon. Back in to good old days meant the weekend was nigh. It's just another day for an old retired guy. BUT I was 30 years younger, 30 years ago and that is better than where I am now. Ugh!

Another Month Gone By.

How time flies...Here it is the last day of September.

Completed the weekly curbside grocery thing, which begins on Wednesday with Walmart and concludes on Thursday with Kroger. There are certain things that are only from one or the other. Then there are the things that maybe Walmart doesn't currently have and Kroger does. 

The pantries are full and it is down to replacement items and the perishables. I suspect I am not the only hoarder of pantry items, as they seem to be more difficult to order. Is it due to hoarding or due to supply chain issues.

Everything is blamed on supply chain issues and we are told to buy normally, as there are plenty of supplies. Unfortunately, there is a shortage of something, then the news of that shortage, then hoarding that exacerbates the shortage and then the politicos telling us to buy normally.

I seem to recall that scenario playing out in the U.K. recently and currently on going. People were buying petrol (gas, gasoline) normally and forecourts (gas stations) started running out of petrol. 

The forecourts running out due to lack of lorry (truck) drivers splashed across the news groups and predictably... the surge was on. Naturally the politicos admonished everyone for hoarding petrol, while simultaneously acknowledging the shortage of lorry drivers, while advising people to purchase normally. Normally is what caused some of those forecourts to run out of petrol in the first place... exposing a system problem. 

Naturally the Petrol lorry driver shortage morphed into acknowledgement of an overall lorry driver shortage across damn near everything. Ooops... that item out of stock and awaiting the next lorry delivery became something more worrying. No surprise really.

It has become almost normal for nothing to happen until a crisis occurs. When that crisis is resolved everyone seems to pat themselves on the back and then sit idly by until the next crisis. I understand the political gain from managing a crisis vs preventing a crisis. 

No one notices the crisis prevention activity or the individuals involved in preventing a crisis. Generally, they are disregarded. Oh but those people that get involved in resolving a crisis are to be revered. Never are they punished for their role in allowing the crisis to arise.

In any such case, we currently have a supply chain crisis in the U.S. It is actually multiple crises over a great swath of transportation systems. All of which are quite willing to deflect blame to others as to how the crisis began. Thus, at some point in the future, all will be resolved and people will claim their labor produced this magnificent resolution. 

Of course any reflection will be smoothed over and any attempt to determine the cause while it is still on going will be deflected with... "now is not the time to place blame, that can come later".

Has anyone ever lived long enough to see that "later"? Later is always at some point in time, when those crisis management types have moved on, etc. Which is too late.

So kudos to those that prevent crises and manage to keep my hoarding pantry full. To all those that are working diligently, behind to scenes to keep things going.

Getting Those Covid Boosters

My wife and I got our Pfizer covid boosters yesterday. Arms a bit sore, but nothing unusual. I guess we can wait a couple of weeks for a ramp up in antibodies and then charge out into the public...

But then we really don't care to do that, as the hermit life has become quite a comfortable way to go. Why go out into the public and put up with all the nonsense that seems to be taking place.

We got our shots at a Kroger Pharmacy and our original 2 doses in public settings, but other than that have only been inside medical facilities since May of 2020.

We are all stocked up on food, other than perishables and if forced could get by for a couple of months, possibly more. 

I have noticed that some of the frequently used items are becoming more difficult to get via curbside. Not sure if they are in store and most people I would ask about this... are also curbside shopping. 

That's it for now.