BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 12, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.2 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2022 to September 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.1-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

I added emphasis to the decrease.

Graph time...

I suppose the good news... the Real Hourly is still +2¢ above pre covid, and down -2¢ from last month.

Real Weekly is +$2.08 above pre-covid, but down -71¢ from last month, AND... down -$1.10 from July.

The working stiffs are 14¢ above pre-covid on an hourly basis, yet down -1¢ from previous month, as well as down -7¢ from July.

The working stiffs are $5.43 above pre-covid on a weekly basis, yet down -59¢ from last month, and down -$2.45 from July.

The bad news, is all areas had a setback in inflation adjusted earnings in September. Let's hope that does not continue.

This closes out my publication of this data, although I will continue tracking. I'll just keep my thoughts to myself... unless I can't help myself.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - September 13, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2022 to August 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.3-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

The report was a bit of setback in earnings, as the hourly rate fell -5¢. It is up +2¢ somce February 2020.

Weekly earnings decline -38¢ from last month, although up +95¢ from February 2020.

The above charts include all categories of workers.

Now for the production and non supervisory...

This category saw a drop of -6¢ per hour, although still +15¢ above February 2020.

Weekly is a bit different...

2 consecutive months of decline, although not a trend at this point. Down -89¢ on the month, although still +$6.02 above February, 2020.

I do remember last month being hailed as proof of something. I forget what it was, but this month is also proof of something. Can't wait to hear the spin on this... if it even crops up in the news cycle.

That gasoline index, cited in August as being below last August... is true. Per AAA, the average for August 2022 was $3.97 and this year at $3.84. BUT, September of 2022 averaged $3.73 and thus far this month is $3.82 and current trading indicate today's national average of $3.85... is heading north of $4 very soon. 

I guess reviewing today's crude report is next on the agenda.

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... August 10, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4  percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings were essentially unchanged over the month due to the change in real  average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek. 

The following graphs include data back to pre-covid. This is essential information, as Covid sent many home from the workplace, and many did not have the option of "zoom" etc. The result being many lower income wage earners got left out of the data, which distorted the information results.

As employment is near pre covid numbers, the past "few" months, compared to February, 2022, becomes a more accurate picture, imho. Additionally, these numbers are inflation adjusted, so a real increase has taken place. Not much, but that has been the story for quite a number of years.

The rundown...

While earnings have improved and employment appears solid, it does not mean storm clouds aren't gathering. Whether the glass is half full or half empty... TBD.

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... July 12, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.5 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, from June 2022 to June 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.6-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Generally speaking, real income growth has about matched pre-Covid, per the graphs below.

But first, as usual, a few notes about the graphs and underlying data, especially #2 and #3, which seem to fall into the political rhetoric arena....

1. These hourly and weekly figures are in 1982~1984 dollars, so that inflationary impact can be easily seen. The $11.03 per hour in the first graph would be $33.34 per hour in today's dollars. 
2. Much is made about the decrease in hourly wages, but some easy explanation... We can all remember when covid shut everything down, and people were sent home. Some kept working at their jobsite or from home. 
3. Many others went home without a job. A lot of those were lower wage employees, which skewed the hourly and weekly rates upward, until those employees slowly returned to work.
4. I have January, 2020 (pre-covid) on each graph, so that comparisons can be made to current. Also, the unemployment rate then and now are very similar. 

A 3¢ an hour gain since pre-covid. Considering "real" earnings is adjusted for inflation, this can be considered a positive.

Real weekly earnings finally pulled ahead of pre-covid levels. This is good news and hopefully continues.

Then there is what I refer to as the average person categories...

The hourly rate is 2% above pre-covid.

This category is 2.2% above pre-covid. This is the best news of the day and doesn't seem to get any attention. 

Oh well... on to today's energy reports. 

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... June 13, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from April to May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek. 

Generally speaking, real income growth has about matched pre-Covid, per the graphs below.

But first, a few notes...

• These hourly and weekly figures are in 1982~1984 dollars, so that inflationary impact can be easily seen. The $11.03 per hour in the first graph would be $33.34 per hour in today's dollars. 
• Much is made about the decrease in hourly wages, but some easy explanation... We can all remember when covid shut everything down, and people were sent home. Some kept working at their jobsite or from home. 
• Many others went home without a job. A lot of those were lower wage employees, which skewed the hourly and weekly rates upward, until those employees slowly returned to work.
• I have January, 2020 (pre-covid) on each graph, so that comparisons can be made to current. Also, the unemployment rate then and now are very similar. 

 

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... May 10, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.5 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from April 2022 to April 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.1-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

 Now for some charts...

This chart indicates the hourly earnings are back to December wages, which is one penny below February, 2020.

The following chart indicates 8¢ a week below Feb, 2020.

Up 14¢ an hour...

Up $5.52 weekly, from Feb. 2020.

As real wages are not yet back to Feb. 2020 levels, and is not keeping up with inflation... it is hard to imagine the claim that labor is causing inflation. In some sectors, but not overall, imho.

 

 

Real Earnings: April Release of March 2023 Data

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report. 

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from March 2022 to March 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.6-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Now for some comparison graphs, dating back to February 2020, or pre-covid. It is important to compare to that date, as the rates were distorted with all the layoffs early on. Remember... A lot of people were working from home, etc. A lot of people did not have that option.

The above rate is still a shade below February 2020.

The above rate is still a shade below February 2020.

The above rate is 14¢ higher than February 2020.

The above rate is $6.50 higher than February 2020.

It is better than losing ground, but not sure it is a sign of "real" progress.

Real Earnings report, March Reports 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.4 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings decreased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from February 2022 to February 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.9-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

As always, I compare to February, 2020... or just prior to that "thing." As a reminder, the lower end of the wage scale got sent home and/or had jobs that were not of the work from home variety. Thus, a massive jump at the beginning of the "thing", which tapered earnings downward as the lower income groups re-entered the workforce, or as it became clear they were also essential.

The following chart indicates, down -5¢, and down from last month.

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The following chart (weekly) indicates -46¢ and down two straight months.

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The following chart, indicates +11¢, hourly and up from last month, but below 2 months ago.

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The following chart, indicates a weekly gain of +$5.54, but down from last month.

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In summation, the report again, indicates earnings are treading water. 

Real Earnings report, February Reports 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.5 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.7 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.9-percent increase in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings decreased 1.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from January 2022 to January 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.5-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Treading water is the best way to describe the earnings report. The hourly rate is -3¢ lower than February 2020, with the weekly earnings at $2.45 more.

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I use February 2020, as the baseline. Everything thereafter was distorted by the type of jobs available, etc. 

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Real Earnings are adjusted for inflation. The question remains... what is the inflation outlook?

CPI DATA and Real Earnings, January Reports 2023

The BLS report was released this morning and it was within target range. (historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes. The food index increased 0.3 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.2 percent. The energy index decreased 4.5 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined; other major energy component indexes increased over the month.

Much is made of the CPI decline over the past six months, but there is a recurring theme...

The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting... [insert item]

My CPI continues to improve...

Hourly earnings have just about caught up with pre covid earnings. Real Earnings

It is now a mere 1¢ below February 2020 level per hour. Weekly earnings are still -$1.30 to February 2020. Almost there.

Pump prices have leveled off. Other energy prices will level off very soon. Both will start to rise going forward into the summer months.

Core inflation has been mainly in check for the past three months due to adjustments in the medical area, as well as a continuing slide in used car prices. The Medical adjustments were a 4th quarter one and-done. The used car slide may continue.

Maybe I am a cup-half-empty guy, but I don't see inflation returning to acceptable levels before the fall. 

However, a recession might bring it down faster.  

CPI DATA and Real Earnings, December Reports 2022

The BLS report was released this morning and it was a surprise. (historical releases) It came in substantially under the forecast by everyone.

Last month, I projected this...

Range of 7.6%~7.9%. Sure things are moderating, but can we count on further reductions in Electricity, Utility (piped) gas service, apparel, Used cars and trucks, and Medical Care services? 

The answer to the question is yes. 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, more than offsetting decreases in energy indexes. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index also rising 0.5 percent. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent over the month as the gasoline index, the natural gas index, and the electricity index all declined.

The past 5 months (June to November) has been at an annualized rate of +1.13%. For comparison, the previous 5 months of January through June was an annualized rate of +12.94%. A major improvement in inflation, although it could be due to lower demand. Have to wait and see. 

For the first time in quite a long time, my monthly change was negative. Using the aforementioned 5 month ranges, the last 5 months was at annualized +1.41%, compared to prior 5 month annualized, of +10.94%. For year over year, My CPI stands at +6.7%

Hourly earnings have just about caught up with pre covid earnings. Real Earnings

I have done such a bang up job on predictions, I will not make any bold predictions for the future, although significant easing of energy prices is underway... although I suspect that might come to an end very soon. 

 

CPI DATA and Real Earnings, November 2022

The BLS report was released this morning and it was a surprise. (historical releases) It came in substantially under the forecast by everyone.

My forecast from last month...

Oh yeah... next month CPI at 8.1%~8.2%, with m/m of +0.8%.

As you know by now...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Of course, just as their is a silver lining inside every dark cloud, there can be a dark lining inside a silver cloud. Such as the month over month of July, at -0.01%; August at -0.04%; September at +0.22%; and this report (October) at +0.41%. Still not bad. 

My month over month was +0.08% and annual at 7.41% after last month's +0.33% mom and annual at 8.08%. For me, food somewhat decreased and medical stayed mostly flat. 

Hourly earnings have still not recover to pre-pandemic levels. Which is a nice way of saying wage inflation has not kept up with the CPI. Real Earnings

I over estimated inflation for October, so here is hoping I over shoot in November. Range of 7.6%~7.9%. Sure things are moderating, but can we count on further reductions in Electricity, Utility (piped) gas service, apparel, Used cars and trucks, and Medical Care services? 

Am I an optimist, pessimist, or realist?

Will the Consumer Continue to Carry the U.S. Economy?

Hmmm... The real earnings are almost healed compared to February 2020...

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with unemployment rate, now matching that date as well...

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As well as the number of employed near the same number or slightly higher...

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So, everything should be hunky-dory... right? Even when counting in the various stimuli and inflation adjusted retail trade...

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Everything almost matches up, when considering the consumer credit...

Click to Enlarge - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

Except the real earnings are inflation adjusted, the retail trade has been inflation adjusted, but the consumer credit is nominal. Which is ever so slightly slipping behind, when factoring inflation. At least that is my take.

Of course, the graph does not capture all credit numbers.  From the Federal Reserve. 

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 18.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent.

The inflation rate from the CPI was 8.3 percent annually for this period. Revolving credit has jumped 2.5% since June and nonrevolving was 0.9% during that period. We all know that interest rates are moving up, but which would have the higher interest rates? Revolving or nonrevolving?

In normal times, the revolving credit would increase roughly 3.6% annually and nonrevolving credit would edge up about 5% annually. So the 2 month jump in nonrevolving of 0.9%, does stay within the norms. That 2.5%, 2 month revolving credit jump does not translate very well to annual... 15%. It's basically four times higher, against a backdrop of increasing interest rates. 

Those believing the consumer can keep the economy going... are living on borrowed time. It will not be long, before the evidence of a consumer spending decline is clear. 

My guess would be the month following the first cold shock and those higher heating bills arrive.