4/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for March Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above March 2023. Total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2024 to February 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024, and up 3.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from March 2023.

The previous two months were revised upward. Here is the revision history...

The inflation adjusted retail sales...

Taking a look at retail sales (current dollars), with inflation adjusted (real dollars Feb. 2020).

The orange dots is the inflation adjusted, the line has been consistently just below the 600,000 mark (in millions)

Another comparison would be inflation adjusted as well.

Sales when adjusted for inflation, has remained relatively flat, after the recovery from covid, and vaccine rollout, plus stimulus. The timing for this, coupled with major issues in container transportation... resulted in the transitory phase of inflation.

Quite a good argument can be made the "transitory" inflation was exported, due to ocean going shipping problems. Of course, by mid to late 2021, energy became a predominant factor, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy issues. By that time, inflation became everywhere.

This month's report was pretty darn stellar, given the upward revisions of the previous two months. The standout was electronic shopping and mail order houses, which account for 17.3% of the total, but was a 45.4% of the overall annual gains, with the monthly rise being 64.7% of the total monthly gain.

There are problem areas, however. 

But we can take a good report, without muddying up the picture. At least in my humble opinion.

3/14/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for February Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, February Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2023. Total sales for the December 2023 through February 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.1 percent (±0.4 percent).

Of course the previous 2 months were revised downward...

The result in inflation adjusted sales, looked like this...

Since the pre-covid timing, the inflation report...

The average for the monthly sales starting from March 2021...

The trend is undeniably downward. 

It's not all gloom and doom, as there are areas seemingly on the uptick. Read the report and download the data, to see those areas.

 

2/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for January Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, January Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* above January 2023. Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).

Cutting through the malarkey...

After revising the November numbers down by -0.4%, and December numbers downward by -1.4%, we still end up with January sales down by -0.8%, from December.  With inflation for the past 12 months at 3.1%, sales were only up +0.6%.

Granted the graph above, is a bit busy, but the retail sales, adjusted for inflation appear to be flat.

Looking at the average monthly sales (adjusted for inflation) since March, 2021... is provided in this graph.

Even better is this inflation adjusted graph starting in February, 2020.

Once past the initial vaccine rollout, coupled with massive stimulus checks, it quickly petered out, then rising into early 2022, then early 2023 saw a slow and steady decline.

As for the data in the report, there was a striking difference between adjusted and unadjusted numbers.

The unadjusted numbers were across the board for monthly sales, with adjusted showing only a very few instances of sales increases... with neither being inflation adjusted. 

When checking individual categories for adjusted numbers, and factoring inflation... only 3 indicated any improvement. 

• Furniture and home furnishings
• Grocery stores (just barely)
• Food services and drinking places.

No doubt next month's report will be stellar, once all the downward revision from previous months take place. (LOL!)

1/17/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for December Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, December Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.9 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2022. Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022. Total sales for the October 2023 through December 2023 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2023 to November 2023 percent change was unrevised from up 0.3 percent (±0.3 percent)*.

Hmmm...  "Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022." The BLS listed that same period as having inflation of 3.4%. Which means the seasonal variation and trading-day differences have come into the equation. Otherwise, sales were up a bit more than indicated, imho.

First up the revisions...

We continue a pattern of previous months being revised downward, so the monthly changes are somewhat suspect.

When adjusted for inflation, the annual shows an improvement of +2.2%. The January numbers will be quite interesting, imho. The January report, adjusted for inflation, is slightly above the December number with inflation adjustements. Revisions will likely take place. 😒

The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...

The quantity of goods has not yet matched the highs of both March and April of 2021 and 2022. It will be interesting to see if a seasonal repeat is in store for early spring.

Mail order, vehicles and general merchandise led the way, with $4.305M of the $3.909M increase. That means there were some losers. Gasoline was down -$691M. The rest were slightly above or slightly below.

Seasonal factors likely drove the mail order and general merchandise, so can't reasonably expect a repeat in January. Gasoline currently remains relatively flat, compared to December.

Like I said... the revisions for January's report should be very interesting.

12-15-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for November Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, November Report.

First up should be the revisions...

Note the -0.2% downward revision in October's numbers and as always, remember this data is NOT inflation adjusted. Now onto the current report...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2022.

The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...

It is hard to capture from the graph, but "Real" sales are advancing very slowly since January, although still below 2022 average levels. Year over year, up +0.8% inflation adjusted, with the month being up +0.5% after inflation adjustements. 

So it can be called a win.

10-17-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for September Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2022. Total sales for the July 2023 through September 2023 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2023 to August 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023, and up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 9.2 percent (±2.3 percent) from September 2022.

As always, a reminder... "not for price changes", means not adjusted for inflation.

The term "resilient" continues to be overused, when clearly the actual "stuff" being bought is rather stagnant. 

That's not to say that last month's data was not an improvement, as both month to month and year over year were up... after adjusting for inflation. However, a rolling 12 month average indicates slippage of -0.1%, when adjusted for inflation.

That includes last September, which got revised downward... ever so slightly.

It should be noted, that today's report is +1.8% above January in current dollars, yet -1.1% when inflation adjusted. THAT is after all the revisions to January. Which begs the question... what will next month's backward revisions be.

You won't hear about it, as the mantra... "if it can't be spinned positively, ignore it." I am not saying the Census Bureau minions are at work here, but politicians and their friendly media darlings do.

I will continue to monitor thee monthly reports, however this is the last in this series.

9-14-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for August Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.6 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2022. Total sales for the June 2023 through August 2023 period were up 2.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2023 to July 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023, and up 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were down 10.3 percent (±1.1 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 8.5 percent (±2.3 percent) from August 2022.

Again... "not for price changes", means not adjusted for inflation.

Much is being made of "gasoline's" impact, but the numbers, when adjusted for inflation continue to remain rather stagnant, with adjusted spending remaining rather flat since the roll out of the vaccines and that $1,400 stimulus in spring 2021. Which also coincides with the ramp up of inflation.

Last month, my mood was elevated, as previous month's data had been revised upward, after so many months of downward revisions. 

We seem to be at it again. Can I expect this month's numbers to be revised downward... next month? Revising a previous month downward, then claiming +0.6% increase, while then stating it is mostly gasoline, is befuddling to me. 

Somehow, I expect the cycle to continue, without anyone questioning those banner numbers. 

8-15-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for July

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, July 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $696.4 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2022. Total sales for the May 2023 through July 2023 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2023 to June 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2023, and up 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 10.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 11.9 percent (±2.3 percent) from July 2022.

The "but not for price changes, means not adjusted for inflation... 

While improved over last month by 0.5% when adjusted for inflation... year to year is flat.

In a previous column, I made mention of the Census Bureau's propensity to revise downward previous month's data to improve current month results. We are in the second month of previous month's data being revised upward... which is good news. May that become a trend going forward.

Non store retailers, continues to lead the pack, with Furniture and Electronics turning negative from last month. Clothing edged up from last month, with Food Services and drinking places accelerating.

What really stands out is the EX gasoline category, which rose 5.8% year over year, which is better than the CPI EX gasoline of 4.3%.

Room for optimism!

7-18-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for June

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.5 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2022. Total sales for the April 2023 through June 2023 period were up 1.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2023 to May 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from May 2023, and up 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 8.4 percent (±2.3 percent) from June 2022.

Those figures are nominal, meaning not adjusted for inflation. Compare the nominal 0.2% monthly and 1.5% annual increase... to the CPI of 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annual. In other word, the montly was flat in inflation adjusted and -1.5% on the annual inflation adjusted.

Now for the good news... maybe.

After months of the media extolling the upward trend meeting or exceeding expectations of the Advance report, they are ho-hum to disappointed in this report.

For months, I have lamented the constant downward revisions of preceding months, which gives the appearance of meeting or exceeding expectations on the Advance Report.

However, this month's advance report shows an upward revision to both April and May... from last month. Without the upward in revision in May's numbers, the uptick would have been about +0.43%. Which is still below the expectations, but not as far below the +0.5% expected.

What does appear to be happening... is the consumer is running out of steam, and has been since January. Even the FED has picked up on this. The Census Bureau acknowledges this with their XLS download (table 2). 

Now the winners and losers...

Nonstore retailers is generally the mail order places, such as Amazon, etc. Furniture and electronics popped up as well as clothing. 

Building materials, gasoline stations, sporting goods, and surprisingly... grocery stores slid.

As stated earlier, the spending habits are simply shifting from one thing to another, with no real growth... except inflation generated.

This graph is from data taken from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) website...

Seriously, the data from every source... indicates the party is pretty much over. It will be hard to put any type of positive spin... going forward. 

Spin has been most of the business news for over a year. The realization of this condition will lead to claims of gloom and doom... which is also spin. 

The past two years have not been nirvana and the outlook going forward is not bleak. At some point the spin will moderate to reality, imho.

6-15-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for May

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2023.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.6 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above May 2022. Total sales for the March 2023 through May 2023 period were up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2023 to April 2023 percent change was unrevised at 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).

The advance estimate are in current dollars, and are not adjusted for inflation. The CPI for May was 4.0% Y/Y, while the advance sales estimates were up 1.6% (± 0.7%). Effectively paying more for less. 

Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from April 2023, and up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 6.5 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 8.0 percent (±2.3 percent) from May 2022.

Time for the revisions...

I do not fault the bean counters, as it is openly acknowledged that estimates are based on incomplete information. The problem is with the media, that jump to conclusions based on incomplete information.

In short, the sales numbers are rather stagnant, when factoring in inflation, and not really growing much when using constant dollars.

So the folks extolling the "sales" increase are  not exactly paying attention to the revised numbers, and those constantly forecasting a collapse aren't paying attention, as well. 

No news is actually good news, in this case, or at least in my humble opinion.

 

 

5-16-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for April

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2023.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.1 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above April 2022. Total sales for the February 2023 through April 2023 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2023 to March 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from March 2023, and up 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 9.4 percent (±2.5 percent) from April 2022.

As always, these figures are not adjusted for inflation, so +1.6% above year ago levels, when inflation adjusted comes down to something like -3.2%.

Now for those revisions. Yes, April was up 0.4% from previous month, which was revised from -0.6% to -0.7%. Doesn't seem bad, until you look at the previous month's revisions.

The revisions for January, February, March were sizable. So after those sizable revisions... you do end up with -0.7% for the previous month. 

We seem to be on a trend of downward revisions, and then extolling the current report. I suspect this month will be revised downward for next month... so next month can seem like a positive. 

So, I do not have a positive spin on this report.

As has been the case for several months, the "quantity" has remained stagnant, while spending increases. 

Adjusting for inflation, the actual volume of sales has remained rather flat for the past two years. 

There were winners and losers, but the revisions really distorted previous lists of winners and losers... such that I cannot attempt a realistic review. (Mostly laziness)!

4-14-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for March

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March 2023

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $691.7 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2022. Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 period were up 5.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2023 to February 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2023, but up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.3 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 13.0 percent (±2.6 percent) from March 2022.

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Plain and simple... the quantity goods being bought, has remained rather flat for several months. Inflation has made for the increases.

but up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2022

Again, that is before inflation is taken in consideration. The CPI-U, was 5.0%. And the M/M CPI-U was +0.1% seasonally adjusted. 

For the month to month, with inflation adjustments... 

Its not really bad news, as nothing as fallen off a cliff. With this being tax refund season... it should remain stable for a while longer.

It does appear that home renovation, appliances, and electronic items have somewhat paused. Restaurant and bars, seemed to slip last month, with groceries edging up. On the year to year, groceries are still down and the restaurant and bar category is running ahead.

I was confused over the m/m drop in gasoline and service stations, but suspect that is more to do with "seasonal" adjustments, rather than reality. But it may be we are not going into the convenient store for a snack and rather stopping at a drive thru restaurant.

The whole point being... sales were up, but stuff bought actually slipped -1.3% on the month and -1.9% on the year. 

It is too early to predict the sky is falling. I suspect some turnaround with the aforementioned tax refund season upon us. 

The oddity to me, is the difference in nominal sales from February 2020, to current. Sales have increased a whopping +31.5% during an inflationary period of 17.7%. That leaves 13.8% coming from somewhere. 

I keep coming back to the various simulus packages and the so called multipler effect. Which then leads me to wonder, when will it end. I suspect we are getting closer.

That is not to say, we are going to fall off a cliff, but rather some contraction in the economy, is likely.

The February Advance Retail Sales Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, February 2023 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.9 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2022. Total sales for the December 2022 through February 2023 period were up 6.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2022 to January 2023 percent change was revised from up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 3.2 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from January 2023, but up 4.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 15.3 percent (±2.6 percent) from February 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 10.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from last year.

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Click image to enlarge

Plain and simple... the quantity goods being bought, remained rather flat for several month. Inflation has made for the increases in cost.

but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2022.

Again, that is before inflation is taken in consideration. The CPI-U, was 6.0%. 

For the month to month, with inflation adjustments...

Click image to enlarge

It hasn't fallen off a cliff, but it hasn't really grown. The growth is mostly due to inflation. 

Click image to enlarge

Adjusting for inflation, the above chart lists the only groupings that did not slip last month.

Not sure what to make of the data, to calculate going forward. Will find out next month!!

The January Retail Sales Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, January 2023 

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.0 billion, up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2022. Total sales for the November 2022 through January 2023 period were up 6.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2022 to December 2022 percent change was unrevised at down 1.1 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2022, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 25.2 percent (±2.6 percent) from January 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 4.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from last year. (emphasis added)

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Click to Enlarge

The clue being the emphasis I added in the clip from the release. Sales were up 6.4%, but so was inflation. Units of good, were basically the same as a year ago.

Over 68% of the total increase from December was in the following.

For anyone wishing to "annualize" today's numbers, we are in a rinse and repeat cycle, as indicated by previous year's numbers.

Click to Enlarge

To summarize... despite the "stellar" 3.0% rise in sales over December, we are back to January 2022, in goods purchased. The rest is inflation.

That's not bad, just not really "stellar", in my humble opinion.

Some Clarity on the December Retail Trade Report

 ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, December 2022 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2021. Total sales for the 12 months of 2022 were up 9.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2021. Total sales for the October 2022 through December 2022 period were up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2022 to November 2022 percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Click to Enlarge

The blue dots represents what we have spent in current dollars, and the orange represents the quantity of stuff we have bought. This clearly represents the when... for ramp up of inflation. 

It should be noted the December of 2022 decline is similar to the December of 2021 decline. 

Click to Enlarge

Putting it another way, this report indicates that total sales in current dollars, has fallen back to May, 2022 levels, while Quantity bought is back to August 2021 levels.

Or a third way, is to note...

Click to Enlarge

Retail sales have been fairly flat, the past year, when adjusted for inflation. It would also be reflected in the drop off in trade deficit, which indicates the supply chain is nearly healed. 

Some food for thought. Initially, inflation was blamed on supply chain issues rather than monetary/fiscal policy, AND would thereby be transitory. That theory would indicate prices falling back to pre-supply chain problems. 

Those prices have become sticky and show no signs of falling back to pre-supply chain levels. Thus monetary/fiscal policy should be the focus.

In fairness, I believe the FED has been forced to address the Fiscal failings, by using implementing monetary policy. Although, whether fiscal or monetary, it is the same sorry bunch, imho.

Don't be fooled by last month's data, as core PCE has become quite sticky in the 0.35%~0.4% monthly range, which is still twice what the FED wants.. Also, the PPI fell more than expected, but you would have thought the magic number has finally arrived. 6.2% year over year is not magical, imho.

What To Make of the November Retail Trade Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, NOVEMBER 2022 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021.

Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2022 to October 2022 percent change was unrevised from up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2022, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from November 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year.

The biggest losers for the month...

• Department stores
• Furniture & home furn. Stores
• Motor vehicle & parts dealers
• Building material & garden eq. &
• Electronics & appliance stores
  

Moderate Losers for the month...

• Non-store retailers
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores

There seems to be a bit of concern, as the sales rate fell more than anticipated. How much is seasonal and how much is consumers pinching pennies? 

• We knew, or should have known, that Motor Vehicles were slowing, especially in the used car market, with lower prices. 
• Building materials, etc. would seem likely to slip this time of year.

When we consider this release as being current dollars and then adjust for real dollar purchases... the line has been fairly flat for several months. Compared to last year in "inflation adjusted" dollars, this month is -0.2%. 

Of course, we must always remember that data may be adjusted in following months, as more data becomes available. So everything I have mentioned is based on incomplete data. Not very helpful, in my humble opinion, but the best available information. 

I don not understand the hoopla around this report. 

Retail Trade Still Holding Up, In Many Areas, But Not All

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, OCTOBER 2022

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2021. Total sales for the August 2022 through October 2022 period were up 8.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2022 to September 2022 percent change was unrevised from virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2022, and up 7.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 17.8 percent (±1.6 percent) from October 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.2 percent) from last year.

Winners were broad based, but there were some losers, as in reduced sales in constant dollars...

• Department Stores
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores
• Electronics & appliance stores
• Clothing & clothing accessories stores

There was one, that did not keep pace with inflation, or slipped in "real" dollars.

• Miscellaneous store retailers

Not sure how the consumer is managing to keep up this pace of spending, which is at the February ~ April 2022 pace in "real" dollars. (Still not at the level of March ~ April 2021, in "real" dollars).

I can only speculate that consumers are going credit crazy. I have thought that for awhile and keep expecting the consumer to slow purchasing, as interest rates are edging up. 

I guess that whole "buy now, pay later" mantra hasn't gotten to the "later" part. 

Retail Trade Report for September 2022

The Census Bureau has once again graced us with their monthly Retail Report for September 2022.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 8.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2021. 

Total sales for the July 2022 through September 2022 period were up 9.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2022 to August 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3% (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent). Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from August 2022, but up 7.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. 

Gasoline stations were up 20.6 percent (±1.6 percent) from September 2021, while Non-store retailers were up 11.6 percent (±1.1 percent) from last year

Allow me to give my interpretation. They revised the August data upward and September's advance estimate is almost no change, against an anticipated 2% rise. Which factoring in inflation, means "stuff bought index" was -0.2% less than August. 

So to really be clear, the money spent since September, 2021 has risen 8.23%, yet the stuff bought has edged up 0.02%.

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With every report, there are "winners" and "losers". It would be premature to see any trends, but I just can't help myself.

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It would almost seem the spending is closer to home, as in personal type things. We're slowing down on vehicles, furniture, electronics, building material, sporting good and focusing on feeding our bellies, dressing in style, beautifying ourselves, eating out and drinking away our misery.

What does it all mean? I have not a clue, which is why I am asking. BUTT, I just can't help myself and must opine some meaningless nonsense.

Just about everyone is screaming a recession is near. Just like that phrase "build it and they will come", saying recession over and over by enough people will bring on a recession. At this point, it is almost a certainty. The only things to determine are when, depth and duration.

I think a lot of people are altering their spending habits in preparation.