Producer Price Index for January 2022

 

The Producer Price Index as released by the BLS, this A.M. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent in December 2021 and 0.9 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent for the 12 months ended January 2022. 

In January, the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent, and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.3 percent.

Again, an ever so slight deceleration in upstream stages. (note the Eurostat for US is my estimate as the actual info has not been published).

The retail report tomorrow, while also backward looking, could provide some indication of future activity.

Just read an article that said $115 per barrel of oil could drive inflation to 10%. My calculations indicate a figure nearer to 8.4%, which leaves the over 92% of the remaining to increase above that rate. Let's not fixate on just one part of the consumer purchasing basket, imo.

Producer Price Index for December 2021

 

The Producer Price Index as released by the BLS, this A.M. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 1.0 percent in November and 0.6 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent in 2021, the largest calendar-year increase since data were first calculated in 2010. 

In December, the advance in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.5-percent increase in prices for final demand services. Conversely, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.4 percent. 

An ever so slight easing, imo, for the upstream inflation. As always, this is backward looking data and does not forecast what might happen in the future. 

The retail report tomorrow, while also backward looking, could provide some indication of future activity.

Producer Price Index for November 2021

 

The Producer Price Index as released by the BLS, this A.M. 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

In November, the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent and prices for final demand goods increased 1.2 percent.

Clearly not good, looking forwards. The Final Demand is higher than previous month, as is the intermediates. It would appear that a lot of inflation is to be passed on to the eventual consumer. There appears to be limited hope of annual inflation falling below 3% before next summer, based on these numbers. 

It should be noted that this is all in the review mirror as will be tomorrow's  Retail numbers. Those retail numbers, however... could provide a clue going forward.