Advance Retail Sales Report- October 17th, 2024

September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $714.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2023. Total sales for the July 2024 through September 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2024 to August 2024 percent change was unrevised from up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.4% annual, and up 0.16% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

Gasoline stations were the biggest losers, as would be expected with the fall in pump price. Also losing steam were home furnishings, electronics and appliances. Most other areas showed gains.

Review of August 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PCE ex food and energy inflation numbers continue to be a concern.

A lot of hoopla about the overall, but that PCE ex-F&E edged upward.

Now for the revisions in previous months...

Personal income, etc. is shown here.

The GDP 3rd estimate can be found here.

Note the uptick in the trade deficit. A part of that may be the front loading of imports in preparation of possible East and Gulf Coast port strike, possible on 10-1. Both sides seem to be playing chicken at this point. Each day of a strike would in theory... hamper $4.5 in imports and $2.8B in exports. 

That front loading should likely have a bit of drag on 3rd Quarter GDP, but certainly not like the 1st half of 2022... which was almost entirely responsible for those back to back negative quarters.

By end of October, we will have the first glimpse of 3Q GDP and whether there was a strike.

Advance Retail Sales Report- September 17th, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, August Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.5% 

First up, the revision history (might need to click on, to up scale)...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

After last month's "stellar" report, which was mostly from revisions and other items, this month is tame.

There were winners and losers, however. The biggest sales numbers come from the auto sector, which faded a bit over the past month in adjusted sales, and is below the annual.

The next biggest sector is food and beverage stores, which also saw a decrease in adjusted sales. General merchandise continued that trend, with department stores sales for adjusted monthly and annual falling.

Food services and drinking establishments held steady for the monthly adjusted.

Mail order companies, continue to outpace nearly all others.

Review of July 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward. 

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The 2nd quarter GDP was revised upward. I was puzzled by the statement regarding consumer spending and thus the headlines of resilient consumers. I would have expected consumer spending to be at or above the overall GDP announcement. 

But that is just me. It is an election year and important to convince the consumers... they are doing well.

Oh Joy!

Advance Retail Sales Report- August 15th, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, July Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023. Total sales for the May 2024 through July 2024 period were up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

As for those revisions...

So a big upward month, after all the previous month's downward revisions.

When adjusted for inflation...

Of course the current unadjusted number (709,668) is similar to December 2023 original advance report (709,890), which has been revised downward to current 703,256.

Even with all the revisions, today's release appears to be a sharp uptick from previous months, but still following a near flat line pattern, when factoring inflation.

Digging into the data... Sales advanced $6.806B from previous month. $4.703B was in the autos, a rebound from previous month, due to cyber attacks.

That leaves $2.103B. The downward revision from previous two months of -$1.636B and upward revision of April (+$0.010B) leaves a net gain of $477M.

That explains away about 93% of that "stellar" report.

Not exactly sure how that qualifies as stellar, but okay, what's done is done... until next month's round of revisions.

 

Review of June 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The 2nd quarter GDP came in above expectations at 2.8% annualized. I was puzzled by the slower growth in Services at 2.2% annualized, which helps explain the 2.3% annualized for personal consumption. Durable goods up 4.6% and nondurables at 1.4%, both annualized.

Overall a good report, but I would be a bit concerned if fixed investment can continue its expansion, which is equipment driven, while inventories keep building.

As for the PCE excluding food and energy... not much movement. Granted the market is anticipating a rate cut in September... and it might be warranted. A string of rate cuts might not be so warranted, imho. 

We can start the cycle again for next month, with the likelihood of CPI being at or slightly above this past month's reading. 

Advance Retail Sales Report- July 16, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023. Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Hard to keep up with the revisions, but here they are (click, to enlarge)...

It doesn't take much effort to see before revisions, the nominal figure is akin to the advance of September, 2023. 

However, when adjusted for inflation...

The quantity of goods is flat. Looking at the 12 month moving average, based on inflation adjustments... current is below, and has been for all of 2024.

Not sure where the good news, regarding growth... is to be found. Granted, it has not fallen off a cliff, but "real" growth is not to be found in this report, imho.

There were winners on the month and year, highlighted in green, with losers in red, with all numbers in nominal dollars (thousands).

Clearly, gasoline stations would show a nominal dollar drop, with decrease in pump prices. Food services and drinking places continues to increase.

Review of May 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers are of concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The GDP for 2024Q1 was revised ever so slightly upward to 1.4% annualized. Only time will tell if that gets revised on September 26th.

Advance Retail Sales Report- June18, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $703.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above May 2023. Total sales for the March 2024 through May 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2024 to April 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Wow... even with the typical downward revisions of previous months... the number barely moves upward.

When adjusted for inflation...

For sake of comparison, the current inflation adjusted retail sales is the lowest since February, 2021.

The biggest losers on year to year and monthly are home furnishings, building material and garden supplies. 

Mail order stores continue to gain, along with miscellaneous stores.

It was not a great report, but not a disaster. More in the lines of stagnant, imho. 

Review of April 2024 data, 1Q GDP revisions, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary is not so bad, actually.

The best that can be said, is inflation has stabilized, with a further slowing in the cards, by end of the year.

What is striking, is the downward tilt in disposable income AND personal consumption expenditures.

If you carefully look, the previous month was also revised downward, for those two items.

If spending is slowing, it would follow that demand is slowing, which would/should... slow inflation going forward.

As for the GDP revision... it was not unexpected. The story has now become the service sector. Not terribly worrisome, but what caught my eye, is the trade imbalance, which jumped. 

Oh well, that's a wrap for May.

5/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for April Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.2 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, but up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above April 2023. Total sales for the February 2024 through April 2024 period were up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2024 to March 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from March 2024, but up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 7.5 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 5.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from April 2023.

WOW! The revisions were substantial and long term...

Can't remember such a sea of downward revisions.

The result, when adjusted for inflation...

Whatever the reasons for the downward revisions, the trend line for actual purchases, when adjusted for inflation is slipping downward.

There clearly is a demand drop, but whether due to inflation causing budgets to tighten... who really knows.

It should be noted the following groupings, do seem to be waning on both annual and month to month...

• Furniture and home furniture stores
• Health and personal care stores
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical etc.

For whatever reason, we do seem to be cutting back in some areas.

 

Review of March 2024 data, 1Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary is not so wonderful, incomparison...

Inside all that pink is some troubling food related issues. Even though energy is somewhat in a narrow band, the food outlook is upward. The CPI-U expectations for the report on April, seemingly indicates a repeat of Mar-2024, outpacing the monthly core, although core is expected to ease a bit. Still above the overall CPI-U.

As for the personal income arena... this is the link... https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2024

There seems to be quite a jump in spending, versus Disposable personal income... for 2 consecutive months. Not sure there was much cash on hand, so the disposable is likely in the form of additional debt. 

Of course the above report mentioned a rise in goods. Perhaps it did, but the 1Q GDP did not reflect that. 

As for GDP, it now stands at 1.6% annualized for 1Q2024. The Trade deficit loomed large in the quarter and shows no signs of abating.

The reports for the month, ended up in so-so territory, imho. I am sure it will get spun hard in each direction. 

4/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for March Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above March 2023. Total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2024 to February 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024, and up 3.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from March 2023.

The previous two months were revised upward. Here is the revision history...

The inflation adjusted retail sales...

Taking a look at retail sales (current dollars), with inflation adjusted (real dollars Feb. 2020).

The orange dots is the inflation adjusted, the line has been consistently just below the 600,000 mark (in millions)

Another comparison would be inflation adjusted as well.

Sales when adjusted for inflation, has remained relatively flat, after the recovery from covid, and vaccine rollout, plus stimulus. The timing for this, coupled with major issues in container transportation... resulted in the transitory phase of inflation.

Quite a good argument can be made the "transitory" inflation was exported, due to ocean going shipping problems. Of course, by mid to late 2021, energy became a predominant factor, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy issues. By that time, inflation became everywhere.

This month's report was pretty darn stellar, given the upward revisions of the previous two months. The standout was electronic shopping and mail order houses, which account for 17.3% of the total, but was a 45.4% of the overall annual gains, with the monthly rise being 64.7% of the total monthly gain.

There are problem areas, however. 

But we can take a good report, without muddying up the picture. At least in my humble opinion.

Review of February 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The overall PCE edged upward, on annual basis, with PCE ex food and energy staying flat. 

Of course, the official got revised up for January, which indicates a difference from my report...

As for the personal income arena... this is the link... https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2024

Note the revisions as always, and I would recommend tracking the data monthly. Revisions are normal part of the cycle, as more data comes in. Recently however... previous data seems to come in a tad lower, which results in inflated current estimates. This was not always the case.

As for GDP, it seems to have edged up for 2023-4Q. I am not going to beat that horse over trade deficit numbers. I will simply state that prior to transfer of data from 2012 dollars into 2017 dollars, the GDP was marginally better. That adjustment amounts to about 1.9% annualized. So just take that with a grain of salt, as it is just my opinion.

One remaining bit of info can be found here. While I might harangue about the national debt, the 2023 year end net international investment was released. UGLY, at almost $20T. THAT IS WHAT WE OWE OTHER COUNTRIES.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IIPUSNETIQ

3/14/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for February Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, February Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2023. Total sales for the December 2023 through February 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2023 to January 2024 percent change was revised from down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.1 percent (±0.4 percent).

Of course the previous 2 months were revised downward...

The result in inflation adjusted sales, looked like this...

Since the pre-covid timing, the inflation report...

The average for the monthly sales starting from March 2021...

The trend is undeniably downward. 

It's not all gloom and doom, as there are areas seemingly on the uptick. Read the report and download the data, to see those areas.

 

Review of January 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The downward shift in inflation continues across the board, with the exception of my price index, which is more about healthcare than any other weightings.

There were modest revisions in the PCE report, which are highlighted in Red.

I have made much of government spending on the GDP, but historically... not so abnormal (all charts from 2000Q1 onward...

A bit grainy in the upload, but trends are evident. The worrying factor is the trade deficit, while showing a bit of improvement the past few months, is still staggering compared to 10 years ago.

Bored silly, so will leave it there. 

2/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for January Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, January Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* above January 2023. Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).

Cutting through the malarkey...

After revising the November numbers down by -0.4%, and December numbers downward by -1.4%, we still end up with January sales down by -0.8%, from December.  With inflation for the past 12 months at 3.1%, sales were only up +0.6%.

Granted the graph above, is a bit busy, but the retail sales, adjusted for inflation appear to be flat.

Looking at the average monthly sales (adjusted for inflation) since March, 2021... is provided in this graph.

Even better is this inflation adjusted graph starting in February, 2020.

Once past the initial vaccine rollout, coupled with massive stimulus checks, it quickly petered out, then rising into early 2022, then early 2023 saw a slow and steady decline.

As for the data in the report, there was a striking difference between adjusted and unadjusted numbers.

The unadjusted numbers were across the board for monthly sales, with adjusted showing only a very few instances of sales increases... with neither being inflation adjusted. 

When checking individual categories for adjusted numbers, and factoring inflation... only 3 indicated any improvement. 

• Furniture and home furnishings
• Grocery stores (just barely)
• Food services and drinking places.

No doubt next month's report will be stellar, once all the downward revision from previous months take place. (LOL!)

Review of December 2023 data, 4Q GDP, PCE and personal income

Alas, 2023 reports have concluded. The GDP's 4Q advance reading indicates a sterling 3.1% rise. I will make mention of the 5 year Quinquennial revision from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars. As would be expected the numbers jumped 9.0%. I can't help but notice the big drag on GDP of net exports of good and services, slid a whopping -26.7%. 

Even under the revised numbers, that latter component fell another -5.9% from one year ago.

PCE, which is typically 68.7% of GDP under the 2017 revision, made up 58.3% of that yearly increase. 

Which gives pause to the notion of the consumer driving those GDP numbers, when in fact they appear to have been a bit of drag.

Gross private investment, also underperformed. The real over achievers were government and net exports of good and services. 

It is what it is.

PCE ex. food and energy ease from 3.4% to 3.2%. The overall remained unchanged.

All in all, a decent end to the 2023 years.

1/17/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for December Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, December Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.9 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2022. Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022. Total sales for the October 2023 through December 2023 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2023 to November 2023 percent change was unrevised from up 0.3 percent (±0.3 percent)*.

Hmmm...  "Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022." The BLS listed that same period as having inflation of 3.4%. Which means the seasonal variation and trading-day differences have come into the equation. Otherwise, sales were up a bit more than indicated, imho.

First up the revisions...

We continue a pattern of previous months being revised downward, so the monthly changes are somewhat suspect.

When adjusted for inflation, the annual shows an improvement of +2.2%. The January numbers will be quite interesting, imho. The January report, adjusted for inflation, is slightly above the December number with inflation adjustements. Revisions will likely take place. 😒

The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...

The quantity of goods has not yet matched the highs of both March and April of 2021 and 2022. It will be interesting to see if a seasonal repeat is in store for early spring.

Mail order, vehicles and general merchandise led the way, with $4.305M of the $3.909M increase. That means there were some losers. Gasoline was down -$691M. The rest were slightly above or slightly below.

Seasonal factors likely drove the mail order and general merchandise, so can't reasonably expect a repeat in January. Gasoline currently remains relatively flat, compared to December.

Like I said... the revisions for January's report should be very interesting.