Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-29-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report. 

At long last, all regions are above both last year and 5 year average. Hooray!

EIA.GOV via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Time to wrap up the publishing of this weekly natural gas summary...

Review of August data and the September PCE Release

Yep, today's report was positive, with an uptick of +0.4%. That being in current dollars and when adjusted for inflation became... -0.2% for the month to month. The good news was the year to year inflation adjusted +0.1%. 

I did not denote the various changes from previous month's release, so but can be seen in previous publications.

It should be noted that multiple adjustments were made to previous readings, as indicated below...

The FED chain type report of PCE, excluding food and energy was adjusted to 2017 from previous 2012.

The 3.9% current, hearkens back to May of 2021, when things were transitory. The signs are pointing downward, but that 3.0% target remains distant, imho.

The scorecard for this month looks like this.

If I were grading this report, it would be 47.1%, compared to last month's 52.9%. Translation: My confidence in inflation heading towards 2.0% is not as great as some are predicting. 

Quick Review of The GDP report 2Q-2023, 3rd estimate

First off, the base year for chained dollars is now 2017, instead of the previous 2012.

Secondly, there were revisions in past quarters, or updates. This is done annually. 

• 2023 Quarter one GDP was revised upward, from 2.0% annualized, to 2.2% annualized.
• 2023 Quarter one GDI was revised upward from -1.8% annualized to 0.5% annualized.

There are other changes, but that was a sampling.

While the chained dollar report for last month, based on 2012, showed the Real GDP at 20.387T, the new report based on 2017, is now 22.225T. 

However, there were significant reductions in the report, with Durable Goods being reduced, both on the personal consumption level and imports. 

Clearly there were large adjustments elsewhere to overcome those changes, such as in personal consumption services (quite large), Fixed Investment and Government consumption and Net exports of goods and services.

Nothing really out of line from expectations, although the Personal Consumption Expenditures for Goods was quite a drop from Quarter one. However, it is still positive and the drop was not quite a surprise, as the Monthly PCE report has been screaming a sharp decline.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 9-27-2023, per EIA.GOV

Gasoline prices (per AAA) fell from last report's $3.875, to $3.832. One year ago the price was $3.747, and was rising higher into Mid October's peak, then heading for the December low of $3.096.

Consumption edged down -2.5% from previous week and appears to be going into the fall season decline, with the year over year up just +0.7%. 

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks decreased -2.2M barrels, from last week, and is -4.5% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -1.6% below that adjusted 5 year average.

Distillates inventory rose +340K barrels; and Gasoline inventories eose +1027K barrels. Distillates (-10.2%,-1.5%) and Gasoline (-0.9%, -0.2%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR decreased -250K barrels this past week. Breaking a 7th consecutive week streak for increases, which were the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $93.72, compared to $90.27 (+3.8%), one week ago, and $81.24 one year ago (+15.4%).

Refinery slipped on a weekly basis, but remains above year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 873M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. That number increased by 12M barrels this past week. 

Gasoline exports/imports saw a net increase of 728K barrels this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 113.7M barrels being exported over imports.

Despite the surge in crude prices this week, domestic demand points towards pump prices drifting lower. However, that may be based on hope, rather than real time data.

This wraps up my publication of the weekly petroleum summary. I will continue to track, but not publish.

My electricity bills over time (January 2017~ September 2023)

Once again, I monitor my residential electricity costs.

As always, weather is a factor in consumption, which is why a rolling average is also important. Currently, that 12 month rolling average is +0.6% above last year. Which might indicate the cost running slightly below last year, when factoring in the following.

[I suspect it might be lower, as I altered the thermostat settings in December of 2022. I adjusted the nighttime heating settings from 68°F to 72°F, which would increase the usage in winter time. Daytime heat settings remained at 72°F.

Cooling settings remain at 76°F daytime and 72°F for nighttime. Additionally, the number of days between meter readings vary.]

             

Currently, the 2023 average is above last year, but that is with 3 more months of bills to follow, which are generally... sightly lower than current average. Also, it should be noted that year over year... or base effects come into play, which tends to hide the overall increases. 

So what might seem like good news, still carries quite a bite on the budget. The CPI-U suggests that the average consumer spends about 2.559% of their expenses on electricity... or about $150 per month. 

My average is significantly short of that dollar amount, percentage wise. However my electricity expenses, compared to overall expenses, is well north of 2.559%. Which means other items in the expenditure basket are constrained.

While it (electricity costs) might end up being below last year, the cost of that electricity  has surged 11.6% since February, 2021. I don't expect it to fall back to levels of that time.

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-22-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report.

The Pacific Region has pushed above year ago levels and is very near the 5 year average.

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

The United Kingdom continues to slide in percent of storage filled. It should be noted that UK does have access to natural gas supplies and infrastructure for LNG. However, the flip side is more abrupt changes in pricing.

Which is most noticeable in the forward futures, as shown on this chart.

The US market continues to be somewhat stable. 

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- September, 2023 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of August data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The USA (CPI: +3.7%; +2.5% Eurostate method) and Canada +4.0%, ticked up for the 2nd consecutive month, with regards to year over year inflation. 

The EU has marked 10 consecutive months of decline in year over year inflation at 5.9%. That figure was down from 6.1% last month. It was not even across the board, as Germany's 6.5% of last month, dipped to 6.4%, which was improvement, but some countries... such as France increased from 5.1% to 5.7%, according to Eurostat.

The UK has now marked its 3rd consecutive decline at 6.3%, with the month over month at +0.4%, which was up from previous 2 months.