4-14-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for March

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March 2023

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $691.7 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2022. Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 period were up 5.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2023 to February 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2023, but up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.3 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 13.0 percent (±2.6 percent) from March 2022.

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Plain and simple... the quantity goods being bought, has remained rather flat for several months. Inflation has made for the increases.

but up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2022

Again, that is before inflation is taken in consideration. The CPI-U, was 5.0%. And the M/M CPI-U was +0.1% seasonally adjusted. 

For the month to month, with inflation adjustments... 

Its not really bad news, as nothing as fallen off a cliff. With this being tax refund season... it should remain stable for a while longer.

It does appear that home renovation, appliances, and electronic items have somewhat paused. Restaurant and bars, seemed to slip last month, with groceries edging up. On the year to year, groceries are still down and the restaurant and bar category is running ahead.

I was confused over the m/m drop in gasoline and service stations, but suspect that is more to do with "seasonal" adjustments, rather than reality. But it may be we are not going into the convenient store for a snack and rather stopping at a drive thru restaurant.

The whole point being... sales were up, but stuff bought actually slipped -1.3% on the month and -1.9% on the year. 

It is too early to predict the sky is falling. I suspect some turnaround with the aforementioned tax refund season upon us. 

The oddity to me, is the difference in nominal sales from February 2020, to current. Sales have increased a whopping +31.5% during an inflationary period of 17.7%. That leaves 13.8% coming from somewhere. 

I keep coming back to the various simulus packages and the so called multipler effect. Which then leads me to wonder, when will it end. I suspect we are getting closer.

That is not to say, we are going to fall off a cliff, but rather some contraction in the economy, is likely.

The February Advance Retail Sales Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, February 2023 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.9 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2022. Total sales for the December 2022 through February 2023 period were up 6.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2022 to January 2023 percent change was revised from up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 3.2 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from January 2023, but up 4.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 15.3 percent (±2.6 percent) from February 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 10.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from last year.

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

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Plain and simple... the quantity goods being bought, remained rather flat for several month. Inflation has made for the increases in cost.

but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2022.

Again, that is before inflation is taken in consideration. The CPI-U, was 6.0%. 

For the month to month, with inflation adjustments...

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It hasn't fallen off a cliff, but it hasn't really grown. The growth is mostly due to inflation. 

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Adjusting for inflation, the above chart lists the only groupings that did not slip last month.

Not sure what to make of the data, to calculate going forward. Will find out next month!!

The January Retail Sales Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, January 2023 

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.0 billion, up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2022. Total sales for the November 2022 through January 2023 period were up 6.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2022 to December 2022 percent change was unrevised at down 1.1 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2022, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 25.2 percent (±2.6 percent) from January 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 4.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from last year. (emphasis added)

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

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The clue being the emphasis I added in the clip from the release. Sales were up 6.4%, but so was inflation. Units of good, were basically the same as a year ago.

Over 68% of the total increase from December was in the following.

For anyone wishing to "annualize" today's numbers, we are in a rinse and repeat cycle, as indicated by previous year's numbers.

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To summarize... despite the "stellar" 3.0% rise in sales over December, we are back to January 2022, in goods purchased. The rest is inflation.

That's not bad, just not really "stellar", in my humble opinion.

Some Clarity on the December Retail Trade Report

 ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, December 2022 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.0 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2021. Total sales for the 12 months of 2022 were up 9.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2021. Total sales for the October 2022 through December 2022 period were up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2022 to November 2022 percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

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The blue dots represents what we have spent in current dollars, and the orange represents the quantity of stuff we have bought. This clearly represents the when... for ramp up of inflation. 

It should be noted the December of 2022 decline is similar to the December of 2021 decline. 

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Putting it another way, this report indicates that total sales in current dollars, has fallen back to May, 2022 levels, while Quantity bought is back to August 2021 levels.

Or a third way, is to note...

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Retail sales have been fairly flat, the past year, when adjusted for inflation. It would also be reflected in the drop off in trade deficit, which indicates the supply chain is nearly healed. 

Some food for thought. Initially, inflation was blamed on supply chain issues rather than monetary/fiscal policy, AND would thereby be transitory. That theory would indicate prices falling back to pre-supply chain problems. 

Those prices have become sticky and show no signs of falling back to pre-supply chain levels. Thus monetary/fiscal policy should be the focus.

In fairness, I believe the FED has been forced to address the Fiscal failings, by using implementing monetary policy. Although, whether fiscal or monetary, it is the same sorry bunch, imho.

Don't be fooled by last month's data, as core PCE has become quite sticky in the 0.35%~0.4% monthly range, which is still twice what the FED wants.. Also, the PPI fell more than expected, but you would have thought the magic number has finally arrived. 6.2% year over year is not magical, imho.

What To Make of the November Retail Trade Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, NOVEMBER 2022 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021.

Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2022 to October 2022 percent change was unrevised from up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2022, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from November 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year.

The biggest losers for the month...

• Department stores
• Furniture & home furn. Stores
• Motor vehicle & parts dealers
• Building material & garden eq. &
• Electronics & appliance stores
  

Moderate Losers for the month...

• Non-store retailers
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores

There seems to be a bit of concern, as the sales rate fell more than anticipated. How much is seasonal and how much is consumers pinching pennies? 

• We knew, or should have known, that Motor Vehicles were slowing, especially in the used car market, with lower prices. 
• Building materials, etc. would seem likely to slip this time of year.

When we consider this release as being current dollars and then adjust for real dollar purchases... the line has been fairly flat for several months. Compared to last year in "inflation adjusted" dollars, this month is -0.2%. 

Of course, we must always remember that data may be adjusted in following months, as more data becomes available. So everything I have mentioned is based on incomplete data. Not very helpful, in my humble opinion, but the best available information. 

I don not understand the hoopla around this report. 

Retail Trade Still Holding Up, In Many Areas, But Not All

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, OCTOBER 2022

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2021. Total sales for the August 2022 through October 2022 period were up 8.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2022 to September 2022 percent change was unrevised from virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2022, and up 7.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 17.8 percent (±1.6 percent) from October 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.2 percent) from last year.

Winners were broad based, but there were some losers, as in reduced sales in constant dollars...

• Department Stores
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores
• Electronics & appliance stores
• Clothing & clothing accessories stores

There was one, that did not keep pace with inflation, or slipped in "real" dollars.

• Miscellaneous store retailers

Not sure how the consumer is managing to keep up this pace of spending, which is at the February ~ April 2022 pace in "real" dollars. (Still not at the level of March ~ April 2021, in "real" dollars).

I can only speculate that consumers are going credit crazy. I have thought that for awhile and keep expecting the consumer to slow purchasing, as interest rates are edging up. 

I guess that whole "buy now, pay later" mantra hasn't gotten to the "later" part. 

Retail Trade Report for September 2022

The Census Bureau has once again graced us with their monthly Retail Report for September 2022.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 8.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2021. 

Total sales for the July 2022 through September 2022 period were up 9.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2022 to August 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3% (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent). Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from August 2022, but up 7.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. 

Gasoline stations were up 20.6 percent (±1.6 percent) from September 2021, while Non-store retailers were up 11.6 percent (±1.1 percent) from last year

Allow me to give my interpretation. They revised the August data upward and September's advance estimate is almost no change, against an anticipated 2% rise. Which factoring in inflation, means "stuff bought index" was -0.2% less than August. 

So to really be clear, the money spent since September, 2021 has risen 8.23%, yet the stuff bought has edged up 0.02%.

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With every report, there are "winners" and "losers". It would be premature to see any trends, but I just can't help myself.

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It would almost seem the spending is closer to home, as in personal type things. We're slowing down on vehicles, furniture, electronics, building material, sporting good and focusing on feeding our bellies, dressing in style, beautifying ourselves, eating out and drinking away our misery.

What does it all mean? I have not a clue, which is why I am asking. BUTT, I just can't help myself and must opine some meaningless nonsense.

Just about everyone is screaming a recession is near. Just like that phrase "build it and they will come", saying recession over and over by enough people will bring on a recession. At this point, it is almost a certainty. The only things to determine are when, depth and duration.

I think a lot of people are altering their spending habits in preparation.

Retail Trade Report for August 2022

The Census Bureau has once again graced us with their monthly Retail Report for August 2022.

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $683.3 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 9.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2021.

Total sales for the June 2022 through August 2022 period were up 9.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2022 to July 2022 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).

Once again, we get previous months revised downward and current month edges up, as a result. Let's not focus on the past, but consider the current, while expecting it to be revised in the future. Been that way as long as I can remember, but I am also at that age, where memory is in question.

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This monthly chart of mine is an unscientific method of tracking retail. I just adjust the "adjusted" report numbers to rate of inflation. Like I said... not very scientific, but probably not that far off. Essentially, the stuff bought peaked in March ~ May of 2021. Inflation has made up the difference, in my humble opinion.

Seriously, the retail grocery spending is up 7.7% from last year, yet the CPI-U has food at home jumping 13.5%. Somebody, somewhere... is dialing back on type and/or quantity of food.

Gasoline stations are more than just gasoline, as it encompasses convenience stores. Which helps explain the drop in retail gasoline stations not quite matching the price at the pump. 

Of course, there are some winners to go along with the losers. Electronic and Appliances continue to shed a bit of ground. Either we already bought enough freezers back early during all the shortages, or we simply cannot afford the high price of freezer meats, so what is the point of buying freezers?

Mail order would seem to be on strong footing, except it slid last month, while box stores rallied. Not a lot, but it was in reverse of what I was thinking. 

There is a spreadsheet on the Census website, with some data to peruse. 

As the peak was in Spring of 2021, with moderate dip since, demand destruction is not really evident. In my humble opinion, inflation is likely to stick around. How long... no one really knows.

Retail Trade Report for July 2022

The Census Bureau released the Advance July Retail Sales Report, this AM.

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $682.8 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 10.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2021. Total sales for the May 2022 through July 2022 period were up 9.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2022 to June 2022 percent change was revised from up 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from June 2022, but up 10.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 39.9 percent (±1.6 percent) from July 2021, while nonstore retailers were up 20.2 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year.

On my very unscientific graph, the impact with CPI inflation backed out of the numbers.

Still not seeing that demand destruction that I would expect to see for a recession. Looking at the winners and losers, seems to confirm that notion.

We should be aware of the ongoing issues with the auto industry and even a minimal user of gasoline, such as myself, would know the pump prices are falling.

The non store retailers, which would include mail order, etc. is up, and building material, garden equipment, etc. is also up. Somehow, I would expect these two to slip a bit, if a recession were taking place. 

Granted, I have know idea where the money is coming from, to continue this level of spending, and would not have an idea of when it might end. I can only speculate, it might slow in the coming months. Of course, a simple explanation would be the savings from the pump are being redirected.

That speculation is simply based on the uneasy feeling that winter heating and electric bills will offset the gains at the gasoline pump. I will attempt to delve into that worrying trend in the next couple of days. 

Retail Trade Report for June 2022

Start off with the Census Bureau release...

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $680.6 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2021. Total sales for the April 2022 through June 2022 period were up 8.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2022 to May 2022 percent change was revised from down 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.1 percent (±0.3 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from May 2022, and up 7.7 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 49.1 percent (±1.6 percent) from June 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 13.4 percent (±3.9 percent) from last year. (emphasis added)

Once again, gasoline played a major factor. However, accounting for inflation and backing out gasoline, the sales were flat... over the month. 

My nutty assessment... We are foregoing fixing up the house and ourselves, placing emphasis on getting back and forth to work and using online shopping from our new comfortable recliner!! 

How else can you explain it.

All in all, not a bad report, as holding steady outside of gasoline is quite a feat, in my opinion.

Of course, we're still paying more for less... a trend likely to continue, until we run out of money and/or credit. 

So when the headline says something like "excluding gas stations, consumer spending was up 5.3% the past year". That 5.3% is NOT inflation adjusted. Just remember, excluding energy, inflation was up 6.6% in the past year. So we are back to spending more for less. 

We already knew that!!

Retail Trade Report for May 2022

 

Another less than stellar report, as retail trade fell in May, without adjustments for inflationary prices. 

Here is May's Advance Retail Report from the Census Bureau.

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $672.9 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 8.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above May 2021. Total sales for the March 2022 through May 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2022 to April 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.4 percent)* from April 2022, but up 6.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 43.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from May 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 17.5 percent (±4.0 percent) from last year.

Simply put... we have started to spend less and buy even less. Certainly the aforementioned items by the release come into play, but a few added comments from me. M/M and Y/Y.

• Motor vehicle & parts dealers …….……….. -3.52% -3.73%
• Electronics & appliance stores …………….. -1.33% -4.45%
• Nonstore retailers …………………..….……….. -0.98% +6.98%

It would be imprecise to deduct the 1.1% inflation from April or the 8.6% from May 2021, as the inflation rate varied across the many items. However, I did just that in the graph above. It shouldn't be taken as completely accurate, but does provide an indication of things as they stand. That is my opinion on the matter.

An example would be...

       Grocery stores …………………..………..……….. +1.23% +8.71%

The nearest in the CPI report was food at home, with +1.4% May over April and +11.9% Y/Y. It's almost as if people are purchasing less or at least... cheaper options. The thing about food is only so much budget cutting can take place, until you hit bone. 

An example of that would be the CPI decrease in beef and veal, with an upward spike in chicken and fish. It's not necessarily a healthier diet, as fruits and vegetables have hit a pause. 

The report calls out food services and drinking places on an annual basis, but what about monthly...

        Food services & drinking places ……….. +0.67% +17.47%

The monthly increase looks a bit shaky, once inflation is applied and the annual should be no surprise, as we were in the early stages a fully opening back up from Covid.

The bright spot is gasoline, which is not really a bright spot, in my opinion.

So another report into the dustbin. Which way is everything headed? I will wait for the smart people to tell me.

A Cautionary Tale About Believing Everything You Read!

Very recently, I ran across an article posted to one of those social media sites I frequent.

I will not link to the article, but the gist was the average retirement income for those over 65 had fallen from $56,632 in 2019, to  $46,360 in 2020. The source for that data was the Census Bureau.

As the drop was so large, I decided to investigate further, rather than accept the analysis of a financial planner. 

It was a case of mixing apples and oranges, as the 2019 number was for the age group 65~74, while the 2020 number included everyone over 65.

I visited the Census Bureau website and downloaded the 2019 and 2020 data. Here is a snapshot of each...

2019...

2020...

Of course all this is 2019 with pre-Covid and 2020 with Covid. There is a drop in each category.

Overall, the picture looked like this for 2019...

And here is 2020...

I could go on about how the economy was still struggling to fully recover in 2020, as it had not met GDP output for end of 2019... in either real terms or nominal.

Not real sure why the apples to oranges comparison came about, but it serves to point out the need to carefully parse the underlying data... prior to jumping to conclusions and certainly before publishing as fact. 

Retail Trade Report for April 2022

 

The Census Bureau has released the April 2022 Advance Retail And Food Services Estimates. (The graph is roughly adjusted for inflation, while the report and following summary are not adjusted for inflation. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.7 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above April 2021. 

Total sales for the February 2022 through April 2022 period were up 10.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2022 to March 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.4 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from March 2022, and up 6.7 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 36.9 percent (±1.8 percent) from April 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 19.8 percent (±4.4 percent) from last year.

The winners are Motor vehicle & parts dealers, up 2.17% MoM; Non-store retailers (which include Mail Order and Electronic Shopping), up 2.15%; and  Food services & drinking places, up 2.0%. (All not adjusted for inflation.)

Of the $6.063B increase from March... those figures above account for $7.309B of that $6.063B. Which would indicate all the rest lost -$1.246B, but Gasoline Stations were down -$1.734B, leaving all the rest to divvy up the remaining $488M, not adjusted for inflation.

All in all, a slight improvement, although I fail to see how the auto sector can continue the upward trend. I suspect borrowing heavily is once again in vogue and wonder at what point in time... increased interest rates will stifle this enthusiasm.

I guess only time will tell. 

Retail Trade Report for March 2022

 

The Census Bureau has released the ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, MARCH 2022. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $665.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 6.9 percent (±0.9 percent) above March 2021.

Total sales for the January 2022 through March 2022 period were up 12.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2022 to February 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.4 percent)* from February 2022, and up 5.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 37.0 percent (±1.8 percent) from March 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 19.4 percent (±4.6 percent) from last year.

I factor in the stuff bought based on the flat rate of inflation, without breaking out into various components. However, the bottom line should not be too far off. We are spending more for less. If you weren't already aware of that... shame on you.

For those interested in a bit more information...

The March 2022 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services report was released on April 14, 2022 at 8:30 a.m., and available as:

• Full Publication in Excel [78KB] | PDF [611KB] (Excel download)

A snapshot... 

• The "no shocker" category would be gasoline being up month to month and year over year. 
• Restaurants and drinking places, while up year to year... were flat from February.
• Automotive was down both year to year and from previous month.
• Electronic and appliance stores experienced an uptick from last month, although down from year ago levels.

The stuff bought appears to be sliding and I have to wonder if/when inflation might be curbed... due to demand destruction. Retail prices to the consumer are still rising; Producer prices to the retailers are still rising; and inputs to produce prices are still rising.

The really smart people indicate the inflation has peaked, but that simply means in the 8.0% range. These really smart people are starting to indicate demand destruction around early summer and continuing into late fall.

Of course these really smart people are sometimes wrong... just not as often as me. To clarify... that would be under 4% annual rate of inflation by Christmas. YeeHaw!!

Retail Trade Report for February 2022

 

The Census Bureau has released the ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, FEBRUARY 2022. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $658.1 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 17.6 percent (±0.9 percent) above February 2021. Total sales for the December 2021 through February 2022 period were up 16.0 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2021 to January 2022 percent change was revised from up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 4.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

The report does note the impact of higher gasoline prices, but remember this is for February and spending at gasoline stations was about 1/2 of that miniscule 0.3% before inflation adjustments. Whether you believe it or not, gasoline prices nationally rose on 8% from January to February and are currently about 22% higher than February. 

Of course, the report does not factor in inflation, which is indicated on the graph above. It should be noted the orange dots are calculated on the average CPI data. It should come as no surprise that we are paying more for less. In the 11 months since March 2021... we are paying 5.62% more for -1.39% less, on an adjusted basis.

One of the things I have considered, is that stimulus may have contributed to some of the inflation and certainly the huge jump in purchases. I suspect that money has been spent and we are now approaching fumes. That is in no way meant to imply that inflation will start to recede.

Far smarter minds than me, indicate inflation peaking around April, which will be reported in mid May. Any deceleration would follow a month later. A lot of that prognostication is based on forecasts in other areas, that might get revised. 

So hang on!!!

Retail Trade Report for January-2022

 

The Census Bureau released the advance data for January Retail. Woohoo, it was up 3.8% AFTER a downward revision of last month by -2.5%. (Which wasn't the only revision.)

This was last month's graph...

In any case the 3.8% would appear to be stellar until you realize it is not adjusted for inflation. When looking at the past few months... it becomes clear that the amount of "stuff" we are buying has plateaued, while the cost of the same amount of "stuff" has simply risen. 

Frankly, I don't understand the hoopla surrounding this report. Of course, I am just an ignorant hillbilly and know nothing of these matters. 

Retail Trade Report for December-2021

 

The Census Bureau released the advance data for December Retail. Last month the October number was revised up a tad, but this month it was revised down a tad and the November was revised down as well. Basically, this blunted the -1.9% fall in December Sales on an adjusted basis.

Furniture and Home Furnishings (-5.52%, -689M), followed by Clothing and Apparel (-3.06%, -824M), then Electronics and Appliances (-2.94%, -224M). It is no surprise that Department stores were (-6.95%, -817M) for the month.

Now for the eye opener... Non Store retailers, which includes Electronic Shopping and Mail order... (-8.7%, -7,867M)

Now for the stuff this ole Hillbilly can't fathom.

Headlines say Omicron was a factor and I would tend to agree, but the Electronic Shopping and Mail order segment would seem to benefit... but it didn't.

Supply Chain problems do exist, but with the Business and Wholesale Inventories up through November, I would have thought December would have been better.

Labor shortages, due to Covid... possibly, but hard to grasp how, considering the industries being impacted, etc. 

Then there is the major difference in unadjusted and adjusted, with the unadjusted indicating the opposite of what is possibly happening... 

Adjustment of estimates is an approximation based on current and past experiences. Therefore the adjustments could become less precise if current competitive pressures, changes in consumer buying patterns during holiday periods, and other elements introduce significant changes in seasonal, trading-day and holiday patterns.

Would Omicron/Covid have affected consumer buying patterns? 

Clearly, I am not a rocket scientist, so what do I know? However, I can speculate, opine/whine, etc. 

One year ago, the vaccine was being rolled out, the news was upbeat, inflation was tame, with those small stimulus checks rolling out in January... yet the February numbers lagged, as it was winter after all, until the big stimulus kicked in, and of course inflation followed. But the joy was everywhere, the end was in sight, the good ole days were almost here again.

1 year later and we don't have a lot of upbeat news and actually quite the contrary, no stimulus checks, inflation is running hot, but not enough to warm the weather. The supply chain is still snarled, covid is threatening to make it worse amongst our trading partners... etc. etc. Geo-politics is looking very unhealthy.

AND... if we haven't gotten sick by or of - Covid, it is an election year. So don't expect any help from D.C. - on anything. But you knew that already... or should have.

 

Retail Trade Report for November-2021

 

The Census Bureau released the advance data for November Retail. The real story is the upward revision for October, which seemingly blunted the November numbers. Factoring in inflation, less "stuff" got bought with more money. Hence the slight dip in after inflation numbers.

Still the amount of "stuff" being bought is well ahead of pre-pandemic economic expansion, in my opinion. For the month of November, the drop in department stores coupled with appliance and electronic stores were quite noticeable. The retail drinking establishment numbers were up.

As for those drops, the revised numbers upward in those areas for October, also lend to the idea of earlier holiday shopping. 

Altogether, not to good, but not too bad... probably more like a pause, with direction from here being anyone's guess. 

Retail Trade Report for October, 2021

Another month and another retail sales report from the Census Bureau. It was a healthy leap of 1.7% and after adjusting for inflation is still 0.8%. We are still buying more stuff. 

This is the 3rd straight monthly increase in buying of "stuff", so a trend has maybe set in... despite inflation.

The big winners would be in Gas Stations, Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Houses, Electronics & appliance stores, Miscellaneous store retailers, Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers, and Department stores.

The stragglers would be Furniture & home furn. stores and  Food & beverage stores (flat after adjusting for inflation). 

Weaknesses would include Food services & drinking places, Clothing & clothing accessories, and Health & personal care stores.

Any thought of consumer buying slowing down and easing inflation, simply did not exist from this report.

Up next Wednesday, the 24th, will be the PCE, which is forecasted to 5.08% year over year and 0.7% for the month. Core PCE is forecasted as 4.09% year over year and 0.44% on the month.

I should note the CPI from the BLS was underestimated this last reading, but the PCE (BEA) monthly was overestimated on the last reading. I will attempt to elaborate on the 24th, as to what all that means to me.