Retail Trade Report for August 2022

The Census Bureau has once again graced us with their monthly Retail Report for August 2022.

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $683.3 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 9.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2021.

Total sales for the June 2022 through August 2022 period were up 9.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2022 to July 2022 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).

Once again, we get previous months revised downward and current month edges up, as a result. Let's not focus on the past, but consider the current, while expecting it to be revised in the future. Been that way as long as I can remember, but I am also at that age, where memory is in question.

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This monthly chart of mine is an unscientific method of tracking retail. I just adjust the "adjusted" report numbers to rate of inflation. Like I said... not very scientific, but probably not that far off. Essentially, the stuff bought peaked in March ~ May of 2021. Inflation has made up the difference, in my humble opinion.

Seriously, the retail grocery spending is up 7.7% from last year, yet the CPI-U has food at home jumping 13.5%. Somebody, somewhere... is dialing back on type and/or quantity of food.

Gasoline stations are more than just gasoline, as it encompasses convenience stores. Which helps explain the drop in retail gasoline stations not quite matching the price at the pump. 

Of course, there are some winners to go along with the losers. Electronic and Appliances continue to shed a bit of ground. Either we already bought enough freezers back early during all the shortages, or we simply cannot afford the high price of freezer meats, so what is the point of buying freezers?

Mail order would seem to be on strong footing, except it slid last month, while box stores rallied. Not a lot, but it was in reverse of what I was thinking. 

There is a spreadsheet on the Census website, with some data to peruse. 

As the peak was in Spring of 2021, with moderate dip since, demand destruction is not really evident. In my humble opinion, inflation is likely to stick around. How long... no one really knows.