The January Retail Sales Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, January 2023 

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.0 billion, up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2022. Total sales for the November 2022 through January 2023 period were up 6.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2022 to December 2022 percent change was unrevised at down 1.1 percent (±0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2022, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 25.2 percent (±2.6 percent) from January 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 4.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from last year. (emphasis added)

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Click to Enlarge

The clue being the emphasis I added in the clip from the release. Sales were up 6.4%, but so was inflation. Units of good, were basically the same as a year ago.

Over 68% of the total increase from December was in the following.

For anyone wishing to "annualize" today's numbers, we are in a rinse and repeat cycle, as indicated by previous year's numbers.

Click to Enlarge

To summarize... despite the "stellar" 3.0% rise in sales over December, we are back to January 2022, in goods purchased. The rest is inflation.

That's not bad, just not really "stellar", in my humble opinion.