Retail Trade Report for July 2022

The Census Bureau released the Advance July Retail Sales Report, this AM.

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $682.8 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 10.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2021. Total sales for the May 2022 through July 2022 period were up 9.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2022 to June 2022 percent change was revised from up 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from June 2022, but up 10.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 39.9 percent (±1.6 percent) from July 2021, while nonstore retailers were up 20.2 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year.

On my very unscientific graph, the impact with CPI inflation backed out of the numbers.

Still not seeing that demand destruction that I would expect to see for a recession. Looking at the winners and losers, seems to confirm that notion.

We should be aware of the ongoing issues with the auto industry and even a minimal user of gasoline, such as myself, would know the pump prices are falling.

The non store retailers, which would include mail order, etc. is up, and building material, garden equipment, etc. is also up. Somehow, I would expect these two to slip a bit, if a recession were taking place. 

Granted, I have know idea where the money is coming from, to continue this level of spending, and would not have an idea of when it might end. I can only speculate, it might slow in the coming months. Of course, a simple explanation would be the savings from the pump are being redirected.

That speculation is simply based on the uneasy feeling that winter heating and electric bills will offset the gains at the gasoline pump. I will attempt to delve into that worrying trend in the next couple of days.