4-14-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for March

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March 2023

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $691.7 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2022. Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 period were up 5.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2023 to February 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2023, but up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.3 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 13.0 percent (±2.6 percent) from March 2022.

The data is not inflation adjusted. The data in this graph is...

Plain and simple... the quantity goods being bought, has remained rather flat for several months. Inflation has made for the increases.

but up 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2022

Again, that is before inflation is taken in consideration. The CPI-U, was 5.0%. And the M/M CPI-U was +0.1% seasonally adjusted. 

For the month to month, with inflation adjustments... 

Its not really bad news, as nothing as fallen off a cliff. With this being tax refund season... it should remain stable for a while longer.

It does appear that home renovation, appliances, and electronic items have somewhat paused. Restaurant and bars, seemed to slip last month, with groceries edging up. On the year to year, groceries are still down and the restaurant and bar category is running ahead.

I was confused over the m/m drop in gasoline and service stations, but suspect that is more to do with "seasonal" adjustments, rather than reality. But it may be we are not going into the convenient store for a snack and rather stopping at a drive thru restaurant.

The whole point being... sales were up, but stuff bought actually slipped -1.3% on the month and -1.9% on the year. 

It is too early to predict the sky is falling. I suspect some turnaround with the aforementioned tax refund season upon us. 

The oddity to me, is the difference in nominal sales from February 2020, to current. Sales have increased a whopping +31.5% during an inflationary period of 17.7%. That leaves 13.8% coming from somewhere. 

I keep coming back to the various simulus packages and the so called multipler effect. Which then leads me to wonder, when will it end. I suspect we are getting closer.

That is not to say, we are going to fall off a cliff, but rather some contraction in the economy, is likely.