Retail Trade Report for March 2022

 

The Census Bureau has released the ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, MARCH 2022. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $665.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 6.9 percent (±0.9 percent) above March 2021.

Total sales for the January 2022 through March 2022 period were up 12.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2022 to February 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.4 percent)* from February 2022, and up 5.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 37.0 percent (±1.8 percent) from March 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 19.4 percent (±4.6 percent) from last year.

I factor in the stuff bought based on the flat rate of inflation, without breaking out into various components. However, the bottom line should not be too far off. We are spending more for less. If you weren't already aware of that... shame on you.

For those interested in a bit more information...

The March 2022 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services report was released on April 14, 2022 at 8:30 a.m., and available as:

• Full Publication in Excel [78KB] | PDF [611KB] (Excel download)

A snapshot... 

• The "no shocker" category would be gasoline being up month to month and year over year. 
• Restaurants and drinking places, while up year to year... were flat from February.
• Automotive was down both year to year and from previous month.
• Electronic and appliance stores experienced an uptick from last month, although down from year ago levels.

The stuff bought appears to be sliding and I have to wonder if/when inflation might be curbed... due to demand destruction. Retail prices to the consumer are still rising; Producer prices to the retailers are still rising; and inputs to produce prices are still rising.

The really smart people indicate the inflation has peaked, but that simply means in the 8.0% range. These really smart people are starting to indicate demand destruction around early summer and continuing into late fall.

Of course these really smart people are sometimes wrong... just not as often as me. To clarify... that would be under 4% annual rate of inflation by Christmas. YeeHaw!!