Retail Trade Still Holding Up, In Many Areas, But Not All

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, OCTOBER 2022

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2021. Total sales for the August 2022 through October 2022 period were up 8.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2022 to September 2022 percent change was unrevised from virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2022, and up 7.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 17.8 percent (±1.6 percent) from October 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.2 percent) from last year.

Winners were broad based, but there were some losers, as in reduced sales in constant dollars...

• Department Stores
• Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores
• Electronics & appliance stores
• Clothing & clothing accessories stores

There was one, that did not keep pace with inflation, or slipped in "real" dollars.

• Miscellaneous store retailers

Not sure how the consumer is managing to keep up this pace of spending, which is at the February ~ April 2022 pace in "real" dollars. (Still not at the level of March ~ April 2021, in "real" dollars).

I can only speculate that consumers are going credit crazy. I have thought that for awhile and keep expecting the consumer to slow purchasing, as interest rates are edging up. 

I guess that whole "buy now, pay later" mantra hasn't gotten to the "later" part.