Retail Trade Report for December-2021

 

The Census Bureau released the advance data for December Retail. Last month the October number was revised up a tad, but this month it was revised down a tad and the November was revised down as well. Basically, this blunted the -1.9% fall in December Sales on an adjusted basis.

Furniture and Home Furnishings (-5.52%, -689M), followed by Clothing and Apparel (-3.06%, -824M), then Electronics and Appliances (-2.94%, -224M). It is no surprise that Department stores were (-6.95%, -817M) for the month.

Now for the eye opener... Non Store retailers, which includes Electronic Shopping and Mail order... (-8.7%, -7,867M)

Now for the stuff this ole Hillbilly can't fathom.

Headlines say Omicron was a factor and I would tend to agree, but the Electronic Shopping and Mail order segment would seem to benefit... but it didn't.

Supply Chain problems do exist, but with the Business and Wholesale Inventories up through November, I would have thought December would have been better.

Labor shortages, due to Covid... possibly, but hard to grasp how, considering the industries being impacted, etc. 

Then there is the major difference in unadjusted and adjusted, with the unadjusted indicating the opposite of what is possibly happening... 

Adjustment of estimates is an approximation based on current and past experiences. Therefore the adjustments could become less precise if current competitive pressures, changes in consumer buying patterns during holiday periods, and other elements introduce significant changes in seasonal, trading-day and holiday patterns.

Would Omicron/Covid have affected consumer buying patterns? 

Clearly, I am not a rocket scientist, so what do I know? However, I can speculate, opine/whine, etc. 

One year ago, the vaccine was being rolled out, the news was upbeat, inflation was tame, with those small stimulus checks rolling out in January... yet the February numbers lagged, as it was winter after all, until the big stimulus kicked in, and of course inflation followed. But the joy was everywhere, the end was in sight, the good ole days were almost here again.

1 year later and we don't have a lot of upbeat news and actually quite the contrary, no stimulus checks, inflation is running hot, but not enough to warm the weather. The supply chain is still snarled, covid is threatening to make it worse amongst our trading partners... etc. etc. Geo-politics is looking very unhealthy.

AND... if we haven't gotten sick by or of - Covid, it is an election year. So don't expect any help from D.C. - on anything. But you knew that already... or should have.