Retail Trade Report for February 2022

 

The Census Bureau has released the ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, FEBRUARY 2022. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $658.1 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 17.6 percent (±0.9 percent) above February 2021. Total sales for the December 2021 through February 2022 period were up 16.0 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2021 to January 2022 percent change was revised from up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 4.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

The report does note the impact of higher gasoline prices, but remember this is for February and spending at gasoline stations was about 1/2 of that miniscule 0.3% before inflation adjustments. Whether you believe it or not, gasoline prices nationally rose on 8% from January to February and are currently about 22% higher than February. 

Of course, the report does not factor in inflation, which is indicated on the graph above. It should be noted the orange dots are calculated on the average CPI data. It should come as no surprise that we are paying more for less. In the 11 months since March 2021... we are paying 5.62% more for -1.39% less, on an adjusted basis.

One of the things I have considered, is that stimulus may have contributed to some of the inflation and certainly the huge jump in purchases. I suspect that money has been spent and we are now approaching fumes. That is in no way meant to imply that inflation will start to recede.

Far smarter minds than me, indicate inflation peaking around April, which will be reported in mid May. Any deceleration would follow a month later. A lot of that prognostication is based on forecasts in other areas, that might get revised. 

So hang on!!!