Thursday, January 5, 2023

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 5 2023

Habits, both good and bad, are hard to break, and so is doing this report for nearly the past 20 years. There is a reason I started it, but not sure there is a reason to continue. 

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +1.7M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.4M Barrels; and Gasoline slid -300K barrels. The SPR slid another -2.7M barrels.

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After all the ups and downs of inventories, the day's supply increased across the board. Which can only mean consumption tapped the brakes.
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Oddly, refiner operating ratio slipped from 92.7% to 88.7%. There had been rumors of disruptions, due to the winter storms, but those things are closely guarded secrets. 

In any case, it is clear consumption fell, after 2 weeks of gains. It is -7.2% below this time last year. Again weather may have been a big factor. 

National pump prices, according to AAA, have risen 12.6¢ from last week, and 18.9¢ the past 13 days. I would think some leveling off is in order, but what do I know?

Distillates continue to fall in the New England area...
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We're a long way from calling winter over, so that area is dangerously low, imho. It is currently lower than anytime the past 30 years, for end of December. Just saying. 

I have tagged politics, so here goes. I would comment on the Speaker funfest, but it would seem it is early in the ballgame. Don't compare this 9th vote to baseball. This is more like Cricket, which I don't understand and also goes for days and days. With nine days being the longest. 

C'mon guys and gals, you can break the record!!

Sunday, January 1, 2023

Early Thoughts For 2023

That lying scumbag...

Which one you ask? I forgot his name, but a congressman-elect. Again which one? The one from N.Y. (I think). But, which one? The one in news, regarding his mother dying on 9-11, and again a few years back. George Santos (googled) might be his name, but does anyone really know?

In any case, there is a bill supposedly being introduced to make lying a crime... for a politician. One can only imagine how jammed up the courts would be, with something like that. Frankly, I would wonder about a politician's integrity, that proposed such a thing. Classic misdirection, imho.

In any case, he was duly elected, so stop asking for do overs. You sound like Trump, which is not a good thing, imho. 

Yes, there may be some skullduggery around how he obtained his wealth, but once again... tread lightly. There are a lot of politicians seemingly getting rich on small salaries. 

An ethics investigation is warranted, but would seem to require investigators with ethics. 

One of those other lying scumbags...

I won't draw this out... Trump. There are many items on this list. After years of proclaiming Trump is a liar, the media and certain politicians acted surprised, that his tax returns did not match his public pronouncements. That was the only proof of his lying? Did he actually lie on his income tax returns? That is up for debate, discussion, whatever.

Then we have "authoritative" people saying that Trump can't run in 2024, because of charges of insurrection. Due process and they know it. That insurrection charge has to be litigated in court. I would expect the Justice Department to take it under their advisement, then slow walk it into early 2024, then claim it would be improper to consider it in an election year. 

That's fancy talk for keeping Trump in the public eye. Crazy! Not really, as he can't win in 2024. He can divide the conservative base and ensure a democratic landslide. That's really what it is all about. Even if the republicans wake up to this scenario... they are still left with Trump in the news, as it would be a flight of fancy to think Trump, would bow out gracefully.

A show trial will not happen, as the potential for a hung jury would loom large. Such an action would have massive implications for the republic, imho.

Of course, there is the possibility that all the conspiracy theories are proven as being true, but it would require quite a conspiracy to pull that off. 

Electoral College...

It is old, antiquated, no longer necessary, etc. Except it will continue to be around for a very long time. The closest threat, was the National Popular Vote attempt. Last I heard is was stuck at 195 and would require additional states with a combined 75 electoral votes... to push it over the finish line. After this last census, is 195 still the current number, or has it slipped a bit?

Of course, there is a constitutional amendment, which could be proposed. It would require 2/3's of each chamber in congress and then... 3/4's of the state legislatures must ratify the amendment. It has been nearly 31 years, since an amendment was ratified (27th) and it was a fluke... considering it was one of the original amendments proposed, back during the bill of rights days.

Prior to that, it was the 26th, or "right to vote" lowering the age to 18. That was over 51 years ago. 

If you are expecting an amendment or popular vote movement... you are in for a long wait.

The other option is if 3/4's of the states request a constitutional convention. Be very careful, as it was a constitutional convention called to remedy flaws in the Articles of Confederation... which led to an all new and current constitution. 

There is already disagreement as to whether this has happened. Apparently, some word differences in the wording of various state convention requests have held it at bay. As it stands right now... 19 states have passed the muster and another 22 are "thinking" about it. TPTB, do not want a constitutional convention, because everything is up for grabs, AND the potential for breaking apart the republic... is very real. 

Article VII

The Ratification of the Conventions of nine States, shall be sufficient for the Establishment of this Constitution between the States so ratifying the Same.

If you wanted to join, you had to ratify. Think about it.  

Makes for great fodder to pander to the public about the need for electoral reform in defense of democracy, BUT... those folks in Philadelphia, so long ago, nearly failed to create the current constitution... due to distrust of apportionment of Representatives. The small states were finding it unacceptable.

Then along came the Connecticut Compromise, which then lead to 2 senators per state and the electoral college for Presidential elections, which broke the deadlock. Something about "tyranny of the majority."

It ain't happening!


Thursday, December 29, 2022

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 29th 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks went up 718K barrels, from last week; Distillates up 283K Barrels; and Gasoline slid -3.1M barrels. The SPR slid another -3.5M barrels.

Inexplicably, gasoline consumption within the U.S., has risen for 2 consecutive weeks. This report is through 12-23, so the impacts of the winter storm would not be fully reflected in these numbers. Although there are people, such as myself, that made sure the tank was topped off.
The national average, per AAA, has risen +5.8¢ the past week. How much is due to the winter storm and refinery struggles... not really sure. There is a slight upward bias in gasoline pump prices.

Distillate stocks continue to slip in the New England region. Again, this data was pre blizzard and the blast of cold arctic air. 

A month ago, the news out of New England was dire, in regards to heating fuel and natural gas. 

On a side note, I was once an avid UK Wildcat BB fan, but slowly discontinued my allegiance, when the marketing major shifted the brand= to Cal's Cats. Last night, I decided to check out some twitter feeds about them and somehow the Twitter algorithm thinks I am once again an avid fan. Geez!


Saturday, December 24, 2022

Natural Gas Report, Dec. 24, 2022

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report Thursday, and I am just now getting around to commenting, and given the current climate, could be old news.

Such as the latest storage being from 12-16.

This paints a picture of almost normal for everywhere, except the West Coast. It will be a couple of reports, before a clearer picture of this current winter storm's impacts. BUT, the futures market seems to be ignoring these storms. Possibly due to the short duration. It's hard to believe, but temps will rebound to normal and above normal temps... by New Year's.


The futures market has dropped from last week. And I do mean... massively dropped. Why? Supply outpacing demand, would be one explanation... but why? Until I can grasp the why, I have to believe a rapidly slowing demand is the reason. Again... why?

I am talking about storage levels and demand to refill. The answer seems kind of obvious, when considering inventory levels and demand. It is likely felt that we have enough in storage to withstand this winter's demand, which means a lowering of stocks going into summer. 

That would be the normal cycle, except... what about next winter and the build of inventory?

I guess we should enjoy this while we can. Consider it the calm, before the next storm!

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 21st 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks slid -5.9 M barrels, from last week; Distillates slid -242K Barrels; and Gasoline increased +2.5M barrels. The SPR slid another -3.6M barrels.

Refining operation eased this past 4wk. average, although gasoline supplies increased. The loss seems to be in distillates. 

Gasoline consumption ticked up this week by 1.0% from last week after a month of declines. It is currently at -8.2% compared to same time last year. Gasoline, according to AAA, has declined -10.6¢ from last week. 


Diesel in New England, still remains on the low side and is declining from last week. This cold snap will change the numbers, imo. 

Not sure if gasoline prices will continue to slide, or when the draw on SPR numbers will stop, etc. 

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Natural Gas Report, Dec. 15, 2022

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today...

Continues to hold inventories above mid range of 5 year maximum and minimum. Regionally... a bit different story...
Mountain and Pacific regions experienced some drops, week to week and down from one year ago. That storm hitting into the west, is now moving hard into the east, so I would expect some drops in more regions on next week's report.

Overall, prices have edged up on UKG and TTF, with U.S. futures jumping about 9.5%.
Overall, that percentage is still in a rather narrow band, as is UKG and TTF. Forward looking, does not see an let up, as EU and UK reserves will likely be quite slim, by spring. A lot of Russian natural gas was used to build up those reserves, prior to NordStream being curtailed and then shut down. 

Not sure who will fill that gap in the 2023 runup to next winter. I would expect U.S. natural gas prices to shoot up during this period, as more LNG Tankers and Processing capacity comes on line. Then there is the matter of Russian LNG, which is still getting to the market, and quite possibly more than what the U.S. is shipping. Highly likely, it is more. 

While that might infuriate some, it would ease the run up of prices in U.S. Natural Gas.

Take your pick!

What To Make of the November Retail Trade Report

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, NOVEMBER 2022 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021.

Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2022 to October 2022 percent change was unrevised from up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2022, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from November 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year.

The biggest losers for the month...
  • Department stores
  • Furniture & home furn. Stores
  • Motor vehicle & parts dealers
  • Building material & garden eq. &
  • Electronics & appliance stores
Moderate Losers for the month...
  • Non-store retailers
  • Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores
There seems to be a bit of concern, as the sales rate fell more than anticipated. How much is seasonal and how much is consumers pinching pennies? 
  • We knew, or should have known, that Motor Vehicles were slowing, especially in the used car market, with lower prices. 
  • Building materials, etc. would seem likely to slip this time of year.
When we consider this release as being current dollars and then adjust for real dollar purchases... the line has been fairly flat for several months. Compared to last year in "inflation adjusted" dollars, this month is -0.2%. 
Of course, we must always remember that data may be adjusted in following months, as more data becomes available. So everything I have mentioned is based on incomplete data. Not very helpful, in my humble opinion, but the best available information. 

I don not understand the hoopla around this report. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVI

Really not seeing any major shifts, although the Minnesota margin widened ever so slightly. Still too difficult to read. The unadjusted poll...