Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.
Sunday, April 21, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV
Thursday, April 4, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII
Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.
There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.
Not sure what the hoopla is about.
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XII
It's been a couple of weeks, since the last review. Not a lot has changed, but there were some minor adjustments.
The republican edge in Arizona, narrowed a bit (-0.2%), but still in the slight range beyond the margin of error.
The republican edge in Pennsylvania, increased a bit (+0.8), which moved it from the Toss Up category back to slight, with it being just above the margin of error.
Saturday, March 2, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XI
I said I would not post another election article, unless there were changes. I guess I lied.
Sunday, February 18, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part X
The polls have altered the landscape, ever so slightly. While there have been several polls, none really changed much, except for Nevada, back on January 11.
Thursday, January 11, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part IX
I previously posted that unless the EVs changed, I would attempt to avoid posting. They have changed.
The main change was Pennsylvania easing a bit from the (R) candidate. Simply put... the polls indicate a slight edge to DEM, but historically has under-reported REP votes in general elections, by 3%. Even with that latter adjustment, the result falls into the margin of error.
Friday, January 5, 2024
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VIII
Texas seems to be in the toss-up column, although not sure why. This is somewhat due to the tendency of polls to slightly understate the democrat votes. Still, the state falls into republican territory quite comfortably. Now it is R-189 and D-203.
Florida is next up and the polls for the state, tend to slightly overstate the democrat support, while understating the republican support. Thus Florida with its 30 EVs moves the needle to R-219 and D-203.
Virginia (13) keeps getting into the toss-up category. It puzzles me as to why, as it will very likely vote the democrat candidate and has a stellar polling v result score, imo. Thus R-219 and D-216.
I will lump Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) together, as they both have been consistently correct in polling matching outcomes. Polls seem to indicate a fairly strong republican tendency, which translates to R-246 and D-216.
Might as well get Wisconsin (10) out of the way. Of all the states with polling discrepancies, compared to results... Wisconsin is very high on the list, with a 6.5 variance, which tends to favor republicans. Polling greatly underestimates republican support and overestimates democrat support, when compared to general election results. Having stated that, the narrow polling margin, which is slightly in favor of Trump, indicates R-256 and D-216.
That leaves 66 electoral votes to decide the election.
I haven't even gotten to North Carolina (16), which appears almost certain to fall into the R column. Now it is R-272 and D-216.
Now for Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19). Two states, which closely follow Wisconsin in under-reporting republican support and overstating democrat support. That both states are indicating a republican advantage, before looking at previous polling errors, it seems appropriate to throw them into the repubican slot. R-306 and D-216.
Nevada you say. Nevada (6) is currently leaning R, but previous history, indicates under-reporting democrat support. Still a slight edge for R, but very slight. Now it is R-306, D-216, and T-6.
Then there is the curious case of Minnesota (10), which has historically been polled with Rs being underestimated, and Ds being overestimated, compared to general election. That polling is currently very narrow, which could possibly be a problem for Dems.
R-306, D-216, and T-16.
There is a lot of time left to change things. Of course, there is always time to change things... until time runs out.
I will resist the temptation to post frequently, but if those EVs change, then I might jump in.
Friday, December 22, 2023
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VII
Onward I go into the endless fun of politics.
As stated previously, yes the polls are wrong, but in what way? Oddly, the polls that were wrong, were consistently wrong in both 2016 and 2020.
As can be noted, Arizona and Virgina were downright accurate. Georgia, New York and Washington near perfect, each with a very slight variance benefitting one party.
Some states had very poor polls to results variance. This could be attributable to a few factors...
- Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, in a heavily republican state?
- Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, in a heavily democrat state?
- Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, when victory is assured?
- Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, when victory is assured?
- Perhaps the polling does not reflect the results, due to individuals hiding their true opinions, due to fear.
Wisconsin was a clear Clinton victory, until it wasn't. Wisconsin was an even more clear Biden victory, but it was downright scary close.
That same scenario played out in Pennsylvania and to some extent Michigan.
Naturally, some states are already decided, in my opinion. It is the so called battleground states that are intriquing.
Thursday, December 14, 2023
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VI
Here we go...
Trump currently holds a 44.9% to 42.7% lead in the polls. Of course the polls are always wrong, even though Biden led from the start in 2020, although the start was in spring of that year... so a bit to go.
Thursday, December 7, 2023
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part V
Here is another stab at the 2024 election. Trump appears to be ahead with polling numbers of 44.1%. compared to Biden's 43.3%. Very tight indeed, until polling of individual states relative to electoral votes is considered.
Took a hard look at the virtual locks, in regards to electoral votes, which resulted with Biden having 212 electoral votes locked up, and Trump with 149.
When I say "locked up", I am referring to places like California, Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, etc. It should be obvious whether they are blue or red. So stencil them in.
However, in 2024, there are some hard leans, as well.
Florida has Trump with a 9 point lead in the polls. Consider where the polls were in 2016 and 2020, the compare to results. That 9 point lead is significant.
Again, Georgia was not really that far out of whack in the 2016 and 2020 polls, so the polls for this year having Trump with a 7 point lead... is quite meaningful.
That trend continues with the other "hard leans" listed, which results in Trump holding a 251~216 lead at this point.
So Trump just needs 19 of 71 remaining EVs. The opposite of that... Biden needs 54 of the remaing EVs.
Turning it around might be possible for Biden.
However, Ukraine is still an issue on his watch, as well as that Middle East mess. Not seeing any upward lift being provided by those.
Economy, could be an issue, but not a lot of upward lift to be seen in this area. Sure, GDP was up 5.2% annualized, but don't forget a massive adjustment was just undertaken, by moving the numbers from 2012 dollars... to 2017 dollars. I alluded to this in a previous article.
On January 25, 2024, the BEA will likely report something in the 1.5%~2.0% annualized GDP growth. A lot of whining will take place about how the economy has gone from robust to anemic. Both are rather silly, but the resultant public opinion will not likely provide any huge boost for Biden.
That report will be followed about 3 weeks later, with the CPI report for January.
There is the inflation issue, of which will be largely cheered with both the November (DEC release) and December (JAN Release) data releases. Both of which will indicate a shallowing month to month rate of inflation.
However, both months will be a result of significantly lower gasoline prices, which is a seasonal norm. While making up a small percentage of consumer spending, the impact will be enough to bring month to month to zero and very likely negative.
Once again, that news turns south with that February release of January's CPI data. Why? Those falling gasoline prices will be in the rear view mirror, and will be rising... We are getting into the heart of political silly season by then.
Frankly, rising gas prices will bring out the grocery prices are much higher crowd. It may well be, but this is about the attitude of voters... which won't be uplifting for the Biden campaign. Voters tend to remember things from days past, when they look at the grocery receipts and those numbers on the gasoline pump.
So not a lot of upside going forward, imho... for a Biden rebound.
Remember, the perception needs to change for Biden to reverse his current dismal ratings.
Sunday, January 1, 2023
Early Thoughts For 2023
That lying scumbag...
Which one you ask? I forgot his name, but a congressman-elect. Again which one? The one from N.Y. (I think). But, which one? The one in news, regarding his mother dying on 9-11, and again a few years back. George Santos (googled) might be his name, but does anyone really know?
In any case, there is a bill supposedly being introduced to make lying a crime... for a politician. One can only imagine how jammed up the courts would be, with something like that. Frankly, I would wonder about a politician's integrity, that proposed such a thing. Classic misdirection, imho.
In any case, he was duly elected, so stop asking for do overs. You sound like Trump, which is not a good thing, imho.
Yes, there may be some skullduggery around how he obtained his wealth, but once again... tread lightly. There are a lot of politicians seemingly getting rich on small salaries.
An ethics investigation is warranted, but would seem to require investigators with ethics.
One of those other lying scumbags...
I won't draw this out... Trump. There are many items on this list. After years of proclaiming Trump is a liar, the media and certain politicians acted surprised, that his tax returns did not match his public pronouncements. That was the only proof of his lying? Did he actually lie on his income tax returns? That is up for debate, discussion, whatever.
Then we have "authoritative" people saying that Trump can't run in 2024, because of charges of insurrection. Due process and they know it. That insurrection charge has to be litigated in court. I would expect the Justice Department to take it under their advisement, then slow walk it into early 2024, then claim it would be improper to consider it in an election year.
That's fancy talk for keeping Trump in the public eye. Crazy! Not really, as he can't win in 2024. He can divide the conservative base and ensure a democratic landslide. That's really what it is all about. Even if the republicans wake up to this scenario... they are still left with Trump in the news, as it would be a flight of fancy to think Trump, would bow out gracefully.
A show trial will not happen, as the potential for a hung jury would loom large. Such an action would have massive implications for the republic, imho.
Of course, there is the possibility that all the conspiracy theories are proven as being true, but it would require quite a conspiracy to pull that off.
Electoral College...
It is old, antiquated, no longer necessary, etc. Except it will continue to be around for a very long time. The closest threat, was the National Popular Vote attempt. Last I heard is was stuck at 195 and would require additional states with a combined 75 electoral votes... to push it over the finish line. After this last census, is 195 still the current number, or has it slipped a bit?
Of course, there is a constitutional amendment, which could be proposed. It would require 2/3's of each chamber in congress and then... 3/4's of the state legislatures must ratify the amendment. It has been nearly 31 years, since an amendment was ratified (27th) and it was a fluke... considering it was one of the original amendments proposed, back during the bill of rights days.
Prior to that, it was the 26th, or "right to vote" lowering the age to 18. That was over 51 years ago.
If you are expecting an amendment or popular vote movement... you are in for a long wait.
The other option is if 3/4's of the states request a constitutional convention. Be very careful, as it was a constitutional convention called to remedy flaws in the Articles of Confederation... which led to an all new and current constitution.
There is already disagreement as to whether this has happened. Apparently, some word differences in the wording of various state convention requests have held it at bay. As it stands right now... 19 states have passed the muster and another 22 are "thinking" about it. TPTB, do not want a constitutional convention, because everything is up for grabs, AND the potential for breaking apart the republic... is very real.
Article VII
The Ratification of the Conventions of nine States, shall be sufficient for the Establishment of this Constitution between the States so ratifying the Same.
If you wanted to join, you had to ratify. Think about it.
Makes for great fodder to pander to the public about the need for electoral reform in defense of democracy, BUT... those folks in Philadelphia, so long ago, nearly failed to create the current constitution... due to distrust of apportionment of Representatives. The small states were finding it unacceptable.
Then along came the Connecticut Compromise, which then lead to 2 senators per state and the electoral college for Presidential elections, which broke the deadlock. Something about "tyranny of the majority."
It ain't happening!
Review of March 2024 data, 1Q GDP, PCE and personal income
The monthly summary is not so wonderful, incomparison... Inside all that pink is some troubling food related issues. Even though energy is s...
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As you know by now , it was ugly for consumer's future prospects of inflation. Yes, a lot of this will get passed on to us. It is a se...
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via GIPHY I've belonged to various websites over the years and naturally gravitated towards those websites for older folks. These are th...
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This week's full report . Indicators have aligned to suggest upward movement in consumption. Pump prices have generally stabilized, bu...