Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 19 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +8.4M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.9M Barrels; and Gasoline up 3.5M barrels. The SPR slid a meager -1K barrels. 

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Consumption of gasoline continues its slide, with year over year down -4.9% and now down -1.3% from last year's lows. 

Refinery operation slipped to a 4 week average of 85.3%, from last week's 4 wk. average of 86.7%

National pump prices, according to AAA, have risen +10.7¢ from last week. Current futures pricing, indicates a bit of upward trend developing. even though domestic consumption is slipping and inventories rising. This against a backdrop of lower refinery operation. 

We are still exporting some hefty quantities of gasoline. 

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I have distillates in the title, although not much change overall, except in the East Coast numbers, which is more Central Atlantic.

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So far... so good!

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 11 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +19.0M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.1M Barrels; and Gasoline up 4.1M barrels. The SPR slid another -800K barrels. 

Consumption continues to drift lower on the four week average for gasoline.

Oddly, the refiner operating ratio slipped from 88.7% to 86.7%. There had been rumors of disruptions due to the winter storms, but those things are closely guarded secrets.

In any case, consumption has fallen for two consecutive weeks. It is -5.8% below this time last year. Again weather may have been a significant factor. 

National pump prices, according to AAA, have fallen -1.8¢ from last week. Futures popped higher today, but who knows what will happen tomorrow.

I would suggest pump prices are nearing the bottom. A lot depends on whether there is a recession and how deep it is.

Distillates edged up in the New England area...

Remarkably, the New England data improved from last week but is still below last year and... historical norms.

This improvement may or may not continue, as we are still three weeks away from Punxsutawney Phil telling us if spring is over or not.

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 5 2023

Habits, both good and bad, are hard to break, and so is doing this report for nearly the past 20 years. There is a reason I started it, but not sure there is a reason to continue. 

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +1.7M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.4M Barrels; and Gasoline slid -300K barrels. The SPR slid another -2.7M barrels.

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After all the ups and downs of inventories, the day's supply increased across the board. Which can only mean consumption tapped the brakes.

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Oddly, refiner operating ratio slipped from 92.7% to 88.7%. There had been rumors of disruptions, due to the winter storms, but those things are closely guarded secrets. 

In any case, it is clear consumption fell, after 2 weeks of gains. It is -7.2% below this time last year. Again weather may have been a big factor. 

National pump prices, according to AAA, have risen 12.6¢ from last week, and 18.9¢ the past 13 days. I would think some leveling off is in order, but what do I know?

Distillates continue to fall in the New England area...

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We're a long way from calling winter over, so that area is dangerously low, imho. It is currently lower than anytime the past 30 years, for end of December. Just saying. 

I have tagged politics, so here goes. I would comment on the Speaker funfest, but it would seem it is early in the ballgame. Don't compare this 9th vote to baseball. This is more like Cricket, which I don't understand and also goes for days and days. With nine days being the longest. 

C'mon guys and gals, you can break the record!!

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 29th 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks went up 718K barrels, from last week; Distillates up 283K Barrels; and Gasoline slid -3.1M barrels. The SPR slid another -3.5M barrels.

Inexplicably, gasoline consumption within the U.S., has risen for 2 consecutive weeks. This report is through 12-23, so the impacts of the winter storm would not be fully reflected in these numbers. Although there are people, such as myself, that made sure the tank was topped off.

The national average, per AAA, has risen +5.8¢ the past week. How much is due to the winter storm and refinery struggles... not really sure. There is a slight upward bias in gasoline pump prices.

Distillate stocks continue to slip in the New England region. Again, this data was pre blizzard and the blast of cold arctic air. 

A month ago, the news out of New England was dire, in regards to heating fuel and natural gas. 

On a side note, I was once an avid UK Wildcat BB fan, but slowly discontinued my allegiance, when the marketing major shifted the brand= to Cal's Cats. Last night, I decided to check out some twitter feeds about them and somehow the Twitter algorithm thinks I am once again an avid fan. Geez!

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 21st 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks slid -5.9 M barrels, from last week; Distillates slid -242K Barrels; and Gasoline increased +2.5M barrels. The SPR slid another -3.6M barrels.

Refining operation eased this past 4wk. average, although gasoline supplies increased. The loss seems to be in distillates. 

Gasoline consumption ticked up this week by 1.0% from last week after a month of declines. It is currently at -8.2% compared to same time last year. Gasoline, according to AAA, has declined -10.6¢ from last week. 

Diesel in New England, still remains on the low side and is declining from last week. This cold snap will change the numbers, imo. 

Not sure if gasoline prices will continue to slide, or when the draw on SPR numbers will stop, etc. 

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 14th 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks rose 10.2 M barrels, from last week; Distillates increased another +1.3M Barrels; and Gasoline increased +4.5M barrels. The SPR slid -4.8M barrels.

Refining continues at a high rate of efficiency, as the inventory gasoline, distillates, etc. continued to grow. Even in spite of continued high exports of gasoline. Gasoline consumption slipped -9.5% from year ago levels on the 4 week average and another -1.8% from previous week's average, to a level of last February.

Pump prices continue to fall and might just make that $3 national average at Christmas. However, I may just fill up the tank this weekend, as I think the floor is near in regards to that national average, in my humble opinion. ($3.08? Which is 13¢ above my estimate last week)

The overall is in decent shape, year over year, but a couple of areas are still under stress. While I am not showing a graph of the significant drop in distillate consumption, it does raise the question of why is both gasoline and diesel consumption dropping so much in December, instead of the usual late January to February slump?

Along with that thought, is the impact energy has on the overall inflation picture and what happens when it bottoms and begins to rise again? But then, why is it falling so much at this point? Lower consumption? Great, but why?

I always hear about how the FED watches this report, or that report, etc. I found it odd, that no mention was made of the FED's own Median CPI. It was 7.0%, year over year, just like last month. NO CHANGE! Am I believe the FED creates a report, that they do not watch?

I have so many questions.

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 7th 2022

Another weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks fell another -5.1 M barrels, from last week; Distillates increased another +6.1M Barrels; and Gasoline increased +5.2M barrels.

SPR slipped -2M barrels since last week's estimate, but the Crude, Petroleum, Petroleum Products + SPR gained 4M barrels. 

Refining continues at a high rate of efficiency, as the inventory gasoline, distillates, etc. continued to grow. Even in spite of continued high exports of gasoline. Gasoline consumption slipped -7.8% from year ago levels on the 4 week average and -1.8% from previous week's average.

The national average for gasoline has slid -4.0% from last week and +1.5% above same time last year, which mirrors WTI crude from one year ago. 

Last week, I commented about my doubt of pump prices falling to the $3 level by Christmas. I was wrong and am happy about that incorrectness. I can now see it in the $2.95 nationally. The why is surprising to me, with consumption falling as fast as it is. Not sure what to make of that. 

Of course, my glass is half empty mindset, leads me to think bad thoughts. Best I can do, is hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Distillates and Diesel...

While there was some improvement, certain areas, such as New England... is not fully whole. No doubt the reason for this is being politicized, I am a bit wary of the motivations of behind the scenes actors... in regards to all this. Basically, A truth is not the same as the whole truth. A fact is not the same... as all the facts. 

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Nov. 30th 2022

Another weekly EIA report.

In a nutshell, Crude stocks fell -12.5M barrels; Distillates increased +3.5M Barrels; and Gasoline increased +2.7M barrels.

Gasoline consumption is slowing and after a slight rise a few weeks back... is resuming the downward trend. The price at the pump is also falling, although exports are keeping the prices from falling any faster. (See above chart for gasoline imports/exports) 

I have been reading reports of the national average falling below $3 by Christmas. I can see an average of $3.15, but any more is doubtful, imo. 

On the other hand, some hysteria over more potential OPEC+ cuts, a sudden drop in the dollar, and whatever the EU is about to do... will cause big problems in the energy market. Yet the futures seems to be holding steady. 

My guess is hysterical headlines make for great click bait. 

Diesel and Gasoline, Nov. 23, 2022

 Another round of data from the EIA.gov...

Crude Inventories slipped -3.7M barrels, with distillates up +1.7M barrels and gasoline up +3.0M barrels. Prices did slip in all categories the past week.

Consumption slipped as well, after moving up two weeks straight.

Even distillate stocks edged up in all areas, except the left, er... west coast.

A lot seems to be hinging on December the 5th, and price caps. Not sure how that will work, or if it will work. It seems, it was telegraphed too far in advance and the opponent has been preparing a counter.

There is still 390.5M barrels of crude in the SPR, down -257.6M barrels from two years ago, or -39.7%. 

Of course, how much of that 390.5M barrels remaining is usable... is not fully known. It is stored in salt caverns and there will be some spoilage. 

Diesel and Gasoline, Nov. 16, 2022

Another week, another data dump from EIA.Gov.

Crude inventory slipped -5.4M barrels; Distillates up +1.1M barrels; Gasoline up +2.2M barrels. Prices for barrels of WTI, slid -3.65; Highway diesel eased -2¢ per gallon; residential heating oil was down -10.8¢ per gallon; and gasoline was down -3.4¢ per gallon. 

Gasoline consumption, seems to be heading up and possibly moving above the 3 month moving average at current pace. Why it is happening, is beyond my scope of knowledge, although the retail numbers from today, seem to support an increase in gasoline consumption. Maybe with cold weather, people are warming up their cars, before driving.

Diesel seem to still be an issue, as inventories remain low, especially in the Northeast.

I would suggest that areas other than the northeast, may slowly build, as agricultural usage should begin to ease with the bulk of crops being harvested. It should be noted the dry weather in many of these areas have accelerated harvest and the need for drying the crops down has been reduced. 

Not sure that is the reason for propane stocks rising, but works for me, as inventory is well above this time last year.

I did add politics as a tag, but I won't say anything until this election is finally over. Does anyone know when that will be. 😎

What's Up With Diesel and Gasoline

The election might be over, but the vote counting, and arguing will continue... until the next election. In the meantime, energy prices will continue to hit the consumer pocketbook, with little to no relief in sight. [Data derived from EIA.GOV]

So, a review of a chart, I have published since August, 2006.

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Crude inventories are up 3.9M Barrels from last week, with Gasoline down 500K and distillates down 900K. Clearly there is enough Crude, but refiners are working at a fairly high rate... to export 3.5M barrels of gasoline more than imports, over the previous week. Same for distillates, with 7.8M barrels exported over imports.

I keep hearing about demand destruction in gasoline, and yes, it is much lower than one year ago. 

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However, based on a 12 year timeline... hard to discern.

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I would suggest that consumers are more mindful of gasoline prices and consumption, but are also being hammered by various other categories, such as food, which is not slowing in the upward trajectory and then there is the "core". You have to go back a number of years to see that core at current levels.

Now to the Northeast and distillate stocks...

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Not much in the way of improvement and actually a bit of slippage. It is not unusual to see the inventory this low in New England, at the tail end of the heating season, but never this low, at this time of season... dating back to records of November, 1990.

Review of EIA's This Week in Petroleum, October 26 2022

Another week, another report. This Week in Petroleum from the EIA.gov.

Click to Enlarge*The Net- U.S. only is adjusted for 5,070,000 barrels deducted from the SPR. 

From last week, the crude inventory increased 2.6M barrels; distillates rose 170K; gasoline inventory slipped 1.5M barrels. 

For the reporting period, WTI was $85.32, compared to year ago of $84.68. Up 64¢ or +0.08%.

Gasoline at the pump, however was $3.769 compared to last year's $3.383, a difference of +38.3¢ or +11.3% . Spot prices last year was $2.517, compared to this year's $2.916 a difference of 39.9¢ or +15.8%.

When it comes to highway diesel the current period's price is $5.316, compared to last year's $3.611. A whopping difference of $1.705 or +47.3%.

The problem with diesel fuel is inventory being low throughout much of the country, but is significantly lower in the Northeast and Central Atlantic...

Click to Enlarge- Distillate inventory

Not seeing any relief until demand falls a bit further, which only makes more available for export.

Review of EIA's This Week in Petroleum, October 19 2022

Here is the report.

Here is some of the stuff I track...

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From last week, the crude inventory slipped 1.7M barrels; distillates rose 124K; gasoline inventory slipped 114K. 

For the reporting period, WTI was $85.61, compared to year ago of $82.28. Up $3.33 or +4.0%.

Gasoline at the pump, however was $3.871 compared to last year's $3.332, a difference of +53.9¢ or +16.2% . Spot prices last year was $2.435, compared to this year's $2.6309 a difference of 19.59¢ or +8.0%.

When it comes to highway diesel the current period's price is $5.339, compared to last year's $3.671. A whopping difference of $1.668 or +45.4%.

It should be noted that those stocks are down significantly along the east coast, especially New England.

The Administration has ordered up another 15M barrels from SPR... to supposedly keep the lid on gasoline prices. That brings the total announced and pending sales to 230M barrels, even though the data has that size of reduction already having taken place, with 1M barrel a day having 17 more days. Clearly, I missed a memo.

Considering the normal crude inventory is 9M barrels above last year's mark, not sure what is hoped to be achieved. Gasoline inventories are down 8.5M from this time last year, which would suggest refineries are the bottleneck... and therefore the pricing issue.

But then we have exported 60.8M barrels of gasoline more than we have imported. (48M barrels since March). Last year was the reverse and then some, (57.8M imports more than exports) during the March to current.

A lot can be explained away as supporting our allies by filling the gap left from Russian Sanctions. Releasing more SPR doesn't seem to be the right choice, although we are expected to be gullible enough to swallow that rationale. 

I doubt the officials are as dumb as their constituents. I suspect the Ukrainian war and subsequent sanctions were the impetus for much of this, but I suspect the focus has shifted to a convenient cover to wrest the nation off fossil fuels, by depleting the SPR. Just my opinion. 

I had opined in an earlier column the SPR should be reduced, but I was thinking in terms of 10~15 years, NOT the current pace of 2~3 years. 

As I have previously stated, this 15M barrel dump will likely be the last for awhile. IF the republicans take the house, I would expect a massive drive to build the SPR back up, which would increase gas prices and the republicans can take the blame. 

This is politics, as practiced by both of parties. 

Review of EIA Weekly Report for September 8th 2022

The EIA released the latest weekly report, and there is a continuing sliver of demand destruction. The numbers do seem to suggest it, with the day's supply of 24.1 from last week jumping up to 24.5 on this week's report.

Gasoline Inventories rose 333K barrels from last week. This is spite of exports being 1M Bbl. more than imports.

The market for gasoline is still declining, and looks to continue with this report. According the the AAA, the national average has slipped 7.8¢ from last week, and my guess... there is room for another 56¢, although weather may become an obstacle at this point. 

Speaking of weather, the models aren't showing anything of T.S. variety hitting the U.S. East or Gulf Coasts out to the 3rd week of September. Keeping fingers crossed. 

Crude stocks increase 8.8M BBLS from last week and exports of crude and petroleum products outpaced imports by 4.8M BBLS. WTI is down about $3.50 from last week. Basically, back to End of January numbers. Of course, there is some rumbling of OPEC+ slashing production by 1M barrels per day, as well as suggestions of further SPR releases.

Diesel fuel continues to be problematic in some areas...

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For the rest of the picture...

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This is likely my last weekly review of the report. I will continue to track, but blogging about it has become somewhat tiresome. I see what I see and understand what I see, but conveying those thoughts in a coherent manner is the issue.

Review of EIA Weekly Report for August 31st 2022

The EIA released the latest weekly report, and there is a continuing sliver of demand destruction. The numbers do seem to suggest it, although the day's supply of 24.3 from last week slipped to 24.2 on this week's report.

Gasoline Inventories slid -1.172M barrels from last week. That limited loss in day's supply was in spite of a healthy 3+MBbls of export more than import. Yet the prices continue to slip.

The market for gasoline is still declining, and looks to continue with this report. According the the AAA, the national average has slipped 4¢ from last week, and my guess... there is room for another 40¢, although weather may become an obstacle at this point. 

Speaking of weather, the models aren't showing anything of T.S. variety hitting the U.S. East or Gulf Coasts in the next couple of weeks. Keeping fingers crossed. 

Crude stocks fell 3.3M BBLS from last week and exports of crude and petroleum products outpaced imports by 14.4M BBLS. WTI is down about $5 from last week. Basically, back to where it was 2 weeks ago.

Diesel fuel continues to edge up, as the national inventory is -18% from year ago levels. 

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The situation is indeed dire on the East Coast, especially in New England, as well as the Central Atlantic. As I have stated elsewhere, much of this blame can be laid at the feet of certain folks in a place called Albany. Granted, future issues could be alleviated by Congress repealing the Jones Act... but fixing stupid is a whole other ballgame, imo.

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In summation, we have inventories falling, gasoline prices falling, Russia shutting Nordstream for a few days, and European and U.K. natural gas prices falling. Clearly, I do not have a handle on any of this... to understand the whys!

End of the month, and time to take a bit of a break... or maybe not!

Review of EIA Weekly Report for August 24th 2022

The EIA released the latest weekly report, and there is a sliver of demand destruction. The numbers do seem to suggest it and the day's supply of 23.8 from last week has edged up to 24.3 on this week's report.

Gasoline Inventories slipped a mere -27,000 barrels from last week. That gain in day's supply was in spite of a healthy 2MBbls of export more than import

The market for gasoline is still declining, and looks to continue with this report. According the the AAA, the national average has slipped 6¢ from last week, and my guess... there is room for another 24¢, although weather may become an obstacle at this point. 

Crude stocks fell 3.2M BBLS from last week and exports of crude and petroleum products outpaced imports by 2.2M BBLS. WTI is up about $6 from last week.

Diesel fuel at the pump broke the string of price drops as of this morning. 

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The day's supply continues to slip in this category. 

Natural gas propelled upward, but is now falling back slightly. The Freeport restart has been moved back to November. 

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It has become popular to used the term Barrels of Oil Equivalent, so simply multiply the above dollar values X 5.8. You can then use whatever forex conversion method to achieve the price in your currency.

While most of my articles contain opinions, I will now vent...

Generally speaking, countries throughout the world and their lackeys (Media) point out the failures of someone else, to deflect problems within. It is sort of in the vein of "we don't have so bad, when you consider how things are in that other country."

The issue in Europe over natural gas prices, does not get a lot of mention in the U.S. mainstream media. I expect that to change as the talk surrounding electric bills and some 20M households are behind on those bills. 

While natural gas is nowhere as high in the U.S. as elsewhere... some things that pique my interest.

• Natural gas is likely to surge come reopening of Freeport on November 1st..
• 40% of U.S. electricity is derived from natural gas.
• The SPR release is slated to end on October 31st.
• OPEC is discussing a reduction of crude, to stabilize the market. 
• Last month's CPI at 0.0% month to month will likely be repeat for August. Solely based on gasoline prices falling. (Nothing else) (The gasoline index fell 7.7 percent in July and offset increases in the food and shelter indexes, resulting in the all items index being unchanged over the month. - BLS)
• Electricity and N/G are up 15% and 30% from last year, and rising fast.
• Food prices have not indicated any moderation of prices.
• There are already 20M households behind on energy bills.

I have no doubt, that by January, the European issues with heating, economy, etc. will be a daily feature in U.S. media. Conversely, European media will no doubt be talking about the dire situation of poor Americans. 

It's all deflection from misery in the home country, imo.  

One other note, the gasoline index appears to be headed for a near -10% fall from July, yet the all items index, will likely be 0.0%. The fall in gasoline is masking inflation in other areas.

Not sure what the winter weather forecast might be, but morale might be dark and gloomy in many areas.

Review of EIA Weekly Report for August 17th 2022

The EIA released the latest weekly report, and I am still not seeing demand destruction. Yes, from this time last year, but it is hard to make a call on demand destruction, when the days supply of gasoline falls from 24.9 last week, to 23.8 for this week's report. 

Yes, Gasoline Inventories fell 4.6M BBLS from last week's report. Might the imports/exports of gasoline have something to do with that. We did export 1.3M BBLS more than import... last week. I am not sure where all those numbers citing demand destruction are coming from. 

The market for gasoline has shot up 2¢, as of this writing. That is down from last week, by about 14¢. Still,  NOT seeing demand destruction. Crude stocks fell 7M BBLS from last week and exports of crude and petroleum products outpaced imports by 19M BBLS. WTI is down about $5 from last week.

Somehow, someone, somewhere... demand is still there, although the pricing isn't. A very mixed message, as far as I am concerned. 

I keep hearing how crude and gasoline demand are falling. Then I hear how the inventories are falling and prices should go up for crude and gasoline. Somewhat contradictory and appears mostly false.

A week ago, the stock market ,said to be anticipating a more dovish stance, based on cooling inflation numbers and as a result... rallied. Today, the FED minutes suggest a dovish stance and the market is slipping. 

I have come to the conclusion that I am not alone... in not knowing what is going on. 

Review of EIA Weekly Report for August 10th 2022

The EIA released the latest weekly report, and I am still not seeing demand destruction. Yes, from this time last year, but it is hard to make a call on demand destruction, when the days supply of gasoline falls from 26.2 last week, to 24.9 for this week's report. 

Yes, Gasoline Inventories fell nearly 5.0M BBLS from last week's report. Might the imports/exports of gasoline have something to do with that. We did export 3.2M BBLS more than import... last week. I am not sure where all those numbers citing demand destruction are coming from. 

The market for gasoline has shot up 11¢, as of this writing. Not the only one... NOT seeing demand destruction. 

Yes, I could be looking at all this wrong, but it would take some proof, that I haven't seen

On to the Natural Gas stuff...

I have about give up on trying to understand the European (including U.K.) situation. I still track it and read about it, but figure there is enough to worry about on this side of the Atlantic. Although... whether or not we in the U.S. are in a recession or about to be, it is becoming very clear that the other side of the Atlantic will almost definitely be. Does it aggravate our situation?

While the U.S. natural gas prices are back on the rise, I would expect a bit of a jump going forward, depending on whether the Freeport facility gets up to full run. It has stated early October start-up. Plus, Calcasieu Pass has been granted approval for blocks 5 and 6, whatever that means.

Meanwhile, here's hoping for a mild winter...

We are staying ahead of the curve, so that is good.