It's Been Awhile

Finally some more reports coming out from the government services, with PPI and Retail Sales. Granted it is still a month behind, as October data should be out. 

Inflation did edge up in September on the CPI and PPI. Real Earnings were recently released as well. The latter slipped down a bit, with the exception on weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory.

Retails sales edged up before inflation adjustments, which let it slip a bit.

Looking inside the numbers, it would appear "Brick and Mortar" department stores continue to slide, as well as those companies that sell brick and mortar...building supplies etc. It would also appear the hobbies are taking a hit as well... sporting goods, etc.

Week Ending Report-August 16th, 2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

CPI

Real earnings

Petroleum

Producer Price Index

Retail Sales

The inflation report was rather benign and met expectations. The oddity was in the CPI-W, which directly relates to C.O.L.A. It was a mild 2.5% y/y. The previous projection was a 2.6%~2.7% cola, which now moves a bit down to 2.5%~2.7%.

The Real Earnings moved up and is +1.2% above one year ago. As this is inflation adjusted, the earnings are +3.7% above one year ago.

The petroleum report shows an increase in both crude and distillate supplies. Gasoline supply edged a shade lower.

Produce Price Index was rather ugly, with a substantial jump across the board. Just as last month's PPI foreshadowed a benign July CPI... August will be a wake up call, imo. On top of that, the forecast for PPI is even higher... going forward.

I am not exactly happy, as my current CPI is 3.0% and possibly climbing, with COLA far behind.

The current status of the report card...

Advance Retail Sales

Not a bad report on the surface.

OPINION time:

In a previous post I questioned the accuracy of some government reports. The retail sales would be one example. The issue being with revisions. Below is a snapshot of cumulative revisions of advance sales going back about 2 1/2 years. Revisions are not unheard of, but the pattern is suggestive of something being off. 

The pattern HAD been the previous couple of months being revised downward, which inevitably shows a brighter current report. This had been almost a monthly occurrence, of the past couple of years. Now it should be noted that historically, April has been an across the board revision of everything.

Going forward, it will be interesting to observe if the revision pattern continues, although the monthly pattern has broken towards upward revisions for previous month's data, which would suppress the joy of a current report. It does seem suspicious, imho.

While the overall picture seems okay, with the exception of the PPI... a glimmer of hope seems to be in the PPI being a month blip, as following forecasts indicate flat to negative.

Week Ending Report-August 9th, 2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

Trade Report

Petroleum Report

The international trade numbers are self explanatory in the linked report.

As for the petroleum report, usage of gasoline continues to drift downward, with pump prices in a narrow range. 

There is the potential for a hurricane in the next couple of weeks, but it is largely forecast to be near the east coast and not the gulf coast, or whatever you want to call it.

OPINION time:

Barely any movement in inflation expectations, although a slight move upward from now into the 4th quarter is in the offing. 

3rd Qtr. GDP projections remain positive, although barely, with 4th quarter in the same range and an uptick by first of year.

I guess if I were a president of a country at war and had suspended elections, knowing I wouldn't be re-elected... I would likely resist any form of peace, even if my citizens continued to die. Especially if the fighting was supported with foreign tax dollars... whether directly or through military munitions.

Week Ending Report-8-02-2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

GDP

Personal Income and Outlays

Weekly Crude Oil Report

The GDP exceeded forecasts, but not really by that much. It was just as much about the trade and services deficit, as was the first quarter negative. 

Personal Income and outlays was mostly positive. Here is the July Report card, which includes several variables.

A lot of pink, which is inflation heating up, but oddly... the PPI seems to be slipping. So maybe inflation is cooling. 

Also, of note... the report card was not updated to PCE revisions for prior months.

Here is the latest...

Here was previous month, with revisions highlighted...

There are always some revisions of Government numbers, but the past few years have been quite noticeable, imo. More on my opinion later.

The petroleum report continues to astound me, as U.S. consumption is well below last year.

OPINION time:

The firing of a government official in charge of employment numbers caused great gnashing of teeth. I have a different view than some of the current pundits. 

Those employment numbers have been suspect for some time. The past few years have seen monthly reports heralding better than expected hiring, with hardly any mention of prior months downward revisions. 

The aforementioned was a near monthly occurrence, with even a massive one time downward revision for several months prior... again without media comment. It was very hard to ignore the possibility of political intervention. And if not political intervention... then very lackluster data collection, of which improvement is much needed.

I should probably mention that many reports from the government are in constant revision stage. Contrary to public opinion... I consider the inflation reports to be the most accurate and reliable. The employment numbers being the least reliable. The rest fall in between those two, imo.

Week Ending Report-7-26-2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php 

Much was made of the -9.3% drop in Durable Goods from May, but the spin doctors overlooked the +16.5% rise for the previous month. Year to date from 2024, is up 7.9%. Probably why the spin didn't last very long. 

As for the petroleum sector, gasoline usage has fallen considerably on a 4 week moving average. Down -5.2% from year ago levels and -2.9% from last week. The inventory of gasoline slipped a bit, but the day's supply is increasing. 

Probably why pump prices are staying stagnant, compared to my last forecast. Not sure why the drop, which could be indicative of a slowing economy, although much of that data is contradictory. 

In any case, the sharp drop off is unexpected, at least to me.

Some meaningless thoughts...

The Late Show... I stopped watching the late show, early on in Colbert's tenure. His brand of humor did not match mine. Why the show is being canceled is beyond my realm of thought. Even if it were, I am not part of that important demographic.

Epstein files... I would have thought any Trump connections would have been exposed during his last term. Certainly during the Biden years. Perhaps the whole darn bunch have their names listed on... some yet to be released "file".

Clinton Saga... I am not a fan, but she is largely irrelevant, imho. It is good to know that most of the political back in forth is now focusing on days gone by. Maybe we will eventually move past all of this.

Or is the political news cycle a couple of decades behind?

Week Ending Report-7-19-2025

Several reports from the week, including...

CPI- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm

PPI- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm

Real Earnings- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm

Advance Retail- https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Petroleum- https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php

A brief snapshot of CPI, CPI-W, CPI-E, PPI...

A lot of pink on everything, but the PPI, which seems to have flattened out. The PPI forecast is a bit of upward movement over the next couple of months, but then descending. 

The Cost of Living Adjustment outlook, has edged upward...

The real earnings report, indicated a slippage in real earnings. 

The retail sales remains fairly flat, when factoring in inflation...

On the petroleum side, it would appear diesel prices are set to accelerate higher, while gasoline appears to be edging slightly higher.

In reality, the big story should have been the downward projections of the PPI, in the face of tariffs. 

That's about it, as I have nothing more to say.

Pump Prices heading up!!

Reviewed this weeks EIA report and observed the current status of inventories. 

Oddly, although domestic consumption is down from last year, the past couple of weeks has shown an increase in that consumption.

Checking the futures market, refinery operating rates, etc., it would certainly appear that prices will continue that upward trend, with gasoline easily rising another 4¢~7¢ and diesel jumping 9¢+.

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 19 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +8.4M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.9M Barrels; and Gasoline up 3.5M barrels. The SPR slid a meager -1K barrels. 

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Consumption of gasoline continues its slide, with year over year down -4.9% and now down -1.3% from last year's lows. 

Refinery operation slipped to a 4 week average of 85.3%, from last week's 4 wk. average of 86.7%

National pump prices, according to AAA, have risen +10.7¢ from last week. Current futures pricing, indicates a bit of upward trend developing. even though domestic consumption is slipping and inventories rising. This against a backdrop of lower refinery operation. 

We are still exporting some hefty quantities of gasoline. 

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I have distillates in the title, although not much change overall, except in the East Coast numbers, which is more Central Atlantic.

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So far... so good!

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 11 2023

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +19.0M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.1M Barrels; and Gasoline up 4.1M barrels. The SPR slid another -800K barrels. 

Consumption continues to drift lower on the four week average for gasoline.

Oddly, the refiner operating ratio slipped from 88.7% to 86.7%. There had been rumors of disruptions due to the winter storms, but those things are closely guarded secrets.

In any case, consumption has fallen for two consecutive weeks. It is -5.8% below this time last year. Again weather may have been a significant factor. 

National pump prices, according to AAA, have fallen -1.8¢ from last week. Futures popped higher today, but who knows what will happen tomorrow.

I would suggest pump prices are nearing the bottom. A lot depends on whether there is a recession and how deep it is.

Distillates edged up in the New England area...

Remarkably, the New England data improved from last week but is still below last year and... historical norms.

This improvement may or may not continue, as we are still three weeks away from Punxsutawney Phil telling us if spring is over or not.

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Jan. 5 2023

Habits, both good and bad, are hard to break, and so is doing this report for nearly the past 20 years. There is a reason I started it, but not sure there is a reason to continue. 

This week's EIA report.

Crude stocks went up +1.7M barrels, from last week; Distillates down -1.4M Barrels; and Gasoline slid -300K barrels. The SPR slid another -2.7M barrels.

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After all the ups and downs of inventories, the day's supply increased across the board. Which can only mean consumption tapped the brakes.

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Oddly, refiner operating ratio slipped from 92.7% to 88.7%. There had been rumors of disruptions, due to the winter storms, but those things are closely guarded secrets. 

In any case, it is clear consumption fell, after 2 weeks of gains. It is -7.2% below this time last year. Again weather may have been a big factor. 

National pump prices, according to AAA, have risen 12.6¢ from last week, and 18.9¢ the past 13 days. I would think some leveling off is in order, but what do I know?

Distillates continue to fall in the New England area...

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We're a long way from calling winter over, so that area is dangerously low, imho. It is currently lower than anytime the past 30 years, for end of December. Just saying. 

I have tagged politics, so here goes. I would comment on the Speaker funfest, but it would seem it is early in the ballgame. Don't compare this 9th vote to baseball. This is more like Cricket, which I don't understand and also goes for days and days. With nine days being the longest. 

C'mon guys and gals, you can break the record!!

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 29th 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks went up 718K barrels, from last week; Distillates up 283K Barrels; and Gasoline slid -3.1M barrels. The SPR slid another -3.5M barrels.

Inexplicably, gasoline consumption within the U.S., has risen for 2 consecutive weeks. This report is through 12-23, so the impacts of the winter storm would not be fully reflected in these numbers. Although there are people, such as myself, that made sure the tank was topped off.

The national average, per AAA, has risen +5.8¢ the past week. How much is due to the winter storm and refinery struggles... not really sure. There is a slight upward bias in gasoline pump prices.

Distillate stocks continue to slip in the New England region. Again, this data was pre blizzard and the blast of cold arctic air. 

A month ago, the news out of New England was dire, in regards to heating fuel and natural gas. 

On a side note, I was once an avid UK Wildcat BB fan, but slowly discontinued my allegiance, when the marketing major shifted the brand= to Cal's Cats. Last night, I decided to check out some twitter feeds about them and somehow the Twitter algorithm thinks I am once again an avid fan. Geez!

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 21st 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks slid -5.9 M barrels, from last week; Distillates slid -242K Barrels; and Gasoline increased +2.5M barrels. The SPR slid another -3.6M barrels.

Refining operation eased this past 4wk. average, although gasoline supplies increased. The loss seems to be in distillates. 

Gasoline consumption ticked up this week by 1.0% from last week after a month of declines. It is currently at -8.2% compared to same time last year. Gasoline, according to AAA, has declined -10.6¢ from last week. 

Diesel in New England, still remains on the low side and is declining from last week. This cold snap will change the numbers, imo. 

Not sure if gasoline prices will continue to slide, or when the draw on SPR numbers will stop, etc. 

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 14th 2022

Weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks rose 10.2 M barrels, from last week; Distillates increased another +1.3M Barrels; and Gasoline increased +4.5M barrels. The SPR slid -4.8M barrels.

Refining continues at a high rate of efficiency, as the inventory gasoline, distillates, etc. continued to grow. Even in spite of continued high exports of gasoline. Gasoline consumption slipped -9.5% from year ago levels on the 4 week average and another -1.8% from previous week's average, to a level of last February.

Pump prices continue to fall and might just make that $3 national average at Christmas. However, I may just fill up the tank this weekend, as I think the floor is near in regards to that national average, in my humble opinion. ($3.08? Which is 13¢ above my estimate last week)

The overall is in decent shape, year over year, but a couple of areas are still under stress. While I am not showing a graph of the significant drop in distillate consumption, it does raise the question of why is both gasoline and diesel consumption dropping so much in December, instead of the usual late January to February slump?

Along with that thought, is the impact energy has on the overall inflation picture and what happens when it bottoms and begins to rise again? But then, why is it falling so much at this point? Lower consumption? Great, but why?

I always hear about how the FED watches this report, or that report, etc. I found it odd, that no mention was made of the FED's own Median CPI. It was 7.0%, year over year, just like last month. NO CHANGE! Am I believe the FED creates a report, that they do not watch?

I have so many questions.

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Dec. 7th 2022

Another weekly EIA report.

Crude stocks fell another -5.1 M barrels, from last week; Distillates increased another +6.1M Barrels; and Gasoline increased +5.2M barrels.

SPR slipped -2M barrels since last week's estimate, but the Crude, Petroleum, Petroleum Products + SPR gained 4M barrels. 

Refining continues at a high rate of efficiency, as the inventory gasoline, distillates, etc. continued to grow. Even in spite of continued high exports of gasoline. Gasoline consumption slipped -7.8% from year ago levels on the 4 week average and -1.8% from previous week's average.

The national average for gasoline has slid -4.0% from last week and +1.5% above same time last year, which mirrors WTI crude from one year ago. 

Last week, I commented about my doubt of pump prices falling to the $3 level by Christmas. I was wrong and am happy about that incorrectness. I can now see it in the $2.95 nationally. The why is surprising to me, with consumption falling as fast as it is. Not sure what to make of that. 

Of course, my glass is half empty mindset, leads me to think bad thoughts. Best I can do, is hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Distillates and Diesel...

While there was some improvement, certain areas, such as New England... is not fully whole. No doubt the reason for this is being politicized, I am a bit wary of the motivations of behind the scenes actors... in regards to all this. Basically, A truth is not the same as the whole truth. A fact is not the same... as all the facts. 

Crude, Distillate, and Gasoline Inventories - Nov. 30th 2022

Another weekly EIA report.

In a nutshell, Crude stocks fell -12.5M barrels; Distillates increased +3.5M Barrels; and Gasoline increased +2.7M barrels.

Gasoline consumption is slowing and after a slight rise a few weeks back... is resuming the downward trend. The price at the pump is also falling, although exports are keeping the prices from falling any faster. (See above chart for gasoline imports/exports) 

I have been reading reports of the national average falling below $3 by Christmas. I can see an average of $3.15, but any more is doubtful, imo. 

On the other hand, some hysteria over more potential OPEC+ cuts, a sudden drop in the dollar, and whatever the EU is about to do... will cause big problems in the energy market. Yet the futures seems to be holding steady. 

My guess is hysterical headlines make for great click bait. 

Diesel and Gasoline, Nov. 23, 2022

 Another round of data from the EIA.gov...

Crude Inventories slipped -3.7M barrels, with distillates up +1.7M barrels and gasoline up +3.0M barrels. Prices did slip in all categories the past week.

Consumption slipped as well, after moving up two weeks straight.

Even distillate stocks edged up in all areas, except the left, er... west coast.

A lot seems to be hinging on December the 5th, and price caps. Not sure how that will work, or if it will work. It seems, it was telegraphed too far in advance and the opponent has been preparing a counter.

There is still 390.5M barrels of crude in the SPR, down -257.6M barrels from two years ago, or -39.7%. 

Of course, how much of that 390.5M barrels remaining is usable... is not fully known. It is stored in salt caverns and there will be some spoilage. 

Diesel and Gasoline, Nov. 16, 2022

Another week, another data dump from EIA.Gov.

Crude inventory slipped -5.4M barrels; Distillates up +1.1M barrels; Gasoline up +2.2M barrels. Prices for barrels of WTI, slid -3.65; Highway diesel eased -2¢ per gallon; residential heating oil was down -10.8¢ per gallon; and gasoline was down -3.4¢ per gallon. 

Gasoline consumption, seems to be heading up and possibly moving above the 3 month moving average at current pace. Why it is happening, is beyond my scope of knowledge, although the retail numbers from today, seem to support an increase in gasoline consumption. Maybe with cold weather, people are warming up their cars, before driving.

Diesel seem to still be an issue, as inventories remain low, especially in the Northeast.

I would suggest that areas other than the northeast, may slowly build, as agricultural usage should begin to ease with the bulk of crops being harvested. It should be noted the dry weather in many of these areas have accelerated harvest and the need for drying the crops down has been reduced. 

Not sure that is the reason for propane stocks rising, but works for me, as inventory is well above this time last year.

I did add politics as a tag, but I won't say anything until this election is finally over. Does anyone know when that will be. 😎